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Bitcoin Whipsaws Around $70K as Trump Says There’s ‘Nothing Left’ to Hit in Iran

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BTCUSD Mar 11. Source: TradingView


The other reason behind BTC’s latest volatile session could be linked to the recently released CPI numbers for February.

US President Donald Trump continues to comment on the quickly escalating tension in the Middle East, suggesting once again that the war could be over soon.

Bitcoin’s price experienced immediate volatility after his remarks became viral on social media.

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This is Trump’s second similar claim in the past few days, after he noted on Monday that the war “is very complete, pretty much.” However, his statements are not supported by some country officials as well as its partner in this case, Israel.

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Walter Bloomberg’s report indicated that the two countries plan “at least two more weeks of strikes.” Additionally, the situation lastly escalated after the US started reporting that Iran had put mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US military has destroyed at least 16 mine-laying boats in the region, but officials have asserted that “it’s unclear how many mines Iran has deployed.”

Bitcoin traded at $69,200 before Trump’s statement went live, but skyrocketed by almost two grand instantly. Although it was stopped at $71,100, it still trades above $70,000 as of press time.

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There’s another possible reason behind BTC’s volatility. As reported a few hours ago, the US CPI data for February was released, and it matched expectations. However, bitcoin remained relatively calm in the first 90 minutes after the news went live, so Trump’s remarks on the war seem to have a more profound impact.

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BTCUSD Mar 11. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Mar 11. Source: TradingView

 

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Crypto World

Pro Traders Anticipate Low Odds of a Bitcoin Rally Toward $78,000

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Pro Traders Anticipate Low Odds of a Bitcoin Rally Toward $78,000

Key takeaways:

  • Professional traders remain cautious, pricing low odds for a Bitcoin breakout to $78,000 despite recent ETF inflows.

  • US and Israel-Iran war and soft US labor data offset momentum in Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin options: 17% chance of breaking $78,000

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $70,000 mark again on Wednesday. However, repeated failed attempts to break above $74,000 over the last five weeks have fueled skepticism. The ongoing US and Israel-Iran war, coupled with disappointing US labor numbers, has only added to the cautious outlook.

Traders are now evaluating whether recent inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signal an imminent bullish breakout.

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors

While US-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $414 million in net inflows between Monday and Tuesday, this was insufficient to offset the $576 million in net outflows recorded the previous Thursday and Friday. 

Data from the derivatives market suggests that professional traders are skeptical of a significant rally before the end of the month.

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Bitcoin call options for March 27 at Deribit. Source: Deribit by Coinbase

Bitcoin call options on Deribit for March 27, which target a $78,000 strike price, traded at $704 on Wednesday. This pricing indicates that whales and market makers see less than a 17% chance of Bitcoin gaining roughly 12% from its current levels.

This cautious outlook is also visible in the futures market, where demand for leveraged long positions remains stagnant.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized premium (basis rate) for monthly Bitcoin futures has stayed below the 4% neutral threshold. Notably, this metric failed to shift even after a 16% four-day rally that peaked with a retest of $74,000 on March 4.

Current onchain and derivatives data point toward indifference rather than an expectation of a sharp crash.

Economic outlook offsets institutional BTC inflows

Professional traders appear wary of sustained BTC price momentum, largely due to a worsening global economy.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said that investors are far more focused on how the conflict feeds into inflation, according to Yahoo Finance.

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Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt wrote on Monday that the $25 oil price gain essentially offsets the fiscal benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to CNBC.

McCourt added that after the Gulf War in 1990 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it took about six months for oil prices to get back to where they were before.

The 92,000 job positions cut in the US during February, announced on Friday, vastly disappointed analysts, as consensus anticipated a 55,000 increase. Sentiment further deteriorated on Monday after JPMorgan reportedly reduced the value of private credit loans made to software firms, according to Financial Times.

Source: X/gumsays

Regardless of the economic outlook, yield products revolving around Strategy (MSTR US) shares are becoming increasingly supportive for Bitcoin’s price. The company announced a record high daily average price and trading volume, offering opportunities to issue at-the-market share offerings and use the proceeds to buy additional spot Bitcoin positions.

Related: Price predictions 3/11: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, BCH, HYPE, XMR

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X user “gumsays” said that Strategy Variable Rate Perpetual (STRC US) adoption would lead to Strategy buying billions worth of Bitcoin per week.

The analysis added that a potential series of ETF inflows could result in sustained institutional demand. Therefore, traders will likely have to wait until after March for Bitcoin to break $78,000.