Connect with us

Crypto World

But On-Chain Data Tells a Different Story

Published

on

Ethereum Floods Out of Exchanges in Biggest Withdrawal Wave Since October


Just before the complete exit, Yi predicted ETH would reach $10,000, and BTC would surpass $200,000.

Trend Research, the trading firm led by Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi, has fully exited its Ethereum positions, closing out what was once Asia’s largest ETH long, according to on-chain monitoring platform Arkham.

At its peak, Trend Research held approximately $2.1 billion in leveraged Ethereum long positions, accumulated by borrowing stablecoins against ETH collateral.

Advertisement

Bullish Tweets, Brutal Exit

Arkham data revealed that the firm closed its final ETH position on Sunday. The exit resulted in a total realized loss of roughly $869 million. Interestingly, the complete exit followed several days of position reductions as Ether’s price declined toward the $1,750 level, which triggered stress across leveraged positions in the market.

Notably, Yi had publicly reiterated his bullish outlook just days before the firm fully exited its ETH exposure. In a post on X published four days prior to the final exit, Yi said Trend Research remained “bullish on the next major bull market,” and even predicted that ETH would go beyond $10,000 and Bitcoin above $200,000. He described the firm as having made “partial adjustments to manage risk.”

Yi also addressed broader market conditions in the post, and spoke about the lack of liquidity and alleged platform-driven manipulation. Despite these concerns, he maintained that the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry remained intact. He further asserted that current prices represented an attractive entry point for spot positions when viewed on a multi-year horizon, while acknowledging that extreme volatility has historically forced many bullish traders out of positions before subsequent rebounds.

Accumulation Trend During Market Stress

Amidst the market turmoil, Ethereum “accumulating addresses” – defined as wallets with no history of outflows, balances of at least 100 ETH, and no association with exchanges, miners, or smart contracts – currently hold 27 million ETH, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis. This figure represents approximately 23% of Ether’s circulating supply.

Advertisement

CryptoQuant also found that the altcoin has traded below the realized price of these accumulating addresses only twice in its history. The first time was when the market hit a low in 2025, while the second has been unfolding since January 2026. This means that accumulating addresses have continued to add to positions despite recent price declines and the forced unwinding of leveraged trades

You may also like:

SPECIAL OFFER (Exclusive)

SECRET PARTNERSHIP BONUS for CryptoPotato readers: Use this link to register and unlock $1,500 in exclusive BingX Exchange rewards (limited time offer).

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Crypto World

Weekly Bitcoin Buys Produce The Best Returns Across Bull And Bear Markets

Published

on

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment, Investment 101, Bitcoin Adoption

Smart investors adjust their strategy during bear markets and 50% drawdowns like the one seen in Bitcoin (BTC) over the last five months. The strategy, known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), involves investing the same amount at regular intervals regardless of market conditions. 

Historical market cycle data and forward-looking BTC price simulations provide a clearer view of how these steady investment patterns develop across different entry periods and time horizons.

A five-year Bitcoin DCA stack shows strong net gains

A $250 weekly Bitcoin purchase starting in January 2021 resulted in $67,500 invested over a five-year period. Based on DCA simulation data, the strategy accumulated 1.65097905 BTC at an average purchase price of $40,884.

At the current Bitcoin price near $71,000, that 1.65097905 BTC is valued at roughly $120,518, representing a $53,018 gain (76%) on the invested capital. When Bitcoin traded for $100,000, the holdings were worth about $165,098, while at the cycle peak near $126,000 in October 2025, the same amount reached $208,023.

Advertisement
Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment, Investment 101, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin DCA cycle 2021-2026. Source: Newhedge

A shorter accumulation window illustrates how entry timing changes the early outcome while the strategy continues building exposure. A $250 weekly DCA beginning January 2024 results in $28,500 invested, accumulating 0.36863166 BTC with an average purchase price of $77,312.

At the current price of $71000, the amount is valued at about $26,909, a –6% unrealized loss. At $100,000, the holdings had risen to $36,863, while a $126,000 cycle high valued the Bitcoin at $46,448.

In a February X post, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared a similar DCA approach against equities over the past five years. A $100 weekly allocation produced $42,508 in Bitcoin versus $37,470 in S&P 500 (SPX), representing 62.9% and 43.6% returns, respectively.

Livingston noted that purchasing Bitcoin consistently during drawdowns has historically produced stronger cumulative returns despite the price volatility.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment, Investment 101, Bitcoin Adoption
$100 DCA cycle into BTC and SPX. Source: Adam Livingston/X

Related: Bitcoin’s bullish momentum accelerates but topping $78K remains a challenge

Long-term models emphasize the time horizon

Forward-looking simulations examine how the DCA strategy could work from 2026 onward. A $250 weekly DCA beginning January 2026 allocates about $54,250 by March 2030.

Advertisement

The price assumptions come from Bitcoin’s long-term power-law growth curve, which tracks Bitcoin’s historical price relative to time on a logarithmic scale. The model produces a rising support band and median trend that have broadly aligned with previous market cycles.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment, Investment 101, Bitcoin Adoption
Bitcoin power-law growth curve. Source: Bitbo.io

Using this framework, analysts estimate that by 2028, the long-term trend support may move above $100,000, forming the base assumption for future DCA modeling. Simulations from Bitcoin Well place the median price near $430,278 by March 2030.

To capture the wider range around that path, the model also considers deviation bands of the power-law channel, producing a lower projection near $274,000 and an upper expansion scenario near $900,000.

Under those assumptions, the weekly strategy accumulates about 0.30 BTC over four years.

  • At $274,000, the holdings are worth about $82,200.

  • At the $430,278 median estimate, the investment value reaches $129,000.

  • At a $900,000 BTC price, the investment is worth nearly $270,000.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Price Analysis, Cryptocurrency Investment, Investment 101, Bitcoin Adoption
DCA investment results by March 2030. Source: Bitcoin Well

A November 2025 study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With tested how the entry timing affects the long-term outcomes using similar projections. Even buying 20% above $94,000 (the price of BTC at that time) and exiting 20% below the projected 2035 median still produced nearly 300% gains on the remaining holdings after a decade.

The total savings reached 7.7 times the initial capital in the simulation.

Advertisement

The study concluded that entry timing adjusts the range of outcomes, while long holding periods drive the majority of the results.

Related: A sucker’s rally? Why Bitcoin analysts say BTC price must hold $70K