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CME Bitcoin futures open with second-largest gap on record

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CME Bitcoin futures open with second-largest gap on record

Bitcoin opened the week with a sharp CME futures gap after January’s heavy losses, as weak liquidity and cautious positioning kept pressure on price.

Summary

  • CME Bitcoin futures reopened far below the previous close after weekend selling.
  • January’s decline was driven by liquidations and shrinking liquidity.
  • Technical signals point to continued pressure below key resistance.

Bitcoin-linked derivatives opened the new trading week with a sharp price gap after CME futures reopened nearly $6,800 lower, reflecting continued pressure following January’s weak close.

CME Bitcoin futures opened around $77,730, down from Friday’s close near $84,560, creating the second-largest gap on record. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) was trading in the high-$77,000 range as the market digested last week’s sell-off, which pushed BTC to a monthly close near $78,600 after a near 10% decline in January.

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Trading activity picked up as volatility increased. Futures markets saw elevated turnover while leverage was reduced following last week’s liquidations, suggesting a more defensive stance

CME Bitcoin futures are regulated contracts mainly used by institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional traders. Because the exchange closes over the weekend, prices can diverge from the spot market, which trades around the clock. When futures reopen, large gaps can appear if Bitcoin has moved sharply.

These gaps often influence short-term trading behavior. Many traders watch closely to see whether the price moves back toward the previous close, a pattern that can drive additional volatility in the days that follow.

January decline shifts market tone

Bitcoin began January on a strong footing, opening in the high-$80,000 range and climbing toward the mid-to-high $90,000s in the first half of the month. Momentum faded by mid-January, and the price began trading in a wide range as sellers gained control.

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By the final week, pressure intensified. BTC fell from the high-$80,000s and closed the month near $78,621, marking one of its weakest January performances in more than a decade.

According to an analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, the late-January drop was driven mainly by shrinking liquidity and heavy liquidations rather than macroeconomic news. The firm said excessive leverage in thin market conditions led to rapid position closures and a sharp drop in prices, with more than $1.3 billion in forced liquidations over two days.

Market analyst PlanB said January’s close confirmed a broader bearish shift. He pointed to the monthly relative strength index falling below 50 and noted that long-term averages are drifting toward the mid-$50,000 range. Based on past cycles, he said Bitcoin could revisit these levels, though he added that the current downturn may be more limited than previous bear markets.

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Not all prominent investors share this view. Robert Kiyosaki said on X that he sees the recent decline as a buying opportunity and plans to increase his exposure to Bitcoin, gold, and silver during periods of market stress.

Bitcoin price short term outlook

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains under pressure after failing to hold above the $80,000–$82,000 zone. The drop into the high-$70,000s has broken recent support and kept the short-term trend pointed lower.

Price is trading below key moving averages, which are now acting as resistance. Rebounds toward the $84,000–$85,000 area are likely to face selling interest, especially with the CME gap still open.

Support is clustered around $77,000–$78,000. A prolonged break below this range might pave the way for a more significant decline into the low $70,000s. To stabilize the structure and reduce downward pressure, Bitcoin would need to recover the mid-$80,000s on a daily close.

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Crypto World

Ripple-linked token flips BNB as open interest toward pre-crash level

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(CoinDesk)

XRP just reclaimed a ranking it hasn’t held in weeks, and the derivatives market suggests traders are positioning for more.

The token surged to $1.53 on Tuesday, up 11% on the week, overtaking BNB to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap at $93.4 billion. The move broke through $1.40 resistance, per CoinDesk analytics, with trading volume exploding 125% to $3.22 billion.

Coinglass data shows XRP open interest on Binance has climbed to 353.49 million XRP as of March 17, up from 222.79 million on Oct. 24, 2025, when XRP was trading at $2.39. That’s a 59% increase in open interest while the price is 37% lower. New leveraged positions are building into the recovery rather than unwinding, which is a fundamentally different setup from the deleveraging that dominated January and February.

The Binance OI chart shows the full arc. Open interest peaked above 400 million XRP in September 2025, collapsed during the October crash that took the price from $3.65 to below $2, and spent the next four months slowly rebuilding.

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(CoinDesk)

The current 353 million is approaching but hasn’t yet matched those pre-crash levels, which means the market has room to add leverage before hitting the concentration that preceded the last wipeout.

Traders will likely now monitor whether the $1.50-$1.60 zone holds or becomes another failed breakout in a token that has been full of them since October. Open interest building into the move gives it more structural support than previous attempts, but XRP approaching pre-crash leverage levels at 58% below the pre-crash price is a setup that works until it doesn’t.

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows See 6-Day Streak

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows See 6-Day Streak

US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their sixth day of inflows on Monday as Bitcoin rose over 12% over the period, marking the longest streak of fresh capital into the ETFs since October last year. 

Data from Farside Investors shows Bitcoin ETFs raked in $199.4 million of net inflows on Monday. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led with $139.4 million and $64.5 million in inflows, respectively.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF tallied inflows of $2.8 million and $2.1 million, while the VanEck Bitcoin ETF and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF saw outflows of $6.3 million and $3.1 million, respectively.

This brings the total net inflows since March 9 to $962.8 million, coinciding with Bitcoin (BTC) rising 12.5% from $65,960 to $74,250 over the period. 

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The inflow streak follows a much larger nine-day run between September and October 2025, which saw Bitcoin products tally nearly $6 billion worth of inflows.

Bitcoin was significantly higher at the time, hitting an all-time high of $126,080 during that stretch. 

Flow data for the US spot Bitcoin ETFs in March. Source: Farside Investors

The recent rise in Bitcoin ETF inflows and the cryptocurrency’s spot price comes amid ongoing uncertainty between the US and Iran and volatility in the oil markets.

Rumors of progress have helped Bitcoin

However, blockchain analytics platform Santiment said rumors swirling about progress being made by the US, Iran and Israel have been a contributing factor to Bitcoin soaring above the $74,400 mark for the first time in six weeks.

“This bullish momentum has been enough to push FOMO to its highest level since January 2nd,” Santiment noted.

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Related: Crypto Biz: Circle stock defies Wall Street and digital asset selloff 

“In spite of global uncertainty at the moment, traders are once again seeing crypto as a sector with rise potential in the coming weeks and months.”

Santiment data shows Bitcoin FOMO (fear of missing out) is at its highest point since Jan. 2. Source: Santiment

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index score, a measure of Bitcoin and crypto market sentiment, also increased five points to 28 on Tuesday — escaping the “Extreme Fear” zone for the first time since late January.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets