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BTC price looks resilient, but don’t ignore those $20,000 put options: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Ultra-bearish forecasts are getting no love from industry observers, and rightly so, with bitcoin holding resilient amid global market chaos. Yet options flows hint there may be merit to the bears’ dire warnings.

Bloomberg reiterated its prediction for the largest cryptocurrency to plunge to $10,000 — a level last seen in mid-2020. Industry observers dismissed it as silly.

Yet on Deribit, the biggest crypto options exchange, nearly $800 million in open interest is piled into the $20,000 put, a wager that the price will slide to below that level. It’s the fourth-most popular bearish bet on the platform.

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It signals some traders are preparing for a meltdown. That said, not all are outright bets on a price crash, Deribit said.

“The majority of that positioning appears to be short puts rather than directional long hedges, said Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales. “Traders often sell very far OTM puts because the probability of hitting those levels is low.”

In the meantime, though, bitcoin is showing uncanny resilience, holding steady around $70,000 even as a renewed oil rally pushed crude benchmarks toward $100 early today and rattled traditional markets. Ether (ETH), XRP, and solana (SOL) are similarly firm, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token steals the spotlight with gains of around 10% over 24 hours.

Analysts say excess leverage is flushing out of BTC, paving the way for upside.

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“From a market structure perspective, this type of consolidation can be constructive because reducing leveraged positioning tends to create a more stable foundation for the next move once a clearer macro catalyst emerges,” Diana Pires, VP of sales at crypto platform sFOX, said in an email.

In traditional markets, oil volatility looks to be spilling over into bonds. The MOVE index, measuring the 30-day expected volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, which underpin global finance, has surged to 76 from under 60 in late February. This could lead to financial tightening worldwide, putting pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

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  • Crypto
    • March 12: Polakdot’s economic upgrade to start rolling out, featuring a DOT supply cap, an emissions cut and unbonding reduction.
    • March 12, 1 p.m.: MARA to host an X Spaces session with its CEO, CFO, and Chief Growth & Strategy Officer.
    • March 12: BOB mainnet to undergo its Jovian hardfork.
  • Macro
    • March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending March 7 Est. 215K (Prev. 213K)
    • March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. balance of trade for January Est. -$66.6B (Prev. -$70.3B)
    • March 12, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet for period ending March 11 (Prev. $6.63T)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 12: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting to establish an operational directive that automatically consolidates idle and surplus non-ARB funds from DAO initiatives directly into the Arbitrum Treasury Management Company (ATMC) portfolio. Voting ends March 12.
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting to implement a delegated voting power (DVP) quorum model, update its constitution, and enable onchain proposal cancellation. Voting ends March 12.
    • CoW DAO is voting on a swap affiliate program to reward affiliates who refer new retail traders and traders who reach qualifying volume milestones, with up to 500,000 USDC allocated over a six-month pilot. Voting ends March 12.
    • World Liberty Financial DAO is voting to introduce a WLFI governance staking system requiring unlocked token holders to stake (minimum 180-day lock) to participate in governance. Voting ends March 12.
  • Unlocks
    • March 12: Aptos to unlock 0.69% of its circulating supply worth $11.21 million
  • Token Launches
    • March 12: ForU AI’s (FORU) token generation event occurs.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.12% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $70,400.41. (24hrs: +1.11%)
  • ETH is unchanged at $2,071.35 (24hrs: +2.21%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.4% at 2,008.02 (24hrs: +1.32%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 2.79%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0048% (-5.2188% annualized) on Binance
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  • DXY is unchanged at 99.36
  • Gold futures are up 0.43% at $5,189.60
  • Silver futures are up 2.38% at $87.09
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.04% at 54,452.96
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,716.76
  • FTSE 100 is down 0.33% at 10,320.02
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.43% at 5,769.83
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.61% at 47,417.27
  • S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,775.80
  • Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,716.13
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.45% at 33,119.80
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 7,501.64
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.21%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% at 6,753.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.35% at 24,896.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.48% at 47,221.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.23% (-0.08%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02929 (0.2%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,020 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $30.46
  • Total fees: 2.8 BTC / $196,480
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 108,220 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.67%

Technical Analysis

XRP's daily chart with Bollinger bands. (TradingView)
XRP’s daily chart with Bollinger bands. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day average of price.
  • The gap between Bollinger bands is now narrowest since early November 2024.
  • The tighter the bands, the more explosive the eventual breakout. In other words, a big move (volatility) could be brewing in XRP.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $198.63 (+1.07%), –1.28% at $196.08 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.46 (–1.69%), –0.75% at $21.30
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.55 (–0.23%), –1.40% at $8.43
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.81 (+1.16%), –0.74% at $14.70
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.54 (+6.99%), –1.45% at $16.30
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.81 (+1.87%), –1.22% at $9.69
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.91 (–0.18%), +14.48% at $12.49
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.92 (+4.18%), –2.29% at $38.03
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $112.81 (–4.47%), +0.30% at $113.15
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.19 (+1.25%), –1.05% at $36.80

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.33 (–0.09%), –0.56% at $137.55
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.23 (+2.78%)
  • SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.59 (+2.71%), –1.45% at $7.48
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.03 (+9.46%), –1.94% at $1.01
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (+0.00%), –1.71% at $1.15

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $115.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.88 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $57 million
    Cumulative net flows: $11.68 billion
    Total ETH holdings ~ 5.65 million

Source: Farside Investors

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XRP Price Prediction: Can These 6 Ongoing Developments Save Ripple

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XRP is trading at $1.31, up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours, but price prediction still remains bearish for Ripple coin.

XRP is trading at $1.31, up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours, but price prediction still remains bearish for Ripple coin. Down nearly 30% year-to-date from a $1.88 open, the token is fighting to hold key support while the broader market registers extreme fear. What most traders haven’t priced in yet: a significant engineering overhaul quietly underway inside the XRP Ledger’s core repository.

Denis Angell, an XRPL core developer, outlined six active workstreams on April 2 that are reshaping the ledger’s foundational infrastructure, telemetry, nomenclature, type safety, refactoring, logging, and documentation.

“I’ve never been more excited for the XRP Ledger core development than I am now,” Angell posted, describing the effort as tedious but critical.

The work targets backend reliability and developer experience rather than user-facing features, a distinction that matters for long-term network competitiveness.

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Whether these upgrades translate into price recovery depends entirely on market timing.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

XRP Price Prediction: $1.40 Before the Next Wave of Selling?

XRP’s current level of $1.31 places it uncomfortably below both major moving averages. The 50-day SMA sits at $1.40–$1.42, acting as immediate overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA at $2.04–$2.07 represents a full recovery target that feels distant given current momentum.

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XRP is trading at $1.31, up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours, but price prediction still remains bearish for Ripple coin.
XRP USD, TradingView

Support is clustered at $1.27–$1.29. That zone is thin. A clean break below it opens a more significant leg down with limited structural floors until the $1.10 range. The Fear and Greed Index reading Fear confirms capitulation sentiment, which historically precedes either a sharp reversal or a final flush.

Analyst consensus points to $2.04 as a potential recovery level by September 2026, achievable, but requiring sustained buying pressure that simply isn’t visible in current volume data.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early-Mover Upside as XRP Tests Critical Support

XRP’s -29.6% year-to-date performance raises a legitimate question: at a $1.31 price point and a multi-billion-dollar market cap, how much asymmetric upside actually remains? For traders comfortable with the risk profile of early-stage assets, the calculus looks different at the infrastructure layer.

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Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as a genuinely novel infrastructure play, the first Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine, delivering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while anchored to Bitcoin’s security model.

The presale has raised $32 million at a current price of just $0.013678, with healthy staking rewards available for early participants. The Decentralized Canonical Bridge enables native BTC transfers into the ecosystem, addressing Bitcoin’s longstanding programmability gap without sacrificing its trust layer.

More detail on Bitcoin Hyper is available here.

The post XRP Price Prediction: Can These 6 Ongoing Developments Save Ripple appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Riot Platforms Offloads 3,778 BTC Worth Over $250M

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Riot Platforms sold 3,778 Bitcoin for more than $250 million during the first quarter of 2025.
  • The company reduced its total Bitcoin holdings to 15,680 BTC after the sale.
  • Riot Platforms achieved an average selling price of over $76,000 per Bitcoin.
  • The firm has now sold Bitcoin in consecutive quarters after raising nearly $200 million late last year.
  • CEO Jason Les said earlier that sales were intended to fund ongoing growth and operations.

Riot Platforms sold more than $250 million in Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2025. The company confirmed it sold 3,778 BTC at an average price above $76,000. As a result, the firm reduced its total holdings to 15,680 BTC by the end of March.

Riot Platforms Cuts Bitcoin Holdings as Sales Extend Into Second Quarter

Riot Platforms reported that it sold 3,778 Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2025. The company achieved an average sale price above $76,000 per coin. Consequently, it reduced its Bitcoin reserves to 15,680 BTC at quarter’s end. The remaining holdings now carry a market value near $1.04 billion. Bitcoin traded at $66,844 at the time of valuation.

The Colorado-based miner has now sold Bitcoin in consecutive quarters. During November and December, it generated nearly $200 million from Bitcoin sales. The company has not yet disclosed detailed allocation plans for the recent proceeds. A company representative did not respond to a request for comment. However, earlier in 2025, CEO Jason Les addressed the purpose of prior sales.

Les stated that earlier Bitcoin sales aimed to “fund ongoing growth and operations.” He connected those operations to expanding infrastructure and computing capacity. The company outlined these objectives in its latest strategic business update. Riot Platforms has focused on increasing its data center capabilities. It also continues to adjust its capital structure through asset sales.

Riot Platforms Shifts Strategy Toward Data Center Development

Riot Platforms confirmed that it intends to expand beyond traditional Bitcoin mining. The firm stated that it plans to unlock its nearly two-gigawatt power portfolio. It aims to deploy that capacity for high-demand data center infrastructure. Les said, “2025 marked a watershed year for Riot.” He added that the company has transformed its future trajectory.

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The company explained that it previously used most of its power portfolio for Bitcoin mining. Now, it seeks to reallocate that capacity toward data center development. Riot Platforms stated that its long-term goal is “to fully utilize our power portfolio for data center development.” This shift aligns with ongoing operational restructuring. The firm continues to balance mining output with infrastructure planning.

An activist investor, Starboard Value, urged the company to accelerate its transition strategy. Starboard Value stated that the opportunity could add as much as $21 billion to Riot’s valuation. The investor called for a “renewed sense of urgency” in pursuing this plan. Meanwhile, shares of RIOT closed up 2.47% on Thursday. The stock recently traded at $12.86.

Over the past six months, RIOT shares have fallen more than 33%. During the same period, Bitcoin has declined 47% from its all-time high of $126,080. The company continues to report updates through formal filings and public statements. Riot Platforms has not announced further Bitcoin sales beyond the first quarter.

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Kalshi Onboards Ex-Democratic Strategist amid Legal Troubles

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Stephanie Cutter will join the prediction markets company as a policy adviser, having previously worked in Democratic lawmakers’ campaigns.

Predictions market platform Kalshi announced that a former staffer of US President Barack Obama had joined the company as a policy adviser.

In a Thursday notice, Kalshi said Stephanie Cutter would join the prediction markets company from Precision Strategies, a communications firm she co-founded in 2013. Kalshi said the addition of Cutter came as the company planned to “deepen its relationships in DC and across the country.”

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Source: Stephanie Cutter

According to Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour, Cutter’s experience allowed her to “get [the] message to the right people,” highlighting her background in government and politics. The predictions market already has staff with ties to the US government, including the appointment of the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., as a strategic adviser in January 2025, the week before his father took office.

In the last year, Kalshi has come under scrutiny from many US state-level authorities, who have filed lawsuits against the platform and other companies offering event contracts on prediction markets for sports, alleging that they constituted illegal bets.

Under Trump nominee Michael Selig, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has claimed that the agency has the “exclusive jurisdiction” to oversee such markets, filing lawsuits against state gaming regulators.

Related: Polymarket expands into equities and commodities with Pyth price feeds

Lawsuits and proposed legislation

Many Democrats in US Congress have also called for scrutiny into prediction markets after what they called “suspicious trades” related to the country’s invasion of Iran. Although Kalshi and Polymarket announced plans in March to implement guardrails to prevent accounts from using insider information, some lawmakers introduced legislation that could ban politicians from engaging in such bets on prediction markets.

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As of Friday, none of the bills proposed in Congress had been signed into law, and it was unclear what the outcome would be for many of the state-level lawsuits.

Magazine: Solana exec trolls crypto gamers, Pixel tackles play-to-earn issues: Web3 Gamer