The dispute between Aave Labs and the Aave DAO appears to be escalating, with DAO delegates ramping up their hostility after Labs’ “Aave Will Win” proposal requested another $51 million in development funding from the DAO.

On Feb 20, delegate BGD Labs announced its intent to halt its work with the DAO due to Labs’ focus on Aave V4 rather than “a very mature and successful V3.” The decision came after Aave Labs co-founder Stani Kulechov stated in the proposal that “Once V4 is mature, V3 parameters should be gradually adjusted to encourage migration, following the same approach used in past version transitions.”

Marc Zeller, the founder of Aave-Chan Initiative (ACI), another service provider to the Aave DAO, called BGD’s impending departure from the DAO a major change and sold a portion of his AAVE holdings.

Today, the feud between the DAO and Labs was cranked up a notch after Zeller published a full audit of Labs’ performance in the Aave governance forum, bashing Aave Labs’ product delivery, profitability, and business development (BD).

Zeller referred to Labs’ standalone products, including Lens Protocol, GHO v1, and Horizon, as “The Product Graveyard,” citing “zero successes.” He went on to point out that even its more successful launches, such as Horizon, which has commanded over $500 million in total value locked (TVL), still resulted in a negative 96% return on investment (ROI), and that Aave’s stablecoin, GHO v1, depegged and had to be rebuilt by BGD and TokenLogic.

The report went on to criticize Aave Labs’ BD department, noting that Labs was set to work with prominent entities in DeFi and traditional finance like Coinbase’s Layer 2 Base, World Liberty Financial, Apollo, and Mantle.

Morpho emerged as the most notable competitor in these relationships and now serves as the backend of Coinbase’s decentralized lending product, and recently announced a partnership with $800 billion asset manager Apollo Global Management.

While the relationship between the DAO and Labs continues to crack, Aave remains DeFi’s leading protocol by TVL, accounting for more than 28% of the DeFi market with $27.5 billion across all chains.

Meanwhile, Morpho is the second largest lending protocol and sixth largest in DeFi with $5.8 billion.

Despite Aave’s leading position in terms of TVL and brand recognition, its native AAVE token is trading near multi-year lows at just $122, or a $1.9 billion fully diluted valuation, after reaching as high as $380 in December 2024 and $660 in 2021.

Aave Labs did not respond to The Defiant’s request for comment.

TLDR:

• The CFTC issued a prediction markets advisory on February 25, 2026, following two Kalshi enforcement cases.
  
• A political candidate received a five-year Kalshi ban and a $2,246.36 penalty for trading on his own candidacy.
  
• A YouTube editor was fined $20,397.58 and suspended two years for trading on material nonpublic information.
  
• The CFTC confirmed full federal authority to prosecute fraud, insider trading, and manipulation on any DCM platform.

The CFTC Enforcement Division issued a prediction markets advisory on February 25, 2026. The advisory came after two enforcement cases surfaced involving fraudulent trading on KalshiEX, a Designated Contract Market.

Both cases involved misuse of nonpublic information on event contracts, also known as prediction markets. The CFTC used this opportunity to remind market participants that it holds full authority to prosecute illegal trading on any DCM, including Kalshi.

CFTC Confirms Full Authority Over Prediction Market Violations

The CFTC Enforcement Division made its position clear in the advisory released this week. While Kalshi handled both cases through its internal compliance program, the Division stressed it retains independent prosecutorial power.

The agency cited multiple sections of the Commodity Exchange Act to back its authority. This move signals that federal oversight of prediction markets is becoming more active.

The Division pointed to Section 6(c)(1) of the Act as the primary legal basis for action. Regulation 180.1(a)(1) and (3) also applies, covering manipulative schemes and fraudulent conduct.

The CFTC referenced prior enforcement actions, including CFTC v. Clark, to show its track record. These citations reinforce that prediction markets are not beyond the reach of federal law.

The advisory also addressed other prohibited practices beyond insider trading. These include pre-arranged trading, wash sales, and disruptive trading under Section 4c(a).

Fraud and manipulation under various sections of the Act were also listed. The CFTC made clear these rules apply to event contracts just as they do to traditional futures markets.

The Division further noted that DCMs carry an independent duty under Section 5(d) of the Act. This includes maintaining audit trails, conducting market surveillance, and enforcing rules.

The CFTC stated it will continue coordinating with exchanges on enforcement referrals where needed.

Two Kalshi Cases Prompted the CFTC Advisory

The first case involved a political candidate who traded on his own candidacy in May 2025. Social media videos surfaced showing the trades, prompting Kalshi’s compliance team to act immediately.

The trader admitted knowing the trades were improper under Kalshi’s rules. Kalshi imposed a $2,246.36 penalty and a five-year suspension from the exchange.

