TLDR

• Nomura initiated a Buy rating on NIO with a $6.60 price objective, suggesting approximately 34% potential gains from current trading levels
• Macquarie increased its price objective to $6.50 while maintaining an Outperform stance following fourth-quarter 2025 earnings
• Fourth-quarter revenue climbed 76% annually and 59% sequentially to reach RMB34.7 billion
• Vehicle gross margin expanded to 18.1% during Q4, compared to 13.1% in the prior-year period
• NIO projected Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries between 80,000 and 83,000 units, with revenue expectations exceeding analyst estimates

The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Nio has experienced an eventful week. Following the release of impressive fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, the company secured multiple analyst upgrades and elevated price objectives from prominent Wall Street firms.

NIO Inc., NIO

The standout metric proved difficult to overlook. Fourth-quarter total revenue reached RMB34.7 billion, representing a 76% increase compared to the same quarter last year and a 59% jump from the previous quarter. Such robust expansion typically captures market attention.

Nomura made the boldest move, elevating NIO from a Neutral stance to Buy. The investment bank established a $6.60 price objective, reduced from its earlier $8.40 forecast, yet still suggesting roughly 34% upside potential from the stock’s recent trading level around $4.94.

The brokerage highlighted two consecutive quarters of operational improvements, emphasizing increased vehicle deliveries and enhanced expense management as catalysts for stronger profitability. Nomura now anticipates NIO will achieve non-GAAP operating profit breakeven during 2026.

Despite reducing delivery projections for 2026 and 2027 — acknowledging intensified competition within the EV sector — Nomura still forecasts vehicle deliveries will expand at approximately 25% compounded annual growth between 2025 and 2028. Revenue expansion is anticipated at roughly 21% during the identical timeframe.

Gross margin projections for 2026 and 2027 received upward revisions, while operating margin estimates were boosted by over 3 percentage points for both fiscal years. This represents a substantial reassessment of the company’s cost efficiency.

Enhanced Profitability Fuels Positive Analyst Sentiment

Macquarie similarly elevated its price objective, advancing to $6.50 from $6.10, while preserving its Outperform recommendation. The firm identified vehicle margin expansion as the primary narrative.

Vehicle margin reached 18.1% during Q4 2025, climbing significantly from 13.1% during the comparable quarter one year prior. The recently launched ES8 model received credit for contributing substantially to that improvement. Additional sales margin widened to 11.9% from merely 1.1% in Q4 2024.

NIO also reduced R&D expenditures through workforce optimization and intends to maintain quarterly R&D costs within the RMB2.0 billion to RMB2.5 billion range. The manufacturer generated positive operating cash flow during the quarter, which Macquarie noted reduces future capital-raising requirements.

Macquarie did reduce its fiscal 2026 volume projection by 8%, acknowledging subdued near-term demand and escalating competition within the EV SUV category from rivals including Li Auto, XPeng, Xiaomi, and Seres. However, it narrowed its 2026 net loss forecast to RMB1.8 billion from RMB4.5 billion, reflecting decreased operating costs and an improved product portfolio.

Additional Financial Institutions Provide Analysis

BofA Securities increased its price objective to $6.70 while maintaining a Neutral recommendation, observing that Q4 performance largely aligned with projections. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Overweight rating with a $7.00 price target following optimistic delivery growth commentary from NIO’s founder.

For Q1 2026, NIO provided delivery guidance of 80,000 to 83,000 vehicles. The midpoint sits approximately 8% below Bloomberg consensus figures but 2% above Macquarie’s projection. Revenue guidance ranging from RMB24.5 billion to RMB25.2 billion exceeded both Macquarie’s estimate and broader consensus expectations.

NIO has three additional mid- to large-size SUV models under development, with two variants scheduled to debut during Q2 2026.

The stock had appreciated 17.77% during the preceding week through Wednesday’s trading session, with a market capitalization standing at $14.41 billion.

Key Highlights

• Marathon Petroleum reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.07, surpassing analyst consensus of $3.01 by more than 35%
• Annual 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $12 billion
• Shareholders received $1.3 billion in Q4 distributions, contributing to $4.5 billion total for the year
• Marathon closed 2025 with $3.7 billion cash position and zero utilization of its $5 billion revolving credit line
• Wall Street analysts set price targets between $210 and $225, maintaining predominantly bullish ratings

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) delivered an exceptional fourth quarter in 2025, capturing Wall Street’s attention with results that significantly exceeded expectations. The refining giant reported adjusted earnings reaching $4.07 per diluted share, obliterating the consensus forecast of $3.01 by over 35%. Quarterly revenue totaled $33.4 billion, marginally topping analyst projections.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, MPC

Quarterly net income reached $1.5 billion, translating to $5.12 per diluted share. This represented a dramatic improvement from the $371 million recorded in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the period climbed to $3.5 billion versus $2.1 billion in Q4 2024.

The Refining & Marketing business unit emerged as the primary catalyst behind the earnings outperformance. This segment generated EBITDA of $1.997 billion while maintaining crude capacity utilization at 95%. The R&M margin expanded to $18.65 per barrel.

Operational refining costs increased to $5.70 per barrel, yet the margin growth easily absorbed this headwind. Capture rates exceeding 100% played a critical role in the quarter’s success.

The midstream operations added meaningful value, producing EBITDA of $1.7 billion. Enhanced throughput volumes and contributions from newly acquired assets drove this performance, though some asset sales provided a partial offset.

The Renewable Diesel business unit contributed $7 million in EBITDA. While not the primary growth driver, it remains a developing component of the portfolio.

Marathon concluded the year holding $3.7 billion in cash. The company maintained a pristine balance sheet with zero outstanding borrowings against its $5 billion revolving credit facility entering 2026.

Shareholder Returns Remain a Strategic Priority

The refiner distributed $1.3 billion to investors during Q4. Throughout 2025, total distributions reached $4.5 billion. Since 2017, Marathon has allocated over $45 billion toward share repurchases, meaningfully reducing outstanding shares and enhancing per-share financial metrics.

Operating cash flow for 2025 approached $8.3 billion. Management continues executing a balanced capital allocation strategy combining regular dividends with aggressive share buybacks, which forms a cornerstone of the investment thesis.

Analyst price objectives have moved upward recently. Wall Street firms have published targets of $210, $217, and $225 during February. The consensus 12-month price target across coverage sits slightly above $204, with most analysts maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings.

Shares have been changing hands near the high-$190s range, marking substantial year-to-date appreciation. The stock advanced approximately 3% on March 11 and continued extending gains throughout the week.

Favorable Market Conditions Supporting Performance

Escalating geopolitical instability across the Middle East has driven oil prices upward and improved investor sentiment toward domestic refiners. Market participants are anticipating tighter product supply-demand dynamics and more robust refining crack spreads.

Elevated crude prices present both challenges and opportunities for Marathon. While input costs increase, refining margins can expand when finished product pricing outpaces crude appreciation. Current market conditions suggest investors are betting on this favorable scenario.

Institutional ownership patterns show continued strong interest from large asset managers. Some major shareholders reduced holdings during late 2025, while others increased positions — representing normal portfolio rebalancing activity for a large-cap energy name.

For full-year 2025, Marathon recorded adjusted EBITDA approaching $12 billion, with the refining and marketing segment achieving $7.15 per barrel in Q4 compared to a $5.63 full-year average.

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2012.94, down 0.2% (-4.89) since 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Four of 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: NEAR (+2.3%) and BNB (+0.3%).

Laggards: DOT (-2.3%) and APT (-2.3%).

The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $70,000 into Thursday’s Wall Street open after US jobs data matched expectations.

Key points:

• Bitcoin shrugs off more US macro data as jobless claims copy flat CPI numbers.

• Oil stays volatile, while markets ignore almost any chance of a March interest-rate cut.

• BTC price action stays indecisive around the $70,000 mark.

Bitcoin surfs new US jobless claims release

Data from TradingView showed ongoing BTC price compression on the day, with BTC/USD acting in an increasingly narrow range.

US initial jobless claims were 213,000 for the week through March 7, just 1,000 below the previous week’s print and 2,000 below market consensus.

The numbers furthered relief over the US economy after Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release also avoided major deviations from its expected values.

Volatility, however, remained in oil, which was up by more than 5% on the day at the time of writing after initially rising above $95. News of a coordinated release of 400 million barrels from reserves to counteract the Strait of Hormuz impasse thus failed to alter the price trend.

Analyzing the situation, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter suggested that a lack of clarity from US President Donald Trump over how long the Middle East conflict would last was fueling oil’s ongoing surge.

“The reason behind this rally was largely that President Trump was not signaling how long the Iran war would last,” it wrote on X. 

“Since then, the ONLY factor that has changed is that President Trump has said the war will be over ‘pretty quickly.’ However, this also implies that military action will likely continue until at least the end of March.”

The latest inflation prints, meanwhile, did nothing to alter the market’s views of future Federal Reserve policy.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the odds of an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s March 18 meeting — a key potential crypto tailwind — at less than 1%.

BTC price breakout can take “several more weeks”

Key Bitcoin price levels remained in place as traders waited for directional cues.

Related: Bitcoin braces for oil shock and death crosses: 5 things to know this week

Trader Daan Crypto Trades flagged $72,000 and $62,000 as lines in the sand around spot price, with the Point of Control (PoC) at around $68,000.

“Anything in between will just chop you up as we have been seeing already. Ranges like these can easily take several more weeks before resolving,” he told X followers on Wednesday.

As Cointelegraph reported, consensus stayed bearish on the mid-term outlook, favoring a drop to new macro lows to come. 

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that by historical standards, Bitcoin’s bear market should continue from here.

“Time-wise, Bitcoin will soon be halfway through its Bear Market,” he summarized in one of several recent X updates.

“Retracement-wise however, Bitcoin has already performed 75% of the downside in its Bear Market correction.”