This Friday, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid in greater detail.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum had a mostly flat week, closing up only 1%. This means buyers managed to defend the key support at $1,800. The sell momentum is also fading, which could hint at a possible reversal soon.

The current resistance levels are found at $2,000 and $2,400. Given the price closed in the red over the last four weeks, a relief rally appears likely and could test these key levels.

Looking ahead, Ethereum may be completing its second leg down in an ABC correction. If so, bulls may soon make their presence known on the order book. That starts once the $2,000 level is reclaimed.

Ripple (XRP)

XRP closes the week up 5%. However, this was not sufficient to turn the chart bullish. That’s because the attempt to break the resistance at $1.6 was rejected sharply by sellers.

Such a rejection is a bearish signal that the downtrend may still continue for some time. If so, a retest of support at $1.4 and even $1 is likely in the future.

Looking ahead, the sell momentum continues to dominate, which can lead to lower price levels. Watch closely how the price reacts at $1.4 for a good indication of where XRP will go next.

Cardano (ADA)

ADA is hanging close to the support at $0.28, but appears to struggle and may lose this level again. If so, expect lower prices in the future, with key support at $0.24. This comes after a 6% gain to close the week.

Cardano’s price action mirrors somewhat the one from XRP. The momentum remains bearish, but sellers and buyers are still fighting for dominance at the key support. Either way, a decisive move can be expected soon.

Looking ahead, ADA had a very disappointing year so far and this will not change until it reclaims a price above 50 cents. That’s the moment when bulls could hope for sustained gains.

Binance Coin (BNB)

Binance Coin has been hugging the $580 support level over the past week and closed with a 3% gain. Sellers also appear to be taking a break, but that does not mean the selloff is over.

The current resistance is at $690 and has not tested to date. This shows buyers are still hesitant to return here, but the signs are promising since the selling volume has decreased substantially lately.

Looking ahead, if BNB can hold here, then buyers may gather enough courage to push higher and challenge the resistance at $690. If, however, sellers return in force, the price could fall to $500 next.

Hype (HYPE)

HYPE closed the week in the red with a 5% loss. This comes after a sharp rejection at the $36 and $30 resistance levels. Buyers are on the defensive, which could see the price fall lower up to the key support at $26.

If $26 is lost later as well, that will be an extremely bearish signal, which could see HYPE make new lows this year. On the other hand, if that level holds, then it could be interpreted as a higher lo,w which will encourage buyers to return once more.

Looking ahead, this cryptocurrency is found in a pullback that may last a while. Best to be patient here and wait for bulls and bears to show their intention around $26 first.

Metaplanet’s chief executive Simon Gerovich pushed back against criticisms from anonymous accounts alleging that the company misrepresented its Bitcoin treasury strategy and disclosures. Critics on X argued that Metaplanet delayed or withheld price-sensitive information about large BTC purchases and options trades funded with shareholder capital, and that losses from its derivatives program were not fully disclosed. In a detailed public post on X, Gerovich contends that the company has consistently reported all Bitcoin purchases, option strategies and borrowings, and that readers have misinterpreted the financial statements rather than uncovering any misconduct.

Key takeaways

• Metaplanet disclosed four Bitcoin purchases in September 2025 totaling 11,832 BTC (1,009 on Sept. 1; 136 on Sept. 8; 5,419 on Sept. 22; 5,268 on Sept. 30), with the company asserting prompt disclosure for each move.
• The firm’s public dashboard corroborates the September buys, and Bitcointreasuries.net also lists the transactions along with related announcements and filings.
• Gerovich said selling put options and put spreads were designed to acquire BTC below spot and monetize volatility for shareholders, rather than betting on short-term price swings.
• Metaplanet reported fiscal 2025 revenue of 8.9 billion yen (about $58 million), up roughly 738% year over year, but posted a net loss near $680 million due to a decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
• As the debate around Bitcoin treasury strategies grows, Metaplanet’s disclosures and borrowing activities—including a credit facility set up in late 2025—remain under scrutiny by investors and regulators alike.
• Beyond Metaplanet, the sector faces broader questions about the sustainability of BTC-heavy treasuries, with peers such as Strategy posting large quarterly losses despite signaling a long-term outlook.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The controversy surrounding Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury approach unfolds as crypto markets experience liquidity shifts and ongoing scrutiny of corporate crypto holdings. The sector’s dynamics are further colored by notable market moves and annual results from other BTC holders, including Strategy, which reported a $12.4 billion net loss in Q4 2025 as Bitcoin declined, highlighting the tension between revenue opportunities from BTC-related activities and material impairment risks tied to price swings.