The CFTC noted this conduct potentially violated prohibitions on manipulative or deceptive trading practices. The candidate’s trades represented a direct conflict of interest with the outcome of the contract.

This type of self-interested trading threatens the integrity of prediction markets. The Division made clear it could have pursued this matter independently.

The second case involved a YouTube channel editor who traded between August and September 2025. The trader placed bets on a prediction market tied to the very channel where they worked.

Kalshi investigated the unusually profitable trades and discovered the employment connection. The trader likely accessed material nonpublic information through their editorial role before videos were published.

Kalshi imposed a $20,397.58 penalty, including $5,397.58 in disgorgement and a $15,000 fine. A two-year suspension from the exchange was also handed down.

The CFTC identified this as a potential misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a duty of trust. The Division’s advisory serves as a formal warning that such conduct on prediction markets carries serious federal consequences.

PI is attempting to break away from its longstanding downtrend. Will it succeed?

PI Network (PI) Price Predictions: Analysis

Key support levels: $0.15

Key resistance levels: $0.20

PI Breakout

The current price action suggests that buyers are attempting to break out of the existing downtrend. PI found good support above 15 cents, and as long as this holds, buyers have a good shot at higher levels. The current resistance is at 20 cents.

Bounce in Progress

After PI was rejected at 20 cents, the price entered into a pullback that is now bouncing on the downtrend line. If the bulls can hold the price here and push it to a higher high later, the breakout from this downtrend will be successful.

RSI Higher Highs

A key signal that bulls are on the offensive can also be seen on the 3-day RSI, which made a higher high. This could be an early sign that the buyers mean business and they will also attempt to send the price into a higher high above 20 cents next.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1937.2, up 4.4% (+82.19) since 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

All 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: DOT (+17.2%) and AVAX (+12.9%).

Laggards: BTC (+2.8%) and AAVE (+3.0%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

The market remains gripped by extreme fear. Many Bitcoin investors focus only on short-term price fluctuations and fixate on negative factors. As a result, they overlook strong underlying fundamentals.

Although the price may be correcting, the following data reinforces the case for a recovery.

Lightning Network Growth Despite a Sharp Bitcoin Price Decline

Bitcoin’s price has fallen sharply. However, its use as a payment network has reached an all-time high, as reflected in breakthrough data from the Lightning Network.

The Lightning Network is a Layer 2 protocol built on top of Bitcoin. It enables scalable, low-cost, and near-instant transactions, making it ideal for everyday payments.

Data from Newhedge shows that Bitcoin Lightning Network capacity rose to a record high of 5,800 BTC in December. It remained above 5,600 BTC in early 2026.

Capacity (blue) represents the total amount of Bitcoin locked in Lightning Network payment channels. For the Lightning Network to function, participants must commit BTC to channels in advance. This committed BTC forms the network’s capacity.

Therefore, capacity determines the total value that can be transacted through the Lightning Network at any given time. An increase signals improvements in scalability, reliability, and user adoption.

In addition, a recent report from River revealed that the Lightning Network surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time. It processed 5.22 million transactions. This growth indicates that businesses and exchanges are using Lightning to move real funds.

“While everyone is focused on Bitcoin dropping to $63K, something happened last week that nobody talked about. The Lightning Network crossed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time ever… Businesses are using it,” said Fernando Nikolić, a developer at Perception.

Sam Wouters, Director of Marketing at River, explained that most transactions involve transfers between exchanges, often with large amounts. He predicted that in the future, the emergence of AI agents could reduce the average transaction size when executing many small transactions.

Hashrate Recovery Reflects Renewed Miner Confidence

Second, Bitcoin’s hashrate—an important metric that measures the network’s total computational power—has recovered to levels equivalent to September last year, when BTC traded above $100,000.

The strong V-shaped recovery in February shows that miners have returned with renewed confidence. It also strengthens the network’s security and resilience.

Miners appear to have moved past extreme negative sentiment. They have restarted operations after severe weather disruptions earlier in the year.

Historically, hashrate tends to rise alongside Bitcoin’s price. This pattern often signals a potential recovery in BTC.

The Sign of Strengthening Demand From US Investors

Third, the Coinbase Premium Index turned positive again in the final week of the month after remaining negative for a full month.

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and on Binance. A return to positive territory reflects that US investors are willing to buy BTC at higher prices.

“This return to positive territory suggests a gradual improvement in demand from professional and institutional participants, particularly those based in the United States. This signal remains tentative and reflects ongoing investor caution. However, current price levels appear to be gradually becoming attractive again for professional participants,” commented Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

These positive signals may appear faint amid prevailing pessimism. However, they could act as catalysts for a recovery.

Recent analysis from BeInCrypto emphasized that a breakout above the $67,394 resistance level would improve the negative short-term price structure. Such a move would lay the foundation for further upside.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has paused after a modest rally, carving an eight-day high while building a double bottom near $62,500. Despite the bounce, the token remains roughly 21% below its level from a month ago, underscoring the uphill path for bulls entering Friday’s massive options expiry. The $10.5 billion BTC options series looms large, with traders weighing whether a late bid can flip momentum or if selling pressure resumes as settlement approaches. Deribit continues to lead the space, accounting for about 76% of turnover, while OKX and CME register smaller but meaningful shares. In this environment, price action, tech-equity sentiment and macro developments converge to shape outcomes as traders position for what could be a pivotal weekend for BTC.

Key takeaways

• Bulls face a required roughly 9% rally from around $68,800 to tilt the balance in Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry, underscoring how a single session can redefine near-term momentum.
• The asset’s price dynamics remain tightly linked to tech sentiment, with Bitcoin showing a 90% correlation to the Nasdaq 100 Index, signaling that AI-driven earnings and risk appetite in equities can spill into crypto flows.
• Deribit dominates the derivatives landscape with about $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in put options, roughly three-quarters of the total market, followed by OKX and CME as secondary venues.
• Put options appear structurally resilient, and a substantial portion of call bets would expire worthless if BTC stays below $70,000 on Friday, highlighting skew toward downside protection in the event of a renewed pullback.
• Analysts point to a distribution of open interest across strikes that suggests potential tail-risk hedges around $60k–$75k, with three plausible expiry outcomes by price band (65k–69k, 69k–71k, 71k–74k).

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $NVDA

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The setup points to several potential expiry outcomes rather than a clear directional edge, pending Friday’s settlement.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given the mixed signals and the dependency on the Friday expiry, a cautious stance remains prudent until price action clarifies the balance of risk.

Market context: The crypto complex continues to absorb climate-driven moves from equities, especially where AI-driven growth and large-cap tech results drive risk sentiment. The link between BTC and the Nasdaq suggests liquidity and sentiment could hinge on tech earnings and macro developments in the near term.

Why it matters

The proximity of a major options expiry adds a layer of probabilistic dynamics to BTC’s price path. If Friday’s settlement tilts the risk-reward balance toward puts, downside pressure could re-emerge, even if a broader macro backdrop improves later in the week. Conversely, a decisive rally back toward the mid-$70,000s could unlock renewed upside potential as hedges unwind and bullish bets reassert themselves. This interplay matters for traders betting on short-term volatility, for market-makers managing gamma exposure, and for investors watching risk parity dynamics across asset classes.

Beyond the technical setup, the influence of Nvidia’s earnings on risk appetite cannot be overstated. The company’s results, released after the market close, intersect with the AI sector’s broader profitability trajectory and margins, which have been a critical driver of forward-looking confidence in tech equities. A robust AI narrative tends to buoy liquidity across risk assets, including crypto, while disappointing guidance can deepen risk-off moves that weigh on BTC and related tokens. This cross-asset feedback loop helps explain why the BTC-iShares Nasdaq relationship remains a meaningful lens for traders assessing near-term catalysts.

In the backdrop, the derivative structure reveals a cautious stance among market participants. The largest share of put exposure sits below the current price, while still substantial upside hedges exist at higher strikes. This composition means that even if the spot moves higher, a portion of the derivative book remains positioned to dampen exuberance, reflecting a pragmatic approach to risk management as traders await Friday’s definitive outcome.

What to watch next

• Friday’s BTC options expiry outcomes by price band (65,000–69,000; 69,000–71,000; 71,000–74,000) and the resulting net tilt between puts vs. calls.
• Shifts in Deribit’s open interest and any reallocation of market share among OKX and CME after settlement.
• The Nvidia earnings release and any revised guidance that could alter AI-driven risk sentiment.
• BTC price action around the 60,000 and 75,000 levels and any validation of the upper and lower bounds suggested by the current option structure.

Sources & verification

• Bitcoin price action and the eight-day high with a double bottom near $62,500 as markets digest the upcoming expiry.
• Deribit’s market share and the breakdown of $4.5 billion in calls and $3.4 billion in puts.
• OKX and CME derivatives volumes: approximately $610 million in calls / $385 million in puts (OKX) and $255 million in calls / $287 million in puts (CME).
• Nvidia’s earnings outcomes and their potential impact on risk appetite for AI-related growth stocks.
• The observed 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index, illustrating the tech-led sentiment linkage.

Bitcoin options expiry tests bulls as AI-driven sentiment sways risk assets

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) drifted to an eight-day peak as traders prepared for what could be a defining week for risk assets. A double bottom near the $62,500 zone offered a technical foothold, yet the asset remains about 21% below its level from a month earlier, underscoring the uphill climb for bulls ahead of Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry. The event is more than a headline risk; it is a liquidity and risk-management inflection point that can shape the near-term trajectory for BTC. Deribit remains the dominant venue, commanding roughly three-quarters of the market with approximately $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in puts, while OKX and CME hold meaningful but smaller roles in the overall turnover. The market is balancing the lure of a potential rebound against the probability of further volatility driven by macro cues and tech-sector performance.

The derivatives landscape reveals a nuanced stance: although puts appear structurally well-positioned to absorb bearish shocks, a meaningful chunk of neutral-to-bullish positions was unsettled by BTC’s retreat below $75,000 in February. Data show that about 88% of Deribit’s call options would expire worthless if BTC remains under $70,000 on Friday, a statistic that underscores the risk premium baked into the expiring contracts. Even after stripping out extreme multi-leg strategies—often used to chase higher strikes—roughly 37% of the remaining bets sit below $75,000, implying that a robust rally is required to flip the balance in favor of bulls before expiry.

The balance of power in the larger market hinges on the broader tech narrative. The recent correlation suggests that as the Nasdaq moves, BTC tends to follow, at least in the near term. Nvidia (EXCHANGE: NVDA) looms large as a proxy for AI-driven demand and corporate margins; its earnings outcome, due after the close, could tilt risk appetite and inject further volatility into both equities and crypto. While Bitcoin’s path remains sensitive to the tech-driven risk-on/risk-off cycle, the current setup highlights that a decisive move would be necessary to overcome the accumulated option-based hedges and usher in a renewed upside trajectory.

Three plausible expiry outcomes emerge from the current price trajectory. If BTC trades between $65,000 and $69,000, puts have the edge by about $1.15 billion. In the $69,001–$71,000 range, puts would still dominate by roughly $845 million. If BTC finishes the week between $71,001 and $74,000, demand appears skewed toward puts with about $470 million in net exposure. Taken together, the data point to a scenario where a sustained rally beyond the current price is needed to shift the narrative, even as hedging structures offer a guardrail for contrarian bets. The dynamic nature of the option book means traders should stay vigilant for shifts in open interest across the major venues as Friday’s settlement approaches.

The interplay between crypto and traditional markets remains the defining feature of this period. While BTC can diverge from equities on longer horizons, the near-term linkage—especially via tech earnings and AI sentiment—continues to imprint volatility and liquidity conditions on the space. As the expiry nears, market participants will be watching not only the price levels but also how the hedges evolve in Deribit, OKX, and CME to determine the probable path for BTC in the days ahead.

Historically, whale inflows coincide with sensitive price phases and potentially influence XRP’s short-term market direction.

Amid a broader market uptick, XRP posted a modest 3% increase over the past 24 hours. There has also been a notable surge in token whale inflows to Binance.

The 30-day average of large wallet transfers to the exchange has risen to roughly 2.54 billion XRP, which signals renewed activity from major holders after a previous period of relative decline.

XRP Whale Inflows Spike

Daily whale inflows currently hover around 50 million XRP, which is indicative of ongoing engagement, though not as intense as the peaks observed in mid-2025. The whale flow metric, which tracks coins moving from large wallets to exchanges, is often used to gauge potential changes in the supply available for trading. Rising inflows can indicate that whales are repositioning, whether for selling, leveraging assets as collateral in derivatives, or preparing for increased trading activity.

CryptoQuant stated that the recent increase in the monthly average points to a gradual buildup rather than a single large transfer. In previous cases, higher whale inflows have coincided with sensitive phases in XRP’s price, sometimes preceding corrections due to added supply.

Other times it has signaled potential volatility, whether upward or downward.

As such, if spot demand remains weak, higher inflows could contribute to selling pressure, whereas if liquidity improves and market participation grows, the flows might reflect strategic repositioning by whales ahead of potential price movements.

Bears Still In Control

Against the backdrop of increased whale inflows and a slight price appreciation, data still show signs of bearish pressure. Analyst CasiTrades recently observed that the recent trendline break is forming resistance, and with the price dropping below the previous B-wave low, attention has shifted toward support levels at $1.11 and $0.87.

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Local resistance around $1.40 remains significant, and as long as XRP trades below it, downward momentum may continue. She also added that the current phase is still a no-trade zone, and meaningful entries will only likely occur if lower supports are reached or if price flips above the $1.65 macro resistance.

On the institutional side of things, US spot XRP ETFs remained subdued. According to the data compiled by SoSoValue, no net inflows or outflows were recorded on February 20 and 23. On February 24, Bitwise’s XRP ETF bucked the trend with $3 million in inflows.