Bitcoin Spot, Futures Buyers Show Up But Is It Enough?

Bitcoin ETF selling overwhelmed markets again after last week’s $1.42 billion outflow followed the previous week’s $1.26 billion outflow. 

BTC’s subsequent fall to $72,500 raised concerns that the price would slip back into the $60,000 to $70,000 range that BTC was locked in during February through April, but Cointelegraph’s reporting showed spot volumes kicking in to defend the $70,000 support. 

BTC/USDT aggregated spot volumes. Source: Velo 

Given the sizeable ETF selling, BTC inflows to Coinbase and futures market liquidations, the spot CVD data above suggests these dip buyers are not dominant.

Bitcoin exchange inflows, Coinbase. Source: CryptoQuant

Open interest heatmap data, on the other hand, does show nearly $300 million of open interest concentrated in the yellow band representing $73,000 to $74,000, where traders appear to have opened new leveraged long positions.   

Open interest heatmap, seven-day lookback. Source: Hyblock

While ETF outflows and redemptions sync with next-day BTC inflows to Coinbase exchange, and the knock-on effect of this selling is occasional long liquidations in the futures market, Hyblock’s bid-ask ratio metric (set to 10% aggregate order-book depth) shows a modest bid-side dominant orderbook, reinforcing the view that traders view prices below $75,000 as discounted and are buying as a result. 

BTC/USDT bid-ask ratio (10% depth) turns positive. Source: Hyblock

The indicator ranges from -1 to +1, with values above zero indicating an increasing imbalance in the orderbook structure.

The current longs perps and spot buying activity have not been sustainably sufficient enough to reverse the downtrend, but it is helping to absorb the selling and put a floor (or support) beneath Bitcoin price. 

Related: US has seized nearly $1 billion in Iranian crypto, Treasury secretary says

Beyond the technicals, in the short-term, a fresh set of narrative catalysts and newsflow focused on a peace deal between the US and Iran, positive spot BTC ETF inflows, falling crude oil prices and perhaps a White House statement on possible new additions to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve are needed to trigger larger spot and futures positioning in BTC.