Crypto World
Bloomberg analyst warns Bitcoin price could dip to $10K
A senior Bloomberg Intelligence strategist has warned that Bitcoin could face a severe collapse toward $10,000 as global markets show signs of stress similar to past financial crises.
Summary
- A Bloomberg analyst warned bitcoin price could fall toward $10,000.
- The call is linked to market stress and reduced liquidity.
- Bitcoin is trading near $63,000 after recent losses.
In recent social media posts in early Feb. 2026, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone shared the outlook, comparing current conditions to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2000–2001 dot-com downturn.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $63,000 after falling to around $60,000 on Feb. 5. Since its 2025 peak of over $126,000, the asset has dropped by almost 50%. Pressure on the cryptocurrency market has increased due to large liquidations, exchange-traded fund withdrawals, and low risk appetite.
McGlone links Bitcoin risk to macro stress
According to McGlone, 2026 will be challenging for traders due to reduced liquidity, slower growth, and fading speculative excess.
In his recent commentary, he pointed to what he described as “post-inflation deflation,” reduced central bank support, and years of aggressive risk-taking that are now being unwound. He also cited potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy, including hawkish appointments and slower rate cuts, as factors limiting liquidity.
According to McGlone, these conditions resemble periods that preceded major asset crashes in the past. In that context, he said Bitcoin could revisit levels near $10,000, which would represent an additional drop of more than 85% from current prices.
He has made similar warnings before. In late 2025, McGlone raised concerns about bubble-like behavior in crypto and warned of deep corrections. While those earlier calls did not play out in full, his latest comments link the risk more directly to wider market weakness.
McGlone has also highlighted persistent ETF outflows, lower speculative activity, and what he calls a “great reversion” after years of easy money and rising asset prices.
Signs of capitulation raise short-term uncertainty
Other analysts see growing evidence that the market is entering a capitulation phase, even if they do not share McGlone’s extreme downside target.
In a Feb. 6 post on X, Jamie Coutts, a crypto market analyst at Real Vision, said pressure in derivatives and spot markets is intensifying. He noted that Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility Index has reached 88.55, close to the level of 105 recorded during the FTX collapse.
Coutts also pointed to Coinbase’s eighth-largest daily trading volume on record at $3.34 billion, or roughly 54,000 BTC, as traders rushed to re-position. At the same time, daily relative strength index fell to 15.64, below levels seen during the March 2020 pandemic crash.
“The current margin calls and forced liquidations are typical of a capitulation phase,” Coutts wrote, adding that market bottoms often form over days or weeks rather than in a single session.
Based on past averages and actual price levels, some analysts argue that Bitcoin may find support in the $50,000 to $60,000 range. Some believe that the current decline is not the beginning of a complete collapse, but rather a reset following sharp gains in 2024 and 2025.
However, the risks are still high. If prices decline once more, large corporate holders, mining companies, and highly leveraged traders may experience additional strain. As the market looks for stability, traders are bracing themselves for more volatility in the coming weeks due to limited liquidity and fading confidence.
Talk about frenzied trading.
On Thursday, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, tickered as IBIT, hit a wild record with over 284 million shares traded, per Nasdaq data. That’s a whopping $10 billion-plus in notional value.
To put it in perspective, that smashed the old record of 169.21 million shares from Nov. 21 by a massive 169%.
The record volume came as IBIT plunged 13% to under $35, the lowest since Oct. 11, 2024, extending the year-to-date loss to 27%. Prices peaked at a high of $71.82 in early October.
The fund processed redemptions totaling $175.33 million on Thursday, accounting for 40% of the cumulative net outflow of $434.11 million across 11 funds, according to SoSoValue.
IBIT, the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin fund, holds physical coins and is designed to mirror the spot price of the world’s top cryptocurrency, which has been declining recently, crashing to nearly $60,000 on Thursday. The fund has been a preferred alternative investment vehicle for institutions seeking exposure to cryptocurrency through regulated products.
Capitulation hints
The combination of record volume and price crash often signals capitulation – long-term holders throwing in the towel and liquidating their holdings at a loss.
It marks the bear market’s peak selling phase, potentially signaling the start of a slow, painful bottoming process.
IBIT options trading on Thursday told the same story. Longer duration put options. or contracts used to hedge against downturns, reached a record premium of over 25 volatility points above call options (bullish bets), according to data from MarketChameleon.
That kind of heavy put bias often signals peak fear as well.
That said, nothing’s guaranteed, as bear markets can drag on longer than even dip buyers can stay liquid.
More than $2.6 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, a development that could reshape short-term price dynamics as traders unwind hedges and reposition.
The event comes amid elevated volatility, defensive positioning, and growing evidence that institutional participants are actively hedging downside risk.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Could Trigger Volatility as $2.6 Billion in Contracts Settle
Data from derivatives markets shows Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the expiry, with roughly $2.2 billion in notional value tied to contracts. Ethereum represents an additional $419 million, bringing the combined total to more than $2.6 billion.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,686, significantly below its max pain level of $80,000, the price at which the greatest number of options would expire worthless.
Total open interest stands at 33,984 contracts, including 21,396 calls and 12,588 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.59.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading around $1,905, also below its $2,400 max pain level. Total open interest stands at 219,034 contracts, with call open interest of 113,427 and put open interest of 105,607.
The put-to-call ratio of 0.93 suggests a more balanced, yet still cautious, positioning compared with Bitcoin.
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The gap between spot prices and max pain levels suggests that option sellers could benefit if prices remain suppressed into expiry. Meanwhile, traders holding directional bets may face losses if markets remain range-bound.
Notably, today’s expiring options are significantly lower than the $8.8 billion contracts that settled last Friday, because the January 30 event was for the month.
Institutions Hedge as Volatility Climbs
Nevertheless, analysts at Greeks.live say derivatives markets are showing clear signs of stress and repositioning, with volatility rising sharply and traders moving to protect portfolios.
“The $60,000 range [for Bitcoin] represents the consolidation zone prior to the Trump rally, where support remains relatively strong. Should a rapid dip occur in the short term, it may present a buying opportunity,” they wrote.
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According to the analysts, options data indicate institutions and large players are urgently hedging and placing bets.
Bitcoin’s current-month implied volatility (IV) has surged to 100%, doubling since the start of the year, while the main contracts’ IV has also breached 50%, climbing 15% over two weeks.
With skew at a two-year low, the experts say options market structure is now entirely dominated by bearish sentiment, though some lottery-style buying of deeply out-of-the-money options has emerged.
“The market currently exhibits excessive panic, and conditions for a sustained BTC crash remain insufficient. Rapid risk-off liquidation could actually facilitate a market rebound,” Greeks.live analysts wrote.
Indeed, the market is in panic mode, and with good reason, as the Bitcoin price steadily edges toward the $60,000 psychological level.
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The surge in implied volatility to 100% highlights the scale of uncertainty currently priced into Bitcoin markets, reflecting expectations of larger-than-normal price swings.
Expiry Could Reset Market Flows
Elsewhere, Deribit analysts note that options positioning is clustered around key strike levels, which may be influencing price behavior ahead of expiry.
“With protection demand already increasing and volatility repriced, this expiry could act as a short-term reset in dealer hedging flows. Expiry may remove positioning-related ‘gravity’ around big strikes, so price behavior after 08:00 UTC may differ from the days leading into expiry,” Deribit analysts stated.
The options expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit. If those dynamics play out, markets could see increased volatility immediately after expiry as hedging flows unwind and liquidity conditions shift.
While bearish sentiment currently dominates derivatives positioning, panic-driven markets can sometimes produce sharp rebounds, particularly if large liquidations clear excess leverage.
The investment arm of stablecoin issuer Tether has acquired a $150 million stake in the precious metals platform Gold.com to expand access to tokenized gold.
Tether said on Thursday that it acquired an approximately 12% stake in the company, which will integrate Tether Gold (XAUt), its gold-backed cryptocurrency, into Gold.com’s platform.
Gold.com is a publicly listed online marketplace that sells gold and other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, to several markets, including the US.
“Gold has played a central role in preserving value for centuries, particularly during periods of monetary stress and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. “Gold exposure is not a trade for Tether; it is a hedge and a long-term allocation to protect our user base and ourselves in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable.”
He added the company’s investment in Gold.com “reflects a long-term belief that gold should be as accessible, transferable, and usable as modern digital money, without compromising on physical backing or ownership.”
Tether explores stablecoin payments for gold
Tether and Gold.com are also exploring options to enable customers to purchase physical gold with Tether’s flagship stablecoin USDt (USDT) and its new stablecoin specifically for the US market, USAt (USAT), which it launched with crypto-native bank Anchorage Digital on Jan. 27.
Related: Bhutan makes second Bitcoin transfer in a week, worth $22M
Tether’s expanded gold offerings come as gold rallied more than 80% over the past 12 months to $5,600 on Jan. 29, before cooling off to $4,800 at the time of writing.
The partnership comes after Tether announced earlier on Thursday that it made a $100 million equity investment in Anchorage, a move that helps boost adoption of the USAt stablecoin in the US market as the bank looks to go public next year.
Tether reported a profit of $10 billion in 2025, earned mostly through interest on US Treasury holdings backing its $185.6 billion USDt reserve.
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US equities rebounded as the S&P 500 climbed to $6,976, before correcting. Earlier in the week, the benchmark index closed just shy of its prior record before briefly moving higher in subsequent trading, while risk appetite in equities contrasted sharply with continued weakness across crypto markets.
At the same time, Bitcoin continued to underperform, with selling pressure accelerating as broader capital flows favored traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced in recent sessions, reinforcing the growing split between equity and crypto sentiment.
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AI Stocks and Small Caps Drive Equity Momentum
The latest leg higher in the S&P 500 was led by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, as investors rotated back into AI-linked names after a brief pause driven by valuation concerns.
Alphabet rose to a new record, Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, and chipmakers posted broad-based gains as demand expectations firmed.
Beneath the surface, market breadth also improved. Small-cap stocks outpaced megacaps, with the Russell 2000 gaining around 3% year-to-date.
That relative strength is often interpreted as a signal of confidence in domestic growth and has added support to broader stock market predictions that point to continued upside as long as earnings momentum holds.
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Earnings, Not Valuations, Now Anchor the Rally
Corporate results remain the central driver of the market’s advance. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter, up sharply from estimates earlier in January.
More than 80% of reporting firms have exceeded expectations so far, according to FactSet data cited by market strategists.
Recent research suggests earnings growth has accounted for roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in the current cycle, marking a shift away from multiple expansion as the primary engine of gains. This transition has softened concerns around an AI-driven bubble, as profits and cash flow increasingly justify higher prices.
Macro Backdrop Keeps Risk Appetite Intact
The broader macro environment has so far supported equity risk-taking. US GDP growth remains near 3.3%, inflation trends are relatively contained, and productivity indicators have improved. Even political disruptions, including a federal government shutdown that delayed key data releases, failed to dent market confidence materially.
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Major US indices posted solid gains alongside the S&P 500, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% YTD. But the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 2.6%.
Investors now look ahead to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals for confirmation that financial conditions will remain supportive.
Bitcoin Weakness Highlights Cross-Market Divergence
While equities pushed higher, crypto markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin price dropped below $65,000, marking its lowest level in roughly a year and extending a broader downtrend that has weighed on digital assets.
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The decline has come amid fading momentum, reduced speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward equities offering visible earnings growth.
The contrasting performance reflects a growing divergence between traditional risk assets and crypto, at least in the near term.
While both markets can benefit from liquidity-driven rallies, current conditions favor assets tied more directly to corporate profits.
Outlook
The S&P 500’s move to new highs reflects a rally increasingly grounded in earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations. AI investment, small-cap strength, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside case, even as record levels invite selective caution.
Bitcoin’s slide to a one-year low highlights where risk appetite is thinning, but for now, equity markets remain firmly in control of the broader risk narrative.
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, announced a major expansion of its market surveillance and enforcement framework aimed at preventing insider trading and market manipulation across its platform.
Summary
- Kalshi has expanded its market surveillance framework to prevent insider trading and market manipulation on its regulated prediction markets platform.
- The company formed an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee and partnered with Solidus Labs to strengthen trade monitoring and enforcement.
- The move positions Kalshi as a compliance-focused alternative as prediction markets face growing regulatory and public scrutiny.
The updates were shared on February 5, 2026, as part of a broad initiative to boost trading integrity.
Kalshi tightens market surveillance
Founded in 2018, Kalshi established prediction markets as a regulated financial asset class in the United States. Unlike many offshore trading platforms, Kalshi operates under oversight from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enforcing rules similar to those in traditional financial markets.
At the center of Kalshi’s announcement is the formation of an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee. The committee includes industry experts such as Lisa Pinheiro, Managing Principal at Analysis Group, and Daniel Taylor, Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, known for his work on fraud and insider trading detection.
The group will review flagged trades, monitor investigations, and issue public quarterly reports on enforcement activity.
Kalshi also unveiled partnerships with Solidus Labs, a provider of advanced trade surveillance technology, and other market integrity advisors. The Solidus platform will augment Kalshi’s internal systems with deeper data analysis, helping detect sophisticated manipulation or suspicious trading patterns across more than 4,000 active markets.
The enhanced surveillance measures come amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets worldwide. Platforms like Polymarket have faced criticism and controversy over alleged insider advantage and market manipulation, leading lawmakers to consider new regulations targeting such practices.
The announcement also follows recent legal friction involving prediction markets more broadly. In Nevada, a state court recently declined to immediately block Coinbase’s prediction markets, which operate in partnership with Kalshi, after state regulators sought an emergency halt under gaming laws.
Vitalik Buterin warns copy-paste Layer 2s and generic EVM chains are stalling Ethereum’s long-term scaling vision.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has said that many new Layer 2 (L2) networks are repeating shallow design patterns, and warned that generic EVM chains with optimistic bridges are holding back meaningful progress.
His comments extend the public debate over whether today’s L2 ecosystem still aligns with Ethereum’s original scaling goals.
No More “Copypasta” EVM Chains
In a February 5 post on X, Buterin argued that comfort and familiarity, not technical necessity, are driving many L2 launches, leading to copy-paste designs that add little beyond surface-level Ethereum compatibility.
The developer drew a comparison between infrastructure choices and governance habits, writing that making yet another EVM chain and adding “an optimistic bridge to Ethereum with a one-week delay” has become routine in the same way forking Compound once dominated DAO governance.
“That’s something we’ve done far too much for far too long, because we got comfortable, and which has sapped our imagination and put us in a dead end,” Buterin wrote.
He was even more direct about alternative designs that drop Ethereum bridges entirely.
“If you make an EVM chain without an optimistic bridge to Ethereum, that’s even worse,” he said, adding, “We don’t friggin need more copypasta EVM chains, and we definitely don’t need even more L1s.”
Buterin insisted that Ethereum’s base layer is already scaling and will continue to add EVM block space through 2026, though not without limits. He noted that some workloads, such as AI-related applications, may still require lower latency or specialized execution environments. In his view, those needs should push developers toward genuinely new architectures rather than lightly modified replicas.
Matching “Vibes” With Real Ethereum Connection
Buterin’s criticism builds on comments he made earlier, suggesting many L2s no longer meet the original definition of scaling Ethereum because they fail to fully inherit its security.
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He argued that Ethereum no longer needs L2s to act as branded shards, especially considering mainnet fees are falling and gas limits are rising.
In his latest post, the 32-year-old stressed that public positioning should reflect technical reality. “Vibes need to match substance,” he wrote, criticizing projects that market themselves as tightly connected to Ethereum while treating that link as an afterthought.
The blockchain’s co-founder outlined two models he considers reasonable. One is an app chain that depends deeply on Ethereum, such as prediction markets that settle and manage accounts on the L1 while handling execution on a rollup. The other is what he called “institutional L2s,” where systems like government registries publish cryptographic proofs on-chain for transparency, even if they are not trustless or credibly neutral.
“If you’re the first thing, it’s valid and great to call yourself an Ethereum application,” Buterin said. “If you’re the second thing, then you’re not Ethereum… so you should just say those things directly.”
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Crypto market sentiment sank to its bleakest level since the FTX collapse after bitcoin’s sharp drop this week dragged prices across the board and forced a wave of deleveraging.
The widely followed Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 9 on Friday, a reading categorized as “extreme fear” and one that has historically only appeared during major breakdowns in market confidence.
The index stood at 12 a day earlier, 16 last week and 42 last month, suggestive of how quickly traders have shifted from cautious to outright defensive.
The fear gauge is built primarily around bitcoin, combining several indicators that attempt to quantify investor mood rather than price direction. It includes volatility and drawdowns, market momentum and trading volume, social media engagement, bitcoin dominance and Google Trends data tied to bitcoin-related searches.
A sharp rise in volatility, a spike in defensive positioning and an increase in fear-driven search interest typically push the index lower.
The collapse in sentiment comes as bitcoin briefly traded near $60,000 in late U.S. hours Thursday before bouncing back toward $65,000, a whipsaw move that reflected both forced liquidations and opportunistic dip-buying.
While the rebound suggests some buyers are willing to step in near major psychological levels, the sentiment reading implies the broader market remains in “sell first, ask questions later” mode.
In past cycles, extreme fear has often coincided with local bottoms, largely because panic conditions tend to flush out leveraged traders and short-term holders. But that is not a rule, and the index is better read as a snapshot of stress rather than a timing tool.
The index does not predict where bitcoin goes next, however. But it does show that the market has returned to the kind of fear typically reserved for systemic events.
Bitcoin’s latest slide did more than knock prices lower, it forced investors to lock in losses at a pace rarely seen in crypto’s short history.
On-chain analyst Murphy noted Friday that Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted realized loss hit a record $3.2B on Feb. 5, a sign that traders rushed for the exits as the market buckled.
Murphy framed the move as capitulation, arguing the scale of loss-taking surpassed what the market absorbed during some of its most infamous shocks.
It came as Bitcoin fell about 10% on Friday to around $64,000, sinking to its weakest level since late 2024 and unwinding the momentum that had built after Donald Trump’s election win.
Feb. 5 Marks Largest Realized Bitcoin Loss Day On Record, Analyst Says
“Epic-level! A massive loss-taking wave has appeared,” the analyst said in a post translated from Chinese.
“On February 5th, the realized loss (after entity adjustment) of BTC reached a historic record high of $3.2 billion. After seeing this number, everything that came before is just small potatoes.”
He went further, listing crisis moments that he said failed to produce a comparable flush. “Whether it was the Luna collapse, the FTX bankruptcy, or the 312/519 black swan events — none of them ever triggered loss-taking on this massive scale.”
Murphy also pointed to a past data wrinkle that some traders may cite when comparing extremes. “There was also one instance on 2025.11.21, but that time Coinbase reorganized wallet data afterwards and the figures were adjusted. This time, though… it really looks like genuine panic.”
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) February 6, 2026
Bitcoin slid more than 10% toward $64,000 Friday, hitting its weakest level since late 2024 as a broad risk asset selloff erased post-election crypto gains.#CryptoMarketUpdate #AsiaMarketOpen https://t.co/MUsoiSrxbe
He described the Feb. 5 move as unusual because the market did not need a single headline shock to unravel.
Realized Loss Metrics Watched Closely For Signs Of Seller Exhaustion
Murphy also pushed back on critics who prefer measuring realized losses in Bitcoin terms.
“(Some people think we should use BTC-denominated statistics — this is a misunderstanding. The price of BTC is dynamic; only by measuring in USD value can we truly gauge the level of panic selling pressure the market was under at that moment.)”
The claim lands as traders debate what the washout means for the next phase of the cycle, especially as large swings in price can trigger forced selling and accelerate realized losses.
Markets often watch this metric for clues on whether sellers have exhausted themselves, or whether fear still has room to run.
Michael Burry has added a fresh dose of nerves. The Scion Asset Management founder, who rose to fame predicting the 2008 housing crisis, shared a Bitcoin chart on X that compared the current pullback to the 2021 to 2022 crash, implying Bitcoin could slide into the low $50,000s before it finds a more durable bottom.
In that post early Thursday, Burry pointed to the shape of the decline from Bitcoin’s October high of $126,000 to around $70,000, and matched it against the late 2021 to mid-2022 plunge, when Bitcoin slid from roughly $35,000 to below $20,000.
The post Bitcoin Logs $3.2B In Loss-Taking Wave, Beating Luna And FTX-Era Shock Levels appeared first on Cryptonews.
TLDR
- LSEG shares rose by 7.4% on Thursday after a 19% drop in the previous two days.
- JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reassured investors by downplaying AI risks to LSEG’s business.
- JPMorgan’s Enrico Bolzoni clarified that AI companies are working with LSEG, not replacing it.
- LSEG’s partnership with Anthropic provided AI access to the company’s financial data.
- Goldman Sachs analyst Oliver Carruthers set a price target of 14,550 pence for LSEG.
LSEG shares bounced back on Thursday, rising by 7.4% after facing a 19% drop in the prior two days. The rally followed reassurances from major financial institutions, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, who downplayed fears that artificial intelligence would threaten LSEG’s core business. The recovery came after a tumultuous period where AI-related market panic had hurt the stock.
London Stock Exchange Group plc, LSEG.L
Rebound Driven by Analyst Confidence
The sharp decline in LSEG shares began earlier in the week when Anthropic introduced its Claude Cowork product, designed to automate workplace tasks. Traders feared that AI advancements could severely impact companies like LSEG, which specializes in providing financial data, not software. However, JPMorgan’s Enrico Bolzoni stepped in to correct what he called “misunderstandings” surrounding LSEG’s business model, stating that AI would not replace but instead work alongside LSEG.
Bolzoni emphasized that LSEG is deeply involved in AI, noting the October partnership with Anthropic that provided the AI company access to LSEG’s financial data. This partnership, he argued, demonstrated LSEG’s pivotal role in the growing AI landscape, counteracting the market’s misconception that AI would push the company aside. “AI companies are working with LSEG, not replacing it,” Bolzoni clarified in his statement.
LSEG Shares: Calm After the Panic
Goldman Sachs also weighed in, with analyst Oliver Carruthers reiterating the value of LSEG’s data-driven business model. Carruthers downplayed the potential impact of AI, explaining that just 6% of LSEG’s revenue from workflow products might be exposed to any risk from automation. He further set a price target of 14,550 pence, which was the highest among analysts tracking LSEG.
The comments from both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs played a significant role in calming investor nerves. Shares of LSEG, which had taken a hit in the wake of AI-related concerns, saw a sharp reversal, rising 7.4%. This bounce was a direct result of analysts stepping in to assure the market that LSEG’s core business was secure, even in the face of AI innovation.
The broader tech market also saw turbulence as fears over AI’s impact on the software and data sectors took hold. The Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst two-day drop since October, shedding over $550 billion in value. LSEG, despite being a data provider, became caught in the broader selloff, with tech investors looking to offload anything related to software or data businesses.
Bitcoin miner MARA moved 1,318 BTC worth about $86.89 million to a mix of counterparties and custody venues over the past 10 hours, onchain data tracked by Arkham shows.
The biggest slice went to Two Prime. One transfer sent 653.773 BTC, around $42.01 million, to a Two Prime tagged address, alongside a smaller 8.999 BTC top up worth about $578,000 just minutes later.
Separate outbound transactions sent 200 BTC and 99.999 BTC to a BitGo tagged address, together about $20.4 million at the time of transfer, while another 305 BTC moved to a fresh address, worth roughly $20.72 million.
The flow matters mainly because of timing. Crypto markets have been swinging hard since this week’s liquidation driven selloff, and traders are on edge for any sign that miners are turning into forced sellers.
Large miner related transfers can be routine treasury management, custody reshuffling, collateral moves, or preparation for an over the counter sale, but in a thin market they often get read as a supply signal.
The Two Prime leg will draw the most attention because it is a credit and trading counterparty. If the bitcoin is being posted as collateral or rotated into a strategy, it does not necessarily imply spot selling.
The transfers comes amid a tough period for miners, with bitcoin down nearly 50% from peak prices above $126,000 last year.
Bitcoin is now approximately 20% below its estimated average production cost, as CoinDesk reported Thursday, increasing financial pressure across the BTC mining sector.
The average cost to mine one bitcoin is around $87,000, according to data from Checkonchain, while the spot price has fallen toward a weekly low of $60,000 Historically, trading below production cost has been a feature of a bear market.
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