Key Takeaways

• The Catalyst: Trump’s claims of “plummeting inflation” and economic turnaround fueled a 3.5% relief rally across risk assets.
• The Level: Bitcoin rejected immediate resistance at $66,000 but held support above $64,500, creating a tight consolidation range.
• The Setup: Traders are eyeing Nvidia earnings Wednesday as the critical volume trigger to confirm or invalidate the bounce.

TLDR:

• Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator filed a lawsuit against Jane Street in Manhattan in February 2026.
  
• Jane Street allegedly dumped 85M UST minutes after Terraform pulled 150M UST liquidity from Curve Finance.
  
• A private chat called “Bryce’s Secret” allegedly gave Jane Street insider knowledge before the Terra-Luna collapse.
  
• Jane Street reportedly avoided over $200M in losses while retail investors suffered catastrophic and unrecoverable financial damage.

Jane Street, the prominent trading firm, faces a lawsuit filed by Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator in Manhattan.

The February 2026 complaint accuses Jane Street of orchestrating the collapse of TerraUSD (UST) and LUNA in May 2022.

The event wiped out approximately $40 billion within days. It also triggered a broader crypto market downturn lasting well into 2023. Jane Street has denied all allegations, calling the lawsuit “baseless.”

The Alleged Timeline Behind the Terra Collapse

The lawsuit outlines a specific sequence of events from May 2022. According to the complaint, Terraform quietly withdrew 150 million UST from the Curve liquidity pool.

Minutes after that withdrawal, Jane Street allegedly dumped 85 million UST into the market. That move reportedly triggered immediate panic among investors and traders across the ecosystem.

The panic then accelerated UST’s loss of its one-dollar peg. Once UST depegged, LUNA’s mint-and-burn mechanism caused it to hyperinflate rapidly and uncontrollably.

This is how the $40 billion wipeout unfolded within just a few days. The lawsuit argues the sequence was not coincidental but rather a coordinated effort.

The complaint further claims Jane Street had access to insider information before the event. A former Terraform intern, who later joined Jane Street as a trader, allegedly shared critical details.

This exchange reportedly occurred through a private group chat named “Bryce’s Secret.” This alleged insider access forms a central pillar of the legal argument presented.

Because of this reported advance knowledge, Jane Street allegedly positioned itself ahead of the collapse. The firm is accused of avoiding over $200 million in losses as a result.

Additionally, the complaint claims Jane Street profited during the meltdown. Meanwhile, retail investors absorbed devastating and largely unrecoverable losses.

Broader Market Fallout and New Questions Raised

The Terra collapse did not remain isolated to LUNA and UST alone. The event created a domino effect that spread rapidly across the broader crypto market.

Several major firms with exposure to Terra faced severe liquidity crises shortly after. This chain reaction contributed directly to what became known as the 2022 crypto winter.

The lawsuit has also reignited ongoing debates about institutional manipulation in crypto markets. Analysts and observers began drawing comparisons to other unexplained market events.

Some pointed specifically to the October 10 crash, questioning whether similar tactics were deployed then. The complaint, however, does not formally allege Jane Street’s involvement in that separate event.

Jane Street has responded firmly, publicly denying every allegation contained in the lawsuit. The firm has not addressed specific claims surrounding “Bryce’s Secret” or the insider trading accusations.

Legal proceedings are currently active in Manhattan federal court. The outcome could establish an important precedent for institutional accountability in crypto.

This lawsuit stands as one of the most serious legal actions linked to the 2022 Terra collapse. It places direct scrutiny on institutional trading conduct during periods of extreme crypto market volatility. The case is expected to progress through federal court in the coming months.

Bitcoin dropped about 1.5% in hours after Trump skipped Bitcoin, validating Schiff’s selloff warning.

Gold advocate and Bitcoin (BTC) critic Peter Schiff predicted a sell-off in Bitcoin prices regardless of whether U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the cryptocurrency in his State of the Union address, according to statements posted on social media.

Schiff stated that the recent recovery in Bitcoin stemmed from market expectations that Trump would mention the cryptocurrency in his speech. The gold advocate predicted that if the President made no mention of Bitcoin in the address, selling pressure would occur.

Schiff further stated that even if Trump mentioned Bitcoin, a decline would still be expected, arguing that expectations were already priced into the market and the speech could trigger profit-taking, leading to a price drop. The analyst suggested that individuals close to Trump who purchased Bitcoin in anticipation of the announcement might sell following any mention.

President Trump delivered his State of the Union address without directly mentioning Bitcoin, causing short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, according to market data.

The address covered topics including tariff policy, tax cuts, the response to the Iran nuclear issue, and approval of a defense budget. No mention of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, was made during the speech.

Bitcoin had risen to higher levels before the speech, in line with market expectations based on Trump’s previous statements supporting cryptocurrency. Following the speech, profit-taking led to selling and the price declined, though the drop was smaller than Schiff had anticipated, according to market observers.

In a separate social media post, Schiff described Bitcoin’s multi-year price increase as a bursting bubble and stated the cryptocurrency’s price could fall significantly.

The euro has moved into a phase of correction and consolidation ahead of key macroeconomic releases. In EUR/USD, a technical pullback is unfolding following the previous decline, while EUR/CAD continues a more extended corrective move within its medium-term structure. Market activity is easing as traders await important data from the euro area, the United States and Canada, which could determine the next directional move.

In the euro area, the focus is on Germany’s GDP figures, the GfK consumer climate index and business activity indicators. These releases will help assess the resilience of the region’s largest economy amid a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Weak data would increase pressure on the euro, while more solid readings could support attempts at stabilisation.

In the United States, investors are monitoring developments in the mortgage market, upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials and oil inventory data. Trade policy also remains a source of uncertainty. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a temporary global tariff of 10% for 150 days, with the administration not ruling out a further increase to 15%. The postponement of harsher measures has slightly eased tensions, yet ongoing trade risks continue to influence currency markets, including the euro and commodity-linked currencies.

EUR/USD

After the resumption of the downward move in EUR/USD last week, buyers managed to find support near 1.1740. A retest of this level and a rebound towards 1.1840 helped establish the boundaries of the current sideways range. Technical analysis points to consolidative trading conditions. A sustained move above 1.1840 could pave the way for gains towards 1.1900–1.1920. A break below 1.1740 may trigger a fresh bearish impulse.

Key events for EUR/USD:
– today at 09:00 (GMT+2): Germany GDP;
– today at 09:00 (GMT+2): Germany GfK Consumer Climate Index;
– today at 16:30 (GMT+2): speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin.

EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD has been trading sideways for more than a month. The pair is testing 1.6180 as resistance and 1.6080 as support. A break above the upper boundary could lead to further gains towards 1.6200–1.6230. Conversely, a move below 1.6080 may open the way for a retest of the psychological 1.6000 level.

Key events for EUR/CAD:
– today at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canadian corporate profits;
– today at 17:30 (GMT+2): US crude oil inventories;
– tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canadian wholesale sales.

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Shiba Inu is back in focus after on-chain data showed a large holder moving hundreds of billions of tokens to a centralized exchange, raising fresh concerns about potential sell pressure.

According to data from Arkham Intelligence, a whale address deposited roughly 370 billion SHIB to exchange wallets in a series of transactions over the past 24 hours. The transfers, routed to both Binance and Bitget deposit addresses, totaled several million dollars in value.

Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as a sign that a holder may be preparing to sell, as tokens moved off self-custody and onto trading platforms increase immediate circulating supply.

While it is not yet confirmed whether the whale intends to liquidate, the timing comes as SHIB continues to trade in a broader downtrend, adding weight to bearish sentiment.

Shiba Inu price action and key levels

On the daily chart, SHIB is currently trading near $0.00000601, consolidating after a prolonged slide from January highs near the $0.00000900 region.

Price recently bounced from the $0.00000580–$0.00000590 support zone, which has acted as a short-term floor. A decisive breakdown below this region could expose the next psychological support around $0.00000550, followed by deeper support near $0.00000500.

On the upside, immediate resistance sits near $0.00000640, where recent daily highs were rejected. Above that, stronger resistance is clustered around $0.00000700, a level that capped the mid-February rebound.

Bulls would need a sustained move above $0.00000700 to shift short-term structure back in their favor.

Momentum indicators show tentative stabilization but no strong bullish reversal yet. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains slightly negative, though red histogram bars are shrinking, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening but not fully reversed.

The Money Flow Index (MFI 14) sits around 44, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating modest capital outflows and a lack of strong buying pressure.

Together, the indicators point to consolidation rather than immediate breakdown but they also fail to confirm a bullish shift.

If the 370B SHIB deposit translates into aggressive selling, pressure on the $0.00000580 support zone could intensify. A breakdown would likely accelerate downside momentum. However, if support holds and exchange inflows do not materialize into sustained sell volume, SHIB could remain range-bound between $0.00000580 and $0.00000640 in the near term.

For now, whale activity adds uncertainty but the chart suggests bears still hold the broader structural advantage unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

The market for Bitcoin-holder Strategy (MSTR) shares is among the most “heavily shorted,” a market slang term for dominance of bearish plays, according to FactSet and Goldman Sachs data. Yet the positioning may not reflect investor bias toward a continued price crash, per some observers.

According to the report released last week, bearish short bets on Strategy (MSTR) equaled 14% of its market capitalization of $34 billion at the time, making it the most shorted stock by that measure. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) ranked fourth at 11% of its market cap. The report tracked positioning in stocks with market capitalization of over $25 billion.

This comes as Strategy is sitting on roughly a $7 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings. That figure, however, has no impact on the stock in the near term. Strategy began adding BTC to its balance sheet in 2020 and has since gobbled up 717,722 BTC, worth $47 billion. As of writing, its market cap stood closer at $42 billion, despite the stock falling 20% year-to-date.

One explanation for the elevated short interest offered by analysts is the basis trade – a strategy that seeks to profit from the price difference between two related markets. In this context, traders may bought bitcoin spot ETFs, like BlackRock’s IBIT, while simultaneously shorting the MSTR stock. to profit from a narrowing of MSTR’s premium to its BTC holdings narrows, plus any funding from paired futures if layered on, while staying market neutral.

“I suspect a lot of this short interest is still MSTR / BTC basis trade. Jane Street, in particular, has recently acquired a conspicuously large IBIT position,” Brian Brookshire, specialist in bitcoin treasury companies, said.

According to recent 13F filings, Jane Street purchased more than 7 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust. It also held a large position in MSTR.

If Brookshire’s instincts hold, Jane Street’s purchases of IBIT could be a part of the carry/basis trade, paired with short positions in MSTR.

So far this year, that trade would have not worked. The MSTR-to-IBIT ratio is up about 12%, meaning MSTR has outperformed IBIT on the downside. MSTR is down 20% year to date, while IBIT has fallen 27%.

Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are diverging from broader crypto ETF trends this month. While demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum products has shown signs of cooling, Solana-linked funds have maintained steady inflows.

The shift comes amid heightened volatility in digital asset markets. With macro uncertainty weighing on investor sentiment, ETF flows may be offering a signal of where institutional capital is positioning in the short term.

Solana ETF Streak Stands Out in Volatile Crypto Market

According to data from SoSoValue, Solana ETFs have recorded consecutive inflows since February 10. As of February 24, the products have logged only three red days this month. Overall, the ETFs have pulled in $30.33 million. 

The streak stands out against the more uneven performance seen in larger crypto ETFs during the same period.

Bitcoin ETFs have posted mixed results in February. Inflows were recorded on seven trading days this month. Ethereum ETFs have followed a similar pattern, reflecting inconsistent demand rather than sustained accumulation. 

Despite those positive sessions, cumulative flows remain deeply negative. So far this month, Bitcoin ETFs’ net outflows stand at $939.94 million. In addition, Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows of $490.58 million.

When compared to other altcoin products, Solana’s performance also appears relatively stronger. XRP-linked ETFs have experienced outflows on three trading sessions this month while recording zero flows on four days. 

Although the number of positive sessions is comparable, the consistency of Solana’s streak since mid-February remains notable.

Nonetheless, it is important to contextualize the data. In absolute dollar terms, inflows into Solana ETFs remain smaller than those seen in Bitcoin products. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to command the majority of institutional crypto exposure and overall capital allocation. However, consistency in flows can indicate relative resilience in demand during periods of broader uncertainty.

The steady inflows into Solana products suggest that some investors are maintaining or selectively increasing exposure to higher-beta assets, even as flagship crypto ETFs experience uneven demand. Still, the divergence may reflect short-term capital rotation rather than a structural shift in institutional positioning.

SOL Price Remains Under Pressure 

Despite the ETF inflows, Solana’s price performance has continued to reflect broader market weakness. Like most major digital assets, SOL has trended downward over the past month, declining 32.8%.

The altcoin saw a modest recovery today, rising more than 7% as total crypto market capitalization expanded by approximately $32 billion. At press time, SOL was trading at $82.15.

However, technical analysts remain cautious on the asset’s near-term outlook. Market commentator Alejandro suggested that Solana’s next downside target could be $45.

Whale Factor described the token as entering a high-probability “make or break” zone on the 4-hour chart. According to the analysis, SOL’s wedge formation is “reaching maximum exhaustion,” signaling a potential volatility squeeze at a critical inflection point.

The analyst outlined two possible scenarios:

“Bull Case: Clean break and retest of $82 targets the $97-100 macro resistance. Bear Case: Failure to hold the $78 support level opens the door for a retest of $68.”

Whether Solana will extend its recovery or face renewed downside pressure remains to be seen.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to reclaim $65,000 as support into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as rumors swirled around US institutional pressure.

Key points:

• Bitcoin bounces 2.5% as talk turns to alleged selling pressure from Wall Street trading company Jane Street.

• Jane Street rebuts claims of crypto market manipulation during the 2022 bear market.

• “Razor thin” order books boost BTC price volatility.

Bitcoiners debate Jane Street “10am price slam”

Data from TradingView tracked a BTC price rebound, taking BTC/USD to $66,300 on Bitstamp before the pair consolidated.

Daily price gains remained at more than 2% at the time of writing, while crypto market participants became increasingly interested in potential deliberate BTC price suppression.

A theory circulating on social media revolved around secretive quantitative investment firm Jane Street, now subject to legal action by defunct crypto company Terraform Labs.

Coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10am Eastern time daily, it alleged, provided the main impetus for months of BTC price downside beginning in October 2025.

What Happened Today:

>Jane Street was exposed for massive manipulation of the crypto market and for being behind the TerraLuna collapse.

>An insider leaked that they were forced to shut down their trading algos.

> no 10am price slam for the first time.

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>8pm, Bitcoin…

— AMCrypto (@AMCryptoAlex) February 25, 2026

Amid the ongoing legal proceedings, Jane Street may have been forced to suspend its trading strategy, leaving the market to adjust higher.

The Terraform Labs complaint makes specific reference to “market manipulation” that impacted crypto throughout 2022, the year in which Bitcoin put in its last bear market bottom of $15,600 in Q4.

Jane Street told Cointelegraph that the accusations were “baseless, opportunistic claims.”

The 10am argument, meanwhile, failed to convince many. Crypto YouTuber Wise Advice was among them, suggesting that the theory was too simplistic to be valid.

🚨 Everyone on CT right now:

“Jane Street got sued.”
“10AM manipulation stopped.”
“ $BTC finally free.”

Do you really think they’re that stupid?

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You’re talking about Jane Street.

A top quant firm.
And they supposedly:

• Ran a visible daily pattern
• Let everyone track it…

— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) February 25, 2026

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BTC price versus “razor thin” liquidity

Commenting on the latest BTC price move, traders remained cautious.

Related: Bitcoin ETF sell-off is ‘purification’ of bull case, investor says

“$BTC is facing major resistance at $66k – from both the local range lows and the 4h trend,” trader Jelle wrote in his latest analysis on X. 

“Flipping that could spark short-term relief, but until that happens, the trend is clear. Don’t fight it.”

Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, said that a “razor thin order book” on exchanges had contributed to the price rebound.

Overhead sell liquidity, he told X followers, had been pulled in advance of US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

Looks like we got a roof pull just before Trump’s State of the Union Address, and $BTC price ripped through a razor thin order book. pic.twitter.com/bgBtwg6aaZ

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) February 25, 2026

The 24-hour crypto liquidations totaled $333 million at the time of writing, per data from CoinGlass, with shorts accounting for $213 million of that figure.