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Circle’s (CRCL) strong trading volumes noted by Mizuho as it raises price target

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Middle East tensions, higher oil boost Circle (CRCL) shares as rate-cut odds fade: Mizuho

Circle’s (CRCL) USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target for the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.

The shares rose 1% in early trading to $115.40 and are up roughly 95% from their February lows.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins increased their Circle estimates, citing “USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agentic commerce expectations.”

Stablecoins, digital tokens backed by reserves such as fiat currency or gold, serve as key payment and settlement rails in the crypto economy, particularly for trading and cross-border transfers. The sector is dominated by Tether’s USDT with a $143 billion market cap, followed by Circle’s USDC at $78 billion.

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According to their Friday report, USDC has recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT. That gives USDC roughly 64% share of adjusted volumes, a sharp reversal from 2019–2025 when Tether consistently led, and USDC averaged about a 30% share.

The analysts said the shift matters because the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone. Standard Chartered expects the stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Reflecting stronger USDC activity and expanding use cases, the Mizuho analysts raised several long-term Circle forecasts. They now expect “meaningful wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a prior estimate of 10 million, helping lift projected USDC market capitalization to $139 billion from $123 billion.

Circle has outperformed other crypto-linked equities recently.

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William Blair analysts said in a Thursday note that while recent gains could easily be linked to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other factors are likely driving the move.

They pointed instead to the resilience of USDC’s market capitalization despite the broader crypto downturn, along with increasing investor recognition of Circle’s economic model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.

Other analysts pointed to a positioning-driven short squeeze rather than fundamentals as the driver of the recent move higher in the shares.

While the company delivered strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s outsized reaction post earnings was driven more by crowded short bets heading into the print than by strong financials, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

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Read more: Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power, says bullish Wall Street analyst

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Crypto World

Crypto Donations a Challenge for Canadian Election Transparency

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Crypto Donations a Challenge for Canadian Election Transparency

A new bill in Canada, if passed, would ban political parties and other third parties in elections from accepting cryptocurrency donations in a bid to prevent election interference.

The Strong and Free Elections Act would also ban contributions made by money orders and prepaid cards, citing these methods as difficult to track.

The bill notes the potential for foreign actors to influence elections through difficult-to-trace digital payment methods, ensuring Canadian elections “remain free, fair and secure at all times,” according to Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon. 

Moreover, as the office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections told Cointelegraph, “The rapid and ongoing change in digital payments creates significant challenges and risks for law enforcement, including for our office.”

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Crypto creates problems for election transparency, gov’t officials say

The rules for political financing in Canada are complex. Two offices, the Commissioner of Canada Elections and Elections Canada, play “distinct but complementary” roles under the Canada Elections Act’s (CEA). The bill banning crypto political donations would make changes to this Act. 

The act first came into effect in 2000. Source: Government of Canada

Elections Canada, led by Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault, is responsible for conducting federal elections and administering the political financing regime. 

The Commissioner of Canada Elections, currently Caroline J. Simard, “is responsible for ensuring that the rules under the Act are complied with and enforced,” a commissioner spokesperson said.

For both agencies, cryptocurrencies present challenges to maintaining free and transparent elections. For the commissioner’s office these include “potential difficulties associated with tracing the source of funding.”

Perrault shared a similar sentiment at an October appearance at the Procedure and House Affairs Committee.

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“The problem with those instruments is that they do not provide transparency as to the original source of the contributor.”

He said that “a key principle of our system is that we know where the money comes from. There’s no, in my view, valid reason to use a prepaid instrument, a prepaid credit card, to provide money to a candidate or to a political party.”

Perrault acknowledged that they have legitimate uses elsewhere in the economy, “but in terms of financing parties and candidates, I do not believe they are appropriate.”

Crypto’s ‘non-moneyness’ creates an opening for foreign influence

Under current Canadian law, cryptocurrency qualifies as a legal, “non-monetary” contribution for political parties. Elections Canada told Cointelegraph they therefore must abide by certain reporting requirements.

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“For contributions over $200, the political entity must report the contributor’s name and address in its financial return.”

However, contributions up to $200, if the donor is a Canadian citizen or permanent resident not in the crypto business, are deemed “nil.”

According to Perrault, the rules for non-monetary donations up to $200 were initially included in the CEA “to allow small-value gifts of goods and services—those valued under $200 and made by a person not in the business of providing such a good or service.” He gave an example of cooking food for campaign staff or lending the use of a personal vehicle. 

This becomes more problematic when applied to crypto. Perrault said, “Although contributions of cryptocurrencies are non-monetary contributions under the CEA, the reality of cryptocurrency is that it functions increasingly like money.”

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“If a contribution were made in cryptocurrency, it could be seen as a means by which unregulated resources could enter the federal political financing regime.”

He officially recommended that parliament “prohibit making contributions in cryptocurrency and untraceable instruments.”

While the potential for abuse is there, Elections Canada noted that “generally speaking, cryptocurrencies are not widely used to raise funds at the federal level in Canada.”

However, “the reporting framework for contributions does not currently require entities to disclose when a contribution was made via cryptocurrency, so Elections Canada does not have official figures on this.”

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Crypto in Canadian politics: From convoys to Carney

Canada has displayed a relatively open, if cautious stance toward crypto. It became the first country to approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in February 2021. 

Crypto has appeared in the political discourse before as well. In 2022, a series of blockades and protests against COVID-19 vaccine mandates for truck drivers quickly ballooned into nationwide demonstrations. On Jan. 22 that year, the first convoy of over 1,000 vehicles departed for Ottawa. Over the next few weeks, crowds occupied the streets of downtown Ottawa to protest then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government.

When the government used the Emergencies Act to freeze convoy organizers’ bank accounts, they took donations in crypto. According to CBC, the convoy raised over $20 million in crypto donations, $8 million of which was still unaccounted for by April 2022. 

Cryptocurrencies were hailed as a means to circumvent government control and take control over critical funding for the anti-vaccine protest movement. 

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Mathew Burgoyne, a digital currency lawyer based in Calgary, told the CBC, “There’s a huge limitation, as we’ve seen, with freeze orders when they relate to cryptocurrency wallets.”

Crypto entered the political arena again during the 2025 federal elections when Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre made a number of statements and appearances promoting crypto and blockchain tech.

Related: Why Pierre Poilievre may not be Canada’s crypto savior

In one campaign lunch stop, he bought shawarma using the Bitcoin Lightning Network at Canadian chain Tahini’s, and he talked about Bitcoin while smoking hookah with the company’s vice president.

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Under current Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Canadian crypto industry is growing, but with a “regulate first” attitude from policymakers. In November, Parliament introduced the Canada Stablecoin Act as part of the budget, giving the Bank of Canada the power to regulate stablecoins in the country.

As it concerns political donations, some in the industry believe there are higher priorities right now. One industry source at a Canadian crypto firm told Cointelegraph that issues like stablecoin regulation, tokenization and payments modernization take precedence over political donations, which are still quite marginal, in their estimation.

They said that the industry doesn’t support a ban, but there are other policy decisions that present clearer opportunities for the industry to make a difference.

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