Coinbase’s (COIN) weak quarter leaves Wall Street split on timing of a recovery

Coinbase said it captured a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume during the quarter, its third consecutive quarterly gain. Analysts at Benchmark, Oppenheimer, Clear Street and Cantor all highlighted the figure as evidence that trading activity is consolidating onto larger regulated exchanges during periods of market stress.

Several also pointed to derivatives, where Coinbase reported flat trading volumes despite management saying the broader derivatives market declined by double digits.

Diversification shows progress, but isn’t enough

Analysts viewed Coinbase’s push beyond spot trading as encouraging, even though the newer businesses remain too small to offset weakness in core trading revenue.

The company is trying to diversify through prediction markets, derivatives, subscriptions, stablecoins and its Base blockchain. Prediction markets surpassed a $100 million annualized revenue run rate, while Coinbase One topped one million paid subscribers. Its Circle partnership for USDC also renewed on existing terms, removing a key concern for investors.

Still, there was broad agreement that diversification has not yet become large enough to replace lost trading revenue.

Clear Street noted new businesses continue gaining traction but remain “optionality” rather than meaningful earnings contributors. Barclays was more critical, arguing prediction markets and retail derivatives “did not” provide the boost they offered last quarter. Compass Point similarly said emerging businesses “barely moved the needle.”