FX markets have become increasingly reactive in March, with geopolitical developments—particularly the US–Iran conflict—driving price action across currencies, commodities, and interest rate expectations.

In this update, we examine the key forces shaping the FX market right now, including:

✔️ The impact of rising oil prices on inflation and currency dynamics
   
✔️ Shifting central bank expectations and delayed rate cut outlook

✔️ Elevated volatility and what it signals for near-term market conditions
       
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Professional trader Alessio Rastani has revised his Bitcoin outlook, suggesting the market could slip below $60,000 before a meaningful bottom forms. In a recent Cointelegraph interview, Rastani explained that while Bitcoin staged a brief recovery earlier this year, the shape of that bounce does not yet justify a sustained uptrend.

Rastani has not abandoned his broader bearish-to-neutral stance; he argues that the current price action remains structurally fragile. The result, he says, is a heightened probability of another test of lower levels before buyers regain conviction and a durable bottom takes root.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin may trade under $60,000 again before a lasting bottom appears, according to Alessio Rastani.
• A critical support corridor could emerge between about $59,000 and $46,000, where longer-term buying opportunities might materialize.
• Rastani remains skeptical of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in 2026, signaling a delayed recovery timeline.
• Beyond crypto, he cautions about macro risks and cautions against overreliance on fixed cycle frameworks, such as the four-year halving cycle.

Rastani’s revised stance: why the bounce isn’t enough yet

In detailing his updated view, Rastani emphasized that the most recent upward movement failed to create a convincing base for a sustained rally. He notes that price action needs to demonstrate more structure, breadth, and durability before market participants can reasonably anticipate a durable uptrend. Until such signals emerge, the door remains open to another downswing that could test important support levels.

While the near-term path remains uncertain, Rastani highlights a potential downside scenario in which Bitcoin tests sub-$60,000 prices again. He argues that the risk-reward calculus at current levels favors waiting for clearer confirmation of a bottom rather than chasing the next leg higher based on a fleeting bounce.

Where the chart could find footing: the $59k–$46k range

Looking beyond the immediate price action, Rastani identifies a key support zone that could act as a magnet for buyers if price declines resume. He points to a band roughly spanning $59,000 down to $46,000 as a critical area where conditions might become favorable for longer-term positioning. In such a range, traders often find a balance between downside risk and potential upside catalysts, creating opportunistic entry points for patient investors.

That said, the extent to which this range can hold—and whether a durable bottom forms within it—depends on a confluence of factors, including broader risk sentiment, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic developments. If Bitcoin breaks decisively below the lower end of that corridor, the path to fresh lows could accelerate; if it holds, the market might spend time consolidating before any sizable bounce materializes.

Macro context, cycles, and what to watch next

Rastani’s broader market commentary stretches beyond Bitcoin. He sketches a view of a potential top forming in equities in the months ahead, underscoring the risk of a broader risk-off environment that can weigh on crypto assets as part of a correlated sell-off. More importantly, he cautions against overreliance on fixed, cyclical narratives. In his view, the four-year halving cycle and similar frameworks can mislead investors when markets move in ways that defy predictable patterns.

For readers tracking the crypto market, the takeaway is to balance micro-price action with macro signals. The proximity of Bitcoin to the $59k–$46k support window, combined with the direction of equity markets and liquidity conditions, will shape the near-term trajectory. In other words, the next move may hinge less on a single indicator and more on a lattice of price action, risk sentiment, and external economic pressures.

Readers seeking a deeper dive into Rastani’s reasoning can review the full Cointelegraph interview, where he revisits his prior calls and outlines how price action has reshaped his outlook. As always, investors should remain wary of drawing conclusions from a single data point and instead watch how key levels and macro cues interplay in the coming weeks.

What remains uncertain is how quickly a durable bottom could form and whether the market can sustain any multi-month rebound. As the chart continues to unfold, attention will stay tuned to whether Bitcoin can establish a meaningful base or if the next move tests the downside once again.

TLDR:

• The Trump administration released a six-part National AI Legislative Framework on March 20, 2026, targeting key policy areas.
  
• The White House urged Congress to give parents stronger tools to protect children from AI-driven exploitation and harmful content.
  
• The framework proposes removing outdated barriers to AI innovation while expanding workforce training programs across U.S. industries.
  
• A uniform federal AI policy is being prioritized to prevent conflicting state laws from weakening America’s global AI competitiveness.

The National AI Legislative Framework, released by the Trump Administration on March 20, 2026, outlines a broad national policy. The White House stated the framework addresses six key objectives tied to AI development and governance.

These objectives range from protecting children to enabling innovation across American industries. The administration also called on Congress to convert this framework into enforceable legislation. Federal leadership, the White House noted, is essential to maintaining public trust in AI.

Children’s Safety and Community Protections Take Center Stage

One of the framework’s primary areas of focus is protecting children online. The administration is calling on Congress to give parents tools to manage their children’s digital environments.

These tools include account controls to safeguard privacy and regulate device use among minors. The White House further called on AI platforms to reduce the sexual exploitation of children.

Beyond child safety, the framework also addresses broader community concerns. The administration stated that AI development should support economic growth for small businesses and communities.

It further proposed that ratepayers should not bear the financial burden of powering data centers. Congress is being asked to streamline permitting so data centers can generate on-site power.

The framework additionally proposes expanding federal capacity to combat AI-enabled scams. This addresses a growing concern among Americans about fraudulent activity powered by artificial intelligence.

The administration views these measures as essential to maintaining community safety nationwide. Together, these proposals form a layered approach to protecting the public.

Free speech is another concern the framework directly addresses. The administration proposed guardrails to prevent AI systems from censoring lawful political expression.

Federal protections are being sought to stop AI from suppressing ideological or political dissent. The administration stated that AI must be able to pursue truth without limitation.

Innovation, Workforce Development, and the Push for AI Dominance

The framework also focuses heavily on removing barriers that slow AI innovation. Congress is being asked to eliminate outdated regulations that hinder the deployment of AI.

The administration wants to accelerate AI use across multiple industry sectors simultaneously. Broader access to testing environments for building world-class AI systems is also being sought.

On intellectual property, the framework takes a balanced approach. It calls for respecting the creative works of American innovators, publishers, and creators.

At the same time, it acknowledges that AI must learn from existing content fairly. The administration proposed a middle-ground approach to address both concerns effectively.

Workforce development is another area the framework directly tackles. The administration encouraged Congress to expand AI skills training and workforce programs.

These programs are meant to help American workers participate in AI-driven economic growth. New jobs in an AI-powered economy are expected to follow from these efforts.

The administration also stressed the need for a uniform national policy. A patchwork of conflicting state laws, the White House said, would weaken American innovation.

Federal consistency is being presented as the path to winning the global AI race. The administration plans to work with Congress in the coming months on final legislation.

A long-dormant Bitcoin whale wallet has reactivated after 13 years and seven months of inactivity, shifting 0.00079 BTC ($56), a tiny fraction of a fortune now worth around $147 million. 

Onchain data from BitInfoCharts shows that the legacy address “1NB3ZX…” received 2,100 Bitcoin (BTC) on July 5, 2012, when BTC traded at about $6.59 per coin. At today’s prices, that stash is valued at roughly $147 million, turning an initial outlay of about $13,800 into an unrealized gain of more than 10,000x.

The move caught the eye of onchain trackers like Whale Alert and LookonChain that monitor so-called Satoshi-era addresses, a term often used for coins acquired in Bitcoin’s early years. 

BitInfoCharts shows the address was funded in a single large inflow on July 5, 2012, and then left untouched for almost 14 years.

Traders debate diamond hands vs recovered keys

Bitcoin traders are split between reverence and speculation. Some praised the HODLer’s apparent discipline for holding through multiple boom-and-bust cycles without selling, “No leverage. No day trading. No stress. Just conviction and time. The hardest strategy is also the most profitable.”

Related: Bitcoin whales shift $100M+ as oil spike rattles markets

Others argued that a more likely explanation was that the owner recently recovered their seed phrase or private key, and was sending a test transaction before cashing out a meaningful amount.

Test transactions of a few tens of dollars are common practice among long-inactive holders, who often move a tiny amount first to confirm they still control the wallet and that the destination address is correct.

Traders will now watch closely to see whether the wallet sends more of its 2,100 BTC to exchanges or fresh addresses in the coming days.

Satoshi-era whale echoes earlier $85 million move

The reawakened 2012 wallet follows another recent move by a Satoshi-era BTC holder in January. On that occasion, a separate address that first accumulated Bitcoin in 2013 transferred its entire balance of about 909 BTC (worth roughly $85 million) to a new wallet after more than 13 years of dormancy.

The whale locked in a gain of around 13,900x on coins originally bought for less than $7 each.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author