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BTC in deep bear market, could crash by another 30%, investment firm says

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BTC in deep bear market, could crash by another 30%, investment firm says

Bitcoin is firmly in the deepest phase of the bear market and the pain may worsen, according to CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital.

“Bitcoin’s price is convincingly in deep bear market territory now. We expect a further 30% price drop during 2026 as the Iran war started,” Zheng told CoinDesk in an email, citing the “four-year cycle” as one of the key catalysts.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has already nearly halved since hitting a record high of over $126,000 in October last year, according to CoinDesk data. As of writing, it changed hands at around $68,000.

The four-year bitcoin cycle

Crypto investors often talk about the “four-year cycle” – a pattern in which prices surge, crash, and then recover, centred on the quadrennial mining reward halving.

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The halving, most recently implemented in April 2024, is a programmed event that halves bitcoin’s supply expansion rate every 4 years. As of today, 3.125 BTC are emitted as rewards for each block mined on the Bitcoin network, down from the original 50 BTC at launch after four halving events to date.

Historically, bitcoin’s price has tended to peak about 16–18 months after a halving, followed by a bear market that typically lasts about a year.

BTC topping out in October last year, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, means the cycle is playing out again. So, the bear market could deepen in the near term.

Zheng said that the cycle is proving very difficult to break. According to him, the reason is simple: human psychology.

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“The “Four-year crypto cycle” momentum is gaining strength and is extremely difficult to break due to individual investors’ psychological behaviors,” Zheng said.

Individual investors tend to behave in predictable ways — buying during hype and selling during panic. That behavior reinforces the boom-and-bust four-year pattern that has defined crypto markets for more than a decade.

Because of this, Zheng said bitcoin still trades more like a speculative asset than a safe haven like gold.

He added that the institutional adoption of bitcoin remains very slow and limited in scope at this stage and warned that some firms that have purchased bitcoin as a treasury asset may be forced to sell, leading to a deeper price sell-off.

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“The total size of crypto ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury companies is only around 10% of the whole crypto market. Some Digital Asset Treasury firms may be forced to sell cryptos to meet certain debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle,” Zheng said.

For now, Zheng’s outlook is clear: crypto’s bear market may have further to run before the next cycle begins.

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Crypto World

Peter Schiff raises concerns over MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin funding strategy

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Goldbug Peter Schiff says the U.S. dollar is facing massive deleveraging as metals surge and crypto stalls

Peter Schiff, a well-known Bitcoin critic and gold advocate, has raised concerns about MicroStrategy’s ongoing Bitcoin acquisition strategy. 

Summary

  • Peter Schiff says MicroStrategy Bitcoin funding model may increase shareholder dilution through repeated share issuance.
  • Company shifts toward 11.5% yield preferred shares as earlier funding methods become less effective.
  • Debate continues as analysts disagree whether MicroStrategy faces risk or retains financial flexibility.

The company has continued to expand its holdings through a mix of debt and equity issuance.

Schiff stated that MicroStrategy’s approach is becoming harder to sustain under current market conditions. He said “the company is shifting toward more expensive capital” while referencing recent financing changes linked to preferred shares.

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He added that earlier funding methods, which included issuing shares at higher valuations, are becoming less effective in the present environment.

MicroStrategy has recently relied more on preferred share offerings with higher yield obligations. Schiff noted that the company is now issuing instruments with yields around 11.5 percent.

He said ”these obligations cannot be covered by software earnings alone” when describing the firm’s financial position. The company’s core software business has limited profit contribution compared to its Bitcoin exposure.

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Schiff stated that funding future purchases may require additional issuance of preferred shares, discounted equity, or Bitcoin sales. He argued this could increase pressure on shareholders through dilution over time.

Claims of structural risk and market reaction

Schiff described the company’s financing approach as vulnerable if market conditions weaken. He said the structure depends heavily on continued access to capital markets.

Canadian billionaire Frank Giustra also commented on the strategy, calling it ”a giant ponzi that will unravel when the next financial crisis hits” according to remarks cited in reports. He suggested that macroeconomic stress could expose weaknesses in the model.

The comments reflect ongoing debate over corporate treasury strategies that rely on digital assets as a primary reserve.

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Additionally, market research group BitMEX Research provided a different view on MicroStrategy’s approach. The firm stated that MicroStrategy is not under forced liquidation pressure and still has financial flexibility.

BitMEX Research said ”nobody is forcing MSTR to do this” and described the strategy as potentially beneficial under current conditions. It noted that the company can adjust financing terms, including coupon rates, instead of selling assets.

The discussion continues as MicroStrategy maintains one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holdings while using structured financial instruments to support its accumulation strategy.

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Bitcoin Halts Gains as US-Iran War, Hormuz Closure Make a Comeback

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Bitcoin Halts Gains as US-Iran War, Hormuz Closure Make a Comeback

Bitcoin foreshadows fresh market mayhem as it appears that the US-Iran war has returned, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil route.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to protect $75,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as crypto surfed fresh uncertainty over the US-Iran war.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin price action sinks from ten-week highs amid fears that the US-Iran war has returned in full force.

  • Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, bringing back the risk of an oil-price surge.

  • BTC price action faces ongoing resistance at a 21-week trend line into the weekly close.

Bitcoin abandons highs as US-Iran war fears return

Data from TradingView showed BTC price pressure reentering after a trip to ten-week highs of $78,400 on Friday.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Mixed signals from US and Iranian sources characterized the weekend, with an assumed ceasefire and mutual agreements between the two sides now seemingly undone.

Among the latest developments was the repeat closure of the Strait of Hormuz, putting the focus on oil futures on the day. News of a ceasefire had sent WTI crude below $80 per barrel for the first time since March 10.

“We expect an eventful Sunday ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in ongoing analysis on X.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As BTC/USD circled local highs, and sentiment with it, market participants stayed cautious. Trading resource Material Indicators noted that the entire market mood could flip on relatively little input, such as a social media post.

“Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish at the moment, but that could change with one Tweet in the coming days. Know your invalidations,” it told X followers.

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Data from CoinGlass showed long positions coming under fire during the BTC price retracement, with total crypto liquidations at $260 million over the past 24 hours.

Crypto seven-day liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

BTC price capped by resistance trend line

Continuing, trader Daan Crypto Trades eyed a potential gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market opening as a result of the weekend comedown.

Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis

As Cointelegraph reported, such gaps often act as short-term price magnets when the new week begins.

“It’s going to be interesting to see the futures open today and how $OIL will react to the recent headlines regarding the strait,” he added.

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BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Looking at the weekly close, trader and analyst Rekt Capital placed importance on Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $78,900.

“Bitcoin is rejecting from the 21-week EMA (green),” he observed alongside the weekly chart. 

“It is this rejection that could force a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom (~$73k) next week, provided Bitcoin Weekly Closes just like this.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X