Crypto World
Circle Stock Jumps 50% as Short Squeeze Fuels Rally
TLDR
- Circle shares surged nearly 50% within two sessions after the company reported fourth quarter earnings.
- Analysts said a short squeeze drove the rally rather than a change in the company’s fundamentals.
- Hedge funds had built large bearish positions before the earnings release, which led to rapid short covering.
- USDC circulation rose 72% year over year to $75.3 billion during the quarter.
- Circle reported a net loss of $70 million for 2024 compared with a net profit in the prior year.
Circle shares surged nearly 50% within two sessions after the company released fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday. The rally followed an 80% decline from record highs reached last year and reversed recent losses. Analysts said short covering, rather than improved fundamentals, powered most of the advance.
Circle Earnings Trigger Short Squeeze
Circle reported strong growth in USDC circulation during the fourth quarter. The company said USDC supply reached $75.3 billion, up 72% year over year. However, analysts linked the sharp share price jump to hedge fund positioning.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said positioning drove the move. He stated, “The magnitude of the move was not driven purely by the headline numbers.” He added, “The real catalyst was positioning,” and described the rally as a “high-probability short squeeze rather than a fundamental re-rating.” He estimated hedge funds lost about $500 million in one day on short positions.
Hedge funds had built large bearish bets before the earnings release. As the stock climbed, short sellers rushed to cover positions. Consequently, buying pressure accelerated and pushed shares sharply higher.
The surge broke a prolonged downtrend that had erased most of last year’s gains. Shares had fallen about 80% from prior record levels before the earnings report. The rapid rebound followed heavy trading volumes across sessions.
USDC Growth Contrasts with Profitability Decline
Circle’s flagship stablecoin, USDC, expanded in circulation during the quarter. The company reported $75.3 billion in USDC supply, which outpaced Tether’s USDT growth rate. Harvey Li, founder of Tokenization Insight, highlighted the supply increase in a research note.
Revenue from reserve income rose 58% to $2.64 billion. Circle earns reserve income mainly from U.S. government debt backing USDC. However, distribution costs climbed 66% to $1.66 billion during the same period.
Despite higher circulation, Circle posted a net loss of $70 million for 2024. The company had reported a $156 million net profit in 2023. Li said, “Stablecoin may be scaling; stablecoin issuance is a tough business.”
Japanese investment bank Mizuho raised its price target on Circle to $90 from $77. The bank cited stronger fourth-quarter results and growth linked to prediction markets. However, it kept a neutral rating and warned that lower rates could pressure reserve income.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said revenue and profit exceeded expectations. Management pointed to prediction and betting platforms, including Polymarket, as drivers of USDC growth. Executives also described USDC as a potential default currency for AI agents in digital marketplaces.
Mizuho projected an average USDC circulation of about 123 million in 2027. The bank modeled reserve income near $3.7 billion and EBITDA of $916 million for that year. It applied a 24x EBITDA multiple and set a $90 price target.
TLDR:
- DOJ charges allege $2.5B in Nvidia-powered AI servers were diverted to China through covert routes.
- Prosecutors claim fake documents and dummy servers were used to bypass U.S. export compliance checks.
- Over $510M in restricted AI systems allegedly shipped within weeks through a Southeast Asia network.
- SMCI stock fell after hours as legal risks emerged around export controls and the distribution of AI hardware.
Authorities in the United States have arrested Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw for allegedly conspiring to unlawfully export AI servers. Prosecutors claim the operation diverted billions of dollars’ worth of advanced systems to China.
The charges follow an indictment unsealed by the U.S. Department of Justice, detailing a coordinated effort to bypass export restrictions.
Allegations of Export Control Violations
The indictment alleges that Liaw, a co-founder of Super Micro Computer, conspired with associates to ship restricted AI servers abroad.
These systems reportedly integrated high-performance GPUs developed by NVIDIA. U.S. authorities classify such hardware as sensitive due to its advanced computing capabilities.
According to court filings, Liaw worked alongside Ruei-Tsang “Steven” Chang and Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun to facilitate the operation.
Prosecutors allege the group used an intermediary company in Southeast Asia to mask the final destination of shipments.
In an official statement, Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg described the alleged conduct in detail. He said the indictment outlines efforts to evade export laws through “false documents, staged dummy servers to mislead inspectors, and convoluted transshipment schemes.”
Eisenberg added that the technology involved carries national importance. He noted that these chips represent American innovation and said authorities will continue enforcing export controls to protect that advantage.
Use of Shell Companies and Concealment Methods
Investigators allege that the defendants relied on a layered logistics structure to move the servers. Systems were assembled in the United States, routed through Taiwan, and then delivered to Southeast Asia before reaching China.
Authorities state that the intermediary company purchased approximately $2.5 billion worth of servers between 2024 and 2025.
A surge in shipments occurred within a short period, including roughly $510 million worth of equipment moved in just three weeks.
Officials say the defendants used deception to bypass compliance checks. Thousands of non-functional servers were staged at warehouses to simulate legitimate inventory during inspections. These replicas were presented to auditors reviewing export compliance.
Describing the scheme, FBI Assistant Director Roman Rozhavsky said the defendants allegedly conspired to sell “billions of dollars’ worth of servers integrating sensitive, controlled graphic processing units” in violation of U.S. laws.
Legal Charges and Enforcement Response
Liaw and Sun were arrested and are expected to appear in federal court in California. Chang remains a fugitive. The charges include conspiracy to violate export control laws, smuggling, and conspiracy to defraud the United States.
U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton addressed the case, stating that the defendants allegedly operated through “a tangled web of lies, obfuscation, and concealment” to generate revenue. He added that such diversion schemes pose a direct threat to national security.
Federal investigators emphasized the broader enforcement effort tied to the case. According to FBI officials, safeguarding advanced AI technology remains a priority due to its strategic importance.
Following the announcement, shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) declined in after-hours trading. Authorities reiterated that the charges remain allegations, and all defendants are presumed innocent unless proven guilty in court.
The quantum risk to Bitcoin investors is real, but not all wallets are vulnerable, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it, says Galaxy Digital research analyst Will Owens.
Owens said in a report on Thursday that, in theory, a quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys, allowing an attacker to impersonate the owner, forge a signature and steal coins.
However, he argued that not all wallets are equally vulnerable to this risk.
“In fact, most wallets are not vulnerable today. Funds are at risk only when public keys are exposed on-chain,” he said.
Owens said that created two main ways wallets are exposed: those whose public keys are already visible, and wallets whose public keys are revealed at the time of spending.
The threat of quantum computing to crypto has long been debated among the community as an upcoming inflection point. Advanced computers capable of breaking encryption have been theorized as able to reveal user keys, expose sensitive data and steal user funds.
The right people are on top of the issue
Critics argue the threat posed by quantum computers is overblown because the technology is still decades away from being viable, and banking giants and other traditional targets will be cracked long before Bitcoin.
Owens said there is also online discourse that Bitcoin Core developers are “ignoring and gatekeeping” quantum-related proposals, such as the soft fork BIP 360, but he claims to have found otherwise, noting that the “pace of proposals has accelerated meaningfully since late 2025.”
“Contrary to some public criticism, our review found substantial developer work addressing the question of quantum vulnerabilities and mitigations,” he said.
“The ecosystem now has a concrete and maturing set of proposals spanning the full problem surface. These proposals are not theoretical. They are being actively developed, reviewed, and debated by some of the most experienced contributors in the Bitcoin ecosystem.”
Other people in the space have also been presenting their solutions. Crypto OG Willy Woo suggested last November that a way to keep your Bitcoin (BTC) safe until there’s a solution to the quantum threat is to hold the coins in a SegWit wallet for around seven years.
Related: Bitcoin could go sub-$50K if quantum isn’t solved by 2028: Capriole
Governance will still likely present a challenge
When the developer community does come up with a post-quantum solution, Owens said it will likely present a challenge because “Bitcoin has no CEO, no board, and no central authority that can mandate a software update.”
“But the nature of this particular threat — external, technical, and universal in its impact — aligns incentives in a way that past disputes over Bitcoin’s economic direction did not,” he said. “Every honest participant in the network, from miners to holders to exchanges, has a direct financial interest in the network’s continued security.”
“For investors, the key takeaway is straightforward: the risk is real but recognized, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it.”
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
A state-level crypto regulatory bill introduced in Kentucky includes provisions that would force hardware wallet manufacturers to build a “backdoor” into devices, according to the Bitcoin Policy Institute.
Summary
- Kentucky House Bill 380 proposes requiring hardware wallet providers to enable recovery of seed phrases, raising concerns over potential backdoor access.
- Bitcoin Policy Institute says the requirement is technically unworkable for non-custodial wallets and could undermine self custody of private keys.
Kentucky House Bill 380 has been amended at the last minute to require manufacturers to provide recovery options for users’ seed phrases, the BPI said.
The bill was introduced by state Representatives Aaron Thompson and Tom Smith.
According to the bill’s official language, providers “shall provide a mechanism for and assist any person who owns a hardware wallet” in resetting any “password, PIN, seed phrase, or other similar information that is necessary to access the contents of the hardware wallet.”
There are also identity verification requirements for users requesting password, seed phrase, or PIN resets from manufacturers.
The BPI says this is “technologically impossible for non custodial wallets” and adds that no one “can access or recover a user’s seed phrase.”
It is a threat to self-custody, which the group warns could push users toward centralized custody options that do not offer the same level of control.
“Kentucky legislators should be protecting their constituents’ right to secure their own property. We urge the Senate to strip this provision before the bill reaches a vote,” the BPI added.
Self-custody remains a debated topic. Crypto proponents argue that it is a fundamental right.
Some regulators agree. For instance, U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he is “in favor” of self-custody options in cases where intermediaries impose a financial or operational burden on the user.
Meanwhile, California’s Banking and Finance Committee chair Avelino Valencia amended a bill and added provisions that protect a user’s self-custody rights.
However, last year, the SEC issued a warning to retail investors about crypto custody risks and urged users to carefully weigh the trade-offs between managing their own wallets and relying on third-party custodians.
The agency noted that losing a private key would result in permanent loss of access to crypto assets, while also cautioning that custodial services carry their own risks, including hacks, misuse, or insolvency that could leave users unable to access their funds.
Gemini has been hit with a proposed class action in New York for allegedly misleading investors during and after the crypto exchange’s September initial public offering.
The class action lawsuit filed by shareholders on Thursday in a Manhattan federal court against Gemini, its co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, and company executives, claims they made misleading statements in the company’s IPO documents.
Plaintiff Marc Methvin claimed that the documents portrayed Gemini as a growing crypto exchange focused on expanding its user base and international footprint, but made an “abrupt corporate pivot to a prediction-market-centric business model.”
Gemini held its IPO in September, floating its shares at $28 on the Nasdaq. The stock briefly tapped $40 but has since fallen by more than 80% to trade at around $6 on Thursday.
The plaintiffs are seeking a jury trial and damages as compensation for investors who bought shares at what the complaint claimed were “artificially inflated prices” shortly after the IPO.
Prediction market pivot caused stock drop, say shareholders
According to the complaint, in November, Gemini executives publicly touted its international expansion progress, stating the company was committed to extending into “key global markets.”
The lawsuit said Gemini IPO documents described the exchange as its “core product.” However, in early February, the Winklevoss brothers announced a pivot to prediction markets called “Gemini 2.0.”
The firm also announced that it would cut 25% of its workforce and exit the EU, UK, and Australian markets.
Related: Gemini post-IPO shakeup sees exit of three top executives
Later that month, the company’s chief financial officer, chief operations officer, and chief legal officer all departed as the firm reported increased operating expenses of around 40%, according to the lawsuit.
The complaint claimed that as a result of these changes, the class group had seen “significant losses and damages” as Gemini’s stock price dropped to an all-time low of $5.82 by February 20.
Gemini reported on Thursday that its Q4 revenues rose 39% year-on-year to $60.3 million, beating analyst expectations of $51.7 million.
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
US authorities say the co-founder of Super Micro Computer, Inc. has been charged and arrested over an alleged multi-billion dollar scheme to smuggle advanced artificial intelligence chips from the US to China.
The Justice Department said in a statement on Thursday that it had unsealed an indictment charging Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, as well as Super Micro sales executives Ruei-Tsang “Steven” Chang, and Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun over the alleged conspiracy.
Prosecutors said the trio violated US export control laws by conspiring “to sell billions of dollars’ worth of servers integrating sensitive, controlled graphic processing units to buyers in China.”
Super Micro, which was not charged, is a $18.5 billion California-based tech company specializing in high-performance server and data center hardware for large-scale companies such as IBM. Its infrastructure partners include firms like Nvidia and Google.
The Justice Department said the alleged scheme involved the trio using a range of concealment techniques to hide the sale of around $2.5 billion worth of servers to a company in China across 2024 and 2025, with $510 million worth of sales occurring between April and May 2025 alone.
“These defendants allegedly fabricated documents, staged bogus equipment to pass audit inventories, and used a pass-through company to conceal their misconduct and true clientele list,” said James Barnacle, Jr., FBI assistant director in charge of the New York Field Office.
Liaw and Sun have been arrested and will stand before a judge in the Northern District of California. Meanwhile, the Justice Department said that Chang, a Taiwanese citizen based outside the US, “remains a fugitive.”
Super Micro stock dives, company says it’s cooperating
In a statement shared with Cointelegraph, Super Micro distanced itself from the trio and labeled the alleged actions as a “contravention of the Company’s policies and compliance controls.”
Related: DOJ and Europol take down SocksEscort network tied to crypto fraud
“The company has been cooperating fully with the government’s investigation and will continue to do so. Supermicro has not been named as a defendant in the indictment,” a company spokesperson said.
Super Micro’s stock had initially gained during regular trading hours on Thursday. Following the Justice Department’s announcement, the stock has since dropped 13.25% to $26.71 in after-hours trading.
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
Bitcoin and the wider crypto market saw a notable price bounce on Friday after major economies announced joint efforts to boost oil supplies through the now-disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
BTC, the largest cryptocurrency, jumped to $70,800, up more than 1% on the day, extending its recovery from overnight lows under $68,900, according to CoinDesk data. Other major coins, including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL), saw smaller gains of less than 1%, lagging behind bitcoin.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 2% to $93.80, alongside similar losses in Brent, after Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan said they would take steps to stabilize energy markets and join collaborative efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In a joint statement issued by the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office, leaders of these nations condemned the attacks by Iran and urged it to halt its actions immediately.
On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil tankers and could release crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
With the Federal Reserve expressing heightened uncertainty on growth and inflation outlooks earlier this week, traders have scaled back expectations for Fed rate cuts. That has left crypto and traditional risk assets largely at the mercy of oil price swings.
The latest drop in oil, though positive, doesn’t end the uncertainty, as military conflict in the Middle East continues. WTI remains near recent support at $92.00, still significantly above pre-war valuations.
“For now, WTI crude continues to hold what appears to be an increasingly important area of support. That level aligns well with prior highs and the short-term trend. As long as oil holds that support and the trend continues higher, it will likely maintain an upward bias,” Mott Capital Management said in an email to its subscribers.
The firm added that positioning in the oil options market suggests higher levels are possible.
Another market that bitcoin traders might want to watch is the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark equity index.
