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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

An analyst warns Bitcoin could revisit ~$38k if past 70% drawdown patterns repeat, while others argue deeper institutional flows may cap the correction nearer 55%–60%.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade under bearish pressure as analysts debate the potential depth of the current correction, with one market observer projecting the cryptocurrency could fall to $38,000 based on historical drawdown patterns.

Bitcoin could fall to the $38k range: analyst

The cryptocurrency has broken below key support levels and extended its decline as part of a corrective phase that began after Bitcoin reached its peak in October 2025, according to market data.

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A crypto analyst known as Sherlock posted an analysis on social media platform X examining Bitcoin’s historical bear market drawdowns and their progression over time. The analysis noted that Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle experienced a drawdown of approximately 93% from peak to trough, representing the largest correction in the asset’s history to date.

Subsequent bear markets showed progressively smaller declines, according to the data cited. The 2015 cycle saw a drawdown of about 86%, followed by 84% in 2018 and approximately 77% during the 2022 bear market.

The analyst projected that if this pattern continues, the current cycle could see a drawdown of around 70% from the all-time high, which would place Bitcoin’s bottom near $38,000.

The projection generated significant engagement on X, with some market participants suggesting that increased institutional involvement and market reflexivity could limit downside risk. One response argued that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, the next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60% rather than 70%.

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Sherlock responded that reflexivity can amplify downside moves as well as rallies, cautioning traders against attempting to time purchases at specific bottom targets.

Bitcoin was trading at levels not seen since October 2024, according to data from CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency last traded around current price levels in October 2023, during the early stages of the previous bull market.

The asset has rebounded from an intraday low but remains under pressure as market participants assess whether the corrective phase has concluded.

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Can you still mine Bitcoin on a PC in 2026? Here is the reality

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Can you still mine Bitcoin on a PC in 2026? Here is the reality

Can you still mine Bitcoin on a PC in 2026? Here is the reality

Mining Bitcoin on a desktop in 2026 may sound simple, but is it profitable? Do rising network difficulty and energy costs mean the end of PCs as Bitcoin mining equipment?

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Circle (CRCL) shares continued their rally on Monday

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Circle (CRCL) shares continued their rally on Monday

Already on a tear ahead of the war in Iran, Circle (CRCL) might be an unlikely beneficiary of the conflict.

The stock rose 10% on Monday, outperforming other crypto-linked equities, with the shares now up by 86% over the past month, though they remain sharply lower since their peak post-IPO frenzy last summer.

Japanese bank Mizuho said part of the Circle rally reflects the jump in oil prices following the escalation in Middle East tensions. Higher crude prices could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Other things being equal, stablecoin issuers are thought to benefit from higher interest rates as that means higher yields on their invested dollars.

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Indeed, oil prices have surged since hostilities erupted in the Gulf, with WTI crude up roughly 35% since Feb. 28. Higher energy prices tend to fuel inflation and can limit central banks’ ability to cut interest rates.

Positioning has surely played a role as well.

While the company reported solid growth in USDC supply in its fourth-quarter earnings, analysts say the magnitude of the move likely reflected a crowded short trade ahead of the release.

“The magnitude of the move wasn’t purely about the headline numbers. Positioning was the real catalyst,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

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According to his data, hedge funds had accumulated sizable bearish bets ahead of the report. That setup created what Thielen described as a “high-probability short squeeze rather than a fundamental re-rating.”

Short interest currently stands at about 13% of the float, equivalent to roughly two days to cover, according to FactSet data.

Read more: Circle moves $68 million in just 30 minutes by using its own stablecoin for internal payments

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Blockchain.com Expands Crypto Trading Platform to Ghana

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Blockchain.com Expands Crypto Trading Platform to Ghana

Crypto brokerage company Blockchain.com is expanding into Ghana as part of a broader push to grow its presence across Africa, following rapid user growth in Nigeria over the past year.

The company said it plans to offer Ghanaian users access to its trading platform as it builds out regional infrastructure and explores additional African markets.

The expansion follows strong growth in Nigeria, where the company launched retail operations last year and reported more than a 700% increase in brokerage transaction volume. According to the company, the most traded assets on its platform in the country have been Bitcoin (BTC), Tether (USDT) and Tron (TRX).

The company said Ghana has also seen rising activity on its platform ahead of the formal launch, with active users increasing 140% over the past year and transaction volumes climbing 80%.

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“We are actively collaborating with Ghanaian officials and regulators to help build a regulatory framework and have already established local compliance representation in Ghana,” a Blockchain.com spokesperson said.