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Crypto World

BTC, Gold & Silver Exposed?

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Goldman Sachs Panic Index

Global markets may be entering a new phase of volatility after Goldman Sachs warned that systematic funds could offload tens of billions of dollars in equities in the coming weeks.

This wave of selling could ripple into Bitcoin, gold, and silver as liquidity conditions deteriorate.

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Goldman Warns CTA Selling Could Accelerate as Liquidity Thins

According to Goldman’s trading desk, trend-following funds known as Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs) have already triggered sell signals in the S&P 500. What’s more, they are expected to remain net sellers in the near term, regardless of whether markets stabilize or continue falling.

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The bank estimates that roughly $33 billion in equities could be sold within a week if markets weaken further.

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More significantly, Goldman’s models suggest that as much as $80 billion in additional systematic selling could be triggered over the next month if the S&P 500 continues to decline or breaches key technical levels.

Market conditions are already fragile. Goldman analysts noted that liquidity has deteriorated and options positioning has shifted in ways that may amplify price swings.

When dealers are positioned “short gamma,” they are often forced to sell into falling markets and buy into rising ones, intensifying volatility and accelerating intraday moves.

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Goldman also highlighted those other systematic strategies—including risk-parity and volatility-control funds—still have room to reduce exposure if volatility continues to rise. That means selling pressure may not be limited to CTAs alone.

Investor sentiment is also showing signs of strain. Goldman’s internal Panic Index recently approached levels associated with extreme stress.

Goldman Sachs Panic Index
Goldman Sachs Panic Index. Source: Goldman Sachs

Meanwhile, retail investors, after a year of aggressively buying dips, are beginning to show fatigue. Recent flows indicate net selling rather than buying.

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Although Goldman’s analysis focused primarily on equities, the implications extend beyond stock markets.

Historically, large, flow-driven equity sell-offs and tightening liquidity conditions have increased volatility across macro-sensitive assets, including crypto.

Bitcoin, which has increasingly traded in line with broader risk sentiment during periods of liquidity stress, could face renewed volatility if forced selling in equities accelerates.

Crypto-linked equities and retail-favored speculative trades have already shown sensitivity to recent market swings, suggesting positioning remains fragile.

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At the same time, turbulence in equities can trigger complex cross-asset flows. While risk-off conditions can pressure commodities, precious metals such as gold and silver can also attract safe-haven demand during periods of heightened uncertainty, leading to sharp moves in either direction depending on broader liquidity trends and the dollar’s strength.

Gold, Bitcoin, and Silver Price Performances
Gold, Bitcoin, and Silver Price Performances. Source: TradingView

In the meantime, the key variable remains liquidity. With systematic funds deleveraging, volatility rising, and seasonal market weakness approaching, markets may remain unstable in the weeks ahead.

If Goldman’s projections materialize, the coming month could test equities, with a spillover effect on Bitcoin and precious metals.

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Crypto World

Only 10K Bitcoin is Quantum-Vulnerable and Worth Attacking

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Only 10K Bitcoin is Quantum-Vulnerable and Worth Attacking

Digital asset manager CoinShares has brushed aside concerns that quantum computers could soon shake up the Bitcoin market, arguing that only a fraction of coins are held in wallets worth attacking.

In a post on Friday, CoinShares Bitcoin research lead Christopher Bendiksen argued that just 10,230 Bitcoin (BTC) of 1.63 million Bitcoin sit in wallet addresses with publicly visible cryptographic keys that are vulnerable to a quantum computing attack.

A little over 7,000 Bitcoin are held in wallets with between 100 and 1,000 BTC, while roughly 3,230 Bitcoin are held in wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, equating to $719.1 million at current market prices, which Bendiksen said could even resemble a routine trade.

The remaining 1.62 million Bitcoin are held in wallets with holdings under 100 BTC, which Bendiksen claimed would each take a millennium to unlock, even in the “most outlandishly optimistic scenario of technological progression in quantum computing.”

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Split of quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin across various holding sizes. Source: CoinShares

The CoinShares researcher said these “theoretical risks” stem from quantum algorithms such as Shor’s, which could break Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures, and Grover’s, which could weaken the Secure Hash Algorithm 256-bit (SHA-256).

However, he argued neither quantum algorithm could alter Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap or bypass proof-of-work, two of the Bitcoin network’s most foundational features.

Quantum fears have been among the many drivers of Bitcoin FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in recent months, with critics warning that any compromise of its cryptography could threaten a network that currently secures $1.4 trillion in value.

The Bitcoin at risk are unspent transaction output (UTXO) wallets, which are chunks of Bitcoin tied to wallet addresses that have not been spent. Many of these Bitcoin wallets at risk date back to the Satoshi era.