Crypto World
BTC’s price bounce fails to convince options traders: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin’s price bounce sparked optimism on social media, with X users declaring the bottom is in and a new rally is underway. Options market activity, however, reveals savvy traders remain skeptical, hedging against the risk of a potential slide below $60,000.
“While the bounce triggered some call buying in the $85,000 to $90,000 strikes, downside skew remains more elevated than upside, suggesting caution,” Sidrah Fariq, head of retail at Deribit, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.
The demand for call options, or bullish bets, indicates that bitcoin’s Wednesday bounce to $70,000 has some traders chasing upside. However, skew, which measures prices for calls relative to puts, remains negative across all time frames. It shows that traders remain worried about price drops and are still seeking puts for downside protection.
Underlying that theme, on Deribit, the $60,000 put remains the most popular position, with notional open interest (OI) of $1.48 billion. In contrast, the most popular call option, the $90,000 strike, has OI of $1.12 billion. Clearly, the overall positioning remains bearish.
That said, there could be some consolidation, as dealer positioning — net exposure of those who make markets by providing liquidity — has flipped positive between $60,000 and $70,000. This means dealers could buy low and sell high to maintain a net-neutral exposure, capping swings as they do so.
“Dealer positioning has shifted to neutral to slightly positive gamma, suggesting compressed volatility and range-bound price action,” Fariq said.
Other analysts are looking at the $74,000-$75,000 range as the level to beat for confirming a renewed uptrend.
Bitcoin was recently trading near $68,500, up 4.6% on the day, while the broader market posted bigger gains, as evidenced by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index’s 5.8% advance. Ether (ETH) has risen over 8%, and XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) both rose more than 6%.
In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were little changed despite the AI giant Nvidia (NVDA) posting a blowout fourth-quarter earnings report. Gold and the Dollar Index ticked higher as investors awaited details on the U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for later in the day. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending Feb. 21 (Prev. 206K)
- Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman to testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 26: American Bitcoin (ABTC), pre-market, $0.01
- Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, -$0.11
- Feb 26: TeraWulf (WULF), post-market, -$0.15
- Feb. 26: Figure Technologies (FIGR), post-market,$0.20
- Feb. 26: Sui Group (SUIG), post-market, $0.01
- Feb. 26: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.49
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.52% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $68,590.57 (24hrs: +4.67%)
- ETH is down 1.16% at $2,075.97 (24hrs: +8.36%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.27% at 2,011.66 (24hrs: +5.83%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.5595% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.75
- Gold futures are down 0.41% at $5,204.60
- Silver futures are down 3.98% at $87.99
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.29% at 58,753.39
- Hang Seng closed down 1.44% at 26,381.02
- FTSE is up 0.17% at 10,824.61
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 6,188.91
- DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.63% at 49,482.15
- S&P 500 closed up 0.81% at 6,946.13
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.26% at 23,152.08
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 34,127.33
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.68% at 3,826.41
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 4.052%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,958.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,380.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.13% at 49,471.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.55% (+0.12%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03023 (-0.12%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,058 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.79
- Total fees: 2.91 BTC / $194,801
- CME Futures Open Interest: 112,135 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.57%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format since mid-2024.
- While prices have bounced strongly this week, they remain well below the $73,000-$74,000 zone that is a former support-turned-resistance.
- The broader outlook, therefore, remains bearish. Prices need to overcome that resistance to confirm a trend reversal higher.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $183.94 (+13.52%), +0.95% at $185.69 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.14 (+35.47%), +0.71% at $83.73
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.83 (+5.99%), +1.40% at $23.15
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.89 (+6.92%), -1.03% at $32.55
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.57 (+6.46%), unchanged in pre-market
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.08 (+3.52%), -0.12% at $17.06
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.08 (+1.18%), -0.22% at $18.04
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.45 (+0.97%), +0.29% at $10.48
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.34 (-0.87%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.63 (+8.91%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.65 (+8.86%), -0.18% at $135.41
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.54 (+19.19%), -1.41% at $8.42
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.44 (+13.59%), +0.27% at $7.46
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.83 (+35.86%), +4.53% at $0.86
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.18 (+6.31%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $506.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.56 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $157.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.64 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
“The growth in Cardano’s technology has been amazing, and the best is yet to come,” one X user stroke back.
Cardano’s native token reached an all-time high of almost $3.10 in late 2021. Despite sporadic runs in the following years, it has not managed to break its record and is currently worth around $0.29, representing a staggering 90% decline from the historic peak.
The steep decline has left many investors frustrated, including popular content creator Jake Gagain, who described ADA as one of his worst investments since entering the crypto market.
Wasting “Such a Great Opportunity?’
Besides expressing regret over his investment, Gagain emphasized that Cardano still has a strong community and huge potential. He said he was disappointed to see the team waste “such a great opportunity” and asked his followers whether they still hold ADA.
His post on X sparked a heated debate, with many users sharing their experiences with the token. One person agreed with Gagain, arguing that Cardano’s community is among the most dedicated, “but the execution and speed have just been painful to watch for years now.”
The discontent was echoed by numerous others, some of whom pledged to step away from ADA and all altcoins for good and to shift their capital solely to Bitcoin (BTC) from now on.
Others differentiated from this thesis. X user Michael Lesser claimed that Gagain doesn’t understand the definition of a bear market, adding that his timing is bad.
“If you have an investment thesis and patience, ‘paper losses’ are just that. The growth in Cardano’s technology has been amazing, and the best is yet to come,” he said.
Many investors who remain optimistic said they would keep accumulating ADA, convinced that the token will set a new all-time high sooner or later. Some even flashed the “diamond hands” emoji to signal their determination not to sell under any circumstances.
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Meanwhile, certain X users attacked Gagain for promoting meme coins, which performed much worse than ADA. In the summer of 2024, for instance, he claimed that NEIRO could be the next “billion-plus dollar project” on the Ethereum blockchain. It is important to note that the asset’s market cap briefly surged above $1 billion in late 2024, but since then, it has been in a sharp decline, and its current capitalization stands at less than $30 million.
What’s Next for ADA?
Cardano’s native token has been among the biggest beneficiaries of the recent market resurgence, with its price rallying by 9% on a weekly scale. The recent whale activity suggests a further jump might be on the way.
As CryptoPotato reported, large investors have scooped up almost 820 million coins over the past six months, thus increasing their total holdings to 25.36 billion tokens, or nearly 70% of ADA’s circulating supply.
Big purchases of this type leave fewer tokens on the open market, which could result in a surging price (should demand remain constant or rise). Whales’ buying also sends a strong signal that they believe in the asset’s long-term future, and that confidence could draw smaller players into the ecosystem.
Some analysts observed ADA’s recent comeback and envisioned further gains if key levels are reclaimed. X user Nehal argued that breaking and holding above $0.30 could lead to a pump to $0.32 and $0.34.
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US-based asset manager REX Shares has launched an exchange-traded fund that bundles leveraged covered-call strategies tied to nine individual stocks, including crypto-linked names Coinbase and Strategy, into a single income-focused product trading under the ticker GIF.
According to Thursday’s announcement, the fund holds equal-weighted positions in REX’s existing single-stock Growth & Income ETFs, each of which targets about 1.25x exposure to its underlying equity while writing covered calls on a portion of the portfolio to generate option premium income.
GIF trades on Cboe Global Markets and each underlying ETF seeks to distribute income on a weekly basis, with payouts largely derived from covered call premiums.
Covered call premiums are the upfront payments a fund collects for selling options on stocks it already owns, generating income in exchange for capping some of the shares’ upside potential.
REX Shares said the ETF holds equal-weighted exposure to nine REX funds tied to Nvidia (NVII), Tesla (TSII), Strategy (MSII), Coinbase (COII), Robinhood (HOII), Palantir (PLTI), CoreWeave (CWII), Eli Lilly (LLII) and Walmart (WMTI), spanning crypto-linked equities, technology, AI, healthcare and retail sectors.
Related: Michael Saylor says quantum threat to Bitcoin is more than 10 years away
21Shares lists STRC ETP as companies add Strategy preferred shares to treasuries
The launch comes amid a week of new allocations tied to Strategy-linked securities.
