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Cardano (ADA) price signal that once preceded a 300% rally is back

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(Santiment/CoinDesk)

The average Cardano holder who bought in the past year is down 43%. The derivatives market is betting it gets worse. But both of those things happening at once have historically meant the opposite.

Santiment data shows ADA’s 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to -43%, meaning wallets that have been active on the Cardano network over the past year are sitting on an average loss of 43% on their positions.

The metric is deep in what Santiment labels the “opportunity zone,” a band that previous instances in 2023 and late 2024 preceded recoveries as the MVRV mean-reverts toward zero.

(Santiment/CoinDesk)

MVRV measures average trading returns across a given timeframe, and it always gravitates back toward zero over time. When it’s extremely negative, the holders most likely to panic-sell have already sold. The remaining supply sits in hands that are either committed to holding or have already accepted the loss. That’s the kind of positioning that reduces further selling pressure and sets up the conditions for a bounce when any catalyst arrives.

At the same time, Binance’s weekly average funding rate for ADA has turned to its most negative reading since June 2023. Funding rates reflect the balance between long and short positioning in perpetual futures. A deeply negative rate means shorts are dominant and paying longs to keep their positions open. In simpler terms, the derivatives market is crowded on the bearish side.

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That crowding is what makes it a contrarian signal. When shorts are this concentrated, any positive price movement triggers liquidations that force short sellers to buy back their positions, which pushes the price higher, which triggers more liquidations.

The cascade works in reverse too, but the historical pattern on ADA shows that funding rate extremes of this magnitude have preceded short squeezes more often than they’ve preceded further declines.

The last time both signals aligned this clearly was mid-2023, when ADA was trading around $0.25 before rallying roughly 300% over the following 18 months. That doesn’t mean the same outcome is guaranteed, however, as ADA is down 71% since its September peak, the broader market is dealing with a war, sticky inflation, and no rate cuts in sight, and Cardano’s ecosystem metrics haven’t produced the kind of usage growth that would justify a fundamental repricing.

But bottom signals aren’t about fundamentals. They’re about positioning. And the positioning on Cardano right now, with average holders at -43% returns and shorts at a three-year high, is the kind of setup where the next move catches the majority off guard.

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ADA was trading at $0.26 on Tuesday, down roughly 7% on the week.

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Can Ethereum price rally past $2,400 as bullish metrics emerge?

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Ethereum balance on exchanges has dropped to an all-time low.

Ethereum price has formed a strong support at $2,100 as whales continue accumulating the asset. Now, a bullish pattern on charts hints at more potential upside over the coming sessions.

Summary

  • Ethereum held firm above the $2,100 support as whales accumulated over 750,000 ETH in the past 48 hours, signaling sustained buying interest.
  • The asset rebounded more than 3% as improved risk sentiment followed U.S.-led ceasefire efforts, with crude oil prices slipping below $90.
  • A cup and handle pattern has formed on the daily chart, with a breakout above $2,384 potentially opening the path toward the $3,000 level.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum bulls managed to fend off a drop below the 100 support amidst some market correction on Sunday, arising from broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

The largest altcoin subsequently rallied over 3% to $2,170 as investor risk sentiment improved after the U.S. attempted to negotiate a temporary ceasefire with Iran through diplomatic channels, which saw crude oil slide back under $90.

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Ethereum (ETH) price rebounded amid whale accumulation, which often sparks retail FOMO, who follow the smart money. Data from Santiment shows that whale wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH bought over 750,000 ETH over the past 48 hours.

It also follows as Ethereum treasury company Bitmine continues to aggressively purchase more ETH as it nears its goal of owning at least 5% of the ETH supply, as earlier reported by crypto.news.

Another potential catalyst is the supply crunch. Notably, Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to an all-time low of nearly 15 million. Depleting exchange reserves means investors could be moving assets to cold storage or staking them to earn passive rewards. Investors often see this as an incredibly bullish signal.

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Ethereum balance on exchanges has dropped to an all-time low.
Ethereum balance on exchanges has dropped to an all-time low | Source: CryptoQuant

The Ethereum Foundation, the non-profit dedicated to the ecosystem, is also working to mitigate threats posed by quantum computing. Reports indicate that the new roadmap aims to transition the network to quantum-safe cryptography for centuries of security.

On the daily chart, Ethereum price has formed a giant cup and handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis. A break above the neckline of the pattern confirms the setup, usually resulting in sustained upside over the following sessions.

Ethereum price has formed a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart.
Ethereum price has formed a cup and handle pattern on the daily chart — March 25 | Source: crypto.news

In Ethereum’s case, the neckline of the pattern lies at $2,384. If bulls manage to breach through this level, ETH price could swing above $2,400 and much higher towards the psychological $3,000 mark as the measured move targets become active.

Technical indicators seem to suggest bulls still have plenty of gas in the tank. The Supertrend indicator has flashed green, a sign that the prevailing momentum has shifted in favor of the buyers, while the RSI has rebounded from neutral territory to suggest that there is still significant room for growth before the asset becomes overbought.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto giant debuts WTI trading, but it’s a different model to Hyperliquid’s perps

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Crypto giant debuts WTI trading, but it's a different model to Hyperliquid's perps

The Iran war has set oil on fire and crypto exchanges are racing to offer 24/7 trading to fill tradfi gaps, with most copying decentralized giant Hyperliquid’s perpetual-futures play.

Crypto market-making giant Wintermute is taking a different approach. On Tuesday, its derivatives unit, Wintermute Asia, launched over-the-counter (OTC) trading in WTI crude oil contracts for difference (CFDs).

CFD is type of derivative that allows traders to speculate on the price movement of an asset without owning it. Similar to futures, CFDs track the asset’s price, but the key difference is that only the difference between the opening and closing prices is exchanged between the trader and the broker when the contract is closed.

These are typically traded over-the-counter and can be tailored in term sof size, duration and margin requirements. This bespoke flexibility allows professional traders and institutions to design strategies that match specific risk-return objectives, rather than conforming to one-size-fits-all derivatives such as Hyperliquid’s oil perpetual futures.

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Wintermute’s CFD launch comes amid weeks of intense geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S.–Israel coalition have left traders in a bind over weekends when traditional finance markets are closed, limiting their ability to adjust positions or manage risk effectively. This led to outsized trading activity on Hyperliquid’s energy market perpetuals and prompted WIntermute to offer CFDs.

“We are seeing strong demand from counterparties looking to use digital asset infrastructure to trade traditional products like oil. The recent price action made that need much more immediate, as many investors were unable to act until traditional venues reopened,” said Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of Wintermute.

“A Wintermute counterparty could have traded the weekend move before the Monday gap or responded immediately to the reversal,” Gaevoy added.

Note that Wintermute is a counterparty in the CFD. Traders aren’t matched with each other; they are trading directly against Wintermute, which is taking on the market risk. The firm is, therefore, leveraging its risk management systems and deep liquidity to monetize demand for 24/7 crude than simply supplying liquidity to perpetual futures.

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Traders can access WTI CFDs with zero trading fees, using a variety of fiat and crypto assets as margin, the official announcement said. Contracts can be executed via chat, Wintermute’s electronic OTC platform, or API. The rollout builds on the recent introduction of tokenized gold, further broadening Wintermute Asia’s suite of offerings beyond purely digital assets.

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Enlivex Raises Funds for Rain Prediction Market Token Buys

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Enlivex Raises Funds for Rain Prediction Market Token Buys

Immunotherapy company Enlivex has raised $21 million via a debt financing agreement to purchase another 3 billion tokens tied to the prediction market platform Rain.

Enlivex said on Tuesday it exercised an option to acquire another 3 billion Rain (RAIN) tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million on Sunday while extending its option to purchase another 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price to December 2027. The debt financing came from The Lind Partners, a New York-based asset manager.

“We are continuing to execute our prediction markets treasury strategy, and we are pleased that Lind provided us with substantial capital, allowing us to continue the execution of our operating plan, as well as to acquire approximately three billion additional RAIN tokens,” said Enlivex executive chair Shai Novik.

Enlivex develops cell therapy solutions for knee osteoarthritis, but is one of several non-crypto companies that have purchased cryptocurrencies in the hopes that it will strengthen their balance sheets and attract a wider base of investors.

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The company also said it approved a $20 million share buyback program, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

Details of Enlivex’s debt financing announcement. Source: Enlivex

The value of Enlivex’s RAIN treasury is directly tied to Rain’s decentralized prediction market platform, which has a built-in 2.5% fee that automatically buys back and burns RAIN tokens in a bid to boost the token’s supply-demand dynamics.

RAIN token, Envilex shares trade mostly flat

The Rain token rose 7% to $0.009 after Enlivex’s announcement before falling slightly to $0.0088, trading flat over the last 24 hours with a 0.3% gain, according to CoinGecko. 

Shares in Enlivex (ENVL) also traded mostly flat on Tuesday and closed the trading day down 0.9% to $1.10, but gained 4.5% in after-hours trading, rising to $1.15.

Related: Kalshi, Polymarket eye $20B valuations in potential fundraising: WSJ

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Rain runs on the Ethereum Layer-2 Arbitrum network and ranks among the top 10 prediction market platforms by total value locked and fees over the past seven days, DeFiLlama data shows.