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Bitcoin’s Price Is Running the Same Playbook That Led to a 400% Surge But There’s a Catch

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Bitcoin's Price Is Running the Same Playbook That Led to a 400% Surge But There's a Catch


If history repeats, bitcoin could easily go above $300,000.

Popular analyst Merlijn The Trader outlined in a recent post on X that bitcoin’s current setup resembles, to a large extent, its market behavior in late 2022 when the asset actually skyrocketed by triple digits from bottom to top.

To even have the theoretical chance of doing so, though, Merlijn outlined the key level BTC has to hold.

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385% Surge in the Making?

His analysis noted that bitcoin had already run this playbook over three years ago, which is evident from the descending compression and sweep buy liquidity. He believes this setup will trap late sellers and BTC’s price will eventually reverse upon its conclusion.

Merlijn explained that the last time this happened, BTC’s price skyrocketed from $15,000 to $73,000. A similar price surge of 385% would send the cryptocurrency flying to well over $300,000.

Obviously, such a scenario is hard to envision now and might sound like a stretch, but Merlijn indicated that BTC could reignite a highly impressive rally as long as it holds the key $65,000 level. If it doesn’t, then it would continue the liquidity sweep phase.

He doubled down in a subsequent post that every major BTC cycle had started with a bear trap. In previous examples, such as the massive runs in 2013, 2016, and 2020, the price gains were quite spectacular – 24,000%, 6,300%, and 842%, respectively.

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The analyst noted that the pattern doesn’t change as fear is always the first phase of the rally. And, as reported recently, fear has dominated the crypto market for a few consecutive months.

Still Bear Cycle

In the meantime, Doctor Profit, among the most well-known crypto analysts who have been calling for this correction for months, acknowledged BTC’s recent pump to $74,000. However, he argued that this is likely to be a short-term upside move, before “we see another downturn” to new lows.

The cryptocurrency was indeed rejected at $74,000 for the second time in the past 10 days or so, and now struggles to remain above $70,000.

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BTC Wobbles at $70K as France Deploys Ships to Hormuz and Trump Rejects Peace Deal Attempt (Report)

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What On-Chain Metrics Say About Bitcoin's (BTC) Market Reset


Meanwhile, Russia reportedly became the first country to send aid to Iran since the war began.

Bitcoin’s price moves continue to be quite muted despite the most recent developments on the rapidly increasing Middle East tension. After today’s big strikes against a key Iranian island, Trump urged numerous countries to send military ships to defend the oil export through the Strait of Hormuz, and France was among the first to respond positively.

At the same time, Oman officials said they tried to broker a peace deal between the US and Iran, but to no avail.

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France Sends Ships

CryptoPotato reported earlier on Saturday that the US military carried out a targeted operation against Iran’s Kharg Island, which the POTUS described as “the most powerful bombing raids in Middle East history.” However, he added that the US intentionally did not attack any oil infrastructure but threatened to do so if Iran interferes in any way with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hours later, Trump urged other countries, including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK, to send “Warships” to the region to ensure the Strait remains open and safe. Reports from minutes ago suggested that France concurred with the US President’s message, sending 10 warships to the region. However, the UK has refused to deploy any military aircraft carriers as of press time.

In a separate development on the matter, The Kobeissi Letter reported that Russia has become the first nation to aid Iran in some official way after the war began, sending 13 tons of medical aid.

No Peace Deal Yet

Another report that just came out indicated that officials from Oman have “reached out to the US in an attempt to broker a peace deal with Iran,” but the US President declined.

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Some of the details on the matter suggest that Oman has tried “multiple times” to open a line of communication, but the White House was “not interested.” According to a cited senior official from the Trump administration, the President is “focused on pressing ahead with the war.”

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Bitcoin’s price continues to be unaffected by these developments, trading above $70,000 as of press time. However, the asset has historically dumped after most financial markets open on late Sunday and early Monday.

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Iran war cancels crypto events and hits multi-million dollar Formula 1 partnerships

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Iran war cancels crypto events and hits multi-million dollar Formula 1 partnerships

The ongoing war in the Middle East hasn’t just disrupted the flow through the Strait of Hormuz, but it has also hit a plethora of high-profile business events in the region, including major crypto conferences.

TOKEN2049 Dubai, one of the largest crypto conferences in the world, will not take place this year. Organizers said the event, originally scheduled for late April, has been postponed to April 21–22, 2027, due to ongoing uncertainty in the region.

The conference typically attracts more than 15,000 attendees, including founders, venture investors, developers and exchange executives.

Organizers said concerns around safety, international travel and logistics played a central role in the decision. Tickets and registrations will remain valid for next year’s event.

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And this is just one of the crypto events.

TON Gateway Dubai, another crypto gathering, has been canceled outright. The event focused on The Open Network ecosystem and was expected to bring developers and partners working on the TON blockchain together in early May. The team behind the event said it scrapped the in-person conference due to heightened security risks in the region, and that those who purchased tickets received full refunds.

The impact has also reached global sports. The Bahrain Grand Prix scheduled for April 12 and the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix on April 19 are set to be canceled due to safety risks tied to the conflict, including nearby military strikes, disrupted airspace and travel complications for teams and staff.

Formula 1 and the FIA are expected to formally confirm the decision over the weekend.

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Later Middle East races are still scheduled for now, including the Qatar Grand Prix and the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in December. However, organizers are closely monitoring the regional security situation as travel and logistics remain uncertain across the Gulf.

The disruptions extend beyond crypto and motorsport. Several major business events in the UAE have also shifted dates. Middle East Energy Dubai, a large trade show that usually draws tens of thousands of attendees, has been moved to September. Affiliate World Global postponed its Dubai edition to 2027, while the Dubai International Boat Show has delayed its next event without announcing new dates.

Some sporting events across the region have also been postponed, including tennis tournaments in the UAE and football matches tied to Asian competitions.

Crypto industry impact

The Formula 1 cancellations carry additional implications for the cryptocurrency industry, which has become one of the sport’s largest sponsor categories.

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Exchanges and blockchain companies have spent tens to hundreds of millions of dollars on F1 partnerships to reach a global audience and target fast-growing markets in the Middle East.

Cryptocurrency exchange OKX, which was recently valued at $25 billion, has been a primary partner of McLaren since 2022. It maintains prominent branding across the team’s cars, driver suits and trackside activations.

Crypto.com serves as a global Formula 1 partner through 2030, while exchanges such as Bybit have previously signed deals worth up to $150 million with top teams like Red Bull Racing. Kraken, Coinbase and Binance are also sponsors of motorsports that may be affected.

OKX and Crypto.com didn’t immediately reply to the request for comments.

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When a sponsored team reaches the podium, logos appear during televised ceremonies, interviews and trophy presentations, moments watched by a global audience of more than a billion viewers each year.

For Dubai-based and regional exchanges, the Bahrain and Saudi races were especially valuable because they connect global broadcasts with a local audience in the Gulf, one of the world’s most active crypto markets.

The hit carries weight because of Dubai’s role in the global crypto industry. Over the past few years, the emirate has positioned itself as one of the world’s most active crypto hubs.

A tax-friendly environment and the creation of the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, an independent regulator for the sector, helped attract exchanges, venture funds and startup teams seeking clearer rules than those found in many other jurisdictions.

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Companies, including Binance, have built large operational footprints in the city, turning Dubai into a central meeting point for the global Web3 sector.

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Coinbase and Bybit in Investment Talks: Could Bybit Finally Enter the US Crypto Market?

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Coinbase and Bybit are in early-stage investment talks, with no official confirmation from either party yet.
  • Bybit’s valuation is estimated at around $25 billion, mirroring ICE’s recent investment deal with OKX.
  • The partnership could give Dubai-based Bybit a fully regulated entry point into the US crypto market.
  • COIN stock rose 1.18% on the news, gaining nearly 20% over the past month amid rising investor confidence.

Coinbase and Bybit are reportedly in discussions for a major investment deal. The potential partnership could give Dubai-based Bybit a regulated path into the US crypto market.

Three sources confirmed the talks to WuBlockchain, although neither party has officially commented. No final outcome has been reached as of now.

Reports indicate Bybit’s valuation could reach around $25 billion, based on a comparable deal involving OKX and ICE. The deal could also expand Coinbase’s global reach if confirmed.

Coinbase-Bybit Deal Could Open US Market to Offshore Exchange

The current discussions between Coinbase and Bybit cover a broad range of possible cooperation. This includes potential investment and other forms of formal collaboration between the two exchanges. However, the talks remain exploratory, and no binding agreement has been reached yet.

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Bybit is the world’s second-largest offshore crypto exchange, headquartered in Dubai. The platform serves a large global user base and offers a wide range of trading products. Gaining a regulated foothold in the US market has been a strategic priority for the exchange.

Coinbase, as the largest US-based crypto exchange, brings deep regulatory experience to the table. Experts say its background in licensing, reporting, and customer protection could benefit Bybit considerably.

Through this partnership, Bybit could navigate US compliance requirements far more effectively. Coinbase’s strong track record with US regulators adds credibility that Bybit would need in the market.

The deal also mirrors other recent strategic moves in the crypto sector. ICE recently invested in offshore exchange OKX at a valuation of $25 billion.

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Additionally, Coinbase acquired Deribit last year in a $2.9 billion transaction, reflecting a pattern of expansion through strategic deals.

Industry Response and Market Reaction to the Coinbase-Bybit Reports

Social media has seen a wave of speculation since WuBlockchain first reported the story. On X, OKX founder Star Xu shared his reaction to the reports, stating: “If it’s true, good for the industry. Higher standards, less regulatory arbitrage.” His comment reflects a broader positive sentiment toward regulated collaboration in the crypto space.

Experts note that a successful Coinbase-Bybit deal could benefit both parties in distinct ways. For Coinbase, it offers an expanded global reach and a stronger international presence.

For Bybit, the deal opens a structured and compliant entry into the US market. The partnership could also position both companies more competitively in an evolving global landscape.

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The COIN stock price responded positively to the emerging reports. Shares closed at $195.53, recording a 1.18% gain in a single trading day. Over the past month, the stock has risen nearly 20%, pointing to growing investor confidence around Coinbase’s strategic direction.

The talks remain in their early stages, and no official timeline has been confirmed. Both Coinbase and Bybit have yet to release any public statement on the matter. The industry continues to watch closely for further developments as speculation around the deal grows.

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Can ETH Launch a Strong Rebound After Reclaiming $2K?

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Can ETH Launch a Strong Rebound After Reclaiming $2K?

Ethereum is still in recovery mode, but the rebound is starting to look more organized than before. The asset continues to hold above the February base and is pressing closer to a key breakout area, which suggests buyers are gradually gaining confidence even if the larger trend has not fully turned yet.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

The daily chart still carries the scars of the broader downtrend. ETH remains below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and both are still sloping in a way that favors sellers on the higher timeframe. The descending structure from the prior months also remains intact, so the market is not out of danger yet.

Even so, the picture has improved at the margin. Ethereum has spent several weeks defending the $1,800 zone and has now pushed back toward the $2,150 short-term resistance area again. If that ceiling breaks, the next upside region to watch sits around $2,300 to $2,400, while the much larger barrier remains near $2,800. On the downside, losing the $1,800 support cluster would weaken the recovery thesis considerably and likely lead to another round of decline capitulation.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, ETH looks more constructive than it does on the daily. The market has been printing a sequence of higher lows from the February bottom, and the rising trendline underneath the price shows that dip buyers are still active. That does not guarantee a breakout, but it does show that the short-term structure is leaning upward rather than flat or weak.

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What matters now is the repeated test of $2,143. The asset has reached that level several times, which usually makes the next reaction important. A decisive move through it could trigger a fast push into the next supply zone around $2,400 and possibly higher. Another rejection, however, would likely keep ETH rotating sideways and send it back toward the trendline and the $1,800 support area.

Sentiment Analysis

Funding data shows that sentiment is no longer fearful, but it is not overheated either. Rates are mostly positive, which means long positioning is present, and traders are generally leaning bullish, yet the readings are still relatively moderate compared to the stronger speculative phases seen in the past.

That is usually a healthier backdrop than an aggressively crowded long market. In other words, sentiment is supportive, but not euphoric. This gives ETH room to extend higher if price confirms with a breakout, though it also means the market still needs spot follow-through rather than relying purely on leveraged optimism.

 

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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Bitcoin Beats US Stocks as Strategy’s STRC Hints at a $776M BTC Purchase

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Bitcoin Beats US Stocks as Strategy's STRC Hints at a $776M BTC Purchase

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its strongest weekly gain since September 2025, defying a broader risk-off backdrop driven by the escalating US and Israel-Iran war.

Key takeaways:

  • Strategy raised $776 million this week, which could lead to the purchase of over 11,000 BTC.

  • US Bitcoin ETFs had $767 million in inflows in the same period.

STRC hints at $776 million in Bitcoin buying power

As of Saturday, BTC/USD had risen more than 7% over the past week to around $70,625. Over the same period, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was down 1.60%.

BTC/USD vs. SPX weekly chart performance. Source: TradingView

The divergence came as STRC.LIVE estimates indicated that Strategy may have raised enough cash through at-the-market sales of its STRC instrument this week to buy more than 11,000 BTC.

At current prices, that would amount to roughly $776 million in Bitcoin.

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STRC weekly data (March 9–13). Source: STRC.LIVE

STRC is Strategy’s exchange-traded income-paying instrument that helps it raise investor cash for Bitcoin buys. When it trades at or above its $100 par value, Strategy can issue more shares and turn that demand into fresh BTC-buying capital.

Related: Bitcoin ‘passing geopolitical stress test’ as BTC price spikes above $72K

Last week, Strategy had purchased 17,994 BTC, equivalent to about $1.28 billion at that time. About 30% of the BTC allocation was funded by STRC sale proceeds.

Bitcoin’s price was also boosted by US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted $767 million in net inflows across five straight trading days, reflecting growing demand for BTC despite the Middle East crisis.

Bitcoin gains during geopolitical crises

In the past, Bitcoin has experienced selloffs at the start of major geopolitical conflicts, only to recover and deliver larger gains.

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In February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused an initial dump, but was followed by a 40% BTC price rally, as shown below.

BTC/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Ted Pillows

A similar sequence played out after Israel’s June 2025 strikes on Iran. Bitcoin dipped in the immediate aftermath, then flipped higher, gaining about 25% over the next two months.

During the January 2020 US–Iran flare-up after General Qasem Soleimani’s killing, Bitcoin rose more than 50% overall, even though the first reaction included a brief price drop.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price may rise further if history is any indication, with macro models hinting at an escalation toward $100,000 in the coming months.

Bear flag keeps BTC’s downside risks intact

Conversely, a bear flag formation on the Bitcoin chart increases the likelihood of a bull trap.

Bear flags form when the price rises inside an ascending, parallel channel after a strong downtrend. They usually resolve when the price breaks below the lower boundary and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.

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As of Saturday, Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near the flag’s upper boundary, also aligning with the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, the red line) at around $72,750.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Applying the bear flag principle to Bitcoin’s chart places the measured downside target at around $51,000.