Bitcoin BTC$70,599.78 and the wider crypto market saw a notable price bounce on Friday after major economies announced joint efforts to boost oil supplies through the now-disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

BTC, the largest cryptocurrency, jumped to $70,800, up more than 1% on the day, extending its recovery from overnight lows under $68,900, according to CoinDesk data. Other major coins, including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL), saw smaller gains of less than 1%, lagging behind bitcoin.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 2% to $93.80, alongside similar losses in Brent, after Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan said they would take steps to stabilize energy markets and join collaborative efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In a joint statement issued by the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office, leaders of these nations condemned the attacks by Iran and urged it to halt its actions immediately.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil tankers and could release crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

With the Federal Reserve expressing heightened uncertainty on growth and inflation outlooks earlier this week, traders have scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts. That has left crypto and traditional risk assets largely at the mercy of oil price swings.

The latest drop in oil, though positive, doesn’t end the uncertainty, as military conflict in the Middle East continues. WTI remains near recent support at $92.00, still significantly above pre-war valuations.

“For now, WTI crude continues to hold what appears to be an increasingly important area of support. That level aligns well with prior highs and the short-term trend. As long as oil holds that support and the trend continues higher, it will likely maintain an upward bias,” Mott Capital Management said in an email to its subscribers.

The firm added that positioning in the oil options market suggests higher levels are possible.

Another market that bitcoin traders might want to watch is the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index.

The index closed below its pivotal 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Thursday – the first such instance since May last year – signaling a bearish shift in momentum. A potential strengthening of risk aversion in stocks could spill over into crypto and the wider financial markets.

TLDR:

• The Fed now projects only one rate cut for 2026, leaving Bitcoin and risk assets with limited near-term relief.
  
• Inflation forecasts have been revised upward to 2.7% for 2026, driven partly by rising oil and natural gas prices.
  
• The U.S. 30-year treasury yield is approaching 5%, raising the cost of capital and tightening global liquidity.
  
• Bitcoin remains caught between its identity as a store of value and a speculative asset in uncertain macro conditions.

Bitcoin continues to face mounting pressure as macroeconomic conditions grow increasingly unfavorable. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, sticky inflation, and rising treasury yields are tightening global liquidity conditions.

With only one rate cut now projected for 2026, risk assets are finding it harder to attract fresh capital. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are adding upward pressure on energy prices.

This mix of factors is reshaping investor sentiment and pushing capital toward safer, higher-yielding assets.

Fed’s Hawkish Tone Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently delivered a hawkish tone on the broader economic outlook. The central bank now projects only one rate cut for 2026.

The dot plot remains unchanged for now, offering little immediate relief for risk-sensitive markets. Powell did not explicitly raise the possibility of rate hikes, but that scenario has not been fully ruled out.

Inflation remains the central issue driving the Fed’s restrained approach to monetary policy. Projections have been revised upward to 2.7% for 2026, reflecting persistent price pressures across the economy.

The Fed expects further inflationary stress, partly tied to rising oil and natural gas prices. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling much of that energy-related surge.

Crypto analyst Darkfost_Coc noted that the Fed cannot act decisively while inflation remains sticky. This restraint leaves Bitcoin and other risk assets in a difficult position.

Without rate relief, borrowing costs stay elevated and investor appetite for risk remains constrained across markets.

At the same time, early signs of weakness are beginning to surface in the labor market. Economic growth is also slowing at a measured but noticeable pace.

Together, these trends are bringing stagflation risks back into broader financial discussions. Such an environment has rarely favored speculative assets, and Bitcoin is no exception.

Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery

As yields rise, the dollar is strengthening once again, creating a challenging backdrop for Bitcoin. This dynamic tends to tighten global liquidity and reduce capital flows toward higher-risk markets.

According to Darkfost_Coc, periods when the dollar and treasury yields become too strong consistently weigh on Bitcoin.

The U.S. 30-year yield is now approaching 5%, a key benchmark closely tied to mortgage lending. The 10-year yield is hovering near 4.30%, raising the overall cost of capital across markets. Higher borrowing costs make it more difficult to invest, finance operations, or take on leveraged positions.

If geopolitical tensions persist, elevated yields could attract large pools of capital seeking safer returns. Investors may shift funds into treasuries, which offer relatively attractive yields with minimal risk. This further drains the liquidity that would otherwise flow into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin still struggles to clearly define its role within the broader global financial system. It continues to occupy an uncertain space between a store of value and a speculative asset.

Until that identity solidifies, the current macro environment will keep limiting its ability to draw sustained capital.

The FBI has issued a warning about a fake token on the Tron blockchain that is impersonating the agency to trick users in a crypto phishing scam.

FBI’s New York Field Office issued a message on Thursday warning that scammers were sending tokens to users to siphon personal information under the pretence that the recipient’s wallet was “under investigation.”

Recipients of the token are redirected to a website where they are asked to complete an anti money laundering verification online “to avoid a total block on your assets.”

“FBI New York encourages users of the Tron blockchain network to exercise caution if they encounter a token purported to be from the FBI,” the agency said, advising users not to provide “any identifying information to any website associated with such [a] token.”

The token also comes with warnings that a user could face “a total block” on their assets if they fail to clear the verification process.

Once on the malicious website, victims are told that “current sanctions” can be avoided if users immediately comply with the request.

Similar tactics are common across other phishing scams where bad actors prey on urgency to extract sensitive information.

Scammers may be targeting users who are concerned about potential regulatory scrutiny and fear enforcement action.

According to data from Tronscan, the token was sent to at least 728 digital wallets, and many of these wallets held more than $1 million in USDT.

Those who have already shared information have been urged to file a report with the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center.

FBI developed their own crypto to bust scammers

While the FBI has confirmed that it has no involvement with the fake token, in the past, the agency developed a token to take down a market manipulation network.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the FBI launched NexFundAI during a sting called “Operation Token Mirrors.” The token was used to expose a wash trading ring involved in artificially inflating prices.

Meanwhile, phishing remains a consistent threat and has become one of the leading attack vectors in recent years, resulting in multi-million dollar losses across incidents.