Crypto World
Bitwise files for prediction market-backed ETFs
Bitwise Asset Management has filed with regulators to launch a new line of exchange-traded funds tied to political prediction markets, marking its latest push into alternative investment products.
Summary
- Bitwise has filed with regulators to launch a new line of ETFs focused on U.S. election outcomes.
- The proposed funds would give investors regulated access to political prediction contracts through traditional brokerage accounts.
- Approval is still pending, and regulators continue to review how these products fit within existing securities rules.
The filing was disclosed by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, who shared details on social media. According to the preliminary prospectus dated Feb. 17, the proposed funds would operate under the “PredictionShares” brand and remain subject to regulatory approval.
The document states that the offering is incomplete and that the securities cannot be sold until the registration statement becomes effective.
Election-focused contracts at the core
The filings outline several proposed ETFs linked to U.S. political outcomes. These include separate funds tracking whether Democrats or Republicans win the 2028 presidential election, as well as products tied to control of the House and Senate in the 2026 mid-term elections.
Rather than investing in companies connected to prediction markets, the funds are designed to hold event-based contracts sourced from regulated trading venues. These contracts pay out based on specific real-world outcomes, such as election results.
Bitwise said PredictionShares will serve as a dedicated platform for clients seeking regulated exposure to prediction markets through traditional brokerage accounts. No launch date has been set, and approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet been granted.
Seyffart noted that similar filings have appeared in recent months and said more are likely to follow as interest in the sector grows.
Growing competition and market interest
Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, said prediction markets are expanding in both size and relevance, making them difficult for asset managers to ignore. He added that client demand played a key role in the decision to pursue the products.
Other firms have also moved into the space. Roundhill Investments previously filed for similar election-based ETFs, while GraniteShares has submitted competing proposals. None has yet received regulatory clearance.
With platforms like Polymarket reporting heavy trading volume during significant political events, prediction markets have drawn increased attention in recent election cycles. Supporters say these markets often reflect public opinion more quickly than traditional polls.
Critics, like Vitalik Buterin, warn that they are extremely risky and can behave like speculative bets. Industry analysts caution that funds associated with particular outcomes could lose most of their value if forecasts prove to be wrong.
Additionally, regulators are examining how these products align with current derivatives and securities regulations.
The Ethereum Foundation has finalized an over-the-counter (OTC) sale of 5,000 Ether to BitMine Immersion Technologies, a transaction worth about $10.2 million based on the agreed price of $2,042.96 per ETH.
In a Saturday post on X, the foundation said proceeds from the sale will support core operations, including protocol research and development, ecosystem growth initiatives and community grant programs. The onchain transfer will originate from an Ethereum Foundation Safe multisignature wallet.
BitMine, a publicly traded company on the NYSE American under the ticker BMNR, has emerged as one of the largest corporate holders of Ether (ETH). Chaired by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the firm holds more than 4.5 million ETH worth roughly $9.3 billion, according to industry treasury trackers.
The company has steadily accumulated Ether since mid-2025, following a strategy similar to Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation model.
Related: Ether accumulation data predicts rally to $2.8K, but there’s a catch
EF conducts second corporate ETH OTC sale
The transaction marks the second time the Ethereum Foundation has sold ETH directly to a corporate treasury buyer via an OTC deal. In July 2025, the organization sold 10,000 ETH to SharpLink Gaming at an average price of $2,572.37, a transaction valued at about $25.7 million.
These periodic sales are part of the Ethereum Foundation’s treasury management framework introduced in June 2025. Under that policy, the organization periodically converts a portion of its ETH holdings to maintain a fiat-based operating reserve. The framework targets annual spending equal to roughly 15% of treasury holdings while maintaining a multi-year operating runway.
The announcement comes shortly after the foundation began staking a portion of its treasury, with plans to deploy around 70,000 ETH into validators using open-source infrastructure.
Related: Ethereum accumulation wallets jump 30%: Will ETH price follow?
EF publishes mandate outlining its role
This week, the Ethereum Foundation released a new mandate outlining its role in stewarding the Ethereum ecosystem, emphasizing decentralization and user sovereignty over assets and data. The document states that Ethereum should remain censorship-resistant, open source and privacy-preserving while scaling to support global adoption.
The foundation said it will focus on core protocol upgrades, long-term research, cybersecurity and developer tools while gradually reducing its direct influence over the network.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
TLDR:
- Bitcoin nodes remain connected even if 72–92% of global submarine cables fail simultaneously.
- Random infrastructure failures rarely disrupt more than 5% of Bitcoin nodes worldwide.
- Targeting high-betweenness cables can fragment Bitcoin with only 20% of total cable damage.
- Top hosting providers supporting Bitcoin nodes could cause network disruption with just 5% capacity loss.
Bitcoin network resilience has become the focus of a major academic study examining how the network reacts to internet infrastructure failures.
Researchers from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance analyzed eleven years of node data and submarine cable outages.
Random Infrastructure Failures Show Bitcoin Stability
Bitcoin network resilience remains strong when infrastructure failures occur randomly across the global internet. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance studied data on Bitcoin nodes between 2014 and 2025.
Researchers focused on submarine communication cables, which carry most international internet traffic. They tested scenarios by simulating different portions of global cable failures.
The study found that between 72% and 92% of submarine cables must fail simultaneously before major fragmentation occurs. Fragmentation is defined as more than 10% of nodes losing connectivity.
Reviewing sixty‑eight real cable fault events over the past decade, the study found that most incidents produced minimal disruption. Eighty‑seven percent of the faults caused less than five percent of node disconnection.
A notable case in 2024 occurred off West Africa, where several cables were severed. Regional internet connectivity suffered, yet the global Bitcoin network remained mostly unaffected.
Bitcoin nodes are widely distributed across countries and independent networks. This geographic and network diversity allows block propagation to continue even when certain regions lose connectivity.
Targeted Attacks and Tor Connectivity Reveal Critical Factors
Targeted attacks, however, reveal vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin network’s resilience. Some submarine cables carry disproportionately high traffic and are considered high‑betweenness edges.
Simulations show that disrupting around 20% of these critical cables could produce the same fragmentation as 72–92% of random cable failures. This demonstrates that specific infrastructure matters more than total volume.
Concentration in hosting providers also matters. A few companies—including Hetzner, OVH, Comcast, Amazon, and Google Cloud—host a large portion of reachable nodes. Removing only about five percent of routing capacity in these networks could fragment Bitcoin connectivity.
Tor network adoption further affects resilience. By 2025, approximately 64% of Bitcoin nodes were reachable through Tor, compared to only a few dozen in 2014. Tor routing adds redundancy by providing alternative communication paths.
Tor relays are often located in European countries with dense fiber networks. These alternative routes help maintain connectivity even during regional infrastructure failures.
A tweet summarizing the finding noted: “Bitcoin survives massive random cable outages. Targeting key hosting providers could disrupt the network with minimal infrastructure damage.”
Overall, the study indicates that Bitcoin network resilience depends more on which infrastructure fails rather than how much fails. Random outages rarely impact the network, while targeted disruptions could create critical chokepoints.
TLDR:
- Strategy now holds 738,000 BTC, representing over 3% of total Bitcoin supply.
- Daily purchases average 1,940 BTC, exceeding post-halving Bitcoin issuance.
- Corporate treasury strategy allows public company to fund large-scale BTC accumulation.
- Strategy could surpass Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings by 2027 if current pace continues.
Strategy Bitcoin Accumulation has propelled the company into the top ranks of global Bitcoin holders. Its treasury now exceeds 738,000 BTC, actively absorbing circulating supply and positioning it alongside Satoshi Nakamoto, institutional ETFs, and major custodians like Coinbase.
Corporate Treasury Strategy and Growth
Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy, has become one of the largest active Bitcoin holders worldwide. Its corporate treasury now holds approximately 738,000 BTC, representing over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply.
This accumulation places Strategy alongside Satoshi Nakamoto and major institutional ETFs. The company’s approach relies on a structured treasury strategy.
In one week, Strategy purchased nearly 18,000 BTC for $1.28 billion. These purchases are funded through equity offerings, preferred stock, and convertible debt instruments, which are converted directly into Bitcoin.
Daily accumulation averages around 1,940 BTC, with peak days exceeding 5,700 BTC. This scale surpasses the daily issuance of new Bitcoin following the 2024 halving.
Strategy’s purchases not only increase its holdings but also remove significant amounts of Bitcoin from liquid markets, emphasizing the influence of corporate accumulation.
The company leverages capital markets to support its acquisitions. Investors often purchase Strategy stock as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, allowing the company to raise funds above the underlying BTC value.
This creates a self-reinforcing cycle, funding further purchases and reinforcing the company’s role as a large-scale Bitcoin holder.
Comparison with Other Major Holders
Strategy’s holdings are now approaching those of Satoshi Nakamoto, whose estimated stash sits around 1.1 million BTC mined in 2009–2010.
Satoshi’s coins have remained unmoved for over fifteen years, effectively removing them from circulation and creating a historic benchmark for large-scale holdings.
Other major holders include institutional ETFs, like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, and custodians such as Coinbase. However, Strategy stands out because it actively accumulates and absorbs supply rather than passively holding.
This corporate model demonstrates how public companies can now influence Bitcoin distribution at scale. If current trends continue, Strategy could surpass Satoshi’s estimated holdings by 2027.
The company requires roughly 361,000 more BTC to reach this milestone. This trajectory demonstrates a clear shift in Bitcoin ownership, as corporate accumulation begins to rival early adopter and institutional holdings, reshaping the supply landscape.
TLDR:
- US President Trump calls for a global coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian disruptions.
- Iran allows selective shipping while blocking enemy tankers, maintaining strategic leverage.
- The US deploys 2,500 Marines and USS Tripoli to reinforce regional naval presence.
- Strait closure threatens global energy supplies and millions dependent on safe cargo passage.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has escalated tensions as the US calls for multiple countries to deploy warships. Iran maintains restrictions, allowing selective shipping while threatening strategic disruptions.
Trump Calls for Global Naval Support
US President Donald Trump stated that many countries would send warships to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
The announcement appeared on Truth Social, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom among potential participants.
He emphasized a “team effort” alongside the United States to keep the critical waterway secure. Trump claimed that the US has destroyed Iran’s military capability entirely.
However, he acknowledged that Tehran could still launch drones, mines, or short-range missiles against ships along the strait. He pledged continuous US military action along the shoreline to maintain open passage.
Alireza Tangsiri, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy, stated that the strait remains under control, not militarily closed. He criticized US claims of destroying Iranian naval forces and escorting oil tankers as inaccurate.
The US is also reinforcing its presence in the region with 2,500 Marines and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship, following CENTCOM approval. Trump highlighted that nations dependent on the strait must take responsibility, with the US providing coordination and support.
Iran Restricts Passage, Risks Global Supply
Iran clarified that the strait is closed only to tankers and ships considered hostile or allied with enemies. Indian-flagged vessels carrying liquefied petroleum gas received exemptions following direct negotiations between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Similarly, Turkish-owned vessels received limited clearance after Ankara engaged directly with Tehran. Fourteen more Turkish ships still await authorization to pass through the waterway.
These selective exemptions highlight Iran’s control while maintaining leverage over international shipping.
The closure threatens global energy and food security, as the strait handles a significant portion of oil, LNG, and fertilizer feedstocks. India invoked emergency powers to secure cooking gas for over 333 million homes.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that millions of people are at risk if cargo cannot pass safely. Experts note that Iran’s primary leverage is economic rather than military.
Occasional strikes or disruptions are sufficient to discourage insurers and shipping companies from transiting the strait. Trump’s call for coalition forces aims to reassure markets, though no diplomatic agreement has yet formalized multinational escorts.
TLDR:
- Polymarket shows Ethereum may lose its #2 market cap position in 2026 at 57% probability.
- Solana’s growth in DeFi and apps challenges Ethereum’s dominance in the crypto market.
- Stablecoins like Tether steadily increase market cap, pressuring Ethereum’s ranking.
- Ethereum retains the largest DeFi ecosystem and layer-2 infrastructure despite market shifts.
Prediction platform Polymarket now indicates a 57% probability that Ethereum may be overtaken by another asset in 2026. Ethereum’s second largest cryptocurrency status is being increasingly priced by the market.
Rising Competitive Pressure on Ethereum
Prediction market data from Polymarket shows traders now assign a 57% chance that Ethereum will lose its second-largest market capitalization.
These markets reflect where capital is being placed, signaling investor confidence beyond social media opinions.
The most immediate competitor is Solana, which has grown rapidly in decentralized finance, memecoin activity, and consumer-focused applications.
Low transaction costs and high throughput have attracted developers and users previously active on Ethereum’s platform. Stablecoins, particularly Tether (USDT), are also contributing to potential shifts.
Rising demand for cross-border payments, on-chain transactions, and store-of-value functions allows stablecoins to steadily increase their market capitalization. This trend may further pressure Ethereum’s ranking.
Ethereum’s Structural Strengths Remain
Ethereum continues to dominate the decentralized finance space with the largest liquidity pools and developer ecosystem. Institutional adoption, staking infrastructure, and layer-2 scaling solutions provide additional support for the network.
Even as prediction markets show rising probabilities of change, Ethereum remains central to major DeFi protocols, NFT platforms, and smart contract deployments. Its security model and liquidity concentration are difficult for competitors to replicate quickly.
Market narratives influence probabilities, as Solana and other networks attract more speculative attention. While these signals show potential risk for Ethereum’s market cap, they do not diminish the network’s functional importance within the crypto ecosystem.
Tweets discussing the likelihood of Ethereum being overtaken highlight growing market awareness. Traders are considering multiple factors, from stablecoin expansion to smart-contract adoption rates, which may impact Ethereum’s position throughout 2026.
Ethereum losing its second-place ranking would reflect competitive pressure rather than failure. Market capitalization is only one measure of network relevance, and Ethereum’s ecosystem remains integral to crypto infrastructure and DeFi development.
Crypto World
Sui vs Near: How Two Blockchain Networks Are Taking Different Roads to Scalable Infrastructure
TLDR:
- Sui finalizes independent transactions in 0.4–0.5 seconds using an object-centric parallel execution model.
- Near’s dynamic sharding allows the network itself to expand capacity as on-chain demand increases over time.
- Stablecoins make up 40–50% of Sui’s DeFi activity, with total DeFi value surpassing $2 billion in 2025.
- Near’s Confidential Intents launched in early 2026, enabling private cross-chain execution and AI-agent automation.
Sui and Near are two blockchain networks that both promise high throughput, low fees, and horizontal scalability. They are often grouped as competitors in the same category.
However, their underlying architectures reflect very different assumptions about how blockchain demand will grow.
Those architectural differences determine what type of activity each network can sustainably support. Understanding these differences helps investors and developers make more informed decisions about where to build or allocate capital.
Architecture and Throughput: Where the Two Networks Diverge
Sui is built around an object-centric model that treats assets as independent objects. When two transactions do not touch the same object, they skip full consensus and execute in parallel.
Only transactions involving shared objects enter the full consensus path. This design allows simple transfers to finalize in the 0.4 to 0.5 second range. As hardware improves, execution capacity on Sui scales accordingly.
Near takes a different structural approach by partitioning the network itself through sharding. State is split across shards, and validators are assigned to specific shard segments.
The protocol can dynamically reshard as demand increases, and finality typically lands between 0.6 and 1.3 seconds.
Developers on Near interact with a protocol that manages scaling internally, reducing the need to handle partition logic manually.
In real-time conditions, neither network is currently constrained by throughput. Observed TPS on Sui ranges around the mid-20s, while Near operates between 30 and 40.
Both chains advertise theoretical ceilings far beyond current usage. The bottleneck today is demand, not execution capacity.
Crypto analyst eye zen hour, who requested a deep dive into both networks, noted that the competitive lens has shifted toward cost efficiency, liquidity depth, and ecosystem traction rather than raw TPS claims. That shift reflects where actual network value accumulates in the current market environment.
Validator design also differs between the two. Sui requires higher hardware specifications and greater stake exposure, creating a performance-oriented validator set.
Near lowers entry barriers through dynamic seat pricing and lighter hardware requirements, distributing workload across shards and broadening validator participation.
Stablecoins and Privacy: Competing Strategies for Institutional Growth
Stablecoins represent a practical stress test for any blockchain network. They simultaneously test settlement speed, liquidity routing, composability, and compliance readiness.
On Sui, stablecoins now account for roughly 40 to 50 percent of DeFi activity, with total DeFi value surpassing $2 billion in 2025.
Assets such as USDsui, suiUSDe, BlackRock-backed USDi, and over-collateralized BUCK reflect a strategy built around high-velocity settlement within a single execution environment. Zero-fee stablecoin transfers are planned for 2026.
Near’s stablecoin strategy focuses on liquidity mobility across multiple environments. USDC and USDT operate under the NEP-141 standard, and the Stablecoin Transport Protocol enables efficient cross-chain routing.
Cross-chain volume through Near Intents surpassed $13 billion in 2025, positioning stablecoins as cross-chain coordination tools rather than purely local settlement assets.
On privacy, Sui currently offers pseudonymity and object-level isolation. Its 2026 roadmap includes protocol-level default privacy through zero-knowledge proofs, homomorphic encryption, and selective disclosure.
Near, on the other hand, already launched Confidential Accounts and Confidential Intents in early 2026, enabling private cross-chain execution and AI-agent automation today.
Near’s active deployment of privacy features contrasts with Sui’s roadmap-based approach. Both paths are coherent, but Near’s execution-layer confidentiality is currently live, while Sui’s embedded privacy remains in development.
Market positioning further separates the two. Sui has established traction in gaming, consumer payments, storage, and institutional products.
Near centers its narrative on AI-native infrastructure, cross-chain coordination, and developer accessibility through JavaScript tooling and intent-based architecture. Both are viable, and adoption distribution over the next cycle will ultimately determine which scaling assumption proves more durable.
Crypto World
Market Divergence: Bitcoin Climbs 12.5% While Stocks and Precious Metals Lose Trillions
TLDR:
- Bitcoin market divergence appears as crypto rises while stocks and metals fall simultaneously.
- U.S. equities lose around $2.4 trillion while Bitcoin climbs nearly 12.5% in the same period.
- Gold and silver briefly spike on conflict headlines before reversing sharply downward.
- Market behavior suggests liquidity pressures and capital rotation may drive crypto gains.
Bitcoin market divergence is drawing attention after an unusual market reaction during recent geopolitical tensions.
Equities and precious metals declined sharply, yet the cryptocurrency market advanced, creating a rare pattern that differs from the typical risk-off behavior seen during global conflicts.
Traditional Safe Havens Fail to Follow the Usual Pattern
Financial markets usually follow a predictable script during geopolitical crises. Investors tend to move capital into assets considered stable when global uncertainty rises.
Precious metals such as Gold and Silver often attract inflows during these periods. Government bonds and the U.S. dollar also benefit from defensive positioning.
Risk assets typically move in the opposite direction. Major equity indices like the S&P 500 and digital assets, including Bitcoin, usually decline when investors shift toward safety.
Comparable reactions appeared during the COVID-19 Market Crash and the Russia–Ukraine War. In both events, precious metals strengthened while equities and crypto weakened.
Recent price behavior differs from that historical template. Stocks declined sharply while gold and silver also moved lower after an initial spike.
Such a move is unusual because precious metals typically retain value during periods of geopolitical stress. Their decline alongside equities indicates an atypical market response.
At the same time, the cryptocurrency market moved higher. This created a divergence in the Bitcoin market that analysts are now discussing across financial platforms.
Liquidity Pressure and Capital Rotation in Markets
One possible explanation centers on liquidity conditions rather than fear. Institutional investors sometimes sell liquid holdings when they need to raise cash quickly.
Precious metals markets provide deep liquidity. Large funds can exit positions rapidly, which sometimes leads to declines even during geopolitical uncertainty.
Another factor involves positioning before the conflict headlines appeared. If hedge funds already held large long positions in gold, the initial price spike may have triggered profit-taking.
This behavior often follows a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern. Prices rise before the event and decline after traders close positions.
During the same period, the cryptocurrency market moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin advanced nearly 12.5 percent while the broader crypto market gained roughly ten percent.
Observers on social media documented the unusual divergence. Several posts noted that equities, gold, and silver fell simultaneously while crypto markets rallied.
Some investors also continue exploring the narrative of Bitcoin as digital gold. The fixed supply model of Bitcoin contributes to that perception among certain market participants.
The recent market configuration, therefore, appears rare. Stocks declined, metals weakened, yet crypto prices advanced during geopolitical tension.
For now, the Bitcoin market divergence remains an uncommon pattern that market participants continue monitoring closely.
TLDR:
- Crypto market cap is trading near a historic demand zone that supported the 2022 bear market bottom.
- Market structure shows similarities between the current cycle and the 2021–2023 crypto market pattern.
- The latest correction of about 65% closely mirrors the magnitude of the previous bear market drawdown.
- If the support zone holds again, total crypto valuation could enter another large expansion phase.
Crypto Market Cap is approaching a historically important support zone as traders examine whether the market structure mirrors the previous cycle bottom.
The total digital asset valuation remains near $2.48 trillion while analysts track demand levels and broader market momentum.
Market Structure Shows Similarities to Previous Cycle
The crypto market cap is again testing a structural demand zone that previously stabilized the market. Historical chart patterns show that the same region supported the market during the 2022 bear cycle recovery.
Data from CoinGecko shows the total cryptocurrency valuation hovering around $2.48 trillion. At the same time, Bitcoin trades near $70,600 while controlling roughly 56% to 57% market dominance.
Technical charts show similarities between the 2021–2023 cycle and the current market structure. Both cycles formed a rising channel before breaking down toward a strong historical demand area.
During the previous cycle decline, the crypto market cap dropped sharply from almost $3 trillion to near $700 billion. The correction represented a market decline of more than seventy percent across the digital asset sector.
Despite the sharp downturn, the market eventually stabilized within a strong support region. That stabilization created a multi-month accumulation phase where capital slowly returned.
Market observers frequently discussed the pattern on social platforms. The total crypto market cap is revisiting the same demand zone that held the 2022 market bottom.
Traders are closely watching whether the level attracts buyers again. This structural resemblance has prompted renewed attention toward the current phase of the market cycle.
Demand Zone Could Determine the Next Expansion Phase
The current crypto market cap correction also resembles the magnitude of the previous downturn. Charts indicate the latest drawdown has reached roughly sixty-five percent from recent highs.
Analysts identify a key support region between $1.5 trillion and $1.7 trillion. This zone previously acted as the foundation of the 2022 bear market bottom.
The area also represents a long-term liquidity cluster where institutional demand historically appeared. Because of this structure, many traders consider the level a decisive support zone.
When the market stabilized in this area during the previous cycle, accumulation continued for several months. Leading assets such as Ethereum later joined the recovery that began with Bitcoin.
That accumulation phase eventually triggered a strong expansion in market value. The crypto market cap later surged by nearly 488% from the cycle bottom.
Analysts frequently reference that rally while evaluating the current setup. Previous accumulation at this level eventually triggered a large expansion in total crypto valuation.
The market is now approaching that same demand region again. If buyers defend the support region again, the market could enter another expansion stage.
A recovery similar to the previous cycle would place the crypto market cap between roughly $7 trillion and $9 trillion.
Large Bitcoin wallets are increasing their holdings again as the asset’s price holds around $71,000, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
“Their recent shift to accumulation is a bullish signal,” Santiment said in a report on Saturday, referring to wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC).
“This is a positive reversal,” Santiment added. Santiment data shows wallets holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) now control 68.17% of Bitcoin’s total supply, up from 68.07% seven days earlier.
Santiment eyeing retail investor activity
Santiment said that a potential local bottom in Bitcoin could be forming if whales continue accumulating while retail investors’ share of holdings begins to decline.
“Ideally, we want to see small wallets (retail) drop while this group rises, signaling a transfer of coins from weak hands to strong hands,” Santiment said.
An increase in retail buying suggests over-optimism, since Bitcoin’s price has historically bottomed when everyday investors start losing hope and selling.
At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed in “Extreme Fear” on Sunday at 16, signaling investors are still cautious.
Bitcoin is trading at $71,350 at the time of publication, up 6.30% over the past seven days.
Just over a week ago, Bitcoin whale activity was vastly different. Santiment reported on Mar. 6 that, in the two days prior, whales had sold 66% of the Bitcoin they bought between Feb. 23 and Mar. 3, just as Bitcoin surged past $70,000 and briefly touched $74,000.
Market bottom still uncertain
However, Santiment said that if retail investors keep buying Bitcoin, it could mean more downside ahead.
“Historically, markets tend to bottom when the ‘crowd’ loses hope. The persistence of retail optimism is currently the biggest argument against a confirmed bottom,” Santiment said.
Related: Bitcoin beats stocks as Strategy’s STRC hints at $776M BTC buying potential
“Markets rarely reward the majority consensus immediately,” Santiment added.
Bitcoin onchain analyst Willy Woo echoed a similar view, recently saying that Bitcoin is “solidly in the middle of its bear market through a lens of long-range liquidity.”
It comes as US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, bringing in roughly $767.32 million this week.
Magazine: All 21 million Bitcoin is at risk from quantum computers
Bitcoin is edging toward the upper-$70,000 zone as fresh demand signals emerge from spot markets, ETFs, and corporate accumulation. The asset traded close to $74,000 while posting a 10.42% weekly gain—the strongest seven-day performance since September 2025. Analysts point to a confluence of factors underpinning the move, including improving spot ETF flows, shifting dynamics in the Coinbase premium, and a build-up of bids from institutional players. As traders weigh liquidity pockets and key technical levels, market participants are watching whether the renewed appetite can sustain a broader rally or fade into a retest of nearby supports. The takeaway: demand trends appear to be re-accelerating after a prolonged period of consolidation.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin traded near $74,000 after a 10.42% weekly gain, the strongest weekly move since September 2025.
- The Coinbase premium gap turned positive for the first time in nearly ten weeks, at +35.4, signaling renewed buying pressure.
- Spot BTC ETF fund flows have improved over the last three weeks, with net inflows surpassing $1.9 billion.
- Corporate accumulation intensified, with STRC financing program purchases totaling 11,042 BTC in the current week.
- Liquidity clusters around $75,000 and above suggest a potential acceleration if price decisively clears resistance zones and fills nearby value gaps.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. The combination of an improving Coinbase premium and rising ETF inflows points to stronger buying interest and potential upside momentum.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. If BTC remains above key supports and liquidity pockets, the path of least resistance could tilt higher, provided macro conditions and funding rates stay supportive.
Market context: The recent uptick in spot ETF flows, coupled with renewed corporate demand, is aligning with a broader recovery in crypto liquidity and risk appetite. Traders are evaluating how this environment interacts with on-chain activity and macro liquidity, including potential regulatory developments affecting ETF structures and institutional participation.
Why it matters
The converging signals around Bitcoin’s price action matter because they reflect a shift in the demand landscape after months of volatility and a drawn-out corrective phase. A positive Coinbase premium gap indicates that demand on U.S. exchanges is outpacing global price discovery, which often accompanies sustained upside momentum. In the interim, spot ETF inflows act as a barometer for institutional interest; surpassing $1.9 billion in net inflows over three weeks implies that larger players are increasing exposure, potentially providing a stabilizing bid during pullbacks.
Corporate accumulation adds another layer of conviction. The STRC financing program’s purchase of 11,042 BTC this week demonstrates that strategic buyers are deploying capital in a disciplined manner, supporting a bid backdrop that can help Blackburne-style risk management and longer-term positioning. While these developments do not guarantee a continuation of gains, they contribute to a market environment where price action can be propelled by sustained demand rather than sporadic, speculative bursts.
From a technical standpoint, traders are paying close attention to whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 100-day moving average and solidify above local liquidity clusters. If the price stabilizes above roughly $74,000 and begins to fill soft zones above $75,000, the market could migrate into a higher-liquidity regime where leveraged longs cluster around the $75k–$80k area. In such a scenario, a break through the $76,000–$80,000 band could accelerate toward the next objective range near $79,400–$81,400, where previous imbalances between buyers and sellers formed into a fair value gap (FVG).
Analysts highlight that a sustained move above these levels would require broad-based demand, as well as continued compliance with risk-management signals from market participants. Some traders argue that the current price action constitutes a potential HTF trend reversal if a monthly bullish engulfing pattern solidifies on the charts, suggesting an established uptrend rather than a mere short-term rally. In this context, price action around major liquidity pockets and categorical technical signals will be pivotal in determining whether BTC can transition into a new trading regime.
Market observers also note the role of on-chain and off-chain data in shaping sentiment. The narrative around Coinbase’s premium and ETF inflows aligns with a broader theme: liquidity is gradually reconfiguring, and the market appears to be transitioning from a period dominated by sell-side pressure to one where buyers can reassert control. If this trajectory continues, the broader crypto market could begin to price in the possibility of higher macro-driven risk tolerance, with Bitcoin acting as a leading indicator for sector-wide flows.
Looking ahead, traders remain cautious about the pace of upward movement given the potential for volatility driven by macro headlines, regulatory developments, and the evolving ETF landscape. However, the current mix of improving ETF flows, renewed corporate demand, and a positive shift in the Coinbase premium underscores a more constructive frame for Bitcoin as it tests key resistance and liquidity thresholds.
What to watch next
- Bitcoin holding above $74,000 and reclaiming the 100-day moving average on a sustained basis.
- Continued improvement in spot BTC ETF inflows, with weekly net inflows approaching or exceeding the $1.5–$2.0 billion range.
- STRC financing program activity and additional corporate buys confirming a durable bid.
- Price trading through the $75,000–$80,000 zone, followed by a test of the $79,400–$81,400 region where a historical FVG sits.
- Liquidity maps showing a shift in leverage exposure and new clusters forming above the $75,000 mark.
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant QuickTake: Coinbase Premium just flipped positive after 10 weeks of US sellers dominating the market.
- SOSOVALUE Total Crypto Spot ETF Fund Flow: Net inflows data over the last three weeks showing improving demand.
- STRC live data: Strategy’s financing program and weekly BTC accumulation (11,042 BTC reported this week).
- CoinGlass: Bitcoin liquidation map indicating near-term leverage positions around $75k and liquidity pockets above $76k–$80k.
- Ardi’s X post on BTC price targets and momentum dynamics; Michaël van de Poppe’s analysis of resistance bands and quarterly patterns.
Bitcoin market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has moved into a renewed phase of demand, with the price hovering near $74,000 as weekly gains outstrip those of recent months. The rebound comes after a period where the Coinbase premium gap sat in negative territory for most of 2026, signaling a tilt in selling pressure from US spot traders. A positive premium suggests that buying interest on Coinbase is pushing the global reference price higher, a dynamic that often coincides with stronger spot demand coinciding with ETF inflows.
ETF flows have been a consistent driver behind the current reticence-to-growth narrative, as institutional participants seek more transparent exposure vehicles. In the latest reading, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs exceeded $1.9 billion over the preceding three weeks, a signal that investor confidence has started to take root after a protracted correction. The pace of inflows is not uniform, but the trend points toward a broader acceptance of spot exposure as a core component of crypto portfolios.
Corporate action has also contributed to the current mood. Strategy’s STRC financing program added 11,042 BTC to its balance sheet this week, underscoring a willingness among large buyers to deploy capital into the market during a rebound. Such activity adds a layer of credibility to the rally, suggesting that large pools of capital are differentiating between short-term price moves and longer-term exposure to a rising BTC price trajectory. As these actors accumulate, the market benefits from a more robust bid that can cushion prices against rapid downside moves.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears poised to retake the 100-day moving average, a move that could lead to a broader re-accumulation phase. If the recovery sustains above $74,000, traders anticipate a shift into a zone rich with liquidity—an area where leveraged long exposure clusters around the $75,000 threshold. In this scenario, the next critical hurdle lies in the $79,400–$81,400 range, where a previous imbalance between buyers and sellers—an hourly fair value gap—could act as a magnet for price discovery. Depending on where the price settles in this vicinity, traders may see a continuation pattern, with buyers attempting to extend gains beyond the immediate liquidity backdrop.
Market participants are also weighing macro considerations and regulatory signals that could influence ETF structures and investor appetite for crypto exposures. While the current data points to a constructive setup, the market remains sensitive to headlines that could reshape liquidity conditions or alter the risk-on/risk-off calculus among large-cap investors. In this environment, Bitcoin’s behavior tends to reflect both on-chain fundamentals and off-chain flow dynamics, making the next few sessions a crucial test of whether the recent demand resurgence can endure in the face of potential pullbacks or shifts in macro sentiment.
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