Bitcoin price holds near $68,000 as short-term holders show restraint despite US-Iran war tensions.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $68,308 at press time, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours. The asset is positioned near the top of its seven-day range between $62,905 and $69,340, recovering from a sharp dip earlier in the week.

The larger trend, however, is still corrective. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin has dropped about 45% from that peak. So far in 2026, it is down roughly 20%, reflecting continued pressure following last year’s rally.

Derivatives activity has increased over the past day. CoinGlass data shows trading volume rising 8.7% to $72.3 billion, while open interest has edged up 1.6% to $44.9 billion. When open interest climbs alongside price, it often suggests that new positions are being opened rather than closed.

Short-term holders are not rushing to sell

A March 1 analysis from a CryptoQuant contributor examined Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges metric. This indicator tracks whether recent buyers are sending coins to exchanges at a profit or a loss. Short-term holders tend to react quickly to fear-driven events and can amplify volatility.

According to the report, on Feb. 5–6, during a sharp market drop, roughly 89,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours. That episode marked a clear capitulation from newer market participants. Since then, those loss-driven inflows have steadily declined.

The recent geopolitical escalation involving U.S. and Iran provided another stress test. Bitcoin briefly dipped toward the $63,000–$64,000 area, yet exchange inflows from short-term holders did not spike.

There was no surge in panic selling or aggressive profit-taking from this typically reactive group.

That shift is notable. Markets often stabilize once forced sellers have exited. The current data suggests much of the recent liquidation pressure may already have played out.

Selling from recent buyers has slowed, and weak hands seem to be less active. Whether or not this calm continues will be crucial going forward. 

Seller fatigue would be evident if exchange inflows from short-term holders continued to be low. A sharp increase in realized losses would indicate a resurgence of stress.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

Since January, Bitcoin has continued to move within a downward structure marked by lower highs and lower lows. The recent rebound comes after a sharp decline, and the price is currently consolidating rather than showing a strong trend in either direction. 

Bollinger Bands show that before rising, Bitcoin touched the lower band around $64,400. At $67,300, it currently trades near the middle band. The upper band, near $70,100, marks immediate resistance.

A rejection in the $70,000–$71,000 zone would keep pressure on the upside, while a strong daily close above that area could shift short-term momentum.

The relative strength index has climbed from oversold levels in the low 20s to around 47. Momentum is improving, though it has not crossed above 50, a level often associated with stronger buyer control.

The current structure resembles a sharp impulse lower followed by sideways compression, which can develop into a bear flag. If that pattern resolves downward, a return to the low $60,000s becomes plausible.

Support sits between $64,000 and $65,000. If that area fails, the next psychological level near $60,000 could come into focus.

Hyperliquid price has rallied into a major resistance cluster near $32 but shows signs of exhaustion as volume declines. Failure to reclaim this zone increases the probability of a corrective move toward lower support.

Hyperliquid’s (HYPE) recent recovery attempt has brought price back into a critical technical region that previously acted as support but has now flipped into resistance. While the rally initially suggested momentum recovery, weakening volume and structural rejection signals indicate that the move may lack sustainability.

The market now sits at a decisive level where continuation requires a structural shift, otherwise downside rotation remains the higher-probability outcome.

Hyperliquid price key technical points

• Key Resistance: $32–$35 zone aligns with 0.618 Fibonacci and VWAP resistance.
• Market Structure: Former support has flipped into high timeframe resistance.
• Downside Risk: Exposed value area low increases probability of move toward $21.

Hyperliquid has returned to a major technical inflection point around $32, an area that previously served as support before breaking down. In market structure analysis, former support zones frequently transform into resistance once lost, and the current price reaction confirms this behavior. The rejection occurring at this level suggests that sellers continue to defend higher prices aggressively.

The resistance zone extends between $32 and $35, where multiple technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, combined with an overhead VWAP resistance, creates a strong confluence region. Such clusters often represent decision zones where markets either transition into trend reversals or resume the prevailing direction. For Hyperliquid, price has yet to demonstrate sufficient strength to invalidate the bearish structure.

A notable concern accompanying the rally is the decline in trading volume. Healthy bullish continuation typically requires expanding participation as price approaches resistance. Instead, diminishing volume indicates weakening demand, suggesting that the rally may be corrective rather than impulsive.

This type of behavior frequently precedes rejection scenarios where markets rotate back toward lower liquidity zones, even as Hyperliquid launches a Washington-based advocacy group to push for clearer congressional rules around decentralized finance.

From a volume profile perspective, price tends to rotate between the Value Area High (VAH), Point of Control (POC), and Value Area Low (VAL). In the current structure, the value area low remains technically untested following the recent move higher. When one side of the range remains exposed, markets often seek balance by revisiting that region. This dynamic increases the probability that Hyperliquid reverses near resistance and rotates back toward lower support.

The next major support level sits near $21, representing the value area low and a key demand zone. A move toward this region would complete a full rotational cycle within the broader range structure. While such a decline may appear bearish in the short term, it would remain consistent with range dynamics rather than signaling immediate long-term collapse.

Market structure analysis reinforces the corrective outlook. Hyperliquid continues to trade below high timeframe resistance without establishing higher highs. Until price can reclaim the $32–$35 zone on a closing basis, bullish continuation remains unlikely.

Instead, the prevailing structure favors rejection and gradual downside rotation, even as traders increasingly view assets like BCH, XMR, HYPE, and BlockDAG as leading crypto opportunities driven by utility and momentum.

Additionally, the failure to break resistance after multiple attempts can weaken buyer confidence. Traders often interpret repeated rejections as confirmation of supply dominance, encouraging defensive positioning and short-term selling pressure. Without a decisive reclaim supported by strong volume expansion, upside attempts are likely to fade.

What to expect in the coming price action

Hyperliquid’s short-term outlook remains vulnerable while price trades below the $32–$35 resistance cluster. Continued weakness and declining volume increase the probability of a reversal toward $21 support. Only a confirmed breakout above resistance would invalidate the bearish scenario and shift momentum back toward bullish continuation.

TLDR

• xAI plans to repay $3 billion in high-yield bonds earlier than expected to reduce debt before major corporate steps.
• The company will redeem the bonds at $117 on the, which reflects recent price movement.
• Early repayment may trigger penalty costs because the bonds were expected to remain outstanding for two years.
• Musk merged xAI and X under one structure while working to simplify debt across his companies.
• Lenders were informed that both X and xAI debt will be repaid, although funding sources were not disclosed.

xAI will retire $3 billion of bonds early as the company reshapes its debt, and SpaceX prepares for a public listing, and lenders track rapid changes across Musk’s merged businesses.

Early Bond Repayment by xAI

xAI will repay the bonds at 117 cents as pricing data shows the debt rising toward that level. The move follows June’s bond sale that featured a coupon of 12.5 percent.

The redemption comes even though the structure suggested a longer timeline before repayment. The step underlines efforts to simplify obligations before further corporate actions.

Bank sources say early repayment usually triggers charges tied to make-whole terms, and xAI may incur such costs. They also state, “The process continues without disclosure of funding sources.”

Trace data shows the bonds climbed about three points on Monday to near 117 cents. The shift reflects rising expectations of an early call.

Debt Strategy and Business Consolidation

Musk merged xAI with SpaceX under a single holding entity last year. The group now carries about $18 billion of combined obligations.

Lenders say repayment plans also cover debt tied to X, formerly Twitter. They add that Morgan Stanley told them repayment will proceed as arranged.

X borrowed about $12.5 billion during Musk’s takeover, while xAI raised $5 billion through loans and bonds. Both moved under xAI Holdings after restructuring.

xAI revised its debt documents to restrict asset transfers and set a ceiling for future secured borrowing. Those provisions protect collateral for lenders.

SpaceX Prepares for IPO Filing

SpaceX may file confidentially for an IPO this month, according to sources. They say valuation targets exceed $1.75 trillion.

The company has not accessed bond markets, unlike X and xAI, which faced heavy servicing costs. X paid large monthly interest amounts, while xAI used cash rapidly.

SpaceX bought xAI last month and intends to expand data center capacity. The combined business holds a valuation of about $1.25 trillion.

People familiar with the matter say Musk plans to advance the offering timeline. They also report ongoing financing work tied to debt reduction.

Morgan Stanley declined to comment when contacted. Representatives for X and xAI did not respond to requests for comment.

Iran’s top crypto exchange saw a significant spike in crypto withdrawals within minutes of the US and Israel launching strikes in Tehran on Saturday. However, a widespread internet outage curbed additional outflows.

In a post on Monday, Elliptic said crypto outflows from the Nobitex exchange surged by more than 700% to over $500,000 within minutes of the first airstrikes, with a chart showing that outflows reached nearly $3 million in a single hour later that day. 

Elliptic said the sharp rise in outflows “potentially represents capital flight from Iran,” with its initial tracing showing that many of those funds were sent to foreign crypto exchanges.

“This allows funds to be moved out of Iran while avoiding some of the scrutiny of the global banking system,” Elliptic said.

However, crypto outflows from Nobitex fell sharply after Saturday, which fellow crypto forensics platform TRM Labs attributed to the Iranian regime enforcing strict internet blackouts.

Iran’s internet connectivity reportedly fell by approximately 99% shortly after the conflict unfolded, TRM noted.

TRM also opposed Elliptic’s conclusion that capital flight is leaving Iran, stating:

“It appears that the country’s crypto ecosystem is not showing signs of acceleration or capital flight, but instead experiencing a downturn in both transactions and volume as the regime enforces strict internet blackouts.”

The crypto outflows come as the US and Israel seek to topple the current Iranian regime and wipe out its nuclear and missile programs. Iran responded with airstrikes of its own on neighboring countries, creating further instability in the region.