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Bitcoin Slips Below $95K as Analysts Flag Make-Or-Break Zone

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Crypto markets are mostly lower today as momentum fades and analysts flag a key range for Bitcoin.

Crypto markets pulled back slightly on Friday morning, Jan. 16, giving up some recent gains after a short-lived rally earlier this week.

As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $94,700, down about 1.2% on the day, after reaching over $96,900 in the past 24 hours. Despite the downturn, BTC is still up over 4% on the week, rising out of the holiday doldrums.

Total crypto market capitalization fell to roughly $3.3 trillion, slipping 1.7% on the day.

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BTC 24-hour price chart. Source: CoinGecko

All of the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization were slightly lower on the day, with Dogecoin (DOGE) losing the most in 24 hours, down 4%.

Ethereum (ETH) is down 1.8% today, but still posting weekly gains of 5.5%, trading above $3,365 at press time.

BTC at Key Inflection Point

In a post on X today, glassnode analyst Chris Beamish said Bitcoin is nearing a “key inflexion point,” adding that the BTC price reclaiming the short-term holder cost basis “would signal that recent buyers are back in profit, typically a prerequisite for momentum to re-accelerate. “

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BTC long-term/short-term on-chain cost basis. Source: glassnode

At the same time, in another X post glassnode analysts pointed to growing activity on Ethereum, saying a sharp rise in month-over-month retention among new users is signaling a “wave of first-time wallets interacting with the network rather than activity driven only by existing participants.”

Mike Marshall, head of research at blockchain analytics firm Amberdata, said several signals still look constructive beneath the surface.

“Bitcoin’s price movement appears driven by a convergence of on-chain and market-structure signals,” Marshall said in commentary shared with The Defiant.

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Marshall also pointed to recent stablecoin minting, signs that ETF outflows are slowing, and derivatives markets showing accumulation, while warning that “portfolio rotations and broader macro uncertainty could introduce volatility” later in Q1.

Big Movers and Liquidations

Looking at the top-100 assets by market cap, privacy-focused cryptocurrency DASH led gains again, rising about 15% today, following its recent 50% rally. The next biggest gainer today is SKY, which is up roughly 4.8% on the day, according to CoinGecko.

On the downside, POL (ex-MATIC) dropped around 8% after its recent rally, making today’s biggest loser among the top-100 crypto assets.

Liquidations remained relatively muted over the past 24 hours with total crypto liquidations reaching roughly $239 million, per Coinglass data. Long positions made up $181 million, compared with $58 million in short ones.

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Bitcoin liquidations totaled about $62.5 million, followed by Ethereum at roughly $38 million, with another $31 million across altcoins.

ETFs and Macro Conditions

On Thursday, Jan. 15, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $100.2 million, bringing cumulative inflows to $58.2 billion, per data from SoSoValue.

Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs continued to see stronger demand, posting $164.4 million in net inflows on the day, while total net assets across spot Ethereum ETFs climbed to about $20.4 billion.

On the macro side, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year around 4.18% and the 30-year near 4.8%, as markets stayed on edge over geopolitical concerns, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed push to take control of Greenland, per CNBC.

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According to the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, import prices rose 0.4% between September and November, even as imported fuel prices fell 2.5% over the same period.

In terms of geopolitical moves, traders were also eyeing Canada’s deepening ties with China. Prime Minister Mark Carney said today that Canada is moving toward a “new strategic partnership” with Beijing, signaling a break from the U.S. on tariffs amid what he described as a shifting global order, Bloomberg reports.

“I’m extremely pleased that we are moving ahead with our new strategic partnership,” Carney said during meetings with China President Xi Jinping, framing the move as preparation for what he called a “new world order.”

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Crypto World

Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday

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Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday, pushing Brent crude above $116 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, climbed to roughly $102 per barrel.

The latest rise comes as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its fifth week with no signs of abating.

Oil Extends Its War-Fueled Rally 

Several escalatory developments over the weekend fueled the surge. President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could possibly seize Kharg Island, the terminal that handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

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The US president struck a mixed tone on diplomacy with Iran, saying he was “pretty sure” of making a deal with Iran but conceding that talks could still collapse.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that Tehran would “set them on fire” when American forces arrived and promised consequences for US-allied nations in the region. 

The oil price surge is far from over, according to market analysts, who warn that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive crude even higher.

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“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply,” Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan, said.

According to Bloomberg, US officials and Wall Street analysts have also begun discussing the possibility of crude reaching $200 per barrel.

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Asian Stocks Tumble, Crypto Feels the Pressure

The energy shock rippled across Asia. Google Finance data showed that Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell over 4.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 4.3% as import-dependent economies repriced risk.

The volatility has spread to crypto markets, with asset prices dipping early in the morning before rebounding. 

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“The market briefly crashed just now — ETH dropped below $1,940 and BTC fell below $65,000,” Lookonchain reported.

Oil above $100 per barrel continues to pressure risk assets by fueling inflation expectations and delaying anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The post Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Lido DAO Mulls $20M LDO Buyback to Boost Token Price

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Lido DAO Mulls $20M LDO Buyback to Boost Token Price

Lido’s decentralized autonomous organization is considering a one-off $20 million buyback of its governance token to address so-called price dislocation, which is at “historically depressed levels” relative to Ether, according to the DAO. 

The proposal, submitted Friday, seeks permission to swap 10,000 Lido Staked Ether (stETH) tokens, currently worth $20 million from the DAO’s treasury for Lido DAO (LDO), arguing that LDO is undervalued.

“This is not a routine fluctuation. It represents one of the most significant dislocations between LDO’s market price and its underlying protocol fundamentals in the token’s history.”

A token buyback of this size could boost the price of the token, which has fallen roughly 96% from its all-time high. In November, a Lido DAO member pitched an automated buyback mechanism for LDO to improve the token’s price. However, that proposal hasn’t been implemented.

LDO’s change in price relative to ETH since 2024. Source: Lido DAO

Lido DAO pointed out that LDO is trading at a steep discount to Ether (ETH) at a ratio of 0.00016, roughly 63% below its two-year median.

This is despite the protocol holding the top spot of the Ethereum liquid staking market, with a 23.2% share of staked Ether, according to Dune Analytics data. The protocol’s dominance has even been flagged as a centralization risk to the network in previous years.

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Share of Ethereum network validators. Source: Dune Analytics

Related: Ethereum builders propose ‘economic zone’ to tackle L2 fragmentation 

LDO is currently trading at $0.30, down 95.9% from its $7.30 high set in August 2021, according to CoinGecko data. LDO’s $255 million market cap makes it the 141st largest token by value at the time of writing.

“That dislocation is not justified by a proportional deterioration in protocol performance,” Lido DAO said. 

Lido DAO proposes buying stETH in batches

Lido DAO proposed buying up to 10,000 stETH in smaller batches of 1,000 to buy LDO. 

Lido DAO said it would use limit orders or adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to avoid market volatility. 

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