On Wednesday, 21Shares introduced an exchange-traded product (ETP) giving European investors exposure to STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock. The 21Shares Strategy Yield ETP began trading on Euronext Amsterdam under the ticker STRC NA on Thursday.
Also on Wednesday, Strategy said Prevalon Energy, an energy infrastructure company, and Anchorage Digital, a crypto-focused digital asset bank, had allocated portions of their corporate treasuries to STRC, though they did not disclose the size of their positions.
Strategy describes STRC as a digital credit instrument with an 11.25% annual dividend, part of its broader effort to issue fixed-income securities tied to its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings.
Since adopting its Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020, Strategy has become the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reporting 717,722 BTC, or about 3.4% of the fixed 21 million supply.
Despite demand for Strategy-linked securities, the company’s shares have fallen alongside Bitcoin’s price. The stock is down more than 60% over the past six months and about 50% over the past year, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Strategy has also emerged as the most heavily shorted large-cap US stock on Goldman Sachs’ latest ranking, based on short interest relative to market value.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation: Santiment founder
Crypto investigator ZachXBT detailed the results of a recent investigation today that show how a group of Axiom employees allegedly abused weak internal controls to spy on sensitive user data and carry out insider trading using wallet activity.
The previously teased exposé shows a group of Axiom employees and moderators discussing how they used the company’s dashboard to pull up “anything” on its users.
They apparently mapped out key opinion leaders (KOLs) within the crypto industry and targeted wallet details made available by one of the company’s senior business development professionals, Broox Bauer.
The group was recorded strategizing on how to insider trade and showed Bauer describing the ways he can pull up Axiom user data by tracking a user’s reference code, wallet, or user ID.
Bauer lays out ground rules to his group during the call, telling them not to send any Discord messages alluding to what they’re doing, and promising that if they send him specific identifying information, he’ll then get them “what they need.”
Read more: Here’s how insiders dump blockchain game tokens using Sybil attacks
Bauer also details how he’s slowly increased the number of wallets he’s probing from an initial 10 to 20 “so it does not look that suspicious.” He also promises one of his members a profit of $200,000 thanks to his access to Axiom’s data.
ZachXBT’s findings also revealed how the group targeted “a trader with a poor reputation for using his followers on X and Telegram as exit liquidity.”
Indeed, one member in the call says, “Time to farm the farmers.”
Axiom shocked by ZachXBT’s findings
In response to ZachXBT’s investigation, Axiom said it’s “shocked and disappointed to hear that someone on our team abused internal customer support tools to look up user wallets.”
“We have removed access to these tools and will continue to investigate and hold the offending parties responsible,” the crypto exchange said, adding, “This does not represent us as a team, we have always tried to put the user first. We’ll share updates on our twitter as we learn more.”
ZachXBT hinted that the insider trading evidence might be fit for a legal case against the alleged group in the Southern District of New York.
He said, “Whether or not criminal charges are filed, I hope the Axiom co-founders further investigate the abuse and consider taking legal action against the employees involved.”
ZachXBT’s Axiom teaser caused $38 million hype train
On February 23, ZachXBT announced that he’d undertaken a “major investigation” into one of “crypto’s most profitable businesses where multiple employees abused internal data to insider trade over a prolonged period of time.”
This teaser said all would be revealed today, sending Crypto Twitter into speculation overdrive as users tried to guess which firm he was talking about. The post alone has over 11 million views.
It soon caught Polymarket’s attention, and it launched a prediction market based on which firm would be outed.
This market attracted $38 million in trading volume, with Polymarket also taking bets on which day the investigation would be released and at what specific time.
Read more: Israeli soldier allegedly used military secrets to gamble on Polymarket
Ironically, some in crypto warned users to avoid this particular market, as the potential for somebody related to the investigation to use insider information to trade on the market is high.
ZachXBT also noted that after the teaser was dropped, “prediction market bros started raiding my DMs for insider info.” He also suggested that the number of interviewees means a “leak is probably inevitable.”
One Axiom employee was left red-faced when they confidently denounced Axiom’s potential to be in ZachXBT’s exposé. They have since apologised for their wayward takes.
“Devin” has also subsequently claimed that they’d been trading in this prediction market about the firm where they work and lost $20,000 as a result.
The potential for insider trading is a frequent criticism of prediction markets. Indeed, Polymarket rival Kalshi fined Mr. Beast’s editor, Artem Kaptur, for insider trading ahead of various markets related to his YouTube channel.
Kalshi also fined the former California Governor Kyle Langford for using non-public information to insider trade in his own elections.
An investigation was also opened by Israel against two military personnel who were accused of using military secrets to insider trade markets involving missile strikes against Iran.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Circle (CRCL), issuer of the USDC stablecoin, continues to surge, now 45% higher in less than two sessions following its Wednesday fourth quarter earnings report.
The move snapped what had been a brutal 80% drawdown from record highs hit last year.
While the company delivered strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s outsized reaction was driven more by crowded short bets heading into the print than by strong financials, analysts suggested.
“The magnitude of the move was not driven purely by the headline numbers. The real catalyst was positioning,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
Hedge funds had built sizable bearish exposure into the report, according to his data. That setup pointed to a “high-probability short squeeze rather than a fundamental re-rating,” Thielen added.
He estimated that hedge funds had lost roughly $500 million in a single day on shorts as shares squeezed higher.
Tough business
While Circle’s report produced positive headline numbers, digging deeper into the data shows that the profitability of the business slipped despite growing stablecoin demand.
On the fundamentals, Circle’s flagship USDC stablecoin grew to $75.3 billion in circulation, up 72% year over year and outpacing rival Tether’s USDT growth, Harvey Li, founder of Tokenization Insight, noted in a report.
Revenue from reserve income — primarily U.S. government debt backing USDC — rose 58% to $2.64 billion as benchmark interest rates compressed over the past year. But distribution costs climbed even faster, up 66% to $1.66 billion, underscoring the expense of incentivizing partners and platforms to expand adoption.
Despite surging circulation, Circle swung from a $156 million net profit in 2024 to a $70 million loss, Li pointed out.
“Stablecoin may be scaling; stablecoin issuance is a tough business,” Li said.
Beating expectations
Still, Circle topped analyst forecasts.
Japanese investment bank Mizuho raised its price target on Circle to $90 from $77 after the stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, citing a boost from prediction markets and growing optimism around “agentic commerce,” in which autonomous AI agents transact using Circle’s USDC stablecoin.
The firm reiterated its neutral rating on the stock, warning that lower interest rates could still weigh on reserve income.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said Circle’s results topped expectations on both revenue and profit, easing investor concerns after a period of pessimism. Management highlighted prediction and betting platforms, particularly Polymarket, as meaningful drivers of recent USDC growth, pointing to their high-frequency transaction flows and near-term utility.
The analysts noted that company executives also underscored USDC’s emerging role in agentic commerce, describing the stablecoin as a potential default currency for AI agents transacting across digital marketplaces. A growing number of products are being built on USDC and connected to Circle’s network, with trading and prediction platforms serving as prominent examples of high-velocity use cases.
The bank now forecasts average USDC in circulation of roughly 123 million in 2027, modeling reserve income of about $3.7 billion and EBITDA of $916 million that year, assuming rate cuts in line with consensus expectations. Applying a 24x EBITDA multiple, a premium to peers such as Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), the analysts arrived at their new $90 price target.
With just days left in February, crypto whales are quietly repositioning. The broader market remains uncertain, but on-chain data tells a different story. Large holders are selectively adding exposure across three tokens — one seeking direction, one seeking a breakout, and one targeting greater upside.
As March approaches, the big holders appear to be making their move early.
Uniswap (UNI)
Uniswap is among the more interesting names showing crypto whale activity heading into March. Despite a broader market pullback, UNI is up nearly 15.5% over the past 24 hours, briefly spiking to $4.29 before pulling back sharply.
Yet crypto whales are not flinching. On-chain data shows large holders increased their UNI holdings from 639.06 million to 640 million tokens. And they did all of that on February 26 alone. At the current price, that sudden accumulation is worth roughly $1 million over a few hours, reflecting quiet conviction even as the price corrected from its intraday high.
