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Bitcoin Volatility Hits 100% Ahead of $2.6B Options Expiry

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Bitcoin Expiring Options

More than $2.6 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, a development that could reshape short-term price dynamics as traders unwind hedges and reposition.

The event comes amid elevated volatility, defensive positioning, and growing evidence that institutional participants are actively hedging downside risk.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Could Trigger Volatility as $2.6 Billion in Contracts Settle

Data from derivatives markets shows Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the expiry, with roughly $2.2 billion in notional value tied to contracts. Ethereum represents an additional $419 million, bringing the combined total to more than $2.6 billion.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,686, significantly below its max pain level of $80,000, the price at which the greatest number of options would expire worthless.

Total open interest stands at 33,984 contracts, including 21,396 calls and 12,588 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.59.

Bitcoin Expiring Options
Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading around $1,905, also below its $2,400 max pain level. Total open interest stands at 219,034 contracts, with call open interest of 113,427 and put open interest of 105,607.

The put-to-call ratio of 0.93 suggests a more balanced, yet still cautious, positioning compared with Bitcoin.

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Ethereum Expiring Options
Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

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The gap between spot prices and max pain levels suggests that option sellers could benefit if prices remain suppressed into expiry. Meanwhile, traders holding directional bets may face losses if markets remain range-bound.

Notably, today’s expiring options are significantly lower than the $8.8 billion contracts that settled last Friday, because the January 30 event was for the month.

Institutions Hedge as Volatility Climbs

Nevertheless, analysts at Greeks.live say derivatives markets are showing clear signs of stress and repositioning, with volatility rising sharply and traders moving to protect portfolios.

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“The $60,000 range [for Bitcoin] represents the consolidation zone prior to the Trump rally, where support remains relatively strong. Should a rapid dip occur in the short term, it may present a buying opportunity,” they wrote.

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According to the analysts, options data indicate institutions and large players are urgently hedging and placing bets.

Bitcoin’s current-month implied volatility (IV) has surged to 100%, doubling since the start of the year, while the main contracts’ IV has also breached 50%, climbing 15% over two weeks.

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With skew at a two-year low, the experts say options market structure is now entirely dominated by bearish sentiment, though some lottery-style buying of deeply out-of-the-money options has emerged.

“The market currently exhibits excessive panic, and conditions for a sustained BTC crash remain insufficient. Rapid risk-off liquidation could actually facilitate a market rebound,” Greeks.live analysts wrote.

Indeed, the market is in panic mode, and with good reason, as the Bitcoin price steadily edges toward the $60,000 psychological level.

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The surge in implied volatility to 100% highlights the scale of uncertainty currently priced into Bitcoin markets, reflecting expectations of larger-than-normal price swings.

Expiry Could Reset Market Flows

Elsewhere, Deribit analysts note that options positioning is clustered around key strike levels, which may be influencing price behavior ahead of expiry.

“With protection demand already increasing and volatility repriced, this expiry could act as a short-term reset in dealer hedging flows. Expiry may remove positioning-related ‘gravity’ around big strikes, so price behavior after 08:00 UTC may differ from the days leading into expiry,” Deribit analysts stated.

The options expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit. If those dynamics play out, markets could see increased volatility immediately after expiry as hedging flows unwind and liquidity conditions shift.

While bearish sentiment currently dominates derivatives positioning, panic-driven markets can sometimes produce sharp rebounds, particularly if large liquidations clear excess leverage.

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Katana (KAT) price outlook following Upbit and Bithumb listings

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A trader analyzes a financial price chart on a smartphone while multiple market charts display on monitors in the background.
Zcash Price Outlook
  • Katana (KAT) gains momentum from Upbit and Bithumb listings with KRW pairs.
  • Katana Perps launch adds derivatives and deeper market utility.
  • Traders should watch the support at $0.014 and the immediate resistance at $0.016.

Katana (KAT), the native token of the Katana Network, has seen an extraordinary 53% price surge today, largely fueled by major cryptocurrency exchange listings.

Katana Network price chart

Upbit and Bithumb, two of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, have added KAT, opening up direct KRW trading pairs for the token.

These listings have given Katana greater visibility in a market known for active retail participation.

South Korean investors often respond quickly to new token listings, and the addition of KRW trading pairs makes it easy for traders to engage with KAT.

This kind of exposure can amplify buying pressure and lead to sharp price moves, especially when combined with already strong market momentum.

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The recent surge has also coincided with extremely high trading volumes.

KAT’s daily turnover has been several times its earlier average, signalling strong interest from traders and speculators.

Sustained volume is crucial for maintaining momentum. If volume remains high, KAT is likely to continue testing local highs.

Conversely, a sudden drop in trading activity could lead to sharp pullbacks.

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Adding to the bullish narrative, Katana recently acquired IDEX to launch a native perpetual futures platform called Katana Perps.

By integrating derivatives trading directly into the ecosystem, Katana can capture more trading activity within its own network.

This move also brings professional liquidity providers and market makers into the token’s orbit, creating a more stable and deeper market.

Technical outlook

Overall, KAT is in a high-momentum phase driven by both exchange listings and real product development.

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From a technical analysis perspective, KAT is currently hovering near its recent local high, and the immediate support level to watch is $0.014.

Holding above this level would suggest that bullish momentum remains intact and could pave the way for a retest of the local high around $0.016.

But if this support fails, traders should anticipate a move toward the next key support near $0.012.

Volume remains a crucial indicator in this environment.

