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BTC quickly gives back gain as Trump tariffs struck down

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BTC quickly gives back gain as Trump tariffs struck down

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down President Trump’s tariff regime in a 6-3 decision.

“No President has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope,” the court ruling said.

“That lack of historical precedent, coupled with the breadth of authority that the President now claims, suggests that the tariffs extend beyond the President’s ‘legitimate reach.”

Bitcoin knee-jerked about 2% higher on the news, rising past the $68,000 level. As has been typical in crypto lately, though, the gain was reversed within minutes, returning to just below $67,000 at the current time.

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Crypto’s fleeting gains stood in contrast to what’s appearing more sustainable in stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 0.6% to a session high.

Stagflationary data

Earlier Friday, a batch of U.S. economic data showed signs of stagflationary impulses. The U.S. economy grew only a modest 1.4% in the final three months of 2025, the Commerce Department reported. Alongside core personal consumer expenditure prices rose 3% year-over-year, faster than the hoped for 2.9% and up from 2.8% previously.

On a yearly basis, the economy grew 2.2%, which is the slowest growth since Covid year 2020.

“Today’s economic data delivered a messy message of both hotter than expected inflation, and slower than anticipated growth,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said. “The confusing message from today’s data confirms the current Fed bias to take their time with monetary policy.”

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Crypto World

Only 1 in 10 Weak Token Launches Recovered in 2025: Arrakis

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End-of-year price performance of 125 TGEs in 2025. Source: Arrakis Finance

Data from more than 120 token launches shows that early sell pressure, not market timing, largely determined whether new tokens thrived in 2025.

New tokens struggled to find a floor in 2025, with early trading dynamics often setting a trajectory that proved hard to reverse as the year wore on, data shows.

An 80-page analysis by Arrakis Finance found that about 85% of tokens launched last year finished below their initial price, after reviewing 125 token generation events (TGE) and surveying more than 25 founding teams.

End-of-year price performance of 125 TGEs in 2025. Source: Arrakis Finance
End-of-year price performance of 125 TGEs in 2025. Source: Arrakis Finance

The data also shows that nearly two-thirds of tokens were already down within the first seven days, and only 9.4% of tokens that declined in the first week after TGE ever recovered to their launch price at any point later in the year. In most cases, early drawdowns deepened rather than reversed.

Week 1 performance vs end-of-year performance. Source: Arrakis Finance
Week 1 performance vs end-of-year performance. Source: Arrakis Finance

Airdrops were one of the strongest sources of immediate selling. Across multiple launches, Arrakis observed that up to 80% of airdrop recipients sold their positions on the very first day of TGE, creating concentrated sell pressure.

“The baseline assumption should be that most of an airdrop will be sold; recipients have zero cost basis and expect prices to decline, making immediate selling rational,” the report states.

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Market-making structures also mattered. Arrakis says liquidity was often mispriced, prompting traders to take quick exits.

“Liquidity depth is your buyer against sell pressure. Depth needs to absorb selling from airdrops, exchange allocations, and market maker loans without catastrophic price impact,” the report notes.

Arrakis concludes that token outcomes in 2025 were largely decided by launch mechanics rather than market cycles. Early supply shocks, not macro conditions, determined whether tokens stabilized or slid, and once early confidence was lost, recovery was statistically rare.

That finding broadly aligns with separate research from Dragonfly Capital, which recently found little difference in long-term performance between tokens launched in bull versus bear markets.

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As Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi explained, regardless of the timing, most tokens don’t perform well over time. Bull market launches recorded a median annualized return of about 1.3%, while bear-market launches came in at -1.3%.

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Supreme Court Rules Against Trump Tariffs Under IEEPA Law

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US Government, United States, Donald Trump

The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issued a ruling on Friday striking down most of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, with six of the nine Supreme Court justices ruling that the Executive Branch lacks authority to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

“IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” Friday’s ruling said, adding that the president has “no inherent authority” to impose tariffs during peacetime using the statutes in the IEEPA. The ruling read:

“In IEEPA’s half-century of existence, no president has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope. That ‘lack of historical precedent,’ coupled with the breadth of authority that the President now claims, suggests that the tariffs extend beyond the President’s ‘legitimate reach.’”

US Government, United States, Donald Trump
The SCOTUS opinion explaining the rationale behind the decision to strike down Trump’s ability to levy tariffs under IEEPA. Source: The Supreme Court

Trump claimed that the purported inflow of drugs from Canada, China and Mexico, as well as the “hollowing out” of the US industrial base, constituted a national emergency under IEEPA that justified the tariffs, which the court rejected.

Trump criticizes court, says he’ll get tariffs reinstated

In a press briefing following the decision, Trump lashed out at the justices who voted to strike down the tariffs and vowed to get them reinstated, Politico reported.

“The Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs is deeply disappointing, and I’m ashamed of certain members of the court, absolutely ashamed, for not having the courage to do what’s right for our country,” Politico cited him as saying.

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He said he would reinstate the tariffs by using “other alternatives.”

Trump’s tariffs sent shockwaves through asset markets in 2025, causing severe downturns in crypto and equities when a new round of tariffs was announced or even threatened, fueling macroeconomic uncertainty. 

Related: US stocks, crypto rise after Trump pauses planned European tariffs

Trump claims tariffs could replace income tax, but crypto markets are paying the price

In October 2024, while on the campaign trail, Trump floated the idea of replacing the federal income tax with revenue generated from tariffs. Trump said the tariffs would dramatically lower the US budget deficit.

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Federal taxes would be “substantially reduced” for individuals and households making less than $200,000 per year once tariff revenue started rolling in, Trump said in April 2025.

Trump announced 100% tariffs on China on Oct. 10, 2025. Within minutes, crypto markets plummeted, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from a high of about $122,000 to about $107,000 the same day the tariffs were announced.

US Government, United States, Donald Trump
Source: Truth Social

Analysts cited several reasons for the crash, including excessive leverage. However, traders overwhelmingly saw the 100% China tariffs as the catalyst for the crypto crash, according to market sentiment platform Santiment.

Crypto prices have yet to recover from October’s crash, and BTC remains nearly 50% below its all-time high of over $125,000 reached on October 6, despite Trump walking back his tariff policies.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

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