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BTC manages quick gain as oil drops $3 per barrel

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Crypto majors dive despite tech-led lift in Asian markets

After retreating back to the $69,000 area during early U.S. morning hours Wednesday, bitcoin has quickly spiked to nearly $71,000.

Other crypto assets, including ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP, saw the same sharp moves higher.

The gains appeared to come as crude oil quickly reversed most of its session’s large gains, dropping $3 per barrel in a matter of minutes. At press time, WTI crude futures for April were at $85, up 2% for the day.

Crude’s drop also benefited stocks, with the Nasdaq moving from a small decline to a gain of 0.5% in early U.S. trade.

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Crypto-related shares were mixed, with Strategy (MSTR), Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Bullish (BLSH) posting modest advances, while Coinbase (COIN) and eToro (ETOR) were slightly lower.

With the ongoing war against Iran, risk markets this week have been mostly ruled by oil’s price action. Stocks and crypto plunged on Sunday evening as oil surged to $120, but then gained as oil quickly retreated.

Fresh inflation data

Wednesday’s February CPI report was in line with economist forecasts, up 0.3% on a month-to-month basis, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%. Next month, however, could show a much different picture due to the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, posing the question of whether the Federal Reserve will respond to the temporary shock or take a more hawkish stance after being caught off guard during the last inflation cycle.

Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21shares says the Fed’s choice will be critical, noting that investors will be watching next week’s Fed meeting closely for signs on how officials plan to react.

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As for bitcoin, the rise in next month’s data is likely “already baked in the cake,” he said.

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Crypto World

CPI Inflation Inches Higher, but Crypto Markets Stay Resilient

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United States, Inflation

The latest rise in the consumer price index (CPI) was “in line with estimates,” and rising inflation has already been priced into the macroeconomic data for the March CPI print, according to market analysts at exchange-traded product (ETP) issuer 21Shares.

Shelter rose 0.2% in February, while the food sector of the CPI rose 0.4%, energy increased by 0.6%, and the index for all items, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February CPI report.

United States, Inflation
CPI inflation data for different sectors of the economy. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21shares, said the upcoming CPI prints place even more pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body that decides interest rate policy. He said: 

“What matters now is the Fed’s reaction function to the coming higher CPI prints. Do they ‘look through’ this temporary shock despite having been burned in the previous inflation cycle? Or do they tilt hawkish as a precautionary measure?” 

Crypto markets remain resilient following the February CPI report, with the Total 3 market indicator, which tracks the entire crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), only declining by about 1% from the intraday high of about $722 billion.

Related: Finance job openings fall to 13-year low as US economy loses 92K jobs

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What does this mean for BTC’s price?

“In the immediate term, Bitcoin is likely to remain rangebound between $68,000 and $74,000. However, a breakout past the $75,000 resistance zone appears imminent,” according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

United States, Inflation
The price of BTC remained resilient, barely moving in reaction to the February CPI print. Source: TradingView

If BTC manages to break above the $75,000 level, it could enter a consolidation phase between $75,000 and $80,000 in the medium-term, Mena said.

Historic price data shows that BTC typically rebounds by 15% or more after geopolitical market shocks, which would put its price in the $77,000 to $80,000 range, he said.

A market recovery to these levels could also be “accelerated” if the FOMC resumes easing interest rates in 2026, according to Mena.

Only 0.6% of traders expect an interest rate cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% range at the March 18 FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen