Coinbase stock holds $163 support before Q2 earnings

Coinbase stock traded near $164 on Wednesday as investors weighed weak Q2 revenue expectations against Rosenblatt’s $240 price target and growth in newer business lines.

Coinbase stock consolidates ahead of earnings

Coinbase (COIN) shares traded at $164.43 on July 29, down 2.07% during the session after moving between $163.04 and $169.69. The stock has stabilized since falling below $140 in late June, but buyers have yet to establish a clear upward trend.

The company will publish its second-quarter results after the market closes on July 30. Coinbase has also scheduled a question-and-answer session for 2 p.m. Pacific Time that day, according to its investor relations announcement.

Wall Street expects revenue to reach approximately $1.31 billion for the April-to-June period. That would represent a 12.8% decline from the $1.50 billion reported in the second quarter of 2025. It would also fall below the $1.41 billion generated during Q1 2026.

Lower crypto trading activity remains the main earnings risk. Coinbase depends partly on transaction fees, leaving its quarterly results exposed to changes in digital asset prices, volatility and retail participation.

Rosenblatt sees Coinbase reaching $240

Rosenblatt maintained its Buy rating and $240 price target before the report. That target implies roughly 46% upside from the stock’s current price.

The investment firm expects Coinbase’s core crypto trading business to remain under pressure but sees derivatives and prediction markets becoming more meaningful revenue sources. Its target is based on 25 times the firm’s estimate for Coinbase’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2027.

That view reflects Coinbase’s attempt to reduce its reliance on spot trading fees. Investors will therefore look beyond total revenue and examine whether newer products can offset weakness in the company’s core exchange business.

JPMorgan has taken a more cautious position. The bank recently cut its Coinbase price target from $283 to $196 after lowering earnings estimates linked to the company’s USDC revenue-sharing arrangement with Hyperliquid.

Under that structure, Coinbase can classify USDC held on Hyperliquid as on-platform balances but returns 90% of the related reserve income to the decentralized exchange. JPMorgan argued that the agreement could weaken the economics of Coinbase’s stablecoin business, according to a previous crypto.news report.

COIN price lacks a clear trend

The daily chart shows COIN trading between two short-term moving averages. Price at $164.43 sits below the 20-day simple moving average at $165.90 but remains above the 50-day SMA at $162.97.

That positioning points to consolidation rather than a confirmed breakout. A close above $165.90 would be an initial sign of improving short-term momentum, while the $169–$170 area forms the next resistance zone.

A stronger move could bring the 100-day SMA at $178.81 into focus. That level has been falling and remains the main medium-term barrier. Reclaiming it would place COIN on firmer technical ground, although the stock would still trade well below its 200-day SMA at $214.47.

The average directional index stands at 10.22. ADX readings below 20 generally indicate that neither buyers nor sellers control a strong trend. The low reading also suggests earnings could provide the catalyst needed for COIN to move out of its recent range.

Key Coinbase stock levels to watch

Immediate support sits at the 50-day SMA of $162.97. A daily close below that line could expose the $155 region, where buyers returned several times during July.

Further selling would place the $145–$150 zone at risk. That area includes the late-June reversal range, while the June low near $139 remains the larger downside level.

On the bullish side, COIN must first break through $166 and then clear $170. A move above both levels could support a test of $178.81. Earnings above expectations or evidence of stronger derivatives, stablecoin and prediction-market revenue could help drive that scenario.

Rosenblatt’s $240 target remains more ambitious. COIN would need to recover the 100-day and 200-day averages before that level becomes technically viable.

CLARITY Act remains a post-earnings risk

US regulatory developments could influence Coinbase shares after the earnings-driven volatility fades. The CLARITY Act is intended to define the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing digital assets.

Lower expectations for the bill’s passage could limit the regulatory upside previously priced into US crypto stocks. A delay would preserve uncertainty for exchanges, token issuers and institutional investors considering broader participation in the market.

Coinbase could benefit if lawmakers establish clearer rules and bring more activity onshore. However, its immediate direction will depend on Q2 revenue, trading volumes, stablecoin income and management’s outlook for the rest of 2026.