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Cardano (ADA) Poised for a 30% Rally, But Only if One Condition is Met

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ADA RSI


While some analysts think ADA could climb as high as $0.50 in the near term, certain indicators also point to the possibility of a pullback.

The cryptocurrency market has posted an evident upswing over the past several days, with Cardano’s ADA following the green wave.

Its price surged 8% on a weekly basis, while some analysts believe a more substantial pump may be in the making.

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The Necessary Condition

According to the popular market observer Ali Martinez, ADA “is setting up for a bullish breakout.” He argued that the prolonged sideways movement is nearing an end, outlining $0.304 as the upper boundary of this channel.

Martinez predicted that a breakout above this level could open the door to an increase to $0.338 and even $0.376. As of press time, Cardano’s native token trades at around $0.28 and is quite close to the depicted mark.

X user ZAYK Charts also presented an optimistic forecast. The analyst claimed that ADA has broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, suggesting this could be a precursor to a “massive bullish wave” above $0.50.

For their part, Celal Kucuker expects the cryptocurrency to experience heightened volatility and eventually skyrocket to a new all-time high of $5.67 sometime next year.

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Meanwhile, ADA remains oversold on a weekly scale with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 30. Such ratios are considered bullish and indicate that a rally could be on the horizon. On the contrary, readings above 70 signal overbought conditions and hint that a correction might be imminent.

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ADA RSIADA RSI
ADA RSI, Source: Crypto Waves

Dead Cat Bounce?

Other on-chain indicators, though, suggest that ADA could head south in the short term. Over the past few days, exchange inflows have exceeded outflows, meaning that some investors have abandoned self-custody and transferred their holdings to centralized platforms. This is typically seen as a pre-sale step.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

The recent whale behavior should also be taken into consideration. Earlier this month, large investors sold or redistributed 130 million ADA over a seven-day period, bringing their total holdings down to roughly 13.5 billion coins. A similar pattern was observed at the beginning of March, when whales moved about 230 million tokens.

When this cohort of investors unloads a substantial amount of ADA, it increases the available supply on the market, which can put downward pressure on the price. Big players often move before the crowd, so their selling spree can signal that they expect weaker conditions ahead. This kind of activity could scare smaller investors and might trigger panic selling on their part.

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Ripple to expand in Brazil with custody, payments, and brokerage services ahead of central bank approval push: Ripple

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Ripple to expand in Brazil with custody, payments, and brokerage services ahead of central bank approval push: Ripple

Ripple is adding custody, payments, and brokerage tools for digital asset management in Brazil as it prepares to seek regulatory approval from the country’s central bank.

Ripple is expanding its services in Brazil by adding custody, payments, and brokerage tools for digital asset management and tokenization. The blockchain firm plans to apply for regulatory approval from Brazil’s central bank to support these new offerings, marking a significant expansion of its presence in the Latin American market.

The move builds on Ripple’s earlier partnership with Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, which launched Ripple Payments as the first customer to utilize the firm’s managed end-to-end payments solution. This expansion reflects Ripple’s broader strategy to establish regulated operations across key markets while enabling faster and more efficient cross-border payment infrastructure.

Sources: Ripple Press

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This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.

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Poloniex and the $1.3B bitcoin question

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Poloniex and the $1.3B bitcoin question

Justin Sun-owned Poloniex has announced fee-free trading for any user who enrols in its “Poloniex Super” membership, which currently offers 30 days’ worth of fee-free “spot, margin, and futures trading.”

Poloniex has yet to announce what this membership will cost once the 30-day period has elapsed, though it does mention that “[a]fter the trial period ends, you will be automatically enrolled in the basic Super plan by default.”

This product announcement has led users to ask how Poloniex will make money without fees. Sun quickly explained that Poloniex has no need to make more money because “we already made enough from the bitcoin (BTC) we bought in 2012.”

Poloniex was founded in 2014 and therefore couldn’t possibly purchase any BTC in 2012, so presumably Sun is referring to BTC he purchased.

This statement that Poloniex can continue to operate based only on these profits brings to the forefront concerns about how Poloniex has managed the BTC in its reserves.

In 2020 Poloniex offered a new product, which it described at different times as “BTC on TRON” and “BTCTRON.”

This initial announcement described BTCTRON as “a type of wrapped BTC token that exists on the TRON blockchain.”

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Poloniex’s Help Center provides us the contract address for this token, TN3W4H6rK2ce4vX9YnFQHwKENnHjoxb3m9.

Reviewing this contract address reveals that this token currently has a circulating supply of 17,545 BTC, worth approximately $1.3 billion.

Disturbingly, Poloniex’s so-called “proof of reserves” claims that Poloniex has a balance of only 11,090 BTC in its entire reserves and 11,082 of those are “User Balance.”

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This is insufficient to reserve this tokenized BTC product.

Protos has previously repeatedly reached out to Poloniex during our past reporting on this product, and it has never been willing to provide the addresses that hold the BTC for this tokenized product.

We attempted to reach out to Poloniex again; however, it didn’t provide these addresses before publication.

Read more: FTX estate says Justin Sun still owes it millions

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Increasing the concern about this product is how deeply it has been integrated into another Sun-owned exchange, HTX.

At HTX, typically there is more of this mysterious BTCTRON product, which provides no transparency, than real BTC.

As of the most recent HTX snapshot, dated March 1, there were a total of 21,362 BTC on HTX. BTCTRON accounted for 10,291 of those.

There are also an additional 1,212 BTC that are in the form of Sun-advised Wrapped Bitcoin.

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As of March 1, there were a total of 21,362 BTC on HTX.

What this means, taken as a whole, is that Poloniex will not disclose where the $1.3 billion in BTC that is supposed to collateralize this product is located.

Yet despite that fact, HTX is willing to make it a massive portion of its reserves, all while Sun claims that Poloniex can afford to offer “fee-free” trading because of the appreciation in the price of bitcoin.

Perhaps instead of making grandiose claims about the value of his BTC, Sun should instead work on solving the apparent BTC shortfall at the exchanges he owns.

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SEC will Consider most Crypto Assets not Securities under Federal Law

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Cryptocurrencies, Law, Security, SEC, United States

In one of its first actions since signing a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said it would interpret how “non-security crypto assets” fall under federal securities laws.

In a Tuesday notice, the SEC said its interpretation of how to address crypto assets would serve as an “important bridge” as lawmakers in the US Congress consider market structure legislation which will codify how financial regulators oversee digital assets. 

The commission said the interpretation would provide a “coherent token taxonomy for digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities,” address how a “non-security crypto asset” may or may not be considered an investment contract under the SEC’s purview, and clarify federal securities laws on “airdrops, protocol mining, protocol staking, and the wrapping of a non-security crypto asset.”

“This is what regulatory agencies are supposed to do: draw clear lines in clear terms,” said SEC Chair Paul Atkins. “It also acknowledges what the former administration refused to recognize -– that most crypto assets are not themselves securities. And it reflects the reality that investment contracts can come to an end.”

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Cryptocurrencies, Law, Security, SEC, United States
Source: SEC on X

According to Atkins’ prepared remarks for the DC Blockchain Summit on Tuesday, “only one crypto asset class remains subject to the securities laws” under the interpretation, and those were “traditional securities that are tokenized.” The commission called on market participants to review the interpretation to “better understand the regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC” on cryptocurrencies. 

Related: SEC, CFTC sign memo to regulate crypto, other markets in harmony

The SEC notice came as lawmakers in the US Senate continue to negotiate terms under which they may reach an agreement on a digital asset market structure bill. The legislation is expected to give the CFTC more authority in overseeing cryptocurrencies.

Shakeup in SEC enforcement leadership draws criticism

On Monday, the SEC announced that its enforcement division director, Margaret Ryan, resigned from the agency. Its principal deputy director, Sam Waldon, was named as acting enforcement director.

In response to Ryan’s departure, former SEC official John Reed Stark said “not a single person on this planet” believed the commission’s claims that the enforcement director prioritized investor protection and “renewed focus on holding individual wrongdoers accountable” at the agency.

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“The SEC has abandoned its identity,” said Stark on Monday. “It has transformed from the cop on Wall Street’s beat into something far more troubling, a regulatory body that functions less like a law enforcement agency and more like a concierge service for the largest financial players in the country.”

A 19-year veteran of the regulator, Stark was founder and chief of the SEC’s Office of Internet Enforcement, according to his LinkedIn profile.

Atkins, along with SEC Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce — all Republicans — remain the only three leaders at the agency on a panel intended to consist of a bipartisan group of five members. As of Tuesday, US President Donald Trump had not announced any plans to nominate other commissioners to the SEC or CFTC, which had only one Senate-confirmed member.

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Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns