Crude Oil Skyrockets to $119 Per Barrel Amid Iran-Israel Conflict and Hormuz Blockade

TLDR

• Both Brent crude and WTI peaked at $119.50 per barrel during Monday trading before retreating from their highest prices since mid-2022.
• Israeli forces targeted Iranian oil infrastructure this weekend, while Tehran retaliated with strikes on Gulf state oil facilities.
• Tehran has implemented a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting approximately 20% of global oil shipments.
• Finance ministers from G7 nations are convening Monday to evaluate a coordinated emergency oil reserve deployment.
• Gasoline futures in the United States jumped more than 10%, approaching four-year peak levels above $3.00 per gallon.

Crude oil markets experienced dramatic volatility Monday following unprecedented Israeli military action against Iranian petroleum infrastructure. The escalation, marking the first such strikes since hostilities commenced in early March, drove both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures to an intraday peak of $119.50 per barrel—price levels unseen since mid-2022.

Market prices moderated by midday, with Brent settling at $106.80 per barrel and WTI trading at $102.79, retreating from overnight highs. The decline followed a Financial Times exclusive reporting that G7 finance ministers scheduled an emergency Monday session to evaluate releasing strategic petroleum reserves.

The planned discussions are anticipated to include coordination efforts with the International Energy Agency. At least three G7 member states, the United States among them, have publicly indicated willingness to participate in a collaborative reserve deployment.

Oil markets have experienced gains exceeding 25% since the Iran-Israel conflict erupted in early March. Weekend developments intensified the rally as trading resumed Sunday evening.

Israeli military operations targeted petroleum storage infrastructure in Tehran on Saturday. Tehran’s response included drone strikes against a Bahraini oil refinery, the Wall Street Journal confirmed.

Strait of Hormuz Now Effectively Blocked

Iranian forces have also initiated attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint, responsible for transporting roughly 20% of worldwide oil demand, now sees virtually no commercial traffic.

OCBC analysts noted that “tail risks from a sustained Hormuz stoppage remain in play,” drawing parallels to the magnitude of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid acknowledged the G7 reserve release could provide relief, though he emphasized “the duration and intensity of the conflict will still be far and away the most important driver.”

Both Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates announced production cuts over the weekend, following similar moves by Iraq in recent days. Storage capacity limitations stemming from supply chain disruptions are compelling producers to reduce output.

In an unusual development, Saudi Arabia has begun offering crude on spot markets—a signal Riyadh is attempting to address supply shortfalls created by the regional conflict.

Trump Warns Prices Will Stay High Short-Term

President Donald Trump addressed the oil price spike Sunday evening. He indicated prices would likely maintain elevated levels temporarily but predicted they would “drop rapidly” following resolution of the Iranian conflict.

Trump has consistently minimized concerns about rising domestic fuel costs, stating to Reuters that the Iranian military campaign remains his administration’s top priority.

Gasoline futures in the United States surged over 10% Monday, breaching $3.00 per gallon and approaching their highest valuation since mid-2022.

Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar characterized the Iranian infrastructure bombing as evidence of “a shift in war strategy,” cautioning that targeting essential infrastructure elevates both humanitarian and economic consequences.

In OCBC’s moderately severe projection, assuming partial shipping resumes under naval protection, Brent crude could sustain pricing near $100 per barrel through the middle of the year.