The chart context explains why. UNI has been consolidating inside a developing symmetrical triangle, with lower highs being met by higher lows as both trendlines converge. The past two attempts to break above the upper resistance were rejected hard, with sellers stepping in precisely at the triangle boundary. The large wick from today’s session is a direct reflection of that dynamic — momentum pushing up, supply pushing back.
However, smart money positioning remains aggressive, as the Smart Money Index is still way above the signal line. This keeps the possibility of a breakout alive if broader market conditions improve. A confirmed 12-hour close above $4.21 would validate the breakout and give UNI a possible bullish direction. That would open upside toward $4.88 and potentially $5.95 if DeFi rotation picks up meaningfully through March.
On the downside, $3.81 is the key support. A break there risks pushing UNI toward the lower triangle boundary. However, buyers have consistently defended that zone since early February, suggesting the symmetrical structure remains intact and continues narrowing. However, if the broader market sell-off begins, traders need to keep a close eye on whale and smart money positioning.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
Bitcoin Cash is another name where whale accumulation has turned suddenly aggressive. BCH is up just 1.5% in the past 24 hours, underperforming the broader market. But zoom out, and Bitcoin Cash is up nearly 70% year-on-year. That is a standout number. Most major crypto names cannot say the same.
That long-term strength appears to be driving fresh conviction. The largest BCH holder cohort, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 coins, increased their stash from 4.3 million to 4.4 million today, almost $50 million. The move was rapid and decisive. Notably, these whales were steadily reducing holdings until February 25. Then the shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern formed.
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Price began moving on February 24. By February 26, accumulation kicked in sharply. The timing is deliberate. Whales waited for the pattern to develop before committing. That is disciplined positioning, not reactive buying. On the 8-hour chart, BCH has rallied roughly 10% since February 24, only to pull back.
It is now approaching the neckline of that inverse head-and-shoulders formation. A confirmed break above $598 would signal a breach of the neckline, which BCH could attempt in March. Based on pattern projection, that opens a path toward $777. However, it would first need to push past $570, a strong technical resistance, before that.
Given BCH’s year-on-year track record, both the targets, first the neckline at 19% and then the target, are not far-fetched. However, the setup has clear invalidation levels. Failure to reclaim $508 would be an early warning sign. A drop below $470 weakens the pattern meaningfully. A close under $423 invalidates the structure entirely, and the whale thesis unravels with it.
Chainlink (LINK)
Chainlink rounds out the three tokens where crypto whale accumulation has turned decisive heading into March. LINK saw continuous whale selling through February 25. That changed on February 26. Large holders increased their stash from 591.96 million to 592.33 million tokens. That is an addition of 370,000 LINK. At the current price, that accumulation is worth roughly $3.5 million — a sudden shift in positioning.
The trigger is clear. On the 12-hour chart, Chainlink broke out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern yesterday, as predicted by BeInCrypto Analysts. This is not anticipatory buying. Whales moved after the breakout was confirmed, adding on evidence rather than speculation.
Since the breakout, LINK has met resistance at $9.62 and pulled back, possibly due to profit-taking. However, it is holding firmly near $9.28, a strong support zone. That level needs to hold for the bullish structure to remain intact.
There is another layer of strength here. The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, crossed above the zero line on February 20. That cross preceded the breakout, signaling institutional money flowing into LINK before the price moved. CMF currently sits at 0.13.
A push toward 0.18 would confirm deepening institutional participation and give LINK the momentum needed for the next leg.
If buying resumes and sentiment holds, a move above $9.62 followed by $10.05 opens the path toward the realized projection target of $11.70.
Invalidation is straightforward. A correction toward $8.51 is the first warning. A close below $8.04 weakens the structure considerably and puts the entire bullish thesis at risk.
Bitcoin price faces growing downside risks after rejecting major resistance near $69,700. Weak bullish volume and loss of key support levels now raise the probability of a corrective move toward $62,000.
Summary
- Rejection at $69,700 0.618 Fibonacci resistance confirms weakness
- Loss of Point of Control signals bearish short-term structure
- $62,000 support becomes next key downside target
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent recovery rally appears to be losing momentum after price action encountered strong resistance at a critical technical zone. The market briefly pushed higher but failed to sustain acceptance above a key Fibonacci resistance level, signaling exhaustion among buyers.
Bitcoin price key technical points
- Major Resistance: $69,700 aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
- Structural Shift: Bitcoin has closed below the Point of Control, signaling rejection.
- Downside Target: Weak volume increases the probability of a move toward $62,000 support.
Bitcoin recently traded into a major resistance cluster around $69,700, a region defined by both historical supply and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This level typically represents a decisive barrier during corrective rallies, often separating continuation from rejection. Price action briefly tested the zone but failed to establish acceptance above it, leading to a clear rejection signal.
The rejection becomes more significant when viewed through volume dynamics. Despite the upward move, bullish participation has remained relatively weak compared to prior impulsive expansions. Rising prices without corresponding volume expansion often indicate a lack of conviction among buyers. Instead of sustained accumulation, the rally appears driven more by short-term positioning rather than strong market demand.
Following the rejection, Bitcoin has now moved back below the Point of Control (POC) of the current trading range. The POC represents the price level with the highest traded volume and often acts as equilibrium within a market structure. Losing this level on a closing basis suggests that buyers failed to maintain control, confirming resistance rather than reclaiming it.
This structural development shifts short-term bias toward consolidation or correction, even as Indiana lawmakers approved House Bill 1042, known as the Bitcoin Rights Bill, sending the measure to Governor Mike Braun for final approval and reinforcing ongoing institutional and legislative engagement with digital assets.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains within a broader trading range rather than a confirmed bullish trend. Failed breakouts at key Fibonacci resistance frequently lead to rotational moves back toward lower liquidity zones. In this case, the next logical destination sits near $62,000, where high timeframe support and prior demand previously triggered strong reactions.
A corrective move toward $62,000 would not necessarily invalidate the broader bullish outlook. Instead, such a pullback could represent a healthy reset following a weak rally attempt. Markets often revisit strong support zones to rebuild liquidity before initiating sustained directional moves. The absence of strong bullish volume during the recent rise reinforces this scenario, suggesting the market may require further consolidation before another expansion phase develops.
Conversely, an increase in bearish volume could accelerate downside momentum toward deeper support zones if sentiment deteriorates further, especially as Bitcoin remains roughly 50% below its all-time high with a growing share of supply now held at a loss following months of sustained selling pressure.
Overall, Bitcoin’s technical landscape currently reflects hesitation rather than strength. The inability to reclaim resistance combined with fading bullish volume suggests that upside momentum is weakening, placing increased importance on upcoming support reactions.
What to expect in the coming price action
Bitcoin’s next directional move will likely depend on whether buyers can quickly reclaim lost volume support. Failure to do so increases the probability of a corrective move toward $62,000, while a reclaim of the POC would invalidate the bearish scenario and restore bullish continuation potential.
Although hackers made less money overall last year, victims who paid faced far higher bills than a year earlier.
Ransomware crypto payments stalled for a second year in 2025, even as attacks hit record levels and ransom demands jumped. Data from Chainalysis shows that total on-chain payments fell about 8% from a year earlier to roughly $820 million, while claimed attacks rose by about 50%.
The biggest shift was in how much victims paid when they did give in. The median ransom payment surged 368% year-over-year to nearly $60,000 from about $12,700 in 2024.
Jackie Koven, head of cyber threat intelligence at Chainalysis, told The Defiant that the surge in median payment is “likely not related to price,” adding that ransomware actors “anchor their extortion demands in USD or other fiat currencies, not BTC.”
“So if they are demanding $1M, as an example, it doesn’t matter whether BTC is priced at 1M or 10k. The increase in median ransom is more likely related to high outlier payments rather than a return to big-game hunting ransomware tactics that dominated in the past,” Koven explained.
Only 28% of victims paid a ransom in 2025, the lowest rate on record.
“This overall trend is a major win against the ransomware ecosystem. Fewer victim payments mean more work for less for attackers, an important step in shifting the economic incentives,” the report reads.
There were still several high-impact incidents that shaped the year. A cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover in late August 2025 halted production across multiple countries and caused an estimated $2.5 billion in damage, the costliest cyber incident in UK history.
Retailers and hospitals were also hit hard. Major British multinational retailer Marks & Spencer suffered long outages after an attack tied to the Scattered Spider group, while global healthcare provider DaVita reported exposure of nearly 2.7 million patient records.
The U.S. stayed the top target worldwide, with Canada, Germany, and the UK behind it, and attacks rose sharply in manufacturing, finance, supply chains, and critical infrastructure, Chainalysis says.
Avalanche (AVAX), a layer-1 blockchain once viewed as a rival to Ethereum in 2021, has seen its price fall more than 94% from its all-time high (ATH). By 2026, the question remains whether any catalysts can help this altcoin stage a comeback.
Behind the disappointing price performance, infrastructure developments and growing institutional adoption are shaping a potentially promising recovery scenario for the ecosystem.
A Boost From Japan: When $2 Billion Moves “On-Chain” With Avalanche
One of the most significant developments strengthening Avalanche’s position is Progmat’s decision to migrate its assets to Avalanche, Japan’s largest digital securities (security token) platform.
More than $2 billion in tokenized real-world assets (RWA), including real estate and corporate bonds, are moving from the Corda platform to Avalanche.
An Avalanche report states that Progmat currently accounts for approximately 63% of issuance volume and 53.8% of projects in Japan’s digital securities market, with total issuance value exceeding ¥216.9 billion. The market is expected to surpass ¥1.05 trillion (approximately $7 billion) by the end of 2026.
Progmat’s decision to choose Avalanche over competing platforms represents a strong endorsement of Avalanche’s technology. The network enables financial institutions to create customized blockchains that comply with regulations while leveraging the security of the main network.
How VanEck Views Avalanche
A recent report from investment firm VanEck outlines the reasons Avalanche continues to maintain its appeal.
VanEck highlights that the system’s core lies in its Snowman consensus mechanism. This mechanism allows block production in just 1.2 seconds and achieves near-instant transaction finality.
“Avalanche competitor Ethereum produces blocks every 12 seconds while finality takes around 12.8 minutes. This allows Avalanche users to recognize settlement of their transactions within a few seconds, giving the chain significant practical advantages for financial use cases,” the VanEck report states.
The report also emphasizes that Avalanche’s lower transaction fees compared to competitors provide a competitive advantage.
In addition, VanEck’s spot Avalanche ETF remains the only AVAX ETF currently trading on the market.
However, data indicate that investor demand for exposure remains modest. After one month of trading, total net assets reached $11.5 million. By comparison, LINK ETFs have attracted more than $81 million, while SOL ETFs have surpassed $800 million.
Can AVAX Regain Its Former Glory?
A report from CryptoRank shows that among leading altcoins, AVAX and DOT have experienced the worst drawdowns, each exceeding 94%. Such a decline represents a major shock for many investors.
However, Data from Avalanche signals positive momentum in February as users return to the network. Daily active addresses climbed above 1,300,000, marking the highest level in this layer-1 blockchain’s history.
“AVAX’s new slogan should be: Believe in the tech, not in the price,” investor Emperor Osmo stated.
A recent report by BeInCrypto also points to widespread negative sentiment, prompting many investors to hesitate before allocating capital. However, when capital flows return, projects with strong fundamentals may become priority choices for investors.
Kraken introduces Flexline for Pro users
Kraken has introduced Kraken Flexline, a crypto-backed loan product to Kraken Pro members. The service enables users to borrow against supported digital assets without the need to sell their holdings. The company targets advanced and institutional traders through its Pro platform.
Flexline provides two-day to two-year-term, fixed-rate loans. Borrowers will be able to get proceeds in cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Therefore, eligible users may trade the funds on the platform or withdraw them, depending on jurisdictional rules. Kraken has restricted access in several countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom.
Annual percentage rates range from 10% to 25%, according to the exchange’s website. Kraken has not disclosed specific loan-to-value ratios. Users may repay loans early through their account balances, although early repayment fees apply.
