Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June with damage control — and new macro lows are still expected this year.

• Traders see a relief bounce coming next for BTC price action, but the bottom, they agree, is not in.
• US inflation data will test markets’ resolve as the US-Iran war drags on.
• Peace-deal pledges by US President Donald Trump do little to stabilize the risk-asset picture.
• Multiple onchain indicators give analysts hope that the worst of the sell-off is over.
• Crypto sentiment dives to some of its lowest levels on record.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom is months away

Bitcoin saw modest relief around its latest weekly close, data from TradingView shows, but among traders, the lack of major good news is conspicuous.

“Previous weekly candle closed very bearish, and left an imbalance at 72.5K. As long as we hold the 59.1K previous weekly low, my final long target for this week is that 72.5K imbalance,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in one of his latest analysis posts on X.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

Trader Mark Cullen warned that even in the event of a relief bounce, the bear-market low was still to come.

“Now $BTC has swept the 60K level, which happened a bit quicker than i had originally anticipated,” he told X followers. 

“I expect we have a bit more sideways and up for the rest of June. I am not expecting the ultimate market low until middle to late Q3.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

With slightly different timing, crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto had similar expectations. BTC/USD, he noted, had closed below a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

“Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4,” he argued.

ColinTalksCrypto said that Q4 “has high odds of being the cycle bottom.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CPI and PPI inflation to challenge multiyear highs

May US inflation data will add fuel to market nerves this week, with markets already betting on interest-rate hikes.

The May prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are slated to reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on the economy.

Both indexes hit multiyear highs when last updated for April, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of Federal Reserve policy changing quickly.

“The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027. There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in analysis late last week. 

“Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

As Cointelegraph reported, US stock markets have broadly shaken off inflation risks, hitting repeated all-time highs as tech stocks drive optimism.

That picture is also looking less stable this week as rate-hike nerves filter through. South Korea’s stock market was halted for volatility on Monday after falling 8% at the open.

Korea Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Something just shifted in the world’s hottest stock market,” Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto platform Coin Bureau, commented on Sunday. 

“Koreans stocks are up 90% this year. But the options chart on the Korea ETF has flipped from bullish bets to downside protection. The is a sign that those still in the trade are no longer confident.”

Market data for iShares South Korea ETF. Source: Nic Puckrin/X

Iran war peace promises fail to tame markets

Coming in tandem with macro pressure are developments in the US-Iran war, which remains an unpredictable market volatility catalyst.

Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the conflict would “work out well,” but the assurances failed to stop new multiyear lows for BTC/USD.

Exchanges of fire in the interim meant that the sense of uncertainty continued.

Quoted by the Financial Times and others on Sunday, Trump again sought to put a positive slant on events, saying that the latest strikes would not impact ongoing peace negotiations.

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” he said in a telephone interview.

Bitcoin appeared buoyed by Trump’s words, which included an assertion that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept an Iran deal.

Oil prices gained into the new week, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel. 

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that the new week would start with a bump.

“I would expect to see prices drop slightly lower going into the Monday open, as the stock markets were falling off a cliff on Friday evening,” he told X followers. 

“After US open, or on Tuesday, this rotates back up and we’ll start to see a glimpse of upwards momentum on Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Indicators point to easing sell pressure

In Bitcoin circles, talk continues to focus on whether BTC has seen its bear-market bottom with the latest dip below $60,000.

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on an analysis concluding that most prerequisites for a market rebound were already in place.

In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant added to the list of reasons why the worst of the rout should be over.

“Together, these indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system,” contributor XWIN Japan wrote in a QuickTake blog post. 

“Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution, and investors are entering a period of patience and accumulation.”

The three indicators in question are the spent out profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) investors, along with the overall BTC supply held at a loss, as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The latter is already on the radar for traders after BTC/USD returned to it for the first time since 2023 last week.

“The LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR ratio has fallen significantly, indicating that long-term holders are no longer realizing the large profits seen during the previous bull market,” XWIN continued about the other components. 

“Supply in Profit has dropped to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin holders are now at break-even or in a loss position. This is a sharp contrast to bull market conditions, when over 90% of supply is often in profit.”

Bitcoin supply in profit (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant also flagged a “demand shortage” thanks to tech stocks stealing the limelight from crypto as a whole.

Sentiment reflects “widespread despair” opportunity

Crypto market sentiment has returned to single figures, per data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index — but a buying opportunity could be already here.

Related: Bitcoin risks new purge with bear-market losses still $35B below 2022 total

The Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine the overall market mood, measured 8/100 on Monday — well within its “extreme fear” zone.

Such a low score was last seen at the start of April, and is one of the lowest ever recorded.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Monitoring social media cues, research platform Santiment described the “highest level of pessimism since mid-February.” 

“Historically, these moments of widespread despair have often appeared close to market bottoms,” it told X followers. 

“When traders begin declaring an asset class ‘dead,’ especially something largely speculative-driven like crypto, it typically signals that many sellers have already exited their positions, leaving less supply available to push prices significantly lower.”

Crypto sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X

In February, when the $60,000 zone first came back into focus, a collapse in sentiment preceded a rebound to the mid-$70,000 range.

“While sentiment alone cannot predict exact turning points, historical patterns indicate that periods when investors are most convinced that crypto is ‘finished’ have frequently provided safer-than-average opportunities for patient traders willing to take the opposite side of the crowd’s emotions,” Santiment added.

Bybit, the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has joined the tokenization race to capture the highly-anticipated public listing of SpaceX later this week with its new Bybit IPO Express service.

The Dubai-based exchange is the second crypto exchange to offer tokenized initial public offerings (IPO) following Kraken. Its parent company Payward said it would soon allow its Kraken customers and xStocks alliance members to participate in U.S.-listed IPOs through tokenized shares.

Binance, Bitget and Gate previously offered pre-IPO markets in the form of derivatives. That means investors are not actually buying the actual shares.price. Instead, they are betting on a prediction market or trading IOUs based on what they believed the company would be worth.

Bybit’sIPO services are powered by Payward Services’ xStocks and are eligible retail investors worldwide who can participate in blockbuster IPO projects by subscribing to tokenized representations of publicly traded equities.

“The launch marks a fundamental step in the convergence of traditional capital markets and crypto-native infrastructure, as exchanges increasingly compete to expand beyond digital asset trading into broader financial services,” Bybit said in its press release.

The aim of such services is democratize access millions of users to participate in IPOs that were previously only available to institutional investors, private banking clients, and select brokerage networks.

Bybit also said that through xStocks’ regulated blockchain, holders of tokenized listed stocks can access extended trading hours, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) composability and flexibility and crypto-native settlement.

“For Bybit customers, it is the first time cryptocurrency exchange users can purchase shares at IPO pricing outside of the competitive secondary market,” the press release added.

Bybit said the registration period for the SpaceX IPO is from June 7 to 11. Allocation follows on June 11 and 12, the day when the token also becomes publicly available for trading on Bybit spot. Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans a $75 billion IPO on June 12 at a $1.75 trillion valuation, ranking it among the largest ever.

Strategy (MSTR) acquired 1,550 bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC, according to a Monday announcement from Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.

The purchase comes after bitcoin fell around 15% last week, briefly trading below $60,000 before rebounding above $62,000. The decline in bitcoin price followed, at least partially, after Saylor sold 32 bitcoin on June 1.

The latest acquisition marks the first buy since the company’s bitcoin sale and expands Strategy’s reserve while also adding to its balance sheet liquidity.

The company disclosed that it increased its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million, bringing total cash reserves to $1 billion. To fund both initiatives, Strategy issued $181 million of common stock during the period.

The latest purchase was made at an average price of $65,332 per bitcoin, below Strategy’s overall average acquisition price of $75,680. Following the purchase, the company holds 845,256 BTC acquired for just under $64 billion.

Read more: Michael Saylor revives bitcoin-buy speculation as scrutiny over Strategy grows

After a massive selloff last week, one of bitcoin’s BTC$62,945.93 closely watched onchain metrics is approaching a threshold that has historically marked bear market bottoms.

The metric is called the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) Z-Score. Every major bitcoin cycle bottom has coincided with the Z-Score touching or briefly dipping below zero (into the green zone, in the chart).

And right now, it is knocking on the door of the zone that has coincided with the lowest point of previous bear markets. It happened in 2011-2012 when bitcoin saw its first major crash. It happened again in 2014 and late 2018. Most recently, it fell below zero in the second half of 2022, marking a price bottom that paved the way for a three-year bull run.

What is the MVRV Z-Score

The metric compares the deviation of bitcoin’s market value – what the token is worth right now based on the current market price – from it’s realized price.

The second figure, widely considered close to fair value, is obtained by averaging the prices of every bitcoin since the last time it was transacted onchain.

When the market price is far above fair value, bitcoin is considered expensive relative to its own history. When the market price falls toward or below the fair value, bitcoin is cheap. The Z-Score takes the difference between those two numbers and measures how extreme it is statistically.

The result is a single line that cuts through the noise of day-to-day price action and shows where the price is relative to the broader market cycle. A high Z-Score means the market is running hot, and a low or below-zero score means the opposite.

According to BitBo, the Z-Score is currently at 0.24, just above the upper boundary of the historically significant “green zone,” which begins at approximately 0 and extends slightly below zero.

In other words, it’s very close to the “accumulation” zone. To be clear, this is not a price level, but only a measure of how stretched or compressed bitcoin’s market value is relative to its realized value.

Absolute bottom?

However, the bottom might not be in just yet, as the behavior of wallet holders suggests there might still be a bit more selling needed for it to be truly in.

Onchain data suggests that Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV), which measures the profitability of coins held for at least 155 days, and Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV), which focuses on coins held for less than 155 days, haven’t converged yet.

When these two data points close the gap, historically, a major cycle low forms. This was previously seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

However, currently, STH-MVRV stands at 0.84, while LTH-MVRV remains elevated at 1.29. Meaning long-term holders are still sitting on relatively large unrealized profits, indicating that further downside in bitcoin may be required before a typical bear market bottom is established.

While it is impossible to time market bottoms, after the brutal selling last week that wiped hundreds of billions off crypto’s market value, conditions that have historically preceded recoveries are beginning to emerge.

Read more: Bitcoin, ether eye worst weekly rout since FTX collapse as cryptos shed $390 billion

Strive (ASST) picked up another 32 bitcoin for roughly $2.1 million at an average of $63,911, CEO Matt Cole disclosed Monday.

That is the exact number Strategy (MSTR) sold last week, its first bitcoin sale in four years, at an average of $77,135 to help fund preferred-stock dividends.

The buy adds to the 19,000 BTC the Dallas firm reported on June 2, a position built with no debt and run through its ASST and SATA at-the-market programs.

Bitcoin trades near $63,400, up about 1.3% over the past 24 hours and steadily climbing back from the slide that followed Strategy’s sale, per CoinDesk data.

Key Takeaways

• Eli Lilly shares climbed over 4% during early Monday session following weekend disclosure of promising clinical trial results.
• The company’s investigational obesity medication retatrutide demonstrated a 60.6% reduction in sleep apnea severity and up to 73.1% decrease in knee pain during Phase 3 studies.
• Foundayo, Lilly’s oral treatment, produced weight reduction outcomes in women throughout all menopause phases, supported by findings from 1,500 study subjects.
• Novo Nordisk announced Wegovy surpassed 3 million prescriptions since January rollout — yet shares dropped 3% in early European markets.
• Over the last twelve months, Eli Lilly shares have gained 47% while Novo Nordisk has declined over 40%.

Eli Lilly dominated the weekend news cycle with pharmaceutical updates. The pharmaceutical giant released a series of encouraging clinical trial findings throughout Saturday and Sunday, prompting an immediate market reaction Monday morning — LLY shares surged more than 4% before the opening bell, securing its position as the S&P 500’s second-strongest performer trailing only Micron.

Eli Lilly and Company, LLY

The spotlight focused primarily on retatrutide, Lilly’s investigational next-wave obesity treatment. Phase 3 clinical trial data unveiled at the American Diabetes Association gathering in New Orleans demonstrated that the once-weekly injection achieved a 60.6% reduction in moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea severity among obese adults.

The identical clinical study revealed retatrutide delivered up to 73.1% reduction in knee osteoarthritis discomfort.

These findings complement previously disclosed data where patients living with obesity achieved 28% body weight reduction using the medication, and adults managing type 2 diabetes experienced significant blood glucose improvements.

Retatrutide represents Lilly’s “triple G” therapeutic approach — it activates GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors simultaneously, advancing beyond current dual-mechanism medications like Zepbound, which already holds approval for sleep apnea treatment.

Among the studies, 2% of diabetic patients receiving the minimum dosage experienced major adverse cardiovascular events. Lilly emphasized these incidents weren’t definitively attributed to the medication. Complete findings appeared in the Lancet on Saturday.

Foundayo Broadens Treatment Scope

The weekend wasn’t finished yet. Sunday brought additional updates when Lilly unveiled analysis demonstrating its oral medication Foundayo produced weight loss across women at all menopause stages. The data emerged from 1,500 female participants enrolled in the company’s ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 Phase 3 clinical studies.

This represents a substantial broadening of the medication’s addressable population, encompassing pre-menopausal, perimenopausal, and post-menopausal women.

Novo’s Positive Update Met With Market Indifference

Novo Nordisk delivered favorable news Monday as well. The Copenhagen-based pharmaceutical company announced its oral Wegovy obesity treatment has surpassed 3 million prescriptions since its pill formulation launched in early January — representing one new prescription approximately every five seconds.

Novo characterized it as among the most successful U.S. pharmaceutical product introductions on record.

Yet investors remained unimpressed. Novo shares declined 3% during early European trading hours, with American depositary receipts indicating a 1.8% drop ahead of U.S. market open. Denmark’s stock exchange was shuttered Friday, meaning Monday’s movement partly reflected catch-up trading.

Novo’s equity has endured a challenging period, tumbling more than 40% throughout the past year. Lilly, conversely, has advanced 47% during the identical timeframe.

LLY traded approximately 4% higher Monday morning as the newest data wave continued strengthening its competitive standing in the obesity treatment landscape.

Zcash developers are lining up a new shielded-pool upgrade, Ironwood, in response to a patched bug that raised concerns about the potential creation of counterfeit ZEC without detection. The upgrade would embed formal verification and independent audits into the Orchard privacy protocol, while changing how funds move between pools to provide a clearer accounting trail.

The Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) said it is coordinating with Tachyon, Valar Group, the Zcash Foundation and Shielded Labs on the plan. Under Ironwood, the Orchard pool would be closed to new deposits and internal transactions would be halted, with funds required to pass through a “turnstile”—an accounting checkpoint—before entering Ironwood.

The Zcash Foundation disclosed that auditors had identified a vulnerability in Orchard. Importantly, developers noted there is no evidence that user funds were affected or that ZEC’s total supply changed. Shielded Labs described the flaw as potentially allowing an attacker to mint an unlimited amount of counterfeit ZEC within Orchard, had it been exploited.

In the proposed design, Ironwood would not depend on proving retroactively whether the bug was exploited; rather, it would provide a mechanism to determine if counterfeit ZEC could have escaped the old pool. Shielded Labs explained that if users migrate to Ironwood and no excess ZEC leaves the original Orchard pool, that would be strong evidence the vulnerability was never exploited. Conversely, if excess ZEC attempts to depart the old pool, the turnstile would prevent it, effectively blocking counterfeit coins from entering the supply.

According to ZODL, activation of Ironwood is targeted for late July 2026, pending thorough testing, review, and coordination across the Zcash ecosystem. The upgrade represents a broader attempt to bolster confidence in shielded transactions at a moment when the community is balancing privacy with robust security guarantees.

Meanwhile, market context remains in flux. ZEC traded around $429 at the time of reporting, after dipping from above $600 in the wake of the vulnerability disclosure. CoinGecko tracks that swing, underscoring how security concerns can quickly influence sentiment even as protocol-level mitigations are pursued. CoinGecko data reflect the volatility surrounding Orchard’s patch and the ensuing upgrade discussions. A related piece exploring the market impact of the Orchard bug noted a pronounced decline in ZEC before and after the patch.

In public discussions on X, Shielded Labs noted Ironwood’s potential to shed light on whether the Orchard vulnerability was exploited, while stressing the upgrade’s design does not hinge on retroactive proof. Some community members have debated whether post-mortem proof could imply backdoors or obligations, while others argued that deprecating Orchard and mandating a turnstile would trap any excess coins regardless of exploitation history.

Ripple’s former chief technology officer, David Schwartz, contributed to the conversation by suggesting that if there were no exploits, users would be safe regardless of their migration choices. He emphasized that those who stay in the old pool would remain safe and have continued access to their funds, even if the long-term path for Orchard is shifting toward Ironwood.

What Ironwood changes mean for users and builders

Ironwood represents more than a single upgrade; it signals a shift toward formal verification and third-party audits as a core component of shielded protocol security. By introducing an explicit called-out checkpoint—the turnstile—Zcash aims to reduce ambiguity around the flow of funds between pools and to provide a clearer signal about the integrity of the system as a whole.

For users, the key question is whether to migrate to Ironwood or stay in Orchard during the transition. If Ironwood activation goes ahead and no counterfeit ZEC leaves the Orchard pool, it would indicate a low likelihood of exploitation. If, however, the turnstile blocks abnormal withdrawals, that would confirm the mechanism’s effectiveness at preventing counterfeit coins from affecting supply. Either outcome would refine risk assumptions for users and validators moving forward.

From a network-security perspective, the collaboration among ZODL, Tachyon, Valar Group, the Zcash Foundation and Shielded Labs highlights a broader trend toward more transparent, auditable privacy primitives. The emphasis on formal verification and independent audits aligns with growing expectations in the crypto space that privacy-focused components must withstand rigorous scrutiny before deployment at scale.

Related reading: Why ZEC fell 40% even after Zcash patched a shielded pool bug

As Ironwood’s July 2026 target approaches, observers will be watching three main threads: the thoroughness of the formal verification and audits, the results of testing across the Zcash ecosystem, and the community’s consensus on how to interpret any post-migration signals regarding vulnerability exploitation. The outcome could influence how other privacy-preserving networks approach vulnerability remediation and upgrade governance in the months ahead.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on audit progress, test results, and any further middleware changes as the community weighs the balance between robust privacy and verifiable security.