The index closed below its pivotal 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Thursday – the first such instance since May last year – signaling a bearish shift in momentum. A potential strengthening of risk aversion in stocks could spill over into crypto and the wider financial markets.
TLDR:
- The Fed now projects only one rate cut for 2026, leaving Bitcoin and risk assets with limited near-term relief.
- Inflation forecasts have been revised upward to 2.7% for 2026, driven partly by rising oil and natural gas prices.
- The U.S. 30-year treasury yield is approaching 5%, raising the cost of capital and tightening global liquidity.
- Bitcoin remains caught between its identity as a store of value and a speculative asset in uncertain macro conditions.
Bitcoin continues to face mounting pressure as macroeconomic conditions grow increasingly unfavorable. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, sticky inflation, and rising treasury yields are tightening global liquidity conditions.
With only one rate cut now projected for 2026, risk assets are finding it harder to attract fresh capital. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are adding upward pressure on energy prices.
This mix of factors is reshaping investor sentiment and pushing capital toward safer, higher-yielding assets.
Fed’s Hawkish Tone Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently delivered a hawkish tone on the broader economic outlook. The central bank now projects only one rate cut for 2026.
The dot plot remains unchanged for now, offering little immediate relief for risk-sensitive markets. Powell did not explicitly raise the possibility of rate hikes, but that scenario has not been fully ruled out.
Inflation remains the central issue driving the Fed’s restrained approach to monetary policy. Projections have been revised upward to 2.7% for 2026, reflecting persistent price pressures across the economy.
The Fed expects further inflationary stress, partly tied to rising oil and natural gas prices. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling much of that energy-related surge.
Crypto analyst Darkfost_Coc noted that the Fed cannot act decisively while inflation remains sticky. This restraint leaves Bitcoin and other risk assets in a difficult position.
Without rate relief, borrowing costs stay elevated and investor appetite for risk remains constrained across markets.
At the same time, early signs of weakness are beginning to surface in the labor market. Economic growth is also slowing at a measured but noticeable pace.
Together, these trends are bringing stagflation risks back into broader financial discussions. Such an environment has rarely favored speculative assets, and Bitcoin is no exception.
Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery
As yields rise, the dollar is strengthening once again, creating a challenging backdrop for Bitcoin. This dynamic tends to tighten global liquidity and reduce capital flows toward higher-risk markets.
According to Darkfost_Coc, periods when the dollar and treasury yields become too strong consistently weigh on Bitcoin.
The U.S. 30-year yield is now approaching 5%, a key benchmark closely tied to mortgage lending. The 10-year yield is hovering near 4.30%, raising the overall cost of capital across markets. Higher borrowing costs make it more difficult to invest, finance operations, or take on leveraged positions.
If geopolitical tensions persist, elevated yields could attract large pools of capital seeking safer returns. Investors may shift funds into treasuries, which offer relatively attractive yields with minimal risk. This further drains the liquidity that would otherwise flow into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin still struggles to clearly define its role within the broader global financial system. It continues to occupy an uncertain space between a store of value and a speculative asset.
Until that identity solidifies, the current macro environment will keep limiting its ability to draw sustained capital.
The FBI has issued a warning about a fake token on the Tron blockchain that is impersonating the agency to trick users in a crypto phishing scam.
Summary
- FBI warns of fake Tron tokens impersonating the agency and claiming wallets are under investigation.
- Users are directed to fraudulent websites demanding AML verification to avoid asset freezes.
- Token has reached at least 728 wallets, with some holding over $1 million in USDT.
FBI’s New York Field Office issued a message on Thursday warning that scammers were sending tokens to users to siphon personal information under the pretence that the recipient’s wallet was “under investigation.”
Recipients of the token are redirected to a website where they are asked to complete an anti money laundering verification online “to avoid a total block on your assets.”
“FBI New York encourages users of the Tron blockchain network to exercise caution if they encounter a token purported to be from the FBI,” the agency said, advising users not to provide “any identifying information to any website associated with such [a] token.”
The token also comes with warnings that a user could face “a total block” on their assets if they fail to clear the verification process.
Once on the malicious website, victims are told that “current sanctions” can be avoided if users immediately comply with the request.
Similar tactics are common across other phishing scams where bad actors prey on urgency to extract sensitive information.
Scammers may be targeting users who are concerned about potential regulatory scrutiny and fear enforcement action.
According to data from Tronscan, the token was sent to at least 728 digital wallets, and many of these wallets held more than $1 million in USDT.
Those who have already shared information have been urged to file a report with the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center.
FBI developed their own crypto to bust scammers
While the FBI has confirmed that it has no involvement with the fake token, in the past, the agency developed a token to take down a market manipulation network.
As previously reported by crypto.news, the FBI launched NexFundAI during a sting called “Operation Token Mirrors.” The token was used to expose a wash trading ring involved in artificially inflating prices.
Meanwhile, phishing remains a consistent threat and has become one of the leading attack vectors in recent years, resulting in multi-million dollar losses across incidents.
US gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach says a Nevada state court-issued restraining order against Kalshi appears imminent, preventing it from offering sports-related contracts.
A federal appeals court has cleared Nevada state authorities to enforce a temporary restraining order on Kalshi to block its sports event contracts.
The Ninth Circuit Appeals Court on Thursday denied Kalshi’s emergency request to stay a lower court proceeding, meaning the case will be sent back to federal court and will allow Nevada’s regulators to take action.
Gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach said a temporary restraining order (TRO) against Kalshi now appears imminent, and added that it wouldn’t be able to operate in Nevada for at least 14 days until a preliminary injunction hearing is held:
“Since a TRO is not appealable under Nevada law, Kalshi would be required to exit the state in the interim.”
The Nevada Gaming Control Board sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist in March over its offering of sports event contracts, arguing they are unlicensed sports betting under Nevada law.
Kalshi has argued in court that its event contracts are under the sole federal jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and any block on its event contracts would cause it “imminent harm.”
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have recently surged with weekly trading volumes now consistently exceeding $2 billion, according to Dune Analytics, which has also attracted increased scrutiny from lawmakers with concerns over insider trading and market manipulation.
Related: SEC interpretation on crypto laws ‘a beginning, not an end,‘ says Atkins
State regulators in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and other states have also sought to take action over sports event contracts, with Kalshi and rival prediction market platforms Crypto.com, Polymarket and Coinbase in legal battles with multiple states.
Kalshi foresees conflict between courts
In a motion on March 13, Kalshi argued that letting Nevada proceed with its temporary restraining order while federal litigation is still pending creates a serious risk of conflicting rulings.
Kalshi said the courts could arrive at “exactly the opposite conclusion” as to whether federal commodities law preempts state gambling laws, adding that it could “create jurisdictional chaos.”
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
Gemini pushed through a better-than-expected fourth quarter even as the broader crypto market remained under pressure. The exchange reported revenue of $60.3 million for Q4, up 39% from a year earlier and ahead of consensus estimates of about $51.7 million. However, the company also posted a net loss of $140.8 million for the quarter, widening from a $27 million loss in the same period a year ago. For the full year, Gemini’s loss totaled $585 million in 2025, compared with $156.6 million in 2024. The results come after the platform went public in September and amid a late-2025 crypto drawdown that saw Bitcoin slide from its peak above $126,000 in October.
Shares of Gemini initially moved higher in after-hours trading, climbing as much as 14% to a high of $6.83 before settling around $6.36, for a gain of roughly 6% on the session. The day’s action mirrored the market’s mixed reception to a growth-focused quarter that delivered a revenue win but did not escape the ongoing profitability challenge for many crypto incumbents.
Key takeaways
- Gemini’s Q4 revenue of $60.3 million rose 39% year over year and beat estimates of about $51.7 million, signaling business momentum even as trading volumes cooled.
- The quarter produced a net loss of $140.8 million, deepening from a $27 million loss a year earlier; the company’s 2025 loss reached $585 million, higher than 2024’s $156.6 million.
- Management cited deliberate fee-structure optimization and other efficiency measures as drivers of revenue growth, even with a softer trading environment.
- Gemini is accelerating a strategic shift toward a markets-focused organization, highlighted by the launch of Gemini Predictions across all 50 states and a plan to leverage that infrastructure for perpetual futures once approved in the U.S.
Strategic ambitions sharpen as cost discipline takes center stage
In a February update, Gemini said it was trimming its workforce by roughly 30% since the start of 2026, citing challenging market conditions. The leadership framing this downsizing as part of a broader pivot toward a more AI-driven, efficiency-first operating model. Co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss highlighted a rapid integration of artificial intelligence into the development process, noting that AI is now used in more than 40% of production code changes and is expected to rise significantly in the near term. “Not using AI at Gemini will soon be the equivalent of showing up to work with a typewriter instead of a laptop,” they wrote in a shareholder letter.
The Winklevoss duo signaled a clear pivot toward a U.S.-centric growth strategy, underscoring optimism about a pro-crypto regulatory environment in the United States. They stressed that 2026 would be about focusing and expanding in America, aligning with a broader investor interest in platforms that can scale within clearer regulatory boundaries.
From trading floors to markets infrastructure: Predictions and futures ambitions
Gemini has been building out its markets-oriented toolkit, most notably with Gemini Predictions. The platform rolled out its in-house prediction market across all 50 states in December, shortly after obtaining a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company described its longer-term plan as turning Gemini into a “markets company” anchored by predictions, with the potential to extend that framework to perpetual futures contracts once U.S. approval is secured.
The December launch followed a prior line of coverage noting Gemini’s broader ambition to expand beyond traditional exchange functions into more complex financial primitives. As part of the 2026 roadmap, the company intends to refine and grow Predictions while simultaneously scaling its credit card program and exchange services, tapping into a more diversified revenue mix that could help weather ongoing volatility in crypto trading volumes. In evaluating the strategic path, investors will also be watching how regulatory feedback in the U.S. shapes the pace of approvals for new product categories, including perpetual futures.
These plans come against the backdrop of a February update that confirmed Gemini’s withdrawal from the U.K., the EU and Australia, a move the company attributed to tougher market conditions. The leadership’s stated aim is to “focus and double down on America,” a stance that aligns with the firm’s renewed investment in U.S.-based market infrastructure and its growing bets on a more favorable regulatory climate for crypto innovation.
The company’s quarterly results reflect a broader pattern among newer, publicly traded crypto platforms: revenue growth can outpace trading volumes due to fee-structure optimization, product diversification and active expansion into non-trading monetization streams. Gemini’s fourth-quarter performance—driven by its credit card program and pricing strategy—offers a data point suggesting that meaningful upside can still emerge even amid a subdued price cycle. The question for investors now is whether the path to profitability can be accelerated through AI-enabled efficiency gains and a clearer, U.S.-centered growth engine, supported by product bets in prediction markets and, potentially, regulated futures.
According to the company’s investor materials, the Q4 results marked the highest quarterly revenue in three years, reflecting the impact of the revised fee structure through the back half of 2025 and a push into more monetizable products. The combination of revenue resilience and continued investment in AI-driven scale positions Gemini as a case study in how crypto platforms seek to balance growth with cost discipline during a protracted market downturn.
For investors and builders watching the sector, the key takeaway is that 2026 could hinge on how quickly Gemini translates its market infrastructure into sustainable profitability, the pace at which U.S. regulators greenlight broader product suites, and how effectively the firm scales non-trading revenue streams, like predictions markets and card programs, in a regulated environment.
Readers should keep an eye on next-quarter earnings and regulatory developments that could determine the speed at which Gemini completes its shift toward a broader markets-facing business model while continuing to nurture its consumer-facing products.
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