Why it matters

For investors tracking crypto-native treasuries, Metaplanet’s disclosures illuminate how such firms balance disclosure requirements with the volatility of digital assets. The company’s strategy—using option structures to monetize volatility while seeking BTC below spot via puts—shows a deliberate approach to acquiring exposure without entirely relying on directional bets. The earnings mix, where revenue from Bitcoin-related activities rose substantially while the balance sheet reflected non-cash losses tied to price movements, underscores a broader accounting challenge: treating asset impairments as business costs can mask underlying revenue growth and cash-generation potential.

From a governance standpoint, the incident underscores the importance of transparent, timely disclosures as markets increasingly scrutinize how corporate treasuries operate in real time. The availability of data on Metaplanet’s public analytics dashboard and third-party trackers adds a layer of accountability, but it also raises questions about the sufficiency of disclosures for complex derivatives programs and loan facilities tied to crypto assets. The sector’s trajectory will hinge on how well such disclosures align with investor expectations and how regulators interpret leverage and protections within crypto-backed borrowings.

For builders and users in the crypto space, this episode reinforces the need for robust risk management and clear accounting treatment for digital assets. As platforms experiment with diversified revenue streams tied to BTC, including options income and structured borrowings, maintaining clarity around valuation, impairment, and liquidity is essential to sustain investor confidence during periods of price volatility.

What to watch next

• Updates to Metaplanet’s disclosures page detailing borrowing terms, collateral, and facility conditions following the October 2025 credit line.
• New BTC purchase or sale disclosures that align with the September timeline and any subsequent months, including any changes to the company’s public dashboard.
• Additional commentary from Metaplanet’s leadership on X and any subsequent investor communications clarifying accounting treatment of asset impairments.
• Public trackers like Bitcointreasuries.net updating holdings in response to new disclosures or market moves.
• Regulatory or market developments affecting crypto-treasury strategies, including any updates to lending terms or disclosure requirements for listed BTC-holding vehicles.

Sources & verification

• Metaplanet analytics page: https://metaplanet.jp/en/analytics
• Bitcointreasuries.net listing: http://bitcointreasuries.net
• X post by Metaplanet on September purchases: https://x.com/Metaplanet/status/1962340921049309536
• Gerovich’s explanatory post: https://x.com/gerovich/status/2024646152877133907
• September BTC purchases previously disclosed: https://x.com/tenb1/status/2024099604044890455
• Metaplanet revenue and impairment discussion: https://cointelegraph.com/news/metaplanet-revenue-jumps-738-percent-bitcoin-generates-95-percent-revenue
• Impairment-related revenue context: https://cointelegraph.com/news/metaplanet-raises-revenue-forecast-bitcoin-impairment
• Bitcoin-backed borrowings and disclosures: https://metaplanet.jp/en/shareholders/disclosures
• Related coverage of BTC treasury strategies and performance: https://cointelegraph.com/news/strategy-reports-12b-loss-q4-2025
• Big questions on macro and gold references: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/china-stockpiling-gold-yaun-global-reserve-us-dollar/

Metaplanet defends Bitcoin treasury strategy amid investor scrutiny

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits at the center of Metaplanet’s corporate strategy, a fact that has drawn sharp questions from observers about disclosure timeliness, asset valuation and the company’s approach to risk management. In a detailed post on X, Simon Gerovich laid out the sequence of events that led to September 2025’s Bitcoin purchases and the accompanying derivative strategies designed to generate income while controlling entry points for BTC exposure. He emphasized that the company’s real-time dashboard and public disclosures provide a transparent view of the purchases, option strategies and borrowing activity that underpin the treasury program.

According to Metaplanet, the September buys were executed in four distinct transactions: 1,009 BTC on Sept. 1; 136 BTC on Sept. 8; 5,419 BTC on Sept. 22; and 5,268 BTC on Sept. 30. The total of these maneuvers equates to 11,832 BTC acquired over the month, a figure the company asserts was promptly disclosed. The public dashboard, which is accessible to investors and researchers alike, corroborates these entry points and offers a transparent ledger of the company’s Bitcoin holdings and related activity. The Bitcointreasuries.net tracker, which aggregates corporate BTC holdings and their disclosures, also reflects these transactions and the accompanying public announcements.

Gerovich defended the use of put options and put spreads as a mechanism to acquire BTC at levels below the spot price while monetizing volatility in a way that benefits shareholders, rather than speculating on sprint-to-the-close price moves. The approach, he argued, is aligned with a risk-managed treasury strategy that seeks to build a long-term Bitcoin position through measured, disclosed steps rather than abrupt, undisclosed trades. He further highlighted that the company has historically disclosed all relevant purchases, borrowings and option strategies, urging readers to examine the financial statements with this context in mind.

Beyond operational disclosures, Metaplanet’s 2025 financial results painted a mixed picture. The company reported revenue of 8.9 billion yen (roughly $58 million), a surge of about 738% year over year, reflecting the strength of its Bitcoin-related activities. Yet the firm also recorded a net loss of approximately $680 million, attributed to the marked impairment in the value of its Bitcoin holdings as prices slumped. Gerovich contended that non-cash impairment charges are an accounting consequence of asset valuation rather than a reflection of trading missteps or misalignment with the treasury plan. In other words, the revenue line demonstrates activity and monetization potential, while the impairment line reflects the price-driven realities of holding a volatile asset.

Metaplanet has not shied away from highlighting the non-cash nature of certain losses, arguing that the accounting treatment of digital assets does not imply strategic failure. The company underlined that it established a credit facility in October 2025 and disclosed subsequent drawdowns in November and December, including information on borrowing amounts, collateral and general terms on its disclosures page. The lender’s identity and specific rates were kept confidential at the counterparty’s request, Gerovich noted, but he stressed that the borrowing terms were favorable and that the balance sheet remained strong despite Bitcoin’s movements.

The broader industry backdrop adds another layer of context to Metaplanet’s defenses. A cluster of Bitcoin treasury plays has come under scrutiny as investors weigh the sustainability of long-term BTC-based financing strategies. Strategy, historically the largest corporate holder of BTC, reported a substantial quarterly loss in late 2025 as Bitcoin’s price deteriorated, even as the company emphasized a longer horizon and a robust capital structure. This juxtaposition—strong revenue streams from BTC activities against sizable impairments in asset values—helps explain why market participants are closely scrutinizing disclosure practices, risk controls and governance around crypto treasuries.

As Metaplanet continues to publish data and respond to scrutiny, the industry will likely watch not only for new purchases or borrowings but also for the consistency and clarity of its accounting disclosures. The balance between revenue growth from Bitcoin-derived activities and the non-cash losses tied to asset valuations will remain a focal point for investors evaluating the viability of BTC-heavy treasury models in a volatile market environment.

Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has reignited debate over the cryptocurrency’s outlook, warning that a break below $50,000 could trigger a steep drop toward $20,000, an 84% decline from its all-time high.

Sell Bitcoin now, says Peter Schiff

In a post on X, Schiff argued that “if Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K,” adding that such a move would mirror previous drawdowns but unfold under very different market conditions.

“I know Bitcoin has done that before,” he wrote, “but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake. Sell Bitcoin now!”

Schiff, a prominent gold advocate and frequent crypto skeptic, has long maintained that Bitcoin’s price cycles resemble speculative bubbles fueled by liquidity and investor enthusiasm. His latest warning comes amid renewed volatility in digital asset markets, where traders are closely watching key technical levels.

An 84% retracement would echo past bear markets. Bitcoin has previously suffered drawdowns exceeding 70% following euphoric rallies, including after its 2017 peak and again following its 2021 high. However, the asset’s structure has evolved significantly, with spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasuries, and institutional allocators now holding sizable positions.

Schiff’s latest warning quickly drew pushback on X, where critics accused the longtime gold advocate of repeating a decade-old bearish script.

One user claimed investors who followed his past calls on silver were left “stuck in it for 20 years,” referencing the metal’s prolonged stagnation after previous peaks. Others pointed to Schiff’s history of urging investors to sell Bitcoin at far lower levels, noting that he has been issuing similar warnings since the asset traded near $100.

A separate response argued that Bitcoin’s “intrinsic value” lies in its censorship-resistant settlement network, global liquidity, and lack of gatekeepers, framing its volatility not as a flaw but as the market’s process of pricing a new financial system in real time.

The exchange shows the entrenched divide between Schiff and Bitcoin advocates, with critics portraying his latest $20,000 forecast as a continuation of a long-running skepticism that has so far failed to derail the cryptocurrency’s broader upward trajectory.

Still, Schiff’s comments highlight a persistent divide in the investment community: whether Bitcoin’s growing institutional footprint makes it more resilient or more vulnerable in the event of a sharp downturn.

Aztec (AZTEC) surged about 82% in 24 hours to around $0.035 after South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb both moved to list the token with local currency pairs, triggering a wave of KRW-denominated buying into a thinly traded market.

Korean listings still matter because they flip a token from being crypto-only to something a huge retail base can buy directly with local currency.

South Korea consistently ranks among the top three countries by crypto trading volume relative to population, and Upbit alone regularly matches or exceeds Coinbase in daily spot turnover during active sessions.

A KRW pair cuts out the extra hop through USDT, plugs into Korea’s unusually active spot trading culture, and puts the token on the screens people in the region actually watch. And that kind of exposure can be transformative for smaller-cap tokens like AZTEC.

Traders often treat new Upbit and Bithumb listings as momentum events, rushing in before liquidity deepens and before the initial premium fades. The pattern has played out repeatedly — tokens like VIRTUAL have printed double-digit moves on Korean listing announcements alone, regardless of what the underlying project was doing at the time.

In thin books, that dynamic creates the kind of vertical candle AZTEC printed. Once prices gap higher locally, arbitrageurs step in, buying on global venues and selling into the Korean bid, which helps drag prices up across the board. The so-called “kimchi premium” — the persistent spread between Korean and international prices — tends to widen sharply during these episodes before narrowing as arb flow catches up.

Aztec itself is pitched as an Ethereum-based, privacy-focused layer 2 that uses zero-knowledge proofs to enable encrypted transactions on a public chain. That gives the token a narrative beyond the listing event.

The premium had narrowed slightly by the Asian evening session as arbitrage flow caught up and the surge showed signs of exhaustion.

[PRESS RELEASE – GIG HARBOR, Washington, February 20th, 2026]

IP Strategy Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: IPST) (the “Company” or “IP Strategy”), the first company to adopt a treasury reserve policy centered on the $IP token, today announced the board of directors has authorized a share repurchase program whereby the Company may buy back up to 1 million shares of its outstanding shares of common stock through December 31, 2026.

As of February 18, 2026, IP Strategy had 10,259,226 shares of its common stock outstanding. Assuming the full execution of buying back 1 million shares, this would constitute a nearly 10% reduction in the number of outstanding shares of the Company. The Company may acquire shares through open market purchases or privately negotiated transactions, including through a Rule 10b5-1 plan, at the discretion of management and on terms that management determines to be advisable.

IP Strategy is the largest independent owner of $IP tokens – the native token of the Story Layer 1 blockchain – with a current holding of 53.2 million tokens. The Company also recently began the transition from self-custodied validator work to third-party custodied validator work, a move which is expected to effectively double its related yield to 10% or more annually for 2026.

“The Board’s decision to authorize a share repurchase program reflects its belief that the market does not currently take into account the inherent value of our 53.2 million $IP tokens, nor the growth in higher-margin recurring revenue anticipated in 2026 from the transition to third-party custodied validator services,” said Justin Stiefel, Chief Executive Officer of IP Strategy. “When combined with the previously-announced streamlining and cost reduction plans for 2026, the implementation of a share repurchase program at this time reflects a very high degree of confidence in our long-term strategy and growth potential.”

About IP Strategy

IP Strategy Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: IPST) is the first Nasdaq-listed company to hold $IP tokens as a primary reserve asset and operate a validator for the Story Protocol. The Company provides public market investors broad exposure to the $80 trillion programmable intellectual property economy in a regulated equity format. IP Strategy’s treasury reserve of $IP tokens provides direct participation in the Story ecosystem, which enables on-chain registration, licensing, and monetization of intellectual property.

About Story

Story is the AI-native blockchain network powering the $IP token and making intellectual property programmable, traceable, and monetizable in real time. Backed by $136 million from a16z crypto, Polychain Capital, and Samsung Ventures, Story launched its mainnet in February 2025 and has rapidly become a leading infrastructure for tokenized intellectual property. Story allows creators and enterprises to turn media, data, and AI-generated content into legally enforceable digital assets with embedded rights, enabling automated licensing and new markets for intellectual property across AI and entertainment.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements, including statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by words such as “aims,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “could,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “goal,” “intends,” “may,” “plans,” “possible,” “potential,” “seeks,” “will,” and variations of these words or similar expressions that are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Any such statements in this press release that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the Company’s adoption of a share repurchase program and the number and percentage of outstanding shares it may repurchase, the timing of the implementation of the Company’s share repurchase program, the shift to third-party custody of its $IP tokens, the expected increased yield from the Company’s validator operations, and the effectiveness of the Company’s proposed cost-saving measures.

Any forward-looking statements in this press release are based on IP Strategy’s current expectations, estimates and projections only as of the date of this release and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and adversely from those set forth in or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks related to the volatility of the Company’s common stock and any correlation between the Company’s stock price and the price of $IP tokens, the legal, commercial, regulatory and technical uncertainty regarding digital assets generally, and expectations with respect to future performance and growth. These and other risks concerning IP Strategy’s programs and operations are described in additional detail in its registration statement on Form S-1 initially filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on August 26, 2025, as amended by Amendment No. 1 filed on October 16, 2025, Amendment No. 2 filed on December 12, 2025 and Amendment No. 3 filed on December 19, 2025, its latest annual report on Form 10-K, subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and any other subsequent filings with the SEC. IP Strategy explicitly disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except to the extent required by law.

TLDR:

• Bank Stack operates across three integrated planes: blockchain platform, money and assets, and services and governance layer.

• Prividium enables institutions to run private, compliant transactions while inheriting Ethereum’s security and global settlement guarantees.

• Phylax adds pre-committed assertions and circuit breakers that block unsafe transactions before execution, not after settlement occurs.

• Platforms like Fireblocks already integrate with Prividium, letting banks reuse existing policy stacks for new institutional networks.

Bank Stack is emerging as a new institutional architecture for on-chain finance. ZKsync and Phylax have jointly introduced this framework, anchored on Ethereum and powered by Prividium.

The architecture is designed to address fragmented payment rails, rising compliance costs, and security risks. Financial institutions are no longer debating whether blockchain matters.

They are now choosing which architecture will run their settlement, liquidity, and balance sheet operations.

A Three-Layer Architecture Built for Institutions

Bank Stack operates across three integrated planes. The blockchain platform layer combines Ethereum with Prividium for private execution, compliance primitives, and interoperability.

Above that sits the money and assets layer, which covers tokenized deposits, stablecoins, and real-world assets. The third plane handles services and governance, including identity, custody, policy enforcement, and reporting.

Prividium serves as the institutional transaction layer at the foundation. It is a private, compliant, ZK-powered blockchain that remains anchored to Ethereum.

Institutions run confidential transaction environments while inheriting Ethereum’s security and global interoperability. Execution and data stay private, while ZK proofs posted to Ethereum provide integrity and finality.

ZKsync’s L1 interoperability solution connects any ZK Chain to Ethereum natively. Institutions no longer need to sacrifice governance, privacy, or execution environments for access to public market liquidity.

Prividiums become the first architecture where both can coexist. This removes one of the largest structural barriers to institutional blockchain adoption.

Compliance is built into the infrastructure surface rather than added on top. Prividiums embed permissioned participation, KYC/AML enforcement, and auditability directly into the system.

This shifts compliance from an operational burden to an architectural guarantee. Policy becomes enforceable in production, not just observable.

Circuit Breakers and Onchain Money Primitives

ZKsync shared via its official channel: “The Bank Stack is not a product. It is an institutional architecture for on-chain finance.” Phylax adds execution-time controls through pre-committed assertions and invariant enforcement during block building.

Transactions that violate safety conditions are excluded before execution. This prevents catastrophic states rather than detecting them after settlement.

Phylax also supports on-premises deployment, colocated with block production. There is no critical-path SaaS dependency and no custody of keys or funds.

Private assertions keep internal controls confidential inside an institution. Risk teams, underwriters, and regulators can use verifiable evidence for governance and coverage workflows.

The monetary foundation of Bank Stack includes tokenized deposits, fiat-backed stablecoins, and tokenized cash equivalents. These primitives compose with identity and policy controls.

Real-world assets such as tokenized securities, funds, and collateralized instruments are also supported. Platforms like Fireblocks already integrate with Prividium, allowing banks to reuse existing policy stacks.

Together, Ethereum provides global settlement, Prividium provides private execution, and Phylax provides deterministic operational controls.

Phemex integrates Ondo tokenized equities, giving 10m users onchain access to 14 major stocks and ETFs.

The platform describes the integration as part of its expansion into real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, allowing users to access traditional financial instruments through blockchain technology while maintaining digital asset liquidity.

Phemex stated the initiative represents part of its strategy to bridge traditional finance and decentralized finance platforms.

Founded in 2019, Phemex operates as a cryptocurrency exchange offering spot trading, derivatives trading, copy trading, and wealth management products, according to company information. The platform reports serving more than 10 million traders globally.

Historical data depicts XRP rallies followed periods of tight liquidity, though sustained moves required expanding USD market depth.

XRP’s market structure is showing signs of renewed liquidity compression, as evidenced by exchange flows and on-chain liquidity conditions aligning in a way that has historically preceded increased volatility.

Data tracking Binance exchange inflows revealed that large deposits previously surged ahead of a major XRP rally, a pattern often associated with rising volatility rather than immediate selling.

Fragile Market Setup

CryptoQuant explained that while exchange inflows are commonly interpreted as potential sell-side pressure, past behavior indicates that they can also mark positioning phases before sharp price expansions. During the earlier rally period, USD liquidity, which represents the depth of capital supporting XRP markets, expanded significantly. This allowed prices to support upward momentum despite high volatility.

Current conditions, however, differ, as USD liquidity has been declining. Such a setting points to thinner market depth compared with prior expansion phases. Reduced depth typically increases sensitivity to flows and amplifies price reactions.

On the supply side, the amount of XRP actively available for trading dropped sharply ahead of the previous breakout, a period that marked the start of the rally. That same pattern is beginning to reappear, as XRP liquidity is trending lower once again. In past cycles, similar setups, where exchange inflows spiked while overall liquidity tightened, were followed by sharp increases in price volatility.

Whether those moves turned into steady trends depended largely on how much capital entered the market. Right now, exchange inflows remain relatively contained, but liquidity on both the USD and XRP side is shrinking. This points to a thinner market than during earlier expansion phases, where even modest changes in buying or selling pressure can have an outsized impact on price.

With less liquidity to absorb trades, XRP’s price may react more quickly if activity picks up, which makes market conditions even more fragile than they appear on the surface.

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XRP Most Talked-About Asset After Bitcoin

Even against this backdrop, investor interest in the asset has not faded. As recently reported by CryptoPotato, XRP has emerged as the second-most talked-about digital asset after Bitcoin, as per Grayscale. The asset manager observed that the crypto continues to attract significant attention due to steady interest from its user base and investors, even as market sentiment remains cautious.

Speaking during Ripple Community Day, Grayscale’s Head of Product and Research, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, described XRP as having a large and committed community, and added that client inquiries about the token remain consistently high. Advisors at Grayscale have reported that the token frequently ranks just behind Bitcoin in terms of discussion volume.

His remarks came after the most recent meeting in the White House.

Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse said he now sees a 90% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law by April 2026. He described the outlook as stronger than before, citing steady legislative progress in Washington.

According to the CEO, the improved odds reflect recent engagement between lawmakers, the White House, crypto firms, and banking representatives. He noted that discussions have shifted from broad disagreements to resolving specific policy details.

Legislative Momentum Builds in Washington

Garlinghouse shared his updated view during an appearance on Fox Business, pointing to growing bipartisan interest in market structure legislation. He said recent meetings helped narrow differences that had previously slowed progress.

That momentum follows the CLARITY Act’s passage in the House of Representatives in 2025 with bipartisan support. Senate consideration has taken longer, though observers say the current pace signals renewed urgency.

To maintain progress, officials involved in the talks reportedly aim to settle remaining policy disputes by March 1, 2026. Supporters see the timeline as critical, given that legislative schedules often tighten ahead of midterm elections.

Stablecoins and Regulatory Clarity at the Center

The CLARITY Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, seeks to establish a unified federal framework for digital assets. It would define oversight roles by assigning assets that resemble securities to the securities regulator and commodity-like assets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Supporters argue that clearer boundaries would reduce legal uncertainty and provide consistent guidance for firms operating in the United States. They say this could lower compliance risks and support broader participation from established financial institutions.

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Despite this support, stablecoins remain a central issue in negotiations, particularly whether issuers can offer yield-style features on reserve-backed holdings. Banking groups warn such practices could affect deposits, while crypto firms argue restrictions may push activity to other jurisdictions.

Against that backdrop, Garlinghouse said prolonged uncertainty has limited innovation, citing Ripple’s legal experience as partial but incomplete progress. He stressed that individual court outcomes cannot replace clear, industry-wide rules.

Market expectations have also shifted, with prediction platforms such as Polymarket showing rising confidence in passage within the proposed timeframe. Analysts view the coming months as a key window before political dynamics complicate the process further.

Private capital firm Blue Owl Capital, with over $307 billion in assets under management, has permanently halted investor redemptions at a retail-focused private debt fund.

The suspension has triggered concerns among economists. Furthermore, it has raised a key question about whether the private credit market could impact the broader crypto market.

Everything to Know About Blue Owl’s Redemption Changes

According to Bloomberg, the private credit firm has seen a rise in withdrawal requests in recent months. This was partly driven by investor concerns over its exposure to software companies amid the artificial intelligence surge.

FT noted that Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) has been closed to redemptions since November. The firm had previously indicated it might reopen withdrawals later this quarter, but it has now abandoned that plan. 

Earlier this week, the company revealed that quarterly redemptions would no longer be available to OBDC II investors. Instead, the firm plans to distribute cash through periodic payments tied to asset sales.

“We’re not halting redemptions, we are simply changing the method by which we’re providing redemptions,” Blue Owl co-President Craig Packer told analysts on a conference call Thursday, as per Reuters.

According to Packer, payouts to fund holders are expected to be roughly 30% of the fund’s value, up from the prior 5% cap.

“We are returning six times as much capital and returning it to all shareholders over the next 45 days. In the coming quarters we will continue to pursue this plan to return capital to OBDC II investors,” Blue Owl commented on its latest plan.

Blue Owl also moved to sell approximately $1.4 billion in assets from three of its credit funds. Bloomberg revealed that Chicago-based insurer Kuvare, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, and British Columbia Investment Management Corp. purchased the debt, according to people familiar with the matter. Blue Owl added that the loans were sold at 99.7% of par value.

Private Credit Market Faces Growing Strain 

Market analyst Crypto Rover suggested that Blue Owl’s redemption freeze reflects mounting pressures across the $3 trillion private credit sector. He outlined several warning signs. 

First, about 40% of direct lending firms now report negative free operating cash flow. Default rates among middle-market borrowers have climbed to 4.55% and continue to rise. 

Notably, 30% of firms with debt due before 2027 show negative EBITDA, making refinancing challenging. Meanwhile, credit downgrades have outpaced upgrades for seven straight quarters.

“If the stress continues in the private credit market, it’ll first impact the small businesses for whom the private credit market is a critical funding source. Additionally, it’ll cause refinancing costs to go up and will result in more defaults, which will create a vicious cycle. The only way to stop this is by lowering interest rates and providing liquidity,” the analyst added.

Economist Mohamed A. El-Erian questioned whether the situation could represent an early warning signal similar to those seen in 2007 before the 2008 global financial crisis.

Implications for Crypto Markets

Stress in the private credit market does not automatically translate into direct contagion for crypto, but indirect linkages deserve attention. A recent analysis from BeInCrypto indicates Bitcoin has closely tracked US software equities.

A meaningful share of private credit is allocated to software companies, linking these markets through shared growth-risk exposure. If lending conditions tighten or refinancing risks rise, valuations in the software sector could come under pressure. 

Rising defaults, widening credit spreads, and constrained capital access would likely weigh on growth stocks. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with high-growth equities during tightening cycles, sustained weakness in software could spill over into crypto markets. 

That said, this remains a second-order macro effect rather than direct structural exposure. The critical variable is the broader financial response. If stress leads to tighter financial conditions, Bitcoin could face downside alongside tech. 

If it triggers monetary easing or renewed liquidity support, crypto may ultimately benefit. For now, the risk is cyclical and liquidity-driven, not systemic to digital assets themselves.