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Sustained daily volume above $100 million would confirm strong trader interest and reduce the likelihood of a sudden correction.

On the other hand, if volume drops below $50 million, it could signal that momentum is fading and that a pullback may be imminent.

The combination of exchange listings, high trading volumes, and a new derivatives platform provides KAT with both momentum and structural growth potential.

However, traders should be aware that these factors create opportunities but also increase the risk of sharp swings if interest wanes.

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Bitcoin Slips as Geopolitical Signals Shift Bitcoin Falls 1%

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin Slips as Geopolitical Signals Shift

  • Bitcoin drops 1% as Trump signals faster end to US-Iran conflict timeline
  • BTC trades near $70,700 while volatility rises amid geopolitical shifts
  • Oil prices climb, offsetting crypto gains as tensions remain unresolved
  • Iran rejects ceasefire terms, adding pressure to global financial markets
  • Crypto derivatives show weakening momentum ahead of major options expiry

Bitcoin declined 1% during early Thursday trading, reflecting uncertainty from evolving geopolitical developments. The asset traded at $70,712, showing limited momentum within a narrow daily range. Meanwhile, traders reacted to reports of a potential shift in US foreign policy direction.

The US administration signaled an intention to shorten the ongoing conflict with Iran. This stance introduced mixed expectations across financial markets and increased short-term volatility. As a result, Bitcoin failed to sustain earlier gains despite recent bullish projections.

At the same time, trading volumes remained subdued, indicating weaker participation in the current market phase. Market activity reflected hesitation, especially as external risks continued to dominate sentiment. Consequently, Bitcoin moved sideways with a slight downward bias.

Oil Prices Rise as Conflict Dynamics Evolve

Oil prices moved higher as geopolitical tensions continued to influence supply expectations. The upward movement erased some gains previously seen in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This shift highlighted the inverse reaction between commodities and digital assets.

Reports indicated that the US aimed to conclude the conflict within a defined timeframe. However, Iran rejected proposed ceasefire conditions and introduced its own demands. These developments prolonged uncertainty and supported oil price strength.

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Additionally, the proposed conditions included sanctions removal and expanded regional control measures. Such demands complicated negotiations and extended the timeline for resolution. Therefore, energy markets maintained upward pressure amid unresolved tensions.

Derivatives Market Signals Weakening Momentum

Bitcoin derivatives data showed declining open interest over recent hours, signaling reduced market conviction. This drop aligned with broader uncertainty across financial markets. As a result, traders adjusted positions ahead of key expiry events.

Options data indicated that over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts approach expiration. This large volume created expectations of heightened volatility in the near term. Consequently, short-term price movements remained sensitive to external triggers.

Meanwhile, projections from institutional analysts suggested a potential long-term upside for Bitcoin. However, current market behavior reflected caution due to geopolitical risks. Therefore, near-term sentiment remained mixed despite optimistic forecasts.

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Background and Broader Context

The US administration aimed to balance foreign policy priorities with domestic agendas. Reports indicated a focus on upcoming elections and legislative initiatives. This shift influenced decisions related to the conflict timeline.

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At the same time, global markets responded quickly to any signals of escalation or de-escalation. Digital assets, commodities, and equities showed increased correlation during this period. As a result, geopolitical developments continued to shape market direction.

Overall, the situation remained fluid, with negotiations still uncertain and conditions unresolved. Market participants reacted to each update, causing frequent price adjustments. Consequently, volatility persisted across both traditional and digital asset classes.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Stares Down Recession as BlackRock CEO Joins Oil Price Warnings

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Bitcoin Stares Down Recession as BlackRock CEO Joins Oil Price Warnings

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly bet on the US entering recession in 2026.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin could face a new challenge in the form of its first recession after the COVID-19 crash.

  • US recession odds surge as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns over oil prices.

  • Bitcoin’s high correlation with “extremely oversold” stocks continues.

Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%

Data highlighted this week by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shows recession odds nearing 50%.

Bitcoin’s next bull run could come courtesy of a US economic downturn, and market participants see the latter as more and more likely this year.

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“Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%,” Adler noted on X.

Prediction traders agree, with US recession odds reaching 36% on Kalshi — the highest reading since September 2025.

US recession odds for 2026 (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

The US-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices lie at the heart of the surge. Recent claims by both sides about dialogue to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have caused confusion throughout risk-asset markets.

“That’s keeping upside pressure on oil prices, which is recently crossing a key threshold historically associated with recession,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic said that oil jumping 50% above its long-term trend, a phenomenon now playing out, “has been seen before or during nearly every recession over the past 50 years.”

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“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more,” it added.

Oil price chart with recessions marked. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Major players echo those concerns, including Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.

“We’ll have a global recession,” he told the BBC this week about the consequences of Iran staying a “threat” to the global economy, even if the war itself ended.

Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks

Bitcoin has had little experience of recession in its lifespan of less than 20 years.

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Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

In 2020, a US recession from February to April preceded a period of major BTC price upside after BTC/USD initially joined risk assets in a global crash in March.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks has become stronger this year, potentially increasing the potential for a relief bounce.

“While the uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for monetary are broadly weighing across the market, conditions are very favorable to see at least a short-term rally unfold,” Mosaic commented. 

“Various measures of investor sentiment and positioning are pointing to excessive bearishness in the market while breadth metrics are extending to extremely oversold levels.”

S&P 500 chart. Source: Mosaic Asset Company