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Bitcoin Surges After US Jobs Beat as Fed Pause Odds Near 95%

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faced a volatile session as U.S. payrolls data surprised to the upside, complicating the path for the Federal Reserve and market risk appetite. After an early intraday spike toward the high $60,000s, the largest cryptocurrency retraced, leaving traders weighing whether a deeper pullback is coming or a temporary pause in risk-off sentiment is enough to support a rebound. The reaction came as the broader equity complex wobbled, with major indices trading in divergent fashion in response to the jobs release and the Fed’s likely response to it. The day’s price action underscores how macro news can quickly reframe crypto downside risk and the near-term technical setup.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin briefly spiked toward the $69,000 mark intraday before reversing, with the move followed by a pullback that extended losses through the session.
  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, well above the 55,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%.
  • Despite the strong jobs data, the signal for the Federal Reserve to hold rates at the March meeting persisted, supported by futures markets showing a high probability of a pause.
  • The S&P 500 inched higher early but then gave back the gains, while the Nasdaq Composite slid, illustrating mixed risk-asset responses to the same macro print.
  • Analysts and traders flagged a potential “slow bleed” scenario for BTC toward the sub-$60,000s or mid-$50,000s if buyers fail to reclaim key levels, with attention fixed on Friday’s CPI release for further clarity.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. A sharp intraday spike gave way to a renewed downward slope, signaling renewed anxiety about near-term downside risk.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The market is testing whether downside pressure can be contained above key support levels, with forthcoming inflation data likely to drive the next leg.

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Market context: The broader crypto environment remains sensitive to macro narratives—especially inflation trajectories and the likelihood of further monetary tightening or pauses—which shape liquidity and risk sentiment across digital assets.

Why it matters

The January employment report cemented a narrative in which a robust labor market reduces the near-term impulse for the Fed to cut rates, complicating the outlook for risk assets, including bitcoin. While stronger payrolls can intensify fears of higher-for-longer policy, the sheer resilience of the job market also mitigates the chance of a sharp recession, which can paradoxically support risk appetite in certain regimes. The market’s response in equities—modest gains in the S&P 500 that faded while tech-heavy indices retreated—reflects a nuanced equilibrium: traders are parsing whether macro strength translates into higher yields and tighter financial conditions, or whether cooling inflation signals will eventually embolden a broader risk-on posture.

Bitcoin’s price action over the session underscored those crosscurrents. The initial move higher suggested a renewal of demand, perhaps driven by the prospect of a Fed pause and the possibility of liquidity support from markets still navigating 2026’s macro landscape. Yet as the day evolved, the lack of follow-through on the upside and the re-emergence of selling pressure highlighted how quickly technical conditions can pivot on a single data release. For market participants, the takeaway is clear: macro prints will continue to define crypto volatility in the near term, even when the fundamental picture for blockchain technologies remains intact and the long-run adoption thesis remains intact.

Looking ahead, traders will be watching not only next week’s inflation data but also ongoing risk signals from both traditional markets and on-chain metrics. The interplay between macro cues and crypto-specific dynamics—such as exchange inflows, funding rates, and retail participation—will determine whether BTC stabilizes near current levels or tests critical supports in the low to mid-$60,000 range. The Fed’s eventual policy stance, as reflected in the FedWatch indicator and related market pricing, will remain a major driver, shaping whether risk assets get a sustained push or retreat into a risk-off regime.

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What to watch next

  • Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release to gauge inflation momentum and its impact on the Fed’s course.
  • The March FOMC decision and the probability of a rate pause, as reflected in futures markets.
  • BTC price action around key support levels near $64,000, $62,000, and the rumored $50,000 downside scenario.
  • Market breadth signals in equities and whether risk-on appetite improves or deteriorates in the wake of inflation data.
  • Any new official guidance from major market participants and notable traders regarding the balance of risk and potential upside catalysts for BTC.

Sources & verification

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics January nonfarm payrolls report showing 130,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate at 4.3%.
  • CME Group FedWatch Tool indicating high odds of a rate pause in March.
  • TradingView BTCUSD price charts capturing intraday spikes and retracements on the session.
  • Kobeissi Letter’s analysis on unemployment trends and the Fed’s expected stance.
  • Price context and reference points discussed in market commentary noting BTC’s potential low-$60k to mid-$50k scenarios and prior coverage of $69,000 significance.

Bitcoin volatility and the jobs data backdrop

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded with pronounced sensitivity to the day’s macro data, underscoring how quickly crypto markets respond to shifts in macro policy expectations. The price momentum was highly event-driven: a brisk move up toward the $69,000 area was followed by a swift reversal, dragging the session into negative territory as the day wore on. The early move appeared to reflect a tempered optimism around a potential pause in rate hikes, but the subsequent pullback suggested that investors are not yet prepared to embrace a renewed up-leg without more convincing evidence of durable demand.

The January nonfarm payrolls report delivered numbers well above expectations—130,000 jobs added against a forecast of 55,000—while the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. Such a strong labor market reduces the immediate pressure on the Fed to cut rates, implying a higher probability that policy normalization will proceed at a measured pace. In the near term, that translates to a cautious stance for crypto and other risk assets, even as the longer-term inflation trajectory remains a central question for market participants. The data fed into a narrative that a Fed pause would persist, a conclusion reflected by the CME FedWatch Tool’s readings that traders viewed the odds of a March pause as elevated, a signal that liquidity conditions may not tighten rapidly enough to derail risk appetite completely, but also that upside momentum in BTC would require a solid commitment from buyers at key price junctures.

Asset markets showed a mixed response. The S&P 500 edged higher in early trading before retracing, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped, highlighting a bifurcated risk environment where value and growth cohorts moved in different directions in response to the same macro release. Gold, often a proxy for macro uncertainty, also exhibited choppy behavior, briefly touching fresh February highs before trimming gains as traders weighed the likelihood of further volatility in the real economy. The nuance here is important: even with a robust January jobs report, the macro landscape remains unsettled, leaving markets to calibrate inflation expectations against the probability of a slower but still uncertain path for monetary policy.

Among traders, sentiment leaned toward caution. The Kobeissi Letter’s commentary framed the data as supportive of the view that the Fed would pause, a narrative that aligns with a broader market expectation of a softer near-term policy stance. Yet the absence of a decisive bounce in BTC underscored a critical point: macro strength does not automatically translate into immediate crypto upside, particularly when the price must contend with meaningful resistance around prior highs and the looming risk of a renewed downturn if buyers fail to reclaim and sustain momentum above critical levels. In this context, BTC’s journey from the intraday peak back toward sub-$70,000 territory epitomized the current tension between macro resilience and crypto-specific risk management.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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XRP Price Analysis: Critical $1.65 Level Tests Relief Rally While $0.90 Target Looms

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • XRP reached first relief target at $1.52 after RSI hit multi-year lows during last week’s selloff 
  • Critical $1.65 resistance zone will determine if XRP continues rally or drops toward $0.90 support 
  • Ripple partners with Aviva Investors to tokenize real-world assets on XRP Ledger throughout 2026 
  • Analysts warn against panic selling as XRP flirts with correction lows and potential bullish setup

 

XRP price action shows signs of relief following last week’s sharp decline that pushed technical indicators to extreme levels.

Market analysts track the $1.65 resistance zone as a critical threshold for the digital asset’s near-term direction. A failure at this level could open the door to targets as low as $0.90.

The current phase presents multiple scenarios for traders watching key support and resistance zones.

Critical Price Levels Define XRP’s Next Move

XRP has entered a Wave 4 relief phase after last Thursday’s massive selloff tested market sentiment. Technical analyst CasiTrades noted the decline pushed RSI to multi-year lows across trading platforms.

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The subsequent bounce has already reached the first Wave 4 target near $1.52. This price point coincides with the 0.382 retracement level and macro 0.65 fibonacci zone.

The market now approaches a decisive juncture at the $1.65 resistance area. This level represents the 0.5 retracement and macro 0.618 fibonacci extension.

The asset’s ability to flip this zone into support will determine the next directional move. Technical patterns suggest two distinct paths forward based on price behavior at current levels.

A rejection at $1.65 could trigger another wave down to lower support zones. CasiTrades outlined potential targets at $1.09 and approximately $0.90 in this scenario.

These levels would mark the completion of a corrective structure from recent highs. The analyst emphasized that RSI has reset enough to allow for such a move.

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However, the relief bounce offers an alternative bullish scenario for market participants. If XRP successfully reclaims $1.65 and holds it as support, buying pressure could increase.

Traders would then wait for confirmation through a back-test of this support level. The analyst cautioned against panic selling given the asset’s proximity to correction lows.

Ripple Partnership Adds Fundamental Support

Ripple announced a collaboration with Aviva Investors to tokenize real-world assets on XRP Ledger. Reece Merrick from Ripple shared the development, marking the first partnership with a European investment management firm.

The initiative will bring traditional fund structures to the blockchain throughout 2026. Aviva Investors cited the ledger’s speed, cost efficiency, and sustainability as key factors.

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The partnership addresses growing institutional interest in blockchain-based asset management solutions. Traditional finance firms continue exploring distributed ledger technology for operational advantages.

XRP Ledger provides the infrastructure necessary for large-scale tokenization projects. European investment managers show increasing willingness to adopt blockchain platforms.

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Asset tokenization represents a expanding sector within the digital asset industry. The collaboration aims to bridge institutional finance with blockchain utility at scale. Real-world assets moving onto public ledgers could drive long-term adoption metrics. This development provides fundamental support independent of short-term price fluctuations.

The announcement comes as XRP navigates technical correction levels on price charts. Fundamental developments often diverge from immediate market sentiment during volatile periods.

Long-term investors may view the partnership as validation of the ledger’s institutional appeal. Technical traders meanwhile focus on price action to determine entry and exit points.

 

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Strategy to issue more preferred stock to reduce volatility

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Strategy says BTC would need to fall to $8K to strain debt

Strategy is turning to preferred stock to keep buying Bitcoin while easing pressure from market swings.

Summary

  • Strategy is issuing more preferred shares to fund Bitcoin purchases.
  • The “Stretch” stock pays an 11.25% variable dividend and aims for price stability.
  • The move targets investors seeking crypto exposure with lower risk.

Strategy is expanding its use of preferred stock as it looks for new ways to fund Bitcoin purchases while reducing pressure from market volatility. 

The move comes as the company’s share price continues to closely track swings in the cryptocurrency market.

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A new approach to managing risk

In a Feb. 12 interview with Bloomberg, chief executive officer Phong Le said the company is offering more perpetual preferred shares to attract investors who want exposure to digital assets without extreme price changes. The product, known as “Stretch,” pays a variable dividend that is adjusted each month.

The current dividend rate stands at 11.25%. The structure is designed to keep the stock trading close to its $100 par value. This helps limit sharp price movements that are common in Strategy’s regular shares.

Preferred shares sit above common stock in the company’s capital structure but below debt. They usually offer a steady income and priority on dividends, while giving up voting rights. This makes them appealing to investors who value stability over rapid growth.

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Funding Bitcoin while limiting volatility

Over the past three weeks, Strategy raised about $370 million through common stock sales and another $7 million through preferred shares. The funds were used to buy more Bitcoin (BTC), pushing the company’s total holdings above 714,000 BTC, worth roughly $48 billion.

For years, Strategy’s business model has been built around using capital markets to accumulate Bitcoin. As a result, its stock often behaves like a leveraged version of the cryptocurrency. When Bitcoin rises, the stock tends to surge. When prices fall, losses are often amplified.

Bitcoin has dropped around 50% from its recent peak, which has weighed heavily on Strategy’s shares. This slowdown has made it harder for the company to rely only on common stock sales for funding.

Preferred stock offers another option. The steady dividend and price controls are meant to attract institutions such as pension funds, insurers, and banks. These investors often prefer predictable returns rather than high-risk exposure.

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Co-founder Michael Saylor has repeatedly said the company has no plans to sell its Bitcoin. Strategy intends to continue buying more each quarter, regardless of market conditions.

Analysts say preferred shares also strengthen the company’s balance sheet. Compared with convertible bonds, they reduce refinancing risk and limit sudden dilution for existing shareholders.

Strategy raised about $5.5 billion through several preferred stock offerings in 2025. The latest issuance continues that pattern, showing that the company sees long-term value in this funding model.

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Paxos Labs Launches Privacy-Preserving USAD Stablecoin on Aleo Network

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • USAD offers privacy-preserving transactions while maintaining regulatory oversight capabilities
  • Paxos leverages its established infrastructure to issue compliant stablecoins on Aleo’s platform
  • Circle previously partnered with Aleo for USDCx, showing competitive interest in privacy solutions
  • Aleo raised $200 million at $1.45 billion valuation from SoftBank, a16z, and Coinbase Ventures

 

Privacy-preserving USAD stablecoin has launched on the Aleo Layer 1 mainnet through a partnership between Paxos Labs and Aleo Network.

The collaboration introduces digital dollars to a zero-knowledge powered environment. The stablecoin offers privacy and programmability features for enterprise users.

Aleo previously partnered with rival issuer Circle to pilot USDCx. The launch reflects growing institutional demand for privacy-focused blockchain solutions.

Partnership Details and Technical Framework

Paxos Labs will issue USAD using its established infrastructure to meet regulatory oversight requirements. The stablecoin operates on Aleo’s zero-knowledge cryptography platform.

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The technology provides end-to-end encryption by default. The platform conceals participant identities, wallet addresses, and transaction amounts from public view.

Aleo COO Leena Im explained the stablecoin design incorporates Paxos’ issuance infrastructure. The system meets “oversight requirements while still protecting sensitive user information,” Im noted.

The balance between privacy and oversight represents a core technical achievement. Selective disclosure capabilities allow for regulatory compliance without compromising user confidentiality.

USAD supports traditional payment functions as well as advanced programmable applications. The stablecoin enables use cases difficult to execute on transparent blockchains.

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Target applications include discreet payroll processing, business-to-business payments, and anonymous decentralized finance activities. Furthermore, enterprises can embed trusted digital currency into their platforms.

Paxos Labs co-founder Bhau Kotecha emphasized the strategic value of the collaboration. “Working with Aleo, we are bringing digital dollars into an environment where privacy and programmability are built in from the start,” Kotecha said.

He added that enterprises gain “a way to embed money they can trust.” The executive expects more organizations to deploy custom assets on blockchain platforms.

Kotecha noted that stablecoins continue to impact traditional financial rails. He stated Aleo and its team are “already ahead of the curve” on this development.

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The trend toward programmable money reshapes financial infrastructure. Organizations increasingly value privacy-preserving transaction capabilities for commercial operations.

Market Context and Company Background

The launch occurs amid rising interest in institutional-grade privacy solutions for blockchain assets. Businesses want blockchain benefits without exposing sensitive commercial details on transparent networks.

Circle previously selected Aleo to develop USDCx, a privacy-focused version of its flagship token. The competitive landscape shows multiple issuers exploring privacy-preserving stablecoin technology.

Paxos has established experience in the stablecoin sector through partnerships with major platforms. The company previously issued stablecoins for PayPal and Binance.

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Moreover, Paxos plays a role in the Global Dollar consortium. The USDG initiative includes Anchorage Digital, Bullish, Kraken, OKX, Robinhood, and World.

Aleo Network launched its mainnet in September 2024 after several years of development. The Layer 1 project raised $200 million in a 2022 Series B funding round.

The company achieved a valuation of $1.45 billion during the financing. SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 and Kora Management co-led the investment.

The project has attracted backing from prominent investors across the blockchain ecosystem. Notable supporters include a16z, Softbank, Coinbase Ventures, Samsung Next, and Tiger Global.

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The investor roster demonstrates confidence in zero-knowledge technology applications. Aleo’s platform aims to enable privacy-focused blockchain solutions for enterprise adoption.

 

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Thailand Approves Bitcoin For Derivatives Trading Markets

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Thailand Approves Bitcoin For Derivatives Trading Markets

Thailand’s government on Tuesday approved the Finance Ministry’s proposal allowing digital assets to be used as underlying assets in the country’s derivatives and capital markets.

The move aims to modernize Thailand’s derivatives markets in line with international standards, strengthen regulatory oversight and investor protection, and position itself as a regional hub for institutional crypto trading, the Bangkok Post reported.

The country’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will amend the Derivatives Act to enable these new asset classes, which include Bitcoin (BTC) and carbon credits. 

“The decision to formally recognize digital assets, including cryptocurrencies and digital tokens […] reflects a growing understanding that digital assets are no longer merely speculative instruments, but an emerging asset class with the potential to reshape the foundations of capital markets,” said Nirun Fuwattananukul, chief executive of Binance Thailand.

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He added that it was a “watershed moment” for the country’s capital markets, sending a “strong signal” that Thailand is positioning itself as a “forward-looking leader” in Southeast Asia’s digital economy.

Strengthening crypto recognition for investors

Thailand is targeting wealthy institutional investors as it expands its crypto ambitions. The move also aligns with the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s plans to introduce Bitcoin futures and exchange-traded products in 2026. 

Related: Thailand plans crypto ETF rules as institutional interest increases

SEC secretary-general Pornanong Budsaratragoon said the move will “strengthen the recognition of crypto as an asset class, promote market inclusiveness, enhance portfolio diversification, and improve risk management for investors.”

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Still no crypto payments in Thailand

Retail trading remains popular in Thailand, with the Kingdom’s largest exchange, Bitkub, seeing daily volumes of $65 million, according to CoinMarketCap.

However, the central bank has outlawed crypto payments, and consumer stablecoin use remains restricted. 

The government launched an app in August for short-term tourists to convert crypto to local currency, but users must undergo stringent Know Your Customer (KYC) and customer due diligence checks, and usage remains restricted to government-approved outlets. 

Thailand launched a campaign in January against so-called “gray money,” targeting crypto as part of an effort to combat money laundering. 

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