Commodity Currencies on the Rise: Market Focus Shifts to US and Canadian Data

Commodity-linked currencies continue to strengthen, while the US dollar remains under pressure amid easing geopolitical tensions and a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets. Reports of a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran have helped stabilise sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets, supporting currencies sensitive to the global economic cycle, including the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Another factor weighing on the dollar is expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy, which remain highly sensitive to incoming macroeconomic data. Lower US Treasury yields and ongoing uncertainty بشأن inflation dynamics are reinforcing cautious market positioning. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to upcoming US data releases, including inflation, consumer sentiment, and business activity indicators, which may reshape interest rate expectations.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD continues its upward move after breaking out of the 0.6840–0.6960 range. The next upside targets are the yearly highs in the 0.7160–0.7180 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the pair falls and holds below 0.7020.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core CPI
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan inflation expectations
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): University of Michigan consumer sentiment

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is trending lower, continuing the move driven by Canadian dollar strength. The downside breakout reflects a shift in favour of commodity currencies, supported by both the broader macro backdrop and expectations ahead of key Canadian data, including the employment report.

Technical analysis suggests a potential decline towards the 1.3750–1.3780 range, as several reversal patterns have formed on the daily timeframe. The bearish outlook would be invalidated if the pair rises and holds above 1.3860.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada unemployment rate
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): average hourly wages (permanent employees)
• Today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions in crude oil

The strength in commodity currencies is being driven by a combination of easing geopolitical risks, a weaker US dollar, and rising demand for risk assets. Breakouts in AUD/USD and USD/CAD reinforce the likelihood of trend continuation; however, upcoming US and Canadian data remain a key source of uncertainty. Depending on the outcome, the current momentum may either extend or shift into a phase of consolidation.

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