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BTC price is still ‘signficantly undervalued,’ Bitwise says: Crypto Daybook Americas

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CD20, Feb 20 2026 (CoinDesk)

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin has gained 2% in the past 24 hours, scrambling to top $68,000 after a selloff earlier this month. That’s done little to ease sentiment, with the “Fear and Greed” index remaining at the “extreme fear” level for a 20th straight day.

André Dragosch, the head of research in Europe at Bitwise, said consolidation is expected after the crash, which saw bitcoin drop to a $60,000 low.

“Apart from Covid, bitcoin doesn’t usually show V-shaped recoveries after strong capitulations,” he told CoinDesk. “The most likely case is that we continue to move sideways to down.”

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Still, Dragosch pointed to signs for optimism. Prediction markets now place the odds of the U.S.’s Clarity Act passing in 2026 near 80%. He described the bill as a major catalyst for alternative tokens such as ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). Bitwise’s internal Cryptoasset Sentiment Index registered neutral, he added.

“On the macro front, bitcoin continues to exhibit significant ‘discounts’ with respect to global money supply, gold, and the overall macro growth outlook. Bitcoin also exhibits a significant undervaluation relative to global Bitcoin ETP flows,” Dragosch said. “ETP flows are still relatively weak, but once risk appetite and flows return, this suggests we could see a significant catch-up in bitcoin.”

Caution lingers, however. Data from CryptoQuant shows large bitcoin holders have moved coins onto Binance at record levels. Such transfers often signal intent to sell, increasing the supply on spot markets and potentially weighing on prices.

Dragosch rejected concerns bitcoin may be a “canary in the macro coal mine,” signaling tighter liquidity and rising recession risk. The U.S. yield curve and other forward indicators suggest continued money supply growth, he said. Global liquidity is expanding at more than 10% a year, a backdrop that has not typically aligned with extended bitcoin bear markets, he added.

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Indeed, prediction markets have reduced the odds of a recession in the U.S. this year. The chance of that happening plunged from over 40% in mid-2025 to just above 20%.

The crypto market may nevertheless see volatility rise into the weekend. Later today, U.S. core PCE index data is released, which could provide clues on future Fed policy direction.

Traders are bracing for a tight rise from previous figures. While higher inflation traditionally supports the case for scarce assets, a hawkish reaction from the Fed could drive the dollar higher, further pressuring risk assets into the weekend. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

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What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • Feb. 20. 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Core PCE price index MoM for December est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); YoY est. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%)
    • Feb. 20, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ Adv for Q4 est. 3. (Prev. 4.4%)
    • Feb. 20, 9:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash for February est. 52.6 (Prev. 52.4).
    • Feb. 20, 10 a.m.: U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment final for February est. 57.3 (Prev. 56.4)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to consolidate assets from depleted wallets into the Liquidity wallet to simplify operations. Voting ends Feb. 22.
    • Fluid DAO is voting to withdraw 1 million GHO and 1 million FLUID from the treasury to the Team Multisig to fund JupLend rewards and protocol incentives. Voting ends Feb. 22.
    • GMX is voting on a proposal to implement tiered trading fee discounts for stakers and a staker-weighted trading leaderboard. Voting ends Feb. 22.
  • Unlocks
    • Feb. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
    • Feb. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 10.64% of its circulating supply worth $10.77 million.
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 1.97% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $68,220.42 (24hrs: +1.98%)
  • ETH is up 1.1% at $1,969.19 (24hrs: +0.12%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 1,960.80 (24hrs: +1.14%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.83%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0047% (-5.1936% annualized) on Binance
CD20, Feb 20 2026 (CoinDesk)
  • DXY is unchanged at 97.95
  • Gold futures are up 0.97% at $5,046.00
  • Silver futures are up 3.9% at $80.66
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.12% at 56,825.70
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.1% at 26,413.35
  • FTSE is up 0.69% at 10,700.09
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.48% at 6,088.42
  • DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.54% at 49,395.16
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 6,861.89
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.31% at 22,682.73
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.61% at 33,594.98
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.83% at 3,738.74
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.4 bps at 4.071%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 6,890.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,930.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.12% at 49,516.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.04% (+0.4%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02883 (-0.93%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,046 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $29.88
  • Total fees: 2.36 BTC / $157,285
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 119,935 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.54%

Technical Analysis

Chart of bitcoin vs U.S. dollar weekly price moves

(TradingView)
  • The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price moves against the dollar.
  • BTC/USD weekly is still trading at its 200-week exponential moving average, waiting for a confirmation by the end of the week.
  • There are no clear RSI divergences or signs of a bottom so far.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $165.94 (+1.15%), +1.98% at $169.23 in pre-market
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $61.92 (-1.95%), +2.08% at $63.21
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.63 (-0.46%)
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.37 (+1.63%), -1.05% at $32.03
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.96 (+6.13%), +1.63% at $8.09
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.22 (+4.71%), +1.36% at $16.44
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (+4.11%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.82 (+5.93%), +1.43% at $9.96
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.69 (+1.62%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.42 (+5.47%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.45 (+3.39%), +2.48% at $132.66
  • Strive (ASST): closed at $8.12 (+0.87%), +0.99% at $8.20
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.80 (+3.03%)
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.67 (-3.33%), +3.48% at $0.69
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.10 (+0.00%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$165.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $53.91 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$130.1 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.55 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Crypto World

Here’s why the Ethereum-based privacy token AZTEC price is rising

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Here’s why AZTEC price is rising
Here’s why AZTEC price is rising
  • AZTEC has surged nearly 80% after listing on major Korean exchanges.
  • AZTEC has gained traction as a privacy-focused Ethereum Layer 2 solution.
  • Key levels to watch are the support at $0.0188 and the resistance at $0.0371.

The Ethereum-based privacy token AZTEC has seen a dramatic surge in its price over the last 24 hours.

The current price of AZTEC is around $0.035, representing an impressive increase of nearly 80% in a single day.

Aztec price
Source: Coingecko

Trading volumes have also spiked, reflecting heightened market activity and strong investor interest.

Exchange listings fuel the rally

One of the main drivers behind AZTEC’s surge is its listing on major South Korean exchanges.

Upbit and Bithumb have added AZTEC trading pairs, including KRW-denominated options.

These listings make it easier for South Korean retail traders to access the token directly, without needing USDT or BTC as intermediaries.

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The immediate effect has been a sharp increase in buying pressure, pushing the token to new all-time highs.

Such regional exchange activity often creates a premium, as local traders bid aggressively in the initial hours after a listing.

This surge is further supported by the token’s presence on global exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, KuCoin, and MEXC, which listed the token on February 12, immediately after the protocol went live.

What is AZTEC?

AZTEC is not just another altcoin.

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It is the native token of Aztec, a privacy-focused Layer 2 protocol built on the Ethereum Network.

The protocol uses zero-knowledge proofs to enable private transactions while maintaining Ethereum’s security standards.

This combination of privacy and scalability makes Aztec particularly appealing to users and developers looking for confidential and efficient transaction solutions.

Recent protocol upgrades and network developments have also helped strengthen confidence in the token.

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Investors see both short-term trading opportunities and long-term potential as adoption grows.

The market’s response reflects the perception that privacy solutions on Ethereum are gaining traction in a competitive landscape.

AZTEC price forecast

For traders and investors alike, the coming days will be crucial in determining if AZTEC can sustain its momentum and reach higher price levels.

The immediate support lies near $0.0188, which was the lower bound of the recent 24-hour range.

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On the upside, the immediate resistance is at the current all-time high of around $0.0371.

If the token can break above $0.0371, the next area of interest may approach $0.04, a psychological barrier for many traders.

However, given the rapid pace of this rally, some short-term pullbacks are possible.

Volume trends and activity on both Korean and global exchanges will likely influence the next moves.

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In the short term, traders should watch for consolidation around the $0.03–$0.035 range, as this may determine whether the rally continues or enters a retracement phase.

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HBAR Price Recovery Stalls Below $0.10: What’s Holding It Back?

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HBAR MFI

Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is attempting to regain lost ground after weeks of constrained trading. The price recently approached the $0.10 threshold but failed to secure a decisive breakout. Since the beginning of the month, resistance near this level has limited upward progress.

While HBAR briefly reclaimed $0.10, momentum stalled just below a key technical barrier. Traders have adjusted their positioning, though not decisively in favor of sustained upside. 

HBAR Holders Are Buying

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, indicates that buying pressure is gradually building on HBAR. This volume-weighted momentum indicator measures capital inflows and outflows based on both price and trading volume. Currently, the MFI is positioned above the neutral 50 mark, signaling that buyers are regaining influence.

An MFI reading in positive territory suggests accumulation may be underway. Rising inflows often precede price appreciation, especially when supported by higher trading activity. If this trend continues, HBAR could benefit from sustained accumulation, strengthening the case for a recovery attempt above immediate resistance levels.

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Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

HBAR MFI
HBAR MFI. Source: TradingView

Hedera Traders Remain Skeptical

Broader derivatives data offer a mixed but slightly constructive outlook. HBAR’s funding rate is currently skewed toward long positions, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold bullish contracts. Positive funding rates typically reflect expectations of upward price movement.

However, volatility in the funding rate over the past two weeks highlights lingering uncertainty. Between February 6 and February 11, short contracts dominated open interest, placing downward pressure on HBAR. This dominance quickly reversed, turned positive, and then shifted negative again.

HBAR Funding Rate
HBAR Funding Rate. Source: Coinglass

Such fluctuations reveal hesitation among leveraged traders. Although short dominance has declined recently, conviction remains fragile. Stable positive funding would strengthen the bullish thesis, but current data suggests sentiment is still reactive to short-term price swings rather than anchored in long-term confidence.

HBAR Price Aims High

HBAR is trading at $0.0992 at the time of writing. The token remains above the $0.0961 support level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Holding this level is technically significant, as it represents a key inflection point for trend continuation.

However, resistance at $0.1035, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, is capping upward movement and limiting breakout attempts.

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A decisive move above $0.1035 would signal a short-term structural shift. Turning this resistance into support could attract fresh demand, particularly if buying pressure continues to rise. 

HBAR Price Analysis.
HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

The next target would stand at $0.1109, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level is widely monitored by traders and often acts as a strong support zone once reclaimed.

However, if bullish indicators fail to strengthen, consolidation may persist near current levels. Continued outflows would weaken breakout attempts and reinforce resistance at $0.1035.

A breakdown below the $0.0961 support would shift the short-term structure bearish. In that scenario, HBAR could decline toward $0.0870, invalidating the immediate recovery outlook and restoring stronger control to sellers.

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Tennessee Judge Blocks State Crackdown on Kalshi Markets

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Adoption, CFTC, Legislation, United States, Prediction Markets

A US federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts. 

The ruling, issued by Judge Aleta Trauger of the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Thursday, allows Kalshi to continue offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state while its lawsuit against Tennessee regulators proceeds.

Trauger found that Kalshi is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that federal commodities law preempts Tennessee’s attempt to regulate its sports markets as illegal gambling. 

The court concluded that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, over which the law grants the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction, and held that Tennessee’s enforcement efforts are likely preempted under conflict preemption principles. 

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Adoption, CFTC, Legislation, United States, Prediction Markets
Preliminary injunction, Kalshi. Source: CourtListener

The injunction applies to the identified state officials, while the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council itself was dismissed on sovereign immunity grounds, and Kalshi was ordered to post a $500,000 bond.

Long-running clash with states

The Tennessee case marks another chapter in a broader clash over how to treat event contracts in the United States.

An earlier temporary restraining order from Trauger had already paused enforcement of Tennessee’s cease-and-desist letter, which alleged that Kalshi was operating unlicensed sports wagering, ordered it to stop offering sports event contracts to customers in Tennessee, void those contracts and refund deposits, and threatened fines and further legal action. 

Related: Nevada court hits Polymarket with temporary restraining order, tests CFTC control

Kalshi has similarly gone to federal court in multiple states, including Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut, over cease-and-desist actions targeting its event markets, with courts reaching divergent conclusions on whether to grant preliminary relief.

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CFTC steps in to defend prediction markets

​The injunction also lands against a shifting federal backdrop, as the CFTC moves to assert primacy over prediction markets.

In a video message on Tuesday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency had filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, warning state authorities that the commission would meet them in court if they tried to undermine federal oversight of these derivative markets.

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