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CFTC’s Selig offers prediction markets a deal they might hate to accept

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CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is trying to drag prediction markets and crypto out of the legal grey zone by scrapping a de facto ban and replacing it with a derivatives‑style rulebook the agency, not the states, will control.

Summary

  • Selig withdrew the 2024 event‑contracts ban proposal and a 2025 staff advisory, ordering a new rulebook meant to “support the responsible development” of event markets.
  • The CFTC is asserting “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and moving to back a registered exchange against Nevada’s gambling rules, setting up a federal–state pre‑emption fight.
  • Through Project Crypto with the SEC, Selig wants unified crypto rules, a shared token taxonomy and onshored perps and tokenized assets, in return for tighter surveillance and insider‑trading enforcement.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is trying to drag prediction markets and crypto out of a legal grey zone and into a federal framework that looks more like traditional derivatives – while fighting off states and gamblers at the same time.

According to a new report in CoinDesk, “Selig reiterated the CFTC will issue guidance to clarify how prediction markets, known as event contracts in regulation, can list and trade products under U.S. law and will launch a rulemaking process seeking public input on how the fast-growing sector should be overseen.”

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Event contracts: from ban threat to rulebook

In his first major policy speech on January 29, 2026, Selig said the CFTC will scrap a 2024 proposal that would have effectively banned sports‑ and politics‑related event contracts and withdraw a 2025 staff advisory that warned platforms off sports markets, admitting the advisory had “inadvertently added to the uncertainty present in our markets.” Instead, he ordered staff to draft a new “event contracts rulemaking” to “establish clear standards for event contracts that provide certainty to market participants” and “support the responsible development of event contract markets,” which the CFTC views as tools to hedge risk and aggregate information, not just wagers.

At the same time, Selig is asserting turf. In speeches, an Axios interview and an AP‑covered Wall Street Journal op‑ed, he has argued that prediction markets fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over them, vowing the agency “will no longer remain passive while overly aggressive governments undermine [its] jurisdiction… by attempting to impose statewide bans on these innovative products.” The commission has already asked the Ninth Circuit for permission to file an amicus brief backing a CFTC‑registered exchange in its fight against Nevada’s attempt to regulate event contracts as gambling, setting up an eventual pre‑emption clash that could go as high as the Supreme Court.

Insider trading, surveillance and Project Crypto

Selig’s stance is not a free pass. He has repeatedly framed exchanges as the “first line of defense” against insider trading, and law‑firm summaries of his agenda stress that prediction platforms should upgrade compliance, particularly around the “permissible use of material non‑public information.” The Department of Justice is already circling: the U.S. Attorney for SDNY has publicly warned that “placing a bet through a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud,” citing cases where bettors used inside information about a basketball player’s availability to rig prop bets – the same logic that could apply to political, policy or war‑related markets.

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Crypto is woven into this. In the same speech, Selig announced “Project Crypto,” a formal coordination with the SEC intended to deliver “clear, durable rules of the road” for digital‑asset markets, including joint work on a crypto‑asset taxonomy and expanded eligibility for tokenized collateral. He also said he wants to “onshore perpetual and other novel derivative products so that they can flourish… subject to appropriate safeguards,” signalling that the CFTC is willing to own perps, tokenized stocks and prediction markets – as long as they move inside its regulatory perimeter.

Put bluntly: Selig is offering crypto and prediction markets a deal. The CFTC will fight states that want to treat everything as gambling and will abandon blanket bans on sports and political contracts – but in exchange, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi must accept heavy surveillance, insider‑trading enforcement and a derivatives‑style rulebook rather than the degen free‑for‑all that built the first wave of volume.

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Crypto World

Ethereum’s on fire with record activity, but ether price and blockchain fees lag

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(DeFiLlama)

Ethereum’s network activity has surged to all-time highs across multiple metrics, but the growth has failed to lift ether’s price or boost fee generation at the base layer.

A weekly report from analytics firm CryptoQuant published March 10 found that daily active addresses on Ethereum approached 2 million in February 2026, exceeding peaks seen during the 2021 bull market. Active addresses are unique blockchain wallet addresses that have sent or received a transaction within a specific timeframe, like the past 24 hours

Smart contract calls, or codes on blockchain telling it to do something specific, topped 40 million per day, and token transfers driven by internal contract interactions also set records. The findings point to broad adoption across DeFi, stablecoins and automated protocol activity, even as investment demand for ether has weakened.

Record network user activity typically bodes well for the market value of the blockchain’ native token. But that’s not the case with Ethereum.

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It’s native token ether is down roughly 30% over the last six months, and the one-year change in Ethereum’s realized capitalization has turned negative, indicating net capital outflows from the market.

Exchange flow data from CryptoQuant shows ether moving to trading venues at a faster rate relative to bitcoin, a pattern consistent with elevated selling pressure.

Focus on capital flows

CryptoQuant argued that capital flows, rather than network activity, now explain ETH price dynamics more effectively.

In prior cycles, particularly 2018 and 2021, rising on-chain activity coincided with price rallies. That relationship has weakened. The firm’s scatter analysis showed recent observations clustering at high activity levels but relatively low prices, suggesting incremental usage growth now has less explanatory power for ether’s valuation.

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The fee picture reinforces the disconnect. Data from DefiLlama shows Ethereum generated roughly $10.3 million in transaction fees over the past 30 days, placing it third behind Tron at nearly $25 million and Solana at about $20 million.

(DeFiLlama)

On a revenue basis, the gap widens further. Ethereum ranked fifth in 30-day protocol revenue at $1.22 million, trailing Tron as well as Polygon, Base and Solana. Base, an Ethereum layer-2 network built by Coinbase, generated roughly three times Ethereum’s protocol revenue over the same period.

(DeFiLlama)

The disparity reflects the growing role of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem. Networks such as Base and Polygon process large volumes of transactions while paying relatively small settlement costs back to the base chain, distributing economic activity across the broader Ethereum ecosystem rather than concentrating it on the base layer.

Stablecoins remain a bright spot for adoption. Ethereum hosts approximately $162 billion in stablecoin supply, roughly 52% of the global market, according to DefiLlama. Yet that activity has not translated into proportional value capture for ether itself.

Ethereum may be busier than ever, but the blockchain’s native asset is capturing less of the value created on top of it.

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Crypto World

Strategy Posts Record STRC Sales After ATM Rule Change

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Strategy Posts Record STRC Sales After ATM Rule Change

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public holder of Bitcoin, sold a record amount of its perpetual preferred equity, Stretch (STRC), after amending its sales rules on Monday.

Strategy is estimated to have bought 1,420 Bitcoin (BTC) in a single day after selling roughly 2.4 million STRC shares through its at-the-market (ATM) program, according to data from STRC.live. The amount marks the largest estimated daily issuance of STRC and BTC purchases, surpassing the previous record of 1,069 BTC, according to a Monday X post from STRC.live.

Strategy announced a major rule change to its at-the-market (ATM) share sales program on Monday, allowing a second agent to sell the securities before the US market opens and after it closes, easing a prior restriction limiting such sales to one agent per trading day.

STRC sales versus estimated Bitcoin purchases by Strategy. Source: STRC Live

STRC is one of the major pillars of Strategy’s Bitcoin buying

STRC is Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock, launched in July 2025 as one of several securities the company uses to help fund its Bitcoin treasury strategy, alongside other ATM programs such as Stride (STRD), Strife (STRF), Strike (STRK) and common stock (MSTR). Strategy says the stock pays monthly variable cash dividends, with the annualized rate for March set at 11.5%.

Strategy’s Stretch (STRC) details. Source: Strategy

Some market observers said the updated sales structure could make it easier for Strategy to issue stock more efficiently during premarket and after-hours trading, potentially accelerating future capital raises tied to Bitcoin purchases.

“A lot more capital will be raised, and a lot more Bitcoin will be purchased,” market observer Ragnar said.

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Source: BitcoinQuant

According to STRC.live, last week’s estimate suggested STRC proceeds would fund a weekly purchase of approximately 4,300 BTC ($303 million). However, the actual purchase exceeded expectations, as Strategy reported selling around $378 million in STRC in its filing with the SEC on Monday.

Related: Oil tumbles, crypto gains as Trump sends mixed signals over Iran war

Source: SEC

The company reported a massive $1.3 billion BTC purchase, marking one of its largest Bitcoin acquisitions on record. Common stock MSTR accounted for the largest proceeds in reported sales, generating nearly $900 million in proceeds.

The results for STRC underscore ongoing rapid acceleration in investor interest, despite the Bitcoin price trading below Strategy’s reported average cost basis of $75,862.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen