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Bloomberg Strategist Warns of 2008 Replay for Global Markets

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Bloomberg Strategist Warns of 2008 Replay for Global Markets

As the conflict involving Iran drags on and global energy supplies risk prolonged disruption, most financial assets are likely to behave like risk assets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone in a recent interview with Cointelegraph.

Despite major price swings across commodities, stock market volatility has remained relatively low, a divergence McGlone considers unsustainable. Historically, such imbalances tend to resolve through increased volatility in equities — often during broader market corrections.

That unusual volatility dynamic is also showing up in gold, a market traditionally viewed as a safe haven.

“Right now, 180-day volatility on gold is almost 2.5 times that of the S&P 500,” McGlone said. “So it’s no longer a store of value.”

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In the interview, McGlone also discusses why Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market may be acting as a leading indicator for global risk assets. With the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index already significantly down from its peak, he argues that crypto could be signaling a potential downturn in traditional markets.

The macro backdrop, he suggests, increasingly resembles past periods of stress, including the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, when energy prices spiked before sharply reversing during a global economic slowdown.

McGlone also shares his outlook on oil prices, interest rates, and the role of US Treasuries, which he still views as one of the few assets that could benefit if volatility rises and economic growth slows.

Could the current oil shock trigger a broader market correction? And what does it mean for Bitcoin, stocks, and the global economy?

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Watch the full interview with Mike McGlone to hear his full macro outlook and market predictions.

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

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Crypto World

Stablecoins Could Power Global Payments: Druckenmiller

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Stablecoins Could Power Global Payments: Druckenmiller

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said blockchain and stablecoins may only be a decade away from powering the global payments system — though he isn’t sold on the idea of crypto functioning as a store of value.

In an interview with Morgan Stanley recorded on Jan. 30 and released on Friday, the former hedge fund manager said blockchain-based tokens — particularly stablecoins — boost productivity in the payments space:

“Blockchain and the use of stablecoins, if you want to throw crypto into that, tokens, incredibly useful in terms of productivity,” Druckenmiller said.

“I assume our whole payment systems will be stablecoins in 10 or 15 years,” he said, adding that stablecoins are more efficient, faster and cheaper than existing solutions.

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Druckenmiller speaking to Morgan Stanley’s Iliana Bouzali on Jan. 30. Source: Morgan Stanley

Druckenmiller founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981 and closed the fund in late 2010. During that time, he achieved an average annual return of 30% and never experienced a down year.

Druckenmiller said back in May 2021 that a blockchain-based system could replace the payment rails that power the US dollar due to a lack of trust in the traditional banking system.

“Well, the problem has been clearly identified. It’s Jerome Powell and the rest of the world, central bankers. There’s a lack of trust,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box at the time.

Several traditional payments firms, such as Western Union, MoneyGram and Zelle, announced plans to launch stablecoin settlement systems last year following the passage of the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act in July, which provided a clear regulatory framework for payment firms to offer digital asset services.

Drunkenmiller not sold on crypto as a store of value

Despite Druckenmiller’s conviction on blockchain and stablecoins, he isn’t convinced that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) can function as a store of value.

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