Collateral structure and risk controls
Kraken demands borrowers to post supported cryptocurrencies as collateral. The funds are credited to the platform virtually immediately upon approval. The exchange maintains collateral in segregated wallets and incorporates it into its Proof of Reserves attestations, which certify client assets on a 1:1 basis.
Source: Kraken
Kraken can sell off collateral in case a borrower does not meet maintenance obligations or does not repay the loan before the maturity date. According to the exchange, these controls are meant to contain credit risk and ensure transparency. The company markets the product as a formalized alternative to unstructured crypto lending services at variable rates.
Crypto-backed lending gains momentum across exchanges, DeFi and traditional finance
Kraken’s launch follows renewed revival of crypto-backed lending markets. Coinbase has recently increased its collateral loan provision. US eligible users are now able to borrow up to $100,000 in USDC with collateral against assets like XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Litecoin.
Holding XRP, DOGE, ADA, or LTC?
Now you can unlock the value of your portfolio without giving up your position.
Borrow up to $100k in USDC against your tokens, instantly, without selling.
Available now in the U.S. (ex. NY). pic.twitter.com/Uozxim3t7C
— Coinbase 🛡️ (@coinbase) February 18, 2026
Decentralized finance lending protocols also continue to grow. DeFiLlama data indicates that the sector carries a total value of approximately $51.9 billion, of which nearly $30.8 billion is borrowed. Apollo Global Management also ventured into the space by partnering in the blockchain-based lending infrastructure.
The trends signal continued interest in crypto-backed liquidity solutions in exchanges, DeFi and traditional finance.
XRP has a liquidity problem that has nothing to do with price: More than 2 billion tokens, or about 3.5% of the circulating supply, aren’t actually circulating.
The tokens, valued around $3 billion, are held in wallets from Xaman, and are largely locked out of decentralized finance (DeFi). To access DeFi means downloading new wallets, bridging assets across chains, managing gas tokens and navigating unfamiliar interfaces. Most holders never bothered.
Now, Xaman said it has reached an agreement with the Flare blockchain that will reduce the process into a single transaction, allowing users to deposit their XRP directly into a curated vault on the Flare blockchain.
The system rests on three components working in the background.
First are FAssets, which create a trust-minimized representation of XRP on Flare — effectively a wrapped version of the token that can interact with smart contracts. Then come Flare Smart Accounts, which abstract away the need for users to manage a second wallet. Instead of juggling private keys across chains, users authorize transactions with their existing XRPL credentials. Finally, Xaman acts as the front-end, embedding the process directly inside the wallet many XRP holders already use.
From the user’s perspective, the process is reduced to a single action. Behind the scenes, the transaction carries detailed instructions. Flare’s Data Connector validates the request, while Smart Account controllers handle the minting of the wrapped asset, allocation into vault strategies and any subsequent yield distribution. What would typically require bridging assets, acquiring gas tokens and interacting with multiple decentralized applications is compressed into one workflow.
“This integration lets our users explore new options directly from the wallet they already know, while keeping full control of their keys and decisions,” said Wietse Wind, founder of Xaman, in a statement to CoinDesk.
The vault strategies themselves are managed by Upshift and curated by Clearstar, which oversee capital deployment and risk management. While specific yield targets were not disclosed, the strategies are built around familiar DeFi primitives such as lending markets, collateralized positions and structured products.
There are early signs that XRP holders are willing to experiment. Flare’s FXRP — its existing wrapped XRP token — has surpassed 100 million in minted supply, with more than 60 million currently deployed across staking programs and structured products. That growth suggests at least some appetite for putting XRP to work, rather than leaving it idle.
The broader backdrop makes the timing notable. XRP rose 6% earlier this week amid a 212% spike in retail buying volume, and exchange-traded fund inflows have remained positive since their November launch. Yet much of that activity reflects directional bets on price.
For XRP’s DeFi ambitions — sometimes dubbed “XRPFi” — the bigger challenge has been usability, not demand. If billions of dollars’ worth of tokens are effectively stranded by friction, lowering that friction may matter more than another rally. Infrastructure that turns passive holdings into productive capital could determine whether XRP’s DeFi narrative evolves beyond branding.
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