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BTC long-term rally is ‘broken’ until price reclaims $85,000, Deribit executive says

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BTC long-term rally is ‘broken’ until price reclaims $85,000, Deribit executive says

Bitcoin’s long-term rally is “broken” and will remain so until the price climbs above $85,000, said Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer of derivatives exchange Deribit.

The largest cryptocurrency has settled into the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the past week, some 45% below the record high it hit in October. It’s on track to fall for a fourth straight week, and dropped below $85,000 at the end of January.

“Until the market reclaims $85k, the longer-term chart remains broken, and the path of least resistance technically remains lower,” Péquignot said in an interview during the Consensus Hong Kong conference.

Rising above $85,000 would confirm that buyers have established control, having soaked up all the supply that wrecked the long-term outlook. The bitcoin price was recently near $66,600, well below Péquignot’s make-or-break level, and deep in bear territory with room for more pain.

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Speaking of the pain, $60,000 is the next big support, a price that nearly came into play early this month as bitcoin wilted alongside software stocks. According to Péquignot, it is a major psychological level, where large buy walls, or multiple purchase orders, have historically resided.

“If $60k fails to hold on a closing basis, the 200-week MA is the next logical, and possibly final stop for this correction,” he said.

The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is widely regarded as the holy grail for bottom fishers, or traders hunting bargains at bear-market lows to time their bullish bets.​ Since 2015, multiple bitcoin bear markets have hit lows near this average, which is why traders now track it closely. The average is currently located at around $58,000.

“Traders would be looking at the $58k–$60k range as the ultimate support,” Péquignot said.

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Square launches zero-fee Bitcoin payments for US merchants through 2026: Square

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Square launches zero-fee Bitcoin payments for US merchants through 2026: Square


Square is waiving processing fees for Bitcoin payments at US merchants for two years, with instant dollar conversion to reduce adoption barriers.

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$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

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$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

Key takeaways:

  • A Hyperliquid whale placed an $80 million bet against Bitcoin and the S&P 500 while going long on Brent crude oil prices.

  • The whale’s history of massive losses and inconsistent signals suggests the trade could fall on the wrong side of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on Wednesday, bouncing back from Tuesday’s $66,000 low after President Donald Trump teased a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war. Even with Bitcoin trading above $68,000, one whale used Hyperliquid DEX to place an $80 million bet on a market collapse. 

Traders are now watching closely to see if this whale’s massive position signals a looming Bitcoin price drop.

Hyperliquid whale 0x94d373…c933814 position. Source: CoinGlass

The Hyperliquid whale, linked to address 0x94d373…c933814, carefully built this nearly $80 million leveraged position between Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade includes a $40 million short (sell) on Bitcoin futures near $68,760, a $2 million short on synthetic S&P 500 Index contracts, and a $37 million long (buy) in synthetic Brent oil contracts.

Crude Brent oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The whale’s aggregate position leverage stood at 7 times, indicating high conviction. The Bitcoin futures liquidation price was $80,083, while the Brent oil position would be forcefully terminated above $93. The timing of the trade is curious as S&P 500 Index futures gained 4% between Tuesday and Wednesday as traders anticipate the US and Israel-Iran war dissipating over the next few weeks.

On Wednesday, President Trump said “Iran’s New Regime President” is considering a “ceasefire,” although the conditions to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain unknown. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty. Thus, one could assume that the Hyperliquid whale is counter-trading the market’s optimistic take, betting that Brent crude oil prices will jump while Bitcoin loses its value.

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This Hyperliquid whale previously lost $40 million

This address belongs to a particularly unlucky whale, or at least one who has been extremely unsuccessful since late January. The Hyperliquid whale apparently uses bots for execution, given the sheer number of small trades that build into huge positions, but it still managed to lose $37 million in its first month of activity in December 2025.

The same user was flagged by X user ‘lookonchain’ on Feb. 5 after taking a massive loss on leveraged bullish bets on Ether (ETH), Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP). 

Source: X/lookonchain

According to the analysis, the whale had previously made $25 million in profits from shorts in multiple cryptocurrencies, but decided to flip the position on Feb. 4, resulting in a $40 million loss. There is no way to know exactly what triggered this entity to place those bets, but the event proves that even whales can misinterpret the market.

Related: Warren Buffett bought $17B in US T-bills: A bad omen for Bitcoin price?

The erratic signals from President Trump regarding a potential full-on invasion and the war in Iran leave room for opposing views. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied there were talks for a ceasefire but confirmed to Al Jazeera on Tuesday that there was an intention to end the war, according to CNBC.

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Given the history of this whale’s market positioning and its track record of losing trades, it’s possible that the current $80 million bet may fall on the wrong side of the market.