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BTC surely closer to bottom than top as bears celebrate

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BTC surely closer to bottom than top as bears celebrate

With crypto’s multi-month downturn accelerating into a freefall last week, bulls were frantically grasping for technical signals, or maybe yarns about the blowup of some leveraged hedge fund, that might signal a final bottom for this bear market.

Perhaps the ultimate sign of a bottom, though, might be the cheers arising from those who have been faithfully bearish on bitcoin as its price rose from $0 to more than $100,000 over its 16-year lifespan.

Over the years, the Financial Times has surely stood above all traditional publications in its steadfast opposition to bitcoin and crypto. The London paper’s team of truly talented writers has seemingly never wavered from a firm no-coiner stance, and this week was their moment.

“Bitcoin is still about $69,000 too high,” was the headline of a Sunday essay by the FT’s Jemima Kelly that wonderfully summed up Kelly’s and the FT’s general stance over the last decade-plus. [The FT subsequently changed the headline to “$70,000 too high” after bitcoin rose overnight].

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“Ever since its creation, bitcoin has been on a journey that will end, splattered on the ground,” Kelly wrote. “This week has shown us that the supply of ‘greater fools’ that bitcoin relies on is drying up,” she continued. “The fairy tales that have been keeping crypto afloat are turning out to be just that. People are beginning to wake up to the fact that there is no floor in the value of something based on nothing more than thin air.”

Earlier in the week, with the price of bitcoin declining below the $76,000 average cost basis of BTC treasury giant Strategy (MSTR), the FT’s Craig Coben published, “Strategy’s long road to nowhere.”

With the stock already down about 80% from its record high of late 2024, Coben in February 2026 declared, “Management has no safe choices — only different paths to destroying shareholder value … it is hard to see the case for buying into a vehicle that has merely broken even on its investments over five years.”

“Like a gigantic mastodon stuck in La Brea tar pits,” Coben concluded. “Strategy is flailing for a way out.”

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Peter Schiff joins in

With gold — despite a good deal of recent volatility — continuing in a major bull cycle, longtime goldbug and bitcoin critic Peter Schiff was feeling his oats as well.

“According to Michael Saylor, bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the world,” he wrote on Tuesday. “Yet Strategy invested over $54 billion in bitcoin over the past five years, and as of now the company is down about 3% on that investment. I’m sure the losses over the next five years will be much greater!”

“Bitcoin below $76,000, it’s now worth 15 ounces of gold, down 59% from its Nov. 2021 high,” Schiff continued. “Bitcoin is in a long-term bear market priced in gold.”

Other signs

“I refuse to pick bottoms,” once said former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry. “Monkeys spend all their time picking bottoms.”

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As Hendry noted, it’s probably a good idea not to get too cute timing one’s buys to headlines like those seen in the FT this week. It’s probably fairly safe to say, though, that some sort of bottoming process is underway.

In other news this week that would never appear near tops, it appears that investor interest in Tether is evaporating. With the crypto market still perky late last year, it was reported that the stablecoin issuing giant was in talks to raise $15-$20 billion at as much as a $500 billion valuation.

According to a report in the FT on Tuesday, however, investors appear to be pushing back against that valuation, and capital-raising efforts may only be on the order of about $5 billion.

For its part, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino told the FT that the original reports of a $15-$20 billion capital raise were a “misconception,” and that Tether had received plenty of interest at that $500 billion valuation.

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Nevertheless, according to the report, investors have privately raised concerns about that lofty valuation. Things are fluid, the report continued, and a crypto rally could quickly change sentiment.

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Crypto World

Get Ready for the Federal Reserve’s ‘Gradual Print’

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Federal Reserve, United States, Inflation, Interest Rate

Whether the Federal Reserve is engaging in quantitative easing is purely semantic, according to Alden, who says all roads lead to debasement.

The US Federal Reserve is entering into a “gradual” era of money printing that will stimulate asset prices “mildly” but will not be as dramatic as the “big print” that many in the Bitcoin (BTC) community anticipated, according to economist and Bitcoin advocate Lyn Alden.

“My base case is roughly in line with what the Fed expects: to grow its balance sheet approximately at the same proportional pace as total bank assets or nominal gross-domestic product (GDP),” Alden said in her Feb. 8 investment strategy newsletter, adding:

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“Overall, it means I continue to want to own high-quality scarce assets, with a tendency to rebalance away from extremely euphoric areas and toward under-owned areas.” 

Federal Reserve, United States, Inflation, Interest Rate
Federal Reserve M2, a measure of the money supply, continues to expand with time. Source: FRED

The comments followed US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which caused a furor among market traders, who perceived Warsh as more hawkish on interest rates than other potential Fed picks.

Interest rate policy can influence crypto prices. Expanding credit by increasing the money supply is typically seen as bullish for assets, and a contraction of the money supply through higher interest rates typically leads to economic slowdown and lower prices.

Related: Bitcoin investor sentiment cools amid US shutdown fears, Fed policy jitters

No rate cut expected at next FOMC meeting

Some 19.9% of traders expect an interest rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March, down from Saturday, when CME Fedwatch showed 23% of respondents forecast a rate cut. 

Federal Reserve, United States, Inflation, Interest Rate
Target rate probabilities ahead of the March FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly issued mixed forward guidance about interest rate policy despite slashing rates several times in 2025. 

“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell said following the December FOMC meeting.

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Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chairman expires in May 2025, and Warsh has yet to be confirmed as the next chairman by the US Senate, fueling investor uncertainty about the direction of interest rate policies in 2026.

Magazine: TradFi fans ignored Lyn Alden’s BTC tip — Now she says it’ll hit 7 figures: X Hall of Flame