Crypto World
Bithumb Could Face 6-Month Partial Suspension in South Korea
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Regulatory authorities in South Korea are intensifying oversight of cryptocurrency platforms as Bithumb—the country’s second-largest exchange by trading volume—faces a potential six-month partial suspension. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has issued a preliminary notice tied to alleged anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer deficiencies, including dealings with unregistered overseas virtual asset service providers and gaps in customer due diligence. In a parallel move, a reprimand was issued to Bithumb’s chief executive, signaling the seriousness of the regulator’s intent. While officials have signaled that a sanctions decision will be refined in March, the action remains at an early stage and could still be adjusted before any final measures are announced. Bithumb has framed the development as not yet final, underscoring that the scope of any sanction could change as the review unfolds.
Key takeaways
- The FIU has issued a six-month partial suspension notice to Bithumb over AML and KYC controls, including concerns about dealings with overseas service providers not registered in Korea and customer due-diligence gaps.
- A reprimand to Bithumb’s CEO accompanies the notice, a move regulators describe as a serious penalty that could influence leadership decisions and future appointments.
- A formal sanctions review is expected later in March, with the potential for adjustments before any final measures are imposed.
- If finalized, the suspension would restrict new users from transferring digital assets off the platform, while other services would presumably remain available to existing customers.
- Background context includes a high-profile miscredit incident during a February promotional event that incorrectly credited 2,000 BTC per user, triggering scrutiny of internal controls and security protocols.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The development comes amid a broader push by South Korean authorities to strengthen AML and KYC standards for crypto platforms, mirroring a global tightening in exchange compliance and risk controls as regulators expand oversight and enforcement actions.
Why it matters
The FIU action against Bithumb highlights how regulators are moving beyond generic compliance rhetoric to enforce concrete consequences for exchanges that fail to meet anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer requirements. The preliminary six-month suspension, if finalized, would directly curtail a gateway for new users to move digital assets off the platform, which could have downstream effects on liquidity and user onboarding for one of Korea’s largest trading venues. While Bithumb emphasized that this step is not a final sanction and that the scope could shift, the message from authorities is clear: robust AML controls are no longer optional in a highly regulated market.
The episode also situates Bithumb within a broader crackdown across the sector. Earlier in 2025, Upbit’s parent company Dunamu faced sanctions including a partial suspension and a substantial fine, underscoring regulators’ willingness to penalize organizational structures and processes that enable noncompliant activity. Korbit, another domestic exchange, received a significant but smaller penalty in the same wave. Taken together, these penalties reflect a policy pivot toward stronger accountability for the crypto ecosystem, particularly around interactions with overseas providers and customer verification processes.
Beyond regulatory signaling, the incident underscores the operational risks exchanges face in maintaining AML/KYC rigor. The February promotional miscredit—where 2,000 BTC per user was credited by mistake, culminating in a total distribution cited as 620,000 BTC—exposed gaps in internal controls and risk monitoring. That event, which occurred during a promotional period, has implications for governance, incident response, and customer trust as authorities scrutinize how platforms manage incentives, security, and compliance at scale. The combination of a potential sanction and a past misstep illustrates why exchanges are prioritizing robust onboarding checks, cross-border provider screening, and transparent reporting to regulators.
What to watch next
- The sanctions decision timetable: a March review by the FIU to finalize whether the six-month partial suspension will become binding and how it will be structured.
- Scope adjustments: authorities may limit or expand restrictions on withdrawals for new users, depending on ongoing assessments of the exchange’s AML/KYC posture.
- Regulatory activity at other exchanges: continued enforcement against Upbit and Korbit could foreshadow broader policy direction for the sector.
- Internal controls and governance responses at Bithumb: any governance changes, risk-management enhancements, or new compliance programs could influence the regulatory outcome and investor confidence.
Sources & verification
- FIU preliminary notice detailing a six-month partial suspension and the associated AML/KYC concerns at Bithumb.
- Bithumb’s public statements noting the action is at the pre-notification stage and that sanctions, if imposed, may evolve.
- Background reporting on a February promotional miscredit that credited 2,000 BTC per user, resulting in a reported distribution of 620,000 BTC.
- Regulatory actions against Upbit’s parent Dunamu, including a partial suspension and a 35.2 billion won fine in 2025, as reported by local sources.
- Regulatory penalties against Korbit, including a 2.73 billion won fine in December 2025.
Key figures and next steps
The unfolding situation at Bithumb sits at the intersection of intensified regulatory scrutiny and ongoing efforts by Korean authorities to tighten AML/KYC standards across crypto platforms. The FIU’s decision, the reprimand to the CEO, and the March review collectively determine whether a concrete sanction will anchor the exchange’s near-term operations. For market participants, the episode reinforces the importance of compliance-driven risk management, especially for platforms seeking to grow in a tightly monitored environment.
Where to verify
- Official FIU statements or notices related to Bithumb’s AML/KYC assessment and any forthcoming sanctions.
- Bithumb’s public responses or press releases addressing the pre-notification stage and the potential scope of sanctions.
- Independent reporting on the February miscredit incident and its impact on internal controls and regulatory oversight.
- Regulatory actions and penalties involving Upbit (Dunamu) and Korbit, including sanction amounts and the regulatory rationale behind them.
Crypto World
Hyperliquid Burns 49,000+ HYPE Tokens in a Single Day, Confirming Net Deflationary Status
TLDR:
- HyperCore burned 49,360.33 HYPE at ~$35.09 on April 2, pushing the protocol into net deflationary territory.
- Even with 26,665 HYPE distributed to stakers and validators, net circulation still dropped by 17,075 tokens.
- Hyperliquid’s annual deflation rate stands at ~6.15M HYPE, contrasting sharply with Solana’s 25.19M SOL inflation.
- The HIP-3 flywheel ties protocol revenue directly to buybacks, creating self-sustaining and organic supply reduction.
Hyperliquid recorded a net removal of 17,075 HYPE tokens from circulation on April 2, 2026. HyperCore repurchased and permanently burned 49,360.33 HYPE at an average price of approximately $35.09.
Alongside this, HyperEVM gas fees contributed an additional 146.43 HYPE to the burn total. Even after distributing 26,665 HYPE as staking and validator rewards, the protocol remained firmly in net deflationary territory for the day.
Buyback Mechanism Drives Daily Deflationary Pressure
The April 2 activity placed Hyperliquid’s annualized deflation rate at roughly 6.15 million HYPE per year. On a monthly basis, that translates to approximately 512,262 HYPE removed from circulation.
These figures reflect a consistent pattern emerging from HyperCore’s revenue-backed buyback program. The numbers stand in sharp contrast to Solana, which inflates by around 25.19 million SOL annually through staking and validator rewards.
HyperCore’s buyback model operates on a price-sensitive basis, which makes it naturally self-adjusting. When HYPE prices rise, fewer tokens are repurchased with the same revenue.
Conversely, when prices fall, the same revenue buys and burns more tokens. This mechanism creates a built-in buffer against extreme supply pressure at different points in the market cycle.
The burn also accounts for a worst-case assumption regarding team token unlocks. Hyperliquid Labs is allocated 173,000 HYPE per month in vesting, equal to about 5,766 HYPE per day.
Even if this entire allocation were sold into the market, the protocol would still achieve net deflation under the current numbers. That assumption was already factored into the 17,075 HYPE net removal figure.
This structure sets Hyperliquid apart from many protocols that rely on token emissions to incentivize participation.
Here, buybacks are funded by actual trading revenue from HyperCore, not newly minted supply. That distinction matters when evaluating the long-term sustainability of the deflationary model.
HIP-3 Adoption Strengthens the Protocol’s Revenue Flywheel
Greater adoption of HIP-3 is central to sustaining and potentially accelerating this deflationary trend. As more users trade through the protocol, activity increases and so does revenue.
Higher revenue, in turn, supports larger buybacks and more burns. The cycle reinforces itself without depending on external capital injections.
This flywheel effect ties protocol growth directly to supply reduction. Each new participant adds to the trading volume that funds the next round of buybacks.
Over time, this creates persistent and organic buy pressure on HYPE. The pressure comes from protocol economics, not from speculative demand or marketing cycles.
Trading activity on HyperCore feeds directly into the buyback pool used for burns. The April 2 figures show that this model is already producing measurable results at current price levels.
As HIP-3 usage grows, the mechanism is designed to scale accordingly. The connection between adoption and deflation is direct and quantifiable.
Validators and stakers received 26,665 HYPE in rewards during the same period. That distribution ensures continued network participation while the broader supply still contracts.
The balance between rewarding contributors and reducing circulating supply appears to be working as intended on April 2.
Ethereum stayed near $2,050 on April 4 as traders weighed price resistance, ETF outflows, and fresh staking activity from the Ethereum Foundation.
Summary
- Ethereum stayed near $2,050 as foundation staking approached 70,000 ETH and resistance held near $2,150.
- US spot Ethereum ETFs ended the week negative, with more than $42 million withdrawn overall.
- Analysts said ETH must clear $2,100-$2,150, while losing $2,000 could trigger long liquidations across markets.
On-chain data showed that the Ethereum Foundation staked about 69,500 ETH in less than two months. At current prices, that amount stood above $140 million. The group had earlier said it planned to use staking to support research, development, and broader ecosystem work through yield.
The latest move involved 45,034 ETH sent on Friday in batches of 2,047 ETH to the Eth2 Beacon Chain deposit contract. Arkham data also showed the Ethereum Foundation holding more than 102,000 ETH, while its treasury across 14 addresses was valued at about $270 million.
While the foundation kept adding staked ETH, US spot Ethereum ETFs continued to record net withdrawals for most of the recent period. The funds saw eight straight sessions of outflows before posting a small net inflow of about $5 million on March 30.
Another positive day followed on March 31 with $31.17 million in net inflows. Still, the trend turned negative again after later sessions posted $7.1 million and $71.17 million in outflows. That left the week in the red, with more than $42 million leaving the products.
Analysts watch key ETH price levels
Analyst Crypto Patel said Ethereum had stayed between $1,500 and $4,100 for nearly five years. He compared the current structure with the 2018 to 2020 range and said a breakout could lead to a much larger move if history repeats.
That view added to wider market debate, but short-term traders remained focused on nearer resistance and support levels. ETH traded at $2,050.69, with a 24-hour trading volume above $6 billion, a daily gain of 0.12%, and a seven-day increase of 2.59%.
In addition, analyst Ted Pillows said Ethereum needs to break above the “$2,100-$2,150” area to restart stronger upside momentum. He noted that ETH moved close to $2,400 a few weeks ago but failed to hold that advance and slipped back below the key zone.
He also warned that a drop below the “$2,000” support level could trigger a long liquidation event.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Metaplanet Outperforms MicroStrategy in Q1 Bitcoin Acquisition Using Options-Based Treasury Strategy
TLDR:
- Metaplanet added 5,075 BTC to permanent holdings in Q1 through a structured options income rotation system.
- The firm generated $18.63 million in options income, reducing its net Bitcoin cost to roughly $76,227 per coin.
- MicroStrategy acquired 89,599 BTC at $80,929 average, while Metaplanet’s net cost came in nearly $4,700 lower.
- Metaplanet separates Bitcoin into two buckets — income generation and long-term holdings — never mixing the two.
Metaplanet, the Japanese hotel company turned Bitcoin treasury firm, has drawn attention after shifting to quarterly Bitcoin purchase announcements.
The company added 5,075 BTC to its permanent holdings in Q1 2025. Its average purchase price came in near $79,898.
Meanwhile, a detailed breakdown from a prominent analyst suggests the firm may have outperformed MicroStrategy, widely regarded as the benchmark for corporate Bitcoin acquisition.
Metaplanet’s Two-Bucket Bitcoin System Explained
Metaplanet reportedly operates two distinct Bitcoin buckets. One is dedicated to income generation, and the other holds long-term Bitcoin positions.
According to analyst Ragnar, the two buckets remain strictly separate. Long-term holdings are never exposed to options contracts under this structure.
The income generation bucket works through a rotation of cash-secured puts and covered calls. When the team holds cash, they sell put options below the current Bitcoin price.
If Bitcoin stays above the strike price minus the premium, the puts expire and the premium is collected. This process repeats weekly, compounding returns over the quarter.
If Bitcoin falls below that threshold, Metaplanet gets assigned and acquires Bitcoin below market price. At that point, the team pivots to selling covered calls against those holdings.
The calls either expire, generating more premium, or get assigned, returning the position to cash and restarting the cycle.
At the quarter’s close, the team transfers the accumulated Bitcoin into the permanent holdings bucket. This transfer marks the official addition to their long-term treasury, which is what gets announced publicly each quarter.
Q1 Numbers Show Metaplanet Acquired Bitcoin Cheaper Than MicroStrategy
The Q1 figures offer a clearer picture of performance. Metaplanet generated $18.63 million in income from its options activity during the quarter.
Dividing that by the 5,075 BTC added to permanent holdings gives roughly $3,671 of income per Bitcoin acquired.
Ragnar’s post breaks this down further. Subtracting the income generated from the average purchase price of $79,898 brings the effective net cost to approximately $76,227 per Bitcoin.
That figure excludes direct capital deployment and accounts only for options-based income offsetting acquisition costs.
By comparison, MicroStrategy purchased 89,599 BTC in Q1 at an average price of $80,929. That puts Metaplanet’s net cost roughly $4,700 lower per Bitcoin when income generation is factored in. Even without that adjustment, Metaplanet still came in around $1,000 cheaper per coin.
Ragnar noted that Metaplanet achieved this result while its preferred share structure still awaits approval. The analyst added that he remains more bullish on the company following this analysis, though he clarified the post represents personal speculation pending confirmation from the Metaplanet team.
Block plans to revive the Bitcoin “faucet” model on April 6 through a new site, btc.day, as Jack Dorsey pushes another public effort tied to Bitcoin access and education.
Summary
- Block will relaunch the Bitcoin faucet on April 6 through a new countdown site, btc.day.
- The company has not disclosed claim rules, eligibility, or total Bitcoin set for distribution yet.
- Dorsey’s rollout revives Gavin Andresen’s 2010 faucet model, which once gave users five Bitcoin.
The site already shows a countdown timer, an orange faucet symbol, and the phrases “The Faucet is Back” and “Buy, Secure, Spend.”
Dorsey announced the move on Friday through an update tied to Bitcoin at Block. The company said the faucet will return through btc.day, though it has not yet shared the full rules for how users will claim free Bitcoin.
The website does not currently ask users to complete any task. It only shows a timer and basic branding linked to the old faucet idea. Block has also not said how much BTC it plans to distribute.
The faucet model dates back to 2010, when software developer Gavin Andresen used it to introduce people to Bitcoin. His original site gave users five BTC after they completed a captcha and entered a wallet address.
At that time, Bitcoin was new and had little public reach. Early builders used simple tools like faucets to help people test wallets, send coins, and learn how the network worked. The model later became part of Bitcoin’s early history.
In addition, the new rollout appears to borrow from that original approach. By bringing back the faucet concept, Block is linking a modern campaign to one of Bitcoin’s best-known early distribution methods.
The company has not confirmed whether the new version will use captchas, wallet checks, or any other participation step. It also has not said whether the giveaway will be open globally or limited to specific users or regions.
Community watches for more details
Crypto users have started discussing the relaunch across social platforms. Some described the move as a way to keep Bitcoin more accessible, while others pointed to the larger number of wallet users today compared with 2010.
The market is now waiting for details on the size, timing, and structure of the giveaway. Block held 8,883 BTC as of its accumulation record dating back to October 2020, but neither Dorsey nor the company has said how much of that Bitcoin, if any, will be used for the faucet.
Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin hitting $72,000 would liquidate $2.5 billion in shorts, potentially crushing bears who are overleveraged.
-
Iran’s war and high oil prices currently pressure BTC, but a ceasefire or ETF inflows could spark a rapid recovery.
$2.5 billion in shorts at risk if BTC hits $72,000
Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently failed to hit new highs since attempting to reclaim the $75,000 level since March 17.
Bearish Bitcoin futures bets have been piling up as the war in Iran pushed oil prices to their highest levels since June 2022. However, two events could propel Bitcoin to $72,000 in the coming weeks and help cement a sustainable bull run.
According to Coinglass estimates, a total of $2.5 billion in short positions on Bitcoin futures will be liquidated if Bitcoin rises just 7.5% to $72,000 from the current $67,100 level.
BTC bears benefit from miners’ sales, weak S&P 500
Bears have been adding shorts since March 25, when Iran reportedly refused to negotiate a ceasefire. Additional selling pressure emerged as MARA Holdings (MARA US) announced it sold 15,133 BTC on March 26. The publicly listed Bitcoin miner shifted its focus to AI computing and chose to reduce its Bitcoin holdings to pay down debt.
After peaking near 7,000 points on Jan. 28, the S&P 500 dropped 10% by March 30. Investors fear recession risks because central banks have less room to cut interest rates due to inflation.
Oil prices have jumped over 70% since the war in Iran started in late February, which hikes logistics costs and cuts into consumer spending.
Traders are pricing in 89% odds that the Fed will keep interest rates steady through September, with 5% odds of a hike to 4%.
In early March, bond futures showed the opposite, with 79% odds of rate cuts. Returns on fixed-income investments will likely stay attractive for longer.
Meanwhile, confidence among Bitcoin bears has increased, as reflected by the negative funding rate in perpetual futures contracts.
In neutral market conditions, longs usually pay to keep positions open, causing this indicator to range between 5% and 10% to compensate for capital costs.
Negative funding rates signal a lack of demand for bullish leveraged bets and potential overconfidence from the bears.
Ceasefire or economic weakness may boost Bitcoin
While it is impossible to predict the outcome of the war involving Iran, a ceasefire agreement could spark bullish sentiment and catch bears by surprise.
Bitcoin jumped from $69,150 to $74,900 during the five days ending March 16 after US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $1.5 billion in net inflows over two weeks. If ETF inflows resume, Bitcoin could also reclaim the $72,000 level.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs ‘will be larger’ than gold ETFs–Analyst
US President Donald Trump has asked Congress to boost defense spending to $1.5 trillion, according to a 2027 budget proposal released Friday. These plans include a 10% cut in other areas to offset military expenses.
Trump reportedly said at a private White House event on Wednesday: “We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of day care,” according to CNBC.
If the US economy loses steam, or if private credit redemptions continue to pressure the market, investors will likely look for alternative hedges.
Consequently, Bitcoin’s appeal would grow as the it presently trades 47% below its all-time high. Thus, a bull run to $72,000 might happen regardless of how long the war in Iran lasts.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Global X Management Company has launched the Global X Ethereum Covered Call ETF (EHCC), a new fund that writes call options on Ether-related ETPs to generate weekly income distributions, marking the firm’s first crypto ETF beyond Bitcoin.
The fund carries a 0.75% expense ratio, is actively managed, and invests at least 80% of net assets in U.S.-listed Ether ETPs, including spot and futures products, without directly holding the digital asset.
EHCC brings Global X’s total digital asset ETF count to four. It launched with CUSIP 37966B802, an inception date of March 16, 2026, and The Bank of New York Mellon as custodian. The firm manages $78.1 billion in AUM as part of Mirae Asset Financial Group’s $803 billion global platform.
Key Takeaways:
- Ticker: EHCC – Global X Ethereum Covered Call ETF, launched April 2, 2026.
- Expense Ratio: 0.75%, actively managed, no minimum investment.
- Strategy: Writes call options on Ether ETPs; distributes option premiums to investors weekly.
- Tradeoff: Upside above the strike price is capped; downside exposure remains.
- Competitor: Amplify’s EHY has been running the same structure since October 9, 2025, also at 0.75%.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Buy Right Now
What EHCC Actually Does – and Why Ether’s Volatility Is the Product
The core mechanic is straightforward: EHCC holds Ether-linked ETPs and sells call options against that exposure. The option premiums collected are distributed weekly.
In exchange, the fund surrenders gains above the strike price in a rally – a direct cap on upside that income-focused investors are explicitly accepting as the deal.
Pedro Palandrani, Head of Product Research & Development at Global X, framed the thesis plainly: “Although we believe ether has significant growth potential, it’s also a highly volatile asset, which we believe makes it well suited for a covered call strategy that aims to generate weekly income while maintaining exposure to potential price appreciation.”
That volatility isn’t a bug here – it’s what inflates the option premiums that fund the distributions.
Ethereum’s price dynamics make it a credible covered call substrate. ETH has historically moved 60-80% annualized volatility in active periods, which translates directly into fatter premiums when writing calls.
Amplify’s competing EHY, launched October 9, 2025, targets 50-80% annualized option premiums using the same weekly cadence and the same 0.75% fee. EHCC enters a market that already has a benchmark.
The SEC’s May 2024 approval of spot Ether ETFs is what made this structure viable – EHCC needs liquid, regulated Ether ETPs to write options against. Without that underlying infrastructure, the fund doesn’t exist. Bitcoin ETF market trends showed that once regulated wrappers gain traction, derivative income strategies follow fast. That playbook is now running on ETH.
The risk is asymmetric in one specific way: EHCC retains full downside exposure to Ether while capping the upside. In a sustained ETH bull run, holders underperform a straight spot position. In a choppy or declining market, the premium income provides a buffer – but not a floor. That’s the trade.
Discover: The Best Crypto Presales Live Right Now
The Ethereum Income ETF Space Is Getting Crowded – Fast
Global X isn’t first to this specific trade. Amplify’s EHY has six months of operational history, giving it a performance track record EHCC currently lacks.
Amplify also has ETTY – an Ethereum 3% monthly option income ETF – already in the market, signaling a multi-product Ether income strategy that Global X is now moving to match.
The institutional backdrop supports the build-out. Ethereum’s growing role in institutional tokenization is pulling traditional asset managers toward ETH-denominated products.
Regulated income vehicles lower the barrier for allocators who want ETH exposure without the custody risk or the volatility of a direct position. EHCC slots directly into that demand.
Watch EHCC’s first weekly distributions and net inflow trajectory against EHY as the real test. If Global X’s distribution brand and $78.1 billion AUM distribution network pulls traditional ETF investors into the Ether income category, this launch matters beyond the product itself, it normalizes weekly crypto yield as a standard ETF feature.
If flows stay thin, it confirms EHY has the first-mover lock and EHCC is a late follow-on. Q2 2026 will answer that.
Explore: The best pre-launch token sales with asymmetric upside potential
The post Global X Launches Ethereum Covered Call ETF Targeting Weekly Income appeared first on Cryptonews.
Prediction markets are pushing into Asia’s largest economies, even as local gambling laws place strict limits on betting activities.
Asia represents a combination of scale, active retail participation and limited local alternatives, making it too large to ignore despite regulatory risks.
That’s a similar pattern seen in crypto, where technology moved faster than regulation and licensing frameworks, prompting exchanges to enter markets before clear rules were in place.
Like many startups, the industry’s heavyweights adopted the “better to ask for forgiveness than permission” approach to scale.
Polymarket, one of the fastest-growing platforms, is already recording over $1 billion in weekly volume. It has introduced Chinese-language support, while newer entrants like PredicXion are focusing on local events to drive adoption.
But beneath the surface, the region is fragmented and legally complicated, where access, language and regulation don’t always align with the industry’s global ambitions.
Prediction markets hit local barriers in Asia
Three Asian countries — China, Japan and India — ranked among the world’s five largest economies by gross domestic product in 2024, according to the World Bank.
India and China do not have specific frameworks addressing blockchain-based prediction markets, but both maintain restrictive environments around crypto. India imposes heavy taxation, while China enforces an outright ban on activities such as trading and mining.
South Korea also ranks among the world’s largest economies at 12th and is often cited as one of the most active retail crypto markets. The South Korean won is a consistent top-two currency by global fiat trading volume, according to Kaiko.
Related: How AI agents can reshape arbitrage in prediction markets
“Prediction markets could be a very big opportunity in the Korean market,” Heechang Kang, co-founder at research company Four Pillars, told Cointelegraph. “But I think many prediction markets are having difficulty capturing audiences because their predictions are mostly focused on Western themes.”
Japan faces similar localization challenges, where language and a lack of region-specific events limit broader adoption.
That gap has created an opening for Asia-based platforms. Prediction markets originating from the region, such as PredicXion, are attempting to localize content by focusing on region-specific events.
However, its founder and CEO Andy Cheung said local gambling regulations in key markets remain a “significant concern.”
“In these jurisdictions, authorities often classify activities involving wagering on uncertain outcomes as gambling, which is heavily restricted or outright prohibited outside of tightly controlled state-run lotteries or exceptions,” Cheung told Cointelegraph.
The argument that prediction markets and gambling are different
In China, online gambling is strictly prohibited, and access to platforms such as Polymarket is largely restricted. Some users bypass controls using VPNs to get around the country’s internet censorship, commonly known as the Great Firewall, but that does not eliminate risk.
“Many in the industry are aware of the strict legal environment in these regions, and aggressive user acquisition there does carry risks, not just for operators, but potentially for users themselves under local laws that can treat participation as illegal gambling,” Cheung said.
Regulators in South Korea and Japan have yet to directly address blockchain-based prediction markets as well, and most platforms remain accessible. Both countries, however, maintain strict limits on gambling.
In South Korea, most forms of gambling are prohibited for locals outside a narrow set of state-run exceptions, and the law extends to participation on overseas platforms. Authorities have actively pursued illegal online betting operators and, in some cases, users themselves.
Japan takes a similarly restrictive approach, where gambling is generally illegal outside regulated channels such as lotteries, horse racing and other public betting systems.
Related: Why yen stablecoins are key to Japan’s crypto ambitions
That leaves prediction markets in a gray zone, where access is possible but legal classification remains unresolved.
“Some argue that prediction markets are no different from gambling. I would dispute that,” Jaewon Kim, a researcher at Four Pillars who authored the company’s prediction markets report, told Cointelegraph.
He said the distinction lies in the type of output they produce. Gambling is largely a closed loop where users bet against the house, with outcomes that have little relevance beyond the game itself. Meanwhile, prediction markets aggregate expectations about real-world events.
“During the 2024 US presidential election, prediction markets gained significant traction and, in some cases, were more accurate than polls or expert forecasts,” Kim claimed. “That ability to reflect collective expectations is what sets them apart and gives them informational value beyond simple wagering.”
Legal classification will determine prediction markets’ future in Asia
Several prediction platforms are moving into Asia with the same playbook that defined earlier phases of crypto growth, targeting demand first and leaving regulatory clarity for later. The region offers a rare mix of scale, retail participation and underdeveloped local alternatives.
That tension is already visible on the ground. Platforms can reach users through language support and workarounds like VPNs, but none of those solve the underlying issue of classification. Major Asian markets also have some of the most restrictive legal environments for anything that resembles gambling.
Local players are beginning to test that boundary by tailoring products to regional audiences, though Cheung said platforms like PredicXion are trying to avoid “heavily restricted markets.” Most regions have yet to determine whether prediction markets fall under gambling.
The industry’s argument that prediction markets are distinct adds another layer of uncertainty. If they are treated as information markets that aggregate real-world expectations, they may eventually find a regulatory pathway similar to financial instruments.
If not, they risk being absorbed into existing gambling frameworks that leave little room for expansion.
Kalshi added Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter as a policy adviser as the prediction market company faces legal and political pressure in the United States.
Summary
- Kalshi hired Stephanie Cutter as policy adviser while facing lawsuits and political scrutiny in Washington.
- Kalshi is building bipartisan ties as prediction markets face legal challenges from states and lawmakers.
- Federal and state officials continue fighting over who should regulate event contracts and prediction markets.
The move places another well-known political figure around the company at a time when regulators, lawmakers, and state officials continue to examine prediction markets and event contracts.
Kalshi said Cutter joined from Precision Strategies, the firm she co-founded in 2013. The company said the appointment will help it “deepen its relationships in DC and across the country.”
Kalshi co-founder and chief executive Tarek Mansour said Cutter can help the company get its message to the right people because of her experience in government and politics.
Cutter is a longtime Democratic strategist with experience in presidential and congressional politics. Her arrival adds a new policy voice to Kalshi as the company pushes to explain prediction markets to officials and the wider public. Cutter described Kalshi as a data-based platform at a time when public debate is often driven by noise and division.
The appointment also fits a broader effort by Kalshi to build ties across both major US parties. In January 2025, Kalshi named Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic adviser. That move gave the company a Republican-linked figure as it tried to expand its standing in Washington.
Kalshi opened a Washington office in January 2026 and has since held nearly 200 meetings with lawmakers and officials from across the political spectrum. That outreach shows how closely the company is tying its growth plans to policy work as prediction markets face closer review.
Legal fights keep building
Kalshi’s policy push comes as state and federal authorities continue to clash over who controls prediction markets. Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois moved against platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket under state gambling laws.
In response, the CFTC filed lawsuits arguing that federal law gives the agency “exclusive jurisdiction” over these markets.
Lawmakers have also raised concerns about trading tied to sensitive political and military events. Some Democrats called for more scrutiny after “suspicious trades” linked to the US invasion of Iran.
In March, Kalshi said it would add guardrails to block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from trading in certain markets, aiming to reduce insider trading and manipulation risks.
Santiment said traders were watching a small group of digital assets as the market moved into the weekend.
Summary
- Ethereum and Bitcoin led as traders tracked quantum risks, ETF flows, staking, and price pressure.
- Solana chatter rose after exploit reports, network issues, and project losses pushed security concerns higher.
- USDC, Chainlink, and Pippin gained attention through compliance claims, token unlocks, integrations, and meme-driven activity.
The social platform placed Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Bitcoin (BTC), USDC, Pippin, and Chainlink among the coins drawing the “highest trader interest” across online discussions.
Ethereum and Bitcoin stay in focus
Ethereum drew strong attention as traders discussed security, custody, and market activity. Posts centered on a new white paper about quantum computing risks tied to ECDSA signatures, which protect Ethereum accounts, admin keys, and some on-chain data.
At the same time, traders tracked reports that the Ethereum Foundation staked “around 45,000 to 70,000 ETH.” Social activity also picked up around ETF flow data, Charles Schwab’s plan to offer spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, and Ethereum’s price near the $2,000 level.
Bitcoin also remained active in social discussions during the same period. Much of the debate followed a Google Quantum AI white paper that raised fresh talk about how quantum systems could affect Bitcoin’s long-term security model.
Traders also linked Bitcoin’s recent move near the “$67,000 to $70,000” range to wider macro pressure. Social posts pointed to Middle East tensions, oil market fears, corporate treasury buying, and planned retail access through Charles Schwab’s crypto product.
Solana and USDC face risk-driven chatter
Solana social activity rose after reports of a major Drift Protocol exploit that “drained roughly $270 million to $286 million.” Traders also discussed losses across projects tied to the Solana ecosystem and the effect on network confidence.
Online posts also focused on outage claims, failed transactions, slow confirmations, and wallet connection issues. Validator updates and project comments added to the discussion as traders watched for signs of recovery.
USDC also moved into focus after investigator ZachXBT published a dossier about Circle’s compliance record. The report claimed Circle had seen “over $420 million in compliance lapses since 2022” tied to delayed freezes and response actions.
That report spread across X, Reddit, and Telegram. Traders also discussed USDC’s role in cross-border payments, DeFi liquidity, and multichain transfers while questioning custody and freeze controls.
Pippin and Chainlink draw attention
Pippin gained traction as traders treated it like a social-driven memecoin. Posts described it as a token powered by online hype, fast price swings, and rising community attention instead of project fundamentals.
Chainlink drew interest after reports of a quarterly unlock of about 19 million LINK. Traders focused on the share sent to Binance, the amount moved to multisig wallets, and new discussion around Chainlink integrations and oracle tools.
Bitcoin traders with mid- to large-sized holdings continued to lock in losses at a startling pace in Q1 2026, according to on-chain analytics from Glassnode. Data shows that wallets holding 100–10,000 BTC realized losses averaging about $337 million per day—the strongest quarterly signal of capitulation since 2022. The developing pattern combines with persistent losses among long-term holders to raise questions about how far the market may slide before a potential bottom forms.
Key takeaways
- In Q1 2026, sharks (100–1,000 BTC) realized losses around $188.5 million per day, while whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) realized roughly $147.5 million per day, totaling about $336 million daily on average and roughly $30.91 billion in realized losses for the year so far.
- These figures place Q1 2026 among the most severe periods for on-chain realized losses among large BTC holders, behind only Q2 2022’s peak daily loss rate of about $396 million.
- Long-term holders (coins held for more than six months) are also selling at a loss, with losses running near $200 million per day on a 30-day average since late 2025, signaling broader capitulation beyond the largest wallets.
- Analysts note that the current pressure mirrors some of the macro and systemic stress seen in 2022, involving inflation concerns, liquidity outflows, and investor risk-off dynamics tied to macro events and sector-wide volatility.
- Looking ahead, some market observers point to a potential bottom in the $40,000–$50,000 range, but acknowledge substantial uncertainty as macro risks persist and on-chain dynamics evolve.
Capitulation among BTC whales and sharks
Glassnode’s realized loss metric tracks the dollar value of losses locked in when BTC is sold below its purchase price. In Q1 2026, the two key cohorts—sharks (addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC) and whales (1,000–10,000 BTC)—showed pronounced downside pressure. Sharks realized losses at an average of about $188.5 million per day, while whales contributed roughly $147.5 million daily. Combined, large holders have locked in around $30.91 billion in realized losses for 2026 thus far.
These levels mark one of the harshest on-record periods for large holders and come as BTC faces a confluence of macro headwinds. In Q2 2022, Bitcoin experienced more than a 50% price drop, followed by further declines as liquidity drained during the Terra collapse, Celsius disruptions, and the broader market turmoil surrounding the collapse of major crypto ventures. The current quarter’s pace suggests a renewed wave of capitulation among mid- to large-sized investors are bracing for additional downside as macro risks intensify.
Beyond the immediate price action, the on-chain data underscore a reluctance among significant holders to endure ongoing macro stress without reinforcing downside protection. The net result is pressure on supply dynamics and potential liquidity constraints that could complicate a swift recovery if risk-off sentiment persists.
Long-term holders under pressure
Another facet of the broader drawdown in BTC comes from Long-Term Holders (LTHs). Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder Realized Loss chart indicates that losses among LTHs remain elevated, averaging approximately $200 million per day on a 30-day basis since November 2025. In the view of Glassnode analysts, a cooldown toward daily losses well below $25 million would be a meaningful signal of exhaustion in selling pressure and a prerequisite for the base formation that historically precedes a sustainable bull market transition.
“A meaningful cooldown toward levels below $25M per day would represent a more compelling signal of exhaustion in selling pressure. A prerequisite for the base formation that historically precedes a sustainable bull market transition.”
Macro headwinds and the road ahead
The Q1 2026 snapshot arrives amid a broader mix of risk factors that have historically intersected with BTC drawdowns. Analysts cite inflation dynamics tied to energy and geopolitical developments, as well as innovation-driven market turbulence—ranging from concerns around quantum-resilience to the AI-driven risk trade—as pressures that can amplify drawdowns in risk assets, including Bitcoin. These factors echo the kind of rapid-downside catalysts seen during 2022’s crypto bear market, complicating calls for a rapid turnaround.
Some market observers have floated a potential bottom in the vicinity of $40,000–$50,000, framing it as a plausible reversal zone if supply-demand dynamics align with a cooling in realized losses and a stabilizing macro backdrop. Yet others caution that until on-chain metrics show sustained improvement and macro uncertainty lightens, a definitive bottom remains elusive.
This analysis reflects advanced on-chain research and is not investment advice. Investors should monitor how realized losses trend in the coming quarters and how on-chain activity aligns with price action before drawing conclusions about a durable bottom.
As the market weighs these signals, the next steps for BTC investors may hinge on whether the current capitulation can ease and whether price formation can establish a technical base that precedes any meaningful recovery.
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