Bitcoin Surges Past Gold and S&P 500 Following Major Global Disruptions, Research Reveals

Key Takeaways

• Research from Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates that Bitcoin outperforms both gold and S&P 500 during 60-day periods following significant global disruptions
• Following Trump’s tariff announcement in 2025, Bitcoin surged 24% compared to gold’s 8% gain and S&P 500’s 4% increase
• Throughout the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has climbed 2.2% while gold declined 11% and S&P 500 dropped 4.4%
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $1.32 billion during March, contrasting sharply with gold ETFs’ $2.92 billion in withdrawals
• Industry analyst James Seyffart predicts Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately exceed gold ETFs in total assets

Research conducted by Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin consistently delivers superior performance compared to gold and the S&P 500 index during the two-month periods following significant global disruptions.

The analysis was spearheaded by Rony Szuster, serving as research director at Mercado Bitcoin. His research team examined 60-day performance windows after various economic upheavals and geopolitical conflicts, encompassing events such as the COVID-19 pandemic emergence and U.S. trade policy escalations.

Following the Trump administration’s comprehensive tariff rollout in April 2025, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 24% appreciation during the subsequent 60 days. Meanwhile, gold managed an 8% increase, and the S&P 500 recorded only a 4% advance during the identical timeframe.

This performance pattern emerged similarly at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020. Bitcoin achieved a 21% gain, significantly outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.

Szuster cautioned against premature assessments of Bitcoin’s crisis response. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he remarked.

He clarified that market participants frequently liquidate holdings rapidly during crises to secure liquidity, which can temporarily pressure even traditionally defensive assets.

Bitcoin Maintains Positive Momentum Amid Middle East Tensions

This established pattern appears to be repeating during the current U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, advancing from roughly $65,800 to $67,300.

Gold, conventionally regarded as a crisis hedge, has experienced an approximately 11% decline during this period. The S&P 500 has retreated 4.4%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2022.

Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin emerged as the top-performing asset throughout the previous decade, notwithstanding its characteristic volatility.

Bitcoin ETFs Capturing Market Share From Gold Funds

ETF specialist James Seyffart indicated during an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds may eventually overtake gold ETFs in aggregate assets under management.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He highlighted Bitcoin’s multiple functions including digital gold status, value preservation, portfolio diversification tool, and growth-oriented investment.

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he stated.

Current investment flow patterns support this evolving market sentiment. Throughout March, gold ETFs domiciled in the United States experienced net redemptions totaling $2.92 billion. During this same interval, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net contributions of $1.32 billion.

The premier U.S. gold ETF witnessed a single-day outflow of $3 billion on March 4, representing the largest daily redemption in more than two years.

Both asset classes have declined over the trailing 30-day period. Bitcoin has retreated approximately 8% while gold has fallen around 8.25%, indicating parallel price movements despite divergent ETF activity.

In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated in their relative performance leadership.