Crypto World
Crypto market cap dips $2T from peak as investor fear rises
The crypto market is facing renewed pressure as prices and investor confidence continue to weaken.
Summary
- The total crypto market cap has fallen from $4.38T to about $2.2T.
- Heavy liquidations and derivatives unwinds are driving pressure.
- Analysts warn that volatility may stay high in the near term.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen by about $2 trillion from its October 2025 peak of $4.38 trillion, according to data from CoinGecko. As of early February, the market is valued between $2.1 trillion and $2.3 trillion.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading close to $65,000 after briefly falling to about $60,000 on Feb. 5. The largest cryptocurrency is now down almost 50% from its peak of $126,080 in October 2025.
Large liquidations, exchange-traded fund withdrawals, and reduced risk appetite in financial markets have all contributed to the recent decline. This sharp pullback has been matched by a collapse in market sentiment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, compiled by Alternative, fell three points in the past day to 9, its lowest reading since June 2022. The index tracks factors such as volatility, momentum, and social sentiment. A score at this level points to deep fear among traders and long-term investors alike.
Periods like this are often linked to heavy selling in leveraged markets. When prices fall quickly, margin calls force traders to close positions. These forced exits add more pressure and can push prices even lower. As a result, losses tend to spread across major tokens in a short period.
Liquidation pressure and institutional selling
The current sell-off has been one of the most intense since late 2022. Some market trackers estimate that more than $1 trillion in crypto value has been erased over the past month alone.
Jamie Coutts, a crypto analyst at Real Vision, wrote on X that signs of capitulation are becoming stronger. He noted that Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility Index has climbed to 88.55, close to the level seen during the FTX collapse. At the same time, Coinbase recorded daily trading volume of $3.34 billion, one of the highest in its history.
Coutts also pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index has dropped to 15.64, below levels seen during the March 2020 market crash. According to him, this combination of margin calls and forced selling is typical during major downturns. He added that capitulation often unfolds over several days or weeks rather than in a single event.
Institutional activity is adding to the pressure. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost said in a Feb. 6 report that the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned deeply negative.
This means that Bitcoin is trading at lower prices on Coinbase, a platform that is often used by professional and institutional investors, than on Binance, which has a larger user base of retail investors. Large investors are typically selling more when this gap widens to the downside.
The current reading is the weakest seen so far this year, suggesting that institutional demand remains soft.
Uncertain outlook amid market stress
The wider financial environment is also affecting digital assets. Tighter financial conditions, changing interest rate expectations, and geopolitical concerns have all contributed to a decline in appetite for riskier investments.
Technology stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies have all faced renewed selling in recent weeks. Traders are hesitant to take on big positions in this kind of environment. Because there is less liquidity, price fluctuations are more severe and unpredictable. Rapid changes in either direction can be triggered by even minor shifts in data or sentiment.
Some analysts say extreme fear levels can sometimes appear near market bottoms. Past cycles show that strong rebounds have followed periods of deep pessimism. Still, others warn that stabilization may take time, especially if selling from funds and institutions continues.
Crypto World
ARK Invest’s Latest Moves: Wood Increases Joby Aviation and Robinhood (HOOD) Stakes, Exits Roku (ROKU)
TLDR
- On March 6, ARK Invest liquidated 32,304 Roku shares valued at $3.17 million, extending its recent pattern of position reduction
- The investment firm acquired 289,417 Joby Aviation shares totaling $2.78 million following the electric air mobility company’s improved Q4 financial results
- ARK purchased 19,206 Robinhood Markets shares for $1.55 million, capitalizing on a 4% decline in the trading platform’s stock price
- JD Logistics received $1.48 million in new investment from ARK as the logistics stock experienced approximately 22% gains on Friday
- Portfolio reductions included Iridium Communications ($2.08 million) and 10x Genomics ($1.62 million) divestments
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest executed multiple portfolio adjustments on Friday, March 6, 2026, as financial markets wrapped up a volatile trading week. Investor sentiment remained guarded amid escalating U.S.–Iran geopolitical tensions and fresh employment data.
The firm’s daily trading disclosures revealed strategic position changes spanning fintech, technology, and aerospace sectors.
The day’s most significant transaction involved a divestment. ARK liquidated 32,304 Roku shares distributed across several funds, generating approximately $3.17 million in proceeds. This represents a continuation of Roku sales executed earlier in the week, indicating a strategic downsizing of the streaming platform position.
Additionally, ARK divested 86,890 Iridium Communications shares for approximately $2.08 million. Despite the satellite communications provider’s presence in ARK’s investment portfolio, Friday’s transaction signals a strategic retreat from the position.
The asset manager also decreased its 10x Genomics exposure, offloading 75,007 shares worth roughly $1.62 million.
ARK Boosts Aviation and Financial Technology Holdings
Among acquisitions, Joby Aviation emerged as the headline purchase. ARK secured 289,417 shares valued at approximately $2.78 million across its ARKQ and ARKX investment vehicles. The vertical takeoff and landing aircraft developer recently unveiled Q4 2025 financial performance, reporting a per-share loss of $0.14. This represented meaningful improvement from the previous year’s $0.23 loss.
Wood has consistently accumulated Joby shares in the aftermath of these earnings disclosures.
ARK expanded its Robinhood Markets holdings through the acquisition of 19,206 shares totaling approximately $1.55 million. This strategic purchase coincided with a roughly 4% decrease in Robinhood’s share price on Friday. The transactions were distributed among ARK’s ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF investment funds.
Additional March 6 Acquisitions
JD Logistics represented another notable purchase. ARK accumulated 1,129,547 shares for approximately $1.48 million via its ARKX fund. The Chinese logistics provider’s equity surged roughly 22% during Friday’s trading session.
ARK also secured 10,600 DraftKings shares valued at around $269,876.
Supplementary acquisitions encompassed Cerus Corp, Canton Strategic Holdings, and GeneDx Holdings positions.
The firm purchased 84,004 Cerus shares for $170,948, acquired 42,500 Canton Strategic shares for $191,250, and bought 9,113 GeneDx shares for $747,266.
Standard BioTools represented another complete exit, with ARK selling 397,382 shares generating $405,329 in proceeds. ARK additionally reduced its Nextdoor Holdings stake, disposing of 23,100 shares for $38,577.
These portfolio modifications were published through ARK’s routine daily disclosure filing on March 6, 2026.
Crypto World
Bloom Energy (BE) Stock Plunges 15% as Oracle-OpenAI Texas Data Center Project Gets Scrapped
Key Takeaways
- Bloom Energy (BE) shares plummeted 15.5% following the cancellation of Oracle and OpenAI’s Texas AI data center project
- The sharp decline erased gains from the previous month, where BE had risen 11.83%
- The selloff intensified during afternoon trading after Bloomberg broke the story
- BE’s valuation metrics remain elevated with a Forward P/E of 119.41 compared to the industry’s 18.47
- Wall Street maintains a Hold rating on BE, while Q1 earnings are projected to surge 200% year-over-year
Shares of Bloom Energy experienced a dramatic selloff on March 6, 2026, tumbling 15.5% after Bloomberg published a report revealing that Oracle and OpenAI have abandoned their proposed AI data center expansion project in Texas. The announcement caught investors off guard, as many had viewed data center infrastructure growth as a critical catalyst for the fuel cell manufacturer.
The steep decline wiped out recent gains for the stock. Over the preceding month, BE had advanced 11.83%, significantly outperforming the Oils-Energy sector’s 7.17% increase and contrasting sharply with the S&P 500’s modest 0.15% decline.
Market observers noted that the bulk of selling pressure materialized during afternoon trading, indicating that Bloomberg’s report hit the wires mid-session and sparked immediate investor flight.
Prior to this development, Bloom Energy had benefited from growing enthusiasm around AI infrastructure buildout. Given the substantial power requirements of data centers, many investors viewed fuel cell technology providers like BE as prime beneficiaries of this secular trend.
The cancellation of Oracle and OpenAI’s Texas facility stripped away a significant element of this investment thesis, at least for now.
Fundamental Outlook Still Promising
Despite Thursday’s sharp price action, Bloom Energy’s near-term earnings outlook remains robust. Wall Street analysts project Q1 earnings of $0.09 per share, representing a substantial 200% increase compared to the year-ago period.
Revenue forecasts for the quarter stand at $498.11 million, reflecting 52.79% year-over-year growth. Looking at the full fiscal year, consensus estimates call for earnings of $1.38 per share on top-line revenue of $3.25 billion.
The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has been revised 106.32% higher during the past month, signaling growing analyst confidence. Bloom Energy maintains a Zacks Rank of #3, corresponding to a Hold recommendation.
Valuation Multiples Remain Extended
Even following Thursday’s correction, Bloom Energy’s valuation remains rich by traditional metrics. The stock commands a Forward P/E multiple of 119.41, substantially above the industry benchmark of 18.47. Its PEG ratio stands at 4.78, well above the Alternative Energy sector average of 1.97.
The company’s P/S ratio of 17.12 hovers near its 10-year peak. According to GF Value analysis, fair value sits at $23.95, suggesting significant overvaluation at prevailing price levels.
Institutional investors control 84.63% of outstanding shares, while company insiders have reduced positions, offloading 268,788 shares during the past three months.
From a balance sheet perspective, the company demonstrates strong liquidity with a current ratio of 5.98 and a quick ratio of 4.95. While the debt-to-equity ratio of 3.89 indicates meaningful leverage, the Altman Z-Score of 6.88 points to financial stability.
BE’s beta coefficient of 5.34 underscores the stock’s volatile nature — Thursday’s double-digit percentage decline aligns with this high-volatility profile.
Shares closed the previous session at $159.99 before succumbing to selling pressure following the data center news on March 6.
Crypto World
February Jobs Data Shock: How a 92K Employment Drop Shifts Fed Policy Outlook
TLDR
- February nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, significantly worse than the anticipated 58,000-job increase
- The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, exceeding the 4.3% projection
- Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased following the release, with traders pricing in several potential 2026 reductions
- Escalating Middle East tensions are driving oil prices higher, compounding inflation worries
- Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledge the challenging data while urging restraint in drawing conclusions from a single report
February’s employment report delivered a significant blow to expectations, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing that 92,000 positions were eliminated across the U.S. economy. This figure stands in stark contrast to analyst predictions, which had called for approximately 58,000 new jobs to be added.
The jobless rate climbed to 4.4%, surpassing both the prior month’s 4.3% reading and Wall Street forecasts. This marks just the second time monthly employment has contracted since the pandemic-driven collapse of 2020.
Harsh winter conditions significantly impacted construction sector hiring throughout February. Additionally, a labor action involving Kaiser healthcare employees resulted in approximately 28,000 healthcare positions being subtracted from the monthly tally.
Previous employment data also underwent downward adjustments. December 2025’s initially reported 48,000-job gain was revised to show a 17,000-job loss instead. January’s numbers dropped from 130,000 to 126,000 new positions, erasing roughly 69,000 jobs from earlier estimates.
Financial markets responded swiftly to the disappointing figures. CME FedWatch data indicates March rate cut probability jumped from 2% to 4.7% following the announcement.
Prediction platforms also registered notable movement. Kalshi data reveals traders currently assign a 26% probability to exactly one rate reduction in 2026, 22% odds for two cuts, and 17% likelihood of maintaining current rates throughout the year.
Fed Officials Weigh In
Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, indicated the employment figures introduce additional challenges for upcoming policy determinations. While recognizing labor market softness, she cautioned against overinterpreting data from any single reporting period.
Daly emphasized that inflation continues running above the Fed’s 2% objective, necessitating careful policy considerations. She referenced the three rate reductions implemented in late 2025, totaling 75 basis points, as measures intended to support employment.
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, suggested one or two rate reductions could be warranted this year should inflation moderate. He characterized employment conditions as “steady to soft” while noting Middle East developments might warrant holding rates steady.
Retail spending figures reinforced concerns about economic momentum. Commerce Department data showed January retail sales declined 0.2%, with seven of thirteen tracked categories posting decreases.
Oil Prices Add to Inflation Pressure
Tensions between the United States and Iran have disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Extended transit routes and elevated insurance premiums are driving freight costs upward.
Brent crude oil prices pushed beyond $80 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate experienced similar increases. Qatar halted LNG shipments for the first time in three decades, potentially creating opportunities for American energy producers.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes contended that sustained Middle East instability could compel the Fed toward accommodative monetary policy, pointing to past examples.
The Federal Reserve now confronts the challenge of addressing employment weakness while inflation persists above target levels, complicated by energy price pressures stemming from geopolitical instability.
Crypto World
Ripple (XRP) Unveils Ambitious Digital Prime Broker Strategy for Institutional Adoption
TLDR
- Ripple unveiled a comprehensive whitepaper detailing its “Digital Prime Broker” framework designed for institutional and banking clients
- XRP and the XRP Ledger facilitate early settlement mechanisms through on-chain credit infrastructure
- Clients of Ripple Prime can now trade CFTC-regulated futures for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana via Coinbase Derivatives with Nodal Clear settlement
- XRP Ledger’s Permissioned DEX enables institutional participation within a KYC/AML-compliant regulatory framework
- XRP currently hovers around $1.40, experiencing decline over the past 24-hour period
Ripple has introduced a comprehensive whitepaper detailing its strategy to streamline institutional access to cryptocurrency markets. At the heart of this initiative is a “Digital Prime Broker” framework, with XRP serving as a fundamental component of the system’s functionality.
Have you read Ripple’s new whitepaper in full?$XRP isn’t just payments now. They’re expanding into institutional trading infrastructure
Onchain credit lines. Prime brokerage netting Transparent funding costs
Payments was the start. This is the next layer
NEW DEMAND FOR $XRP! pic.twitter.com/S9tWuKMasz— X Finance Bull (@Xfinancebull) March 2, 2026
The primary objective addresses the currently disjointed approach institutions face when accessing digital asset markets. Presently, major financial entities navigate multiple trading partnerships, disparate credit arrangements, and substantial regulatory compliance burdens. Ripple’s proposed framework consolidates these elements into a unified access layer.
Within this architecture, a prime broker would provide on-chain credit facilities to brokers and market makers. This structure enables participants to tap into liquidity prior to standard settlement completion, accelerating transactions while improving capital efficiency.
The XRP Ledger manages settlement operations. According to Ripple, the platform supports accelerated settlement by facilitating on-chain credit lines that finance transactions before the conventional net settlement timeline concludes. Associated funding expenses are disclosed with complete transparency.
Ripple possesses existing infrastructure to support this vision. The firm’s acquisition of Hidden Road last year—now rebranded as Ripple Prime—provides an operational prime brokerage platform rather than merely a conceptual framework.
Permissioned DEX Opens Door for Regulated Institutional Trading
A recently activated Permissioned DEX on the XRP Ledger represents a crucial element of this strategic initiative. This feature enables institutional trading on-chain while maintaining control over counterparty interactions through credential-based access restrictions.
This architecture embeds KYC and AML protocols directly into the trading infrastructure. For institutions operating under stringent regulatory mandates, this integrated compliance framework proves essential.
The Permissioned DEX effectively establishes a regulated pathway within a decentralized framework, addressing what has traditionally been a significant barrier to institutional cryptocurrency adoption.
Ripple Prime Now Offers Crypto Futures on Coinbase
Ripple has further announced that Ripple Prime users can now access cryptocurrency derivatives through Coinbase Derivatives. Available products include futures contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.
These contracts operate under CFTC regulation and trade continuously around the clock. Nodal Clear provides clearing services. With Ripple Prime maintaining a Futures Commission Merchant license, the platform delivers these products directly without intermediary involvement.
Coinbase additionally provides U.S. perpetual-style futures contracts, broadening the available product suite. In the previous month, Ripple Prime integrated Hyperliquid support, enabling client access to on-chain derivative products.
XRP trades near $1.40 currently, showing decline over the recent 24-hour window based on CoinMarketCap reporting.
Crypto World
How Will BTC’s Price React?
Iran also rejected Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender but apologized to its neighbors.
The war that started last Saturday between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon, despite Trump’s demands for unconditional surrender.
The POTUS has made a new set of threats after Iran’s president called Trump’s request for the country’s unconditional surrender a “dream.” Nevertheless, Iran’s authorities issued a rare apology to its neighbors for its strikes against numerous sites.
The US President continued the intense topic by warning that Iran will be hit very hard today. He also threatened that areas and groups of people that were not targeted before might be “under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death.”
TRUMP SAYS UNDER SERIOUS CONSIDERATION FOR COMPLETE DESTRUCTION AND CERTAIN DEATH, BECAUSE OF IRAN’S BAD BEHAVIOR, ARE AREAS AND GROUPS OF PEOPLE THAT WERE NOT CONSIDERED FOR TARGETING UP UNTIL THIS MOMENT IN TIME
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 7, 2026
Recall that once the first strikes hit their targets last week, BTC’s price tumbled immediately from $67,000 to $63,000. However, it rebounded to $68,000 during the same day, especially after reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed during the attacks.
It kept climbing mid-week as the tension grew and hit a monthly high at $74,000 on Wednesday. Nevertheless, it was rejected there, and the weak US jobs report from Friday, as well as Trump’s latest remarks on Iran and Cuba, sent it south to $68,000.
Today’s developments have left BTC unfazed as it continues to trade at around $68,000. However, more volatility might ensue if Trump’s threats become reality, especially since the crypto market is the only financial industry available for trading during the weekends.
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OmniPact Raises $50 Million to Power the Future of Decentralized Trust Infrastructure
TLDR:
- OmniPact raised $50M from anonymous institutional investors and family offices to advance its trust protocol.
- The funding will cover mainnet development, security audits, and a Q1 2026 testnet launch on schedule.
- Smart contracts serve as on-chain guarantors, removing all intermediaries from peer-to-peer transactions.
- OmniPact’s roadmap includes RWA integration and AI agent transaction capabilities across multiple chains.
OmniPact has secured $50 million in a private funding round to advance its decentralized trust infrastructure. The New York-based protocol is building a trust layer for peer-to-peer transactions involving both physical and digital assets.
A consortium of institutional investors and family offices backed the round, requesting anonymity. The capital will speed up mainnet development, cross-chain integration, and the launch of a decentralized arbitration module, bringing the project closer to full global deployment.
Funds to Drive Mainnet Development and Technical Expansion
A large share of the proceeds will fund the final development of OmniPact’s core contracts. Security audits of the multi-chain infrastructure are also scheduled as part of this phase.
Both steps must be completed before the protocol can advance into public deployment. This work is set to run alongside active engineering efforts on the mainnet.
OmniPact also confirmed that its testnet launch remains on schedule for Q1 2026. This milestone gives the protocol a clear timeline as it moves toward full market entry. Reaching this target would place OmniPact ahead of many competitors in the decentralized commerce sector.
Part of the capital will also go toward expanding OmniPact’s engineering team. More developers are expected to speed up real-world asset (RWA) integration across the platform. AI agent transaction capabilities are also being developed as part of this funding cycle.
Co-founder and CEO Alex Johnson commented on the raise, stating: “The funding validates our thesis that the future of commerce requires a neutral, transparent, and trustless foundation.”
Johnson added that the infrastructure “eliminates intermediaries entirely, returning power to users.” He further noted that investor confidence would allow the team to bring secure, decentralized custody to a global audience.
Smart Contracts and Decentralized Arbitration as the Trust Layer
OmniPact’s protocol is built to solve the trust problem that persists in peer-to-peer transactions. The platform deploys smart contracts as on-chain guarantors, removing reliance on any centralized platform. Two parties can therefore transact directly, with no third-party intermediary required.
Furthermore, the protocol pairs algorithmic custody with a built-in decentralized arbitration module. A reputation system operates alongside both tools, reinforcing accountability across all user activity.
Together, these mechanisms support secure and verifiable peer-to-peer asset exchange. The model also removes single points of failure common in traditional escrow services.
Cross-chain integration forms another technical pillar of OmniPact’s core architecture. The protocol is engineered to function across multiple blockchain networks at the same time. This gives the platform access to users operating across different digital asset ecosystems.
Institutional backers expressed confidence in OmniPact’s roadmap at the time of the announcement. They cited the protocol’s capacity to set new standards across both Web4 and traditional commerce.
Johnson concluded that the round gives the team the resources to “execute our roadmap” and deliver a live, fully operational protocol to a global audience.
Crypto World
European Energy Crisis: How Russia and Qatar Shocks Are Threatening EU Industrial Power
TLDR:
- Europe still imported 2 billion cubic feet per day of Russian LNG last year, half of Russia’s total exports.
- Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG and declared force majeure, with production halted for at least one month.
- The U.S. now controls over 50% of Europe’s LNG supply, giving Washington direct leverage over EU energy costs.
- Gas prices have already surged over 50% as simultaneous supply shocks strain Europe’s limited energy alternatives.
European energy crisis pressures are mounting as Russia redirects LNG exports while Qatar declares force majeure on gas. Europe replaced cheap Russian pipeline gas with costly LNG after the Ukraine war began.
Now two simultaneous supply shocks are hitting the continent at once. Gas prices have already surged over 50% in recent days.
The EU faces limited alternatives and growing concerns about a 2022-style energy crunch that could once again disrupt factories across the region.
Russia Redirects Exports as Qatar Shuts Down Production
Before the Ukraine war, Europe relied on 15 billion cubic feet per day of Russian gas. That supply kept European manufacturing costs competitive for years.
After the conflict began, Europe sourced costlier LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other producers. The transition raised energy costs for European industry considerably.
The EU still imported 2 billion cubic feet per day of Russian LNG last year. That volume is roughly half of Russia’s total LNG exports globally. Russia has now announced it will redirect those flows to China and India.
Bull Theory stated on X: “Russia announced it will redirect part of its LNG exports away from Europe to friendly countries like China and India immediately.”
Russia’s move comes before the EU’s 2027 legal ban on Russian gas takes effect. Moscow has clear incentive to act on supply leverage before that deadline.
European policymakers now face a difficult position with limited response time. New supply chains cannot be established quickly enough to fill the gap.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility shutdown has added another blow to Europe’s energy position. Qatar supplies 20% of all global LNG and declared force majeure after the closure.
Normal production is not expected to resume for at least one month. Europe had relied on Qatari LNG as a central part of its post-Russia supply plan.
U.S. Leverage Grows While European Industry Faces Closures
The United States now supplies over 50% of Europe’s LNG. This gives Washington leverage over European energy costs and industrial policy.
European manufacturers must either absorb higher costs or relocate operations to North America. Bull Theory noted: “This effectively allows the U.S. to weaponize energy costs, forcing European factories to either pay a massive premium or relocate.”
Unlike China and India, Europe has not built diverse energy supply chains. Both nations secured alternatives that shielded them from current disruptions.
Europe, by contrast, faces simultaneous shocks with very few substitutes. Brussels is caught between U.S. bargaining pressure and a supply gap that diplomacy cannot quickly fill.
If the Hormuz blockade continues for weeks, a second wave of factory closures becomes likely. A similar pattern to 2022 could emerge, with permanent industrial losses for the European energy crisis.
The EU’s manufacturing standing faces direct structural pressure as a result. The outcome depends on events largely outside Europe’s control.
Russia still earns billions from the EU despite current tensions. The coming 2027 ban removes Moscow’s incentive to keep flows stable.
Europe has few tools to address a supply failure of this scale. The energy challenge now extends well beyond what Brussels can manage alone.
Crypto World
Kalshi, Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations in Potential Fundraising: WSJ
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.
Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.
Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.
Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has since expanded rapidly and recently surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with some estimates placing the figure closer to $1.5 billion.
Related: Kalshi, Polymarket face trading halt in Nevada after court rulings
Polymarket plans US launch later this year
Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains inaccessible to US users without a virtual private network but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year. The company was valued at roughly $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.
Both platforms have drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators. As Cointelegraph reported, US Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets after suspiciously timed bets on the timing of US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.
Senator Chris Murphy alleged that individuals close to the White House may have used advance knowledge of the attack to place bets, noting that several Polymarket accounts reportedly made about $1 million by wagering just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
Related: Kalshi founder provides update on Iran’s Khamenei market carveout
Polymarket faces insider trading suspicions
Polymarket has faced multiple insider trading allegations after several traders placed unusually well-timed bets on major events. A small group of crypto wallets recently made more than $1.2 million betting on a market tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published claims about insider trading linked to the project.
In a separate incident last month, another Polymarket account reportedly earned about $400,000 after placing a large wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the news became public, further raising questions about whether some traders had advance information.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Crypto World
USDC tops Tether as stablecoin transfers hit all-time high $1.8T
Stablecoins are delivering a liquidity surge unseen in recent cycles, with February marking a record on-chain transfer activity and signaling a shift in how capital moves through crypto markets. Allium’s data shows total stablecoin transfers climbed to $1.8 trillion in February, underscoring a robust appetite for dollar-pegged liquidity across chains. Within that, USDC accounted for roughly 70% of stablecoin activity, while USDt handled about $514 billion in transfers. The divergence—USDC’s dominance in flow despite a smaller market cap—illustrates how on-chain dynamics can outpace headline market-size metrics. The backdrop includes Circle reporting strong Q4 2025 earnings tied to rapid USDC business growth and expanded payments operations, alongside broader regulatory chatter shaping stablecoin frameworks.
Key takeaways
- February set a monthly record for stablecoin transfer volume at $1.8 trillion, according to Allium data.
- USDC comprised roughly 70% of all stablecoin transfer volume, with $1.26 trillion moved in February.
- USDt accounted for about $514 billion in stablecoin transfers in the same month, highlighting a substantial, yet smaller, slice of activity.
- USDC’s transfer volume has consistently surpassed USDt in recent months, even as USDt retains a larger market cap; Moonrock Capital’s Simon Dedic highlighted the trend on social media.
- New supply dynamics saw USDC minting accelerate in March, with Arkham data showing more than $3 billion minted in the first week of the month, while USDt’s supply remained comparatively flat.
- Broader liquidity signals—such as rising stablecoin supply on exchanges and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio’s recovery—converge with Bitcoin’s renewed price momentum, suggesting improving buying power in the market.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $USDC, $USDT
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. A higher on-chain stablecoin presence translates into greater liquidity for buyers, which can support price recoveries during risk-on periods.
Market context: The current liquidity uptick comes as crypto markets digest improved risk sentiment and a more active stablecoin ecosystem. Regulatory developments, including state-level discussions around stablecoins in places like Florida, add a layer of policy uncertainty that market participants are watching closely. These dynamics shape how liquidity profiles evolve across exchanges and DeFi protocols, influencing funding costs, slippage, and the pace of any potential rebound in broader crypto markets.
Why it matters
The February data illuminate a shift in how liquidity is sourced and deployed within the crypto ecosystem. Stablecoins are not only serving as a unit of account and settlement layer; they are becoming a primary engine for on-chain liquidity, enabling faster settlement and cross-chain movement. This has practical implications for traders, liquidity providers, and developers building on-ramp/off-ramp solutions, as larger flows can reduce slippage and improve the efficiency of executing large trades without destabilizing prices.
From an investor perspective, the observed dynamic—where USDC shows outsized transfer activity despite a smaller market cap relative to USDT—suggests that on-chain demand and real-use cases (such as payments, settlements, and cross-chain liquidity provisioning) can outpace traditional metrics. For builders and wallets, the data point to a thriving settlement layer, underscoring why stablecoins remain central to DeFi liquidity provisioning and cross-chain ecosystems. The broader regulatory context, including bills or policy proposals under consideration in jurisdictions like Florida, could influence user adoption and the pace at which institutions participate in stablecoin ecosystems, even as on-chain demand remains robust.
The market’s attention remains anchored on indicators that go beyond wallet counts or market caps and instead focus on real, on-chain activity. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which tracks Bitcoin’s market cap relative to stablecoin supply, has been recovering after a February dip, a signal CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom described as indicating “buying power returning to the market.” This sentiment aligns with a rebound in stablecoin supply on exchanges, where data indicate inflows contributing to a three-week high of roughly $66.5 billion, and with March inflows of about $5.14 billion on a single day tightening the liquidity pipeline. When sidelined capital returns to centralized and decentralized venues, it often precedes price moves in the flagship crypto assets, including Bitcoin and ether, as traders position for shifts in risk appetite.
What to watch next
- How March USDC minting evolves relative to USDT, and whether the pace sustains the early-month momentum observed by Arkham data.
- The trajectory of the SSR metric and whether rising stablecoin inflows on exchanges persist into the next quarter.
- Regulatory developments around stablecoins, including any state-level bills or federal policy steps that could affect settlement rails and cross-border payments.
- Circle’s ongoing earnings and operational updates, especially around USDC’s settlement capabilities and any further expansion of payments networks (as noted in prior earnings coverage).
- Monitoring the price action of Bitcoin and other major assets as liquidity flows and risk sentiment evolve, including shifts in funding rates and on-chain transaction activity.
Sources & verification
- Allium data on stablecoin transfer volumes, February metrics for USDC and USDt transfers.
- Arkham data on USDC minting pace in March, including the first-week minting total.
- Moonrock Capital — Simon Dedic’s observation on USDC vs USDT transfer volumes (social post).
- Cointelegraph coverage on Circle’s Q4/2025 earnings and USDC-related growth and settlement expansion.
- CryptoQuant analysis of SSR recovery and related exchange stablecoin inflows (including the March 5 figure of $5.14 billion).
- Florida Senate coverage of state-level stablecoin legislation and related regulatory considerations.
Stablecoins drive liquidity and the road ahead
The on-chain era is increasingly defined by how dollars move between wallets, scripts, and cross-chain bridges rather than by standalone token flips alone. February’s record stablecoin transfer volume, led by USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) and supported by a broad base of on-chain activity, suggests a fresh wave of liquidity is re-entering markets. While USDt (CRYPTO: USDT) remains the larger market-cap holder, its role in daily transaction flow appears to be waning relative to USDC’s immediate-use utility and cross-chain flexibility. This divergence — a rising proportion of actual transfers in USDC alongside ongoing growth of USDT’s nominal cap — highlights the complexity of today’s liquidity stack: more dollars are moving in ways that can support trades, settlements, and potentially price resilience as macro and regulatory signals evolve.
Watching the next few weeks will be instructive: will USDC sustain its elevated transfer-volume share and continue minting beyond the early March pace observed by Arkham? Will the SSR continue its ascent as more stablecoins circulate on exchanges? And how will policymakers respond to a stablecoin ecosystem that both powers practical payments and invites heightened scrutiny? The answers will shape not only the immediate liquidity environment but also the longer-term viability of stablecoins as liquidity rails for the crypto market.
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Crypto World
South Korea Bars Stablecoins from Corporate Crypto Investment Guidelines Over Legal Conflict
TLDR:
- South Korea FSC excludes USDT and USDC from corporate crypto investment guidelines over legal conflicts.
- The Foreign Exchange Transactions Act does not recognize stablecoins as a valid external payment method.
- Listed companies may invest in the top 20 non-stablecoin assets, capped at