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China is set to kick off its big policy meeting. What will be the key announcements?

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A protracted Iran war raises the likelihood of Trump's China visit being postponed: The Asia Group

A Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldier stands guard in front of the National Museum of China in Beijing on March 3, 2025, ahead of the country’s annual legislative meetings known as the “Two Sessions.”

Pedro Pardo | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s top policymakers are due to release growth targets and stimulus plans for the year at an annual parliamentary meeting that kicks off Wednesday.

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The gathering, dubbed the “Two Sessions,” consists of a consultative congress that will start later in the day, and a National People’s Congress due to open Thursday. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to announce a series of economic targets at the NPC, which had largely been decided at a December meeting

During the upcoming parliamentary meeting this year, policymakers are also expected to release details of a new five-year development plan, the 15th such program in China’s modern history. Investors will look for clues on how Beijing intends to achieve its domestic tech ambitions.

The goals will mark the penultimate step towards China’s 2035 goals with a focus on achieving technological self-sufficiency.

Senior Chinese leaders including top diplomat Wang Yi and heads of economic and financial ministries typically speak to the press during the Two Sessions. The gathering usually lasts around a week and is expected to conclude on March 11 this year.

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Asia Society analysts noted that China’s anti-corruption campaign has reduced the number of delegates participating in the Two Sessions this year.

Here’s what economists are expecting Premier Li to announce Thursday:

GDP growth of around 4.5% to 5%

Several Chinese local governments have already lowered their growth ambitions for 2026, signaling Beijing could follow suit with the national target.

A growth target below 5% would be the lowest on record, according to The Asia Society, and down from “around 5%” in the past three years. China didn’t set a GDP goal in 2020 due to the pandemic.

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“A slightly lower target would give policymakers more room to prioritise structural reform and improve data quality,” economists at Economist Intelligence Unit said in a note last week, penciling in a 4.6% growth prediction.

However, Morgan Stanley analysts see a “low probability” that Beijing will set a smaller growth target, adding that policymakers typically set GDP ranges — rather than single-figure targets — for periods of major economic stress. The firm also pointed out that 2026 was the first year of China’s “15th five-year plan,” which requires faster growth to anchor confidence.

A protracted Iran war raises the likelihood of Trump's China visit being postponed: The Asia Group

Inflation of around 2%

Budget deficit of 4%

Deeper challenges

China’s policy announcements will be scrutinized for details on consumer stimulus, such as expanding trade-in subsidies, and any incremental support for the struggling property market. The Two Sessions will likely shed light on Beijing’s thinking about the impact of U.S. trade tensions and the developing conflict in the Middle East.

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The world’s second-largest economy faces persistent challenges at home.

“There is a widening gap between Beijing’s targets (and data measuring economic performance) and the actual capacity of China’s policymakers to support domestic demand with the tools at their disposal,” Logan Wright, partner at U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group, said in a report Tuesday.

Wright added that China’s financial system was lending heavily to unproductive local government and state-owned enterprises to prevent them from collapsing — and that fiscal spending was largely executed by those same institutions.

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“The net result is a declining payoff in terms of investment and economic activity for the same volume of lending or fiscal spending, while private sector investment remains weak,” he said.

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Latest Clarity Act Draft Bans Rewards on Passive Stablecoin Balances

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Latest Clarity Act Draft Bans Rewards on Passive Stablecoin Balances

Activity-based rewards are allowed, but anything ‘economically equivalent to interest’ is barred.

Crypto industry leaders reviewed the draft stablecoin yield language in the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act during a closed-door session on Capitol Hill on Monday, and the opening reaction was that the text was overly narrow and unclear, according to CoinDesk.

The draft, negotiated by Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), bans yield payments for simply holding a stablecoin and restricts any structure that is economically equivalent to a bank deposit, CoinDesk reported. Activity-based rewards tied to loyalty programs, promotions, subscriptions, transactions, and platform use remain permitted, but the mechanics for determining what qualifies as a valid activity remain uncertain.

Circle shares fell 19%, while Coinbase dropped 8% on Tuesday after the draft raised the prospect of strict limits on stablecoin yield.

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, who pulled the company’s support for the Clarity Act in January over yield restrictions, causing the Senate Banking Committee to postpone its markup, has yet to comment on the new text. Stablecoin-related revenue represented roughly 20% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q3 2025.

The stablecoin yield question had been the single largest obstacle blocking the Clarity Act’s path through the Senate since January. Banks, led by the American Bankers Association, argued that stablecoin rewards could siphon deposits from traditional savings accounts. JPMorgan and Bank of America executives cited a Treasury study indicating that banks could lose up to $6.6 trillion in deposits if stablecoins offered unregulated yields, CNBC reported.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, barred stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders but did not prevent third-party platforms from offering rewards — a gap that experts warned would become a key regulatory battleground.

What’s Next

The deal clears the primary hurdle for a Senate Banking Committee markup, now tentatively targeted for late April after the Easter recess. The bill had already been unlikely to advance before then, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated earlier this month.

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From there, the bill faces a full Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version passed in January, reconciliation with the House version that passed 294-134 in July 2025, and a presidential signature.

Polymarket currently prices the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 at roughly 63%.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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CFTC Launches Innovation Task Force Covering Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets

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CFTC Launches Innovation Task Force Covering Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets

The new unit will coordinate policy development and work alongside the SEC’s Crypto Task Force.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday announced the formation of an Innovation Task Force aimed at developing clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto assets, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets within U.S. derivatives markets.

“By establishing a clear regulatory framework for innovators building on the new frontier of finance, we can foster responsible innovation at home and ensure American market participants are not left on the sidelines,” Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement.

The unit will operate alongside the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, which was formed in February and includes more than 30 executives, including Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman.

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According to the agency, the task force will concentrate on crypto assets and blockchain technology, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, and prediction markets and event contracts.

The task force will also coordinate with other federal bodies, most notably the SEC and its Crypto Task Force, as both agencies continue to align their regulatory postures.

Interagency Alignment

The announcement extends a run of coordinated action between the two regulators. Earlier this month, the SEC and CFTC signed a memorandum of understanding formalizing their commitment to jointly oversee the digital asset sector.

That MOU followed the SEC’s March 17 interpretive release — arguably its most consequential crypto guidance to date — which classified 16 major tokens, including BTC, ETH, and SOL, as digital commodities that fall outside the SEC’s jurisdiction and are under the purview of the CFTC. The CFTC said it would administer the Commodity Exchange Act consistently with that framework.

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Selig had telegraphed much of this agenda at the Milken Institute on March 3, where he said the CFTC was “modernizing” its rules to accommodate DeFi protocols and on-chain market infrastructure.

Prediction Markets in Focus

The inclusion of prediction markets as a core pillar of the task force underscores the CFTC’s intensifying push to assert federal jurisdiction over the rapidly growing sector. The agency launched a sweeping review of prediction markets on March 12 via an advance notice of proposed rulemaking.

Selig has also taken a combative stance against state gaming regulators that have challenged prediction market platforms, filing a friend-of-the-court brief in February in support of Crypto.com against the Nevada Gaming Control Board and warning that the CFTC “will no longer sit idly by” while states undermine its exclusive jurisdiction.

The momentum has coincided with major commercial developments in the space. Last week, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market partner and signed its own information-sharing MOU with the CFTC — a first for a professional sports league and the derivatives regulator.

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The task force also arrives days after the CFTC granted no-action relief to Phantom, allowing the self-custodial Solana wallet to connect users to derivatives trading through registered market participants without having to register as a broker.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Spain arrests Ledger cofounder kidnapping suspect; crypto risk up

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Crypto Breaking News

Spanish authorities have taken a significant step in a high-profile, crypto-linked abduction case by detaining a suspect in Benalmádena, Málaga province, under a European arrest warrant issued by France. The man is accused of involvement in the kidnapping and torture of Ledger co-founder David Balland, with attackers demanding a 10 million euro ransom.

Balland was abducted from his home in central France on January 21, 2025, and held in captivity until a police operation freed him on the night of January 22. The case has since evolved into a cross-border pursuit, drawing in French and Spanish investigators as they unravel a network tied to the crime. French authorities had previously identified and arrested other members of the group, with the remaining suspect believed to have fled to Spain to evade capture, according to Spain’s Civil Guard.

The Civil Guard’s statement underscored the scale and risk of the operation, noting the suspect’s dangerousness and the potential for the criminal organization to attempt a violent rescue. The suspect was located in Benalmádena after authorities traced movements across several Spanish provinces, a thread that points to a coordinated, pan-European effort to dismantle the group behind Balland’s capture.

The arrest marks a notable juncture in a case that has drawn attention for its intersection with the broader crypto-security landscape in Europe. It also reflects an ongoing pattern of cross-border policing cooperation aimed at disrupting communities that leverage crypto networks for illicit activities. Balland’s kidnapping, and the ransom demand, amplifies concerns around the safety of prominent figures in the crypto space and the vigilance required by startups and investors alike. Cointelegraph previously reported on Balland’s abduction and release in January 2025.

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Key takeaways

  • The suspect was detained in Benalmádena, Spain, under a European arrest warrant issued by France, linked to the Balland kidnapping case.
  • David Balland, Ledger co-founder, was abducted from central France on January 21, 2025, and released by police on January 22, with a ransom demand of 10 million euros.
  • Investigators traced the suspect’s movements across Valencia, Seville, and Cádiz before the arrest, including use of rental apartments and a third-party bank card to avoid detection.
  • The arrest comes amid a broader wave of crypto-linked crime in France during 2025, including a June arrest campaign involving 25 suspects in crypto-related kidnappings and other related incidents.
  • The case illustrates the growing security risks facing crypto figures and the value of cross-border cooperation in pursuing organized criminal networks tied to the crypto ecosystem.

Cross-border pursuit: from France to Spain

Authorities described a long-running, transnational chase that culminated in the suspect’s detention in the Andalusian town of Benalmádena. The operation required substantial resources due to the suspect’s perceived danger and the risk of intervention by associates who might attempt to free him. The investigation traced the individual through the Valencia region, where he lived with a partner and a friend, and noted that the group had minimized their footprint by renting apartments via online platforms and using a third party’s bank card to obscure financial links.

French investigators had already identified several other members of Balland’s attackers and pursued leads across borders. The French side has emphasized that the remaining suspect initially fled to Spain in an attempt to dodge capture, highlighting the challenges inherent in coordinating legal processes across jurisdictions in time-sensitive, violent-crime scenarios.

Crypto-linked crime in France: a mounting challenge

The Balland case sits within a broader pattern of crypto-linked criminal activity that tightened its grip on Europe’s crypto scene in 2025. In June, French authorities charged 25 suspects in a spree of kidnappings and attempted abductions targeting crypto executives and investors, according to reporting on the period. In another incident, a crypto user was abducted and held for hours in France, with attackers seeking cash and access to a hardware wallet containing a sum of funds. Earlier in the year, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, former CEO of Paymium, were targeted in an attempted abduction; the victims resisted and escaped. These events collectively elevated concerns about personal safety for crypto figures and the security of crypto-linked assets in real-world spaces.

As authorities pursue these investigations, industry observers are watching for how such criminal activity might influence security practices, governance standards at crypto companies, and the broader risk management landscape faced by the sector. For investors and builders alike, the trend underscores the necessity of robust physical and cyber risk controls, as well as ongoing collaboration with law enforcement to protect personnel and assets involved in the crypto economy. Cointelegraph has covered these developments as part of a wider conversation about security threats in the crypto space.

Implications for the ecosystem and what to watch next

The Benalmádena arrest reinforces the reality that crypto-linked crime extends beyond digital schemes into violent, real-world actions, and it tests the interoperability of European legal frameworks in urgent, cross-border contexts. Stakeholders should monitor how this case informs anti-kidnapping and asset-seizure protocols, as well as the sharing of intelligence between French and Spanish authorities and their counterparts across the EU. The ongoing investigation could yield new details about the operational methods of the criminal network, including how they leveraged crypto-related assets and platforms to finance or conceal their activities.

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For the crypto industry, the episode is a reminder of the non-technical risks that surround high-profile figures and firms. As jurisdictions tighten oversight and enforcement actions expand, companies may increasingly emphasize contingency planning, staff security training, and clear incident response playbooks. Observers will also be watching for any further cross-border action tied to Balland’s case and related crypto-crime activity, and for how authorities weigh sanctions, asset tracing, and criminal network disruption in future prosecutions. Earlier coverage by Cointelegraph noted Balland’s abduction and subsequent release, and industry coverage continues to analyze how these developments intersect with regulatory and security dynamics across Europe.

Readers should stay attentive to updates from French and Spanish authorities as the investigation unfolds, and to how prosecutors frame charges or reveal new connections within the broader network involved in crypto-linked violence.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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CESR becomes core benchmark as institutions seek yield in crypto

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Crypto-linked flows to trafficking services surge 85% in 2025, Chainalysis says

CESR, the Composite Ether Staking Rate, is emerging as Ethereum’s reference rate, underpinning swaps, futures and risk models as institutions chase transparent on‑chain yield.

The Composite Ether Staking Rate, or CESR, is rapidly becoming Ethereum’s reference rate, giving institutions a transparent benchmark for staking yields that can underpin loans, swaps and structured products across the crypto market. CoinDesk Indices and CoinFund describe CESR as “a global floating rate benchmark derived from the daily transaction fees and staking rewards emitted from the Ethereum Proof of Stake blockchain,” designed to serve as a neutral yardstick for on-chain income.

CESR sets a staking yield benchmark for Ethereum

The index captures all relevant block rewards paid to validators, including new ETH issuance, transaction fees and maximal extractable value, while also accounting for withdrawals and slashing, and is calculated and published daily, seven days a week.

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Chris Perkins, president of CoinFund, called CESR “a defining institutional reference rate for the crypto asset class,” arguing that it can “spur investment product growth and new opportunities for risk management across global finance.” Alan Campbell, president of CoinDesk Indices, said the benchmark is “a foundational piece of infrastructure to crypto-asset markets,” noting that it builds on the firm’s experience running some of the longest-standing digital asset indices. Both executives frame CESR as crypto’s answer to classic interest-rate benchmarks, capable of becoming a new discount rate and allowing assets “across the digital domain to be priced as a relative investment to CESR.”

The benchmark is already being put to work. FalconX said it completed “the first fixed-floating interest rate swap on Ethereum staking yields using CESR,” using the index to hedge and trade the path of staking returns. Rho Labs has launched a liquid staking-rates market that references CESR, with the protocol’s first futures contracts allowing institutional counterparties to lock in fixed returns or speculate on future ETH staking yields. Rho founder Alex Ryvkin said CESR lets traders “manage risk from Ethereum staking yields and transaction costs more efficiently, and lock-in fixed rates of return,” adding that staking yields are “table stakes for serious ETH-based products and services.”

Treehouse Finance notes that CESR effectively captures the mean, annualized staking yield of Ethereum’s validator set, providing a standardized rate that can be slotted into risk models and pricing frameworks alongside traditional benchmarks. Lukka, a provider of institutional crypto data, has also partnered with CoinDesk Indices to distribute CESR to asset managers and analysts, emphasizing that the index incorporates deposits, withdrawals and penalties to deliver “a complete and reliable benchmark” for institutional use. As Perkins put it, “staking rates are to crypto what interest rates are to traditional financial markets,” and CESR is intended to unlock the “$500 trillion traditional rates markets across the crypto industry” by giving yield-focused investors a single, trusted reference point.

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Lombard, Bitwise Partner to Unlock Bitcoin Yield Without Custody Transfer

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Telegram, Lending, DeFi, Institutions

Lombard, a company building Bitcoin-based lending infrastructure, will team with Bitwise Asset Management to enable institutions to earn yield and borrow against Bitcoin (BTC) without moving assets out of custody, aiming to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in Bitcoin held in institutional custody.

The partnership was announced Tuesday at the Digital Asset Summit in New York. 

Jacob Phillips, CEO and co-founder of Lombard, told Cointelegraph: 

The breakthrough is Bitcoin Smart Accounts—connecting two previously isolated worlds: institutional custody and onchain finance.

According to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph, Bitwise will develop yield strategies combining DeFi lending with tokenized real-world assets, while Morpho, a decentralized lending protocol, will provide the lending infrastructure for borrowing against Bitcoin.

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The platform uses Bitcoin-native tools such as partially signed transactions and timelocks to verify collateral, allowing positions to be represented onchain without transferring or rehypothecating the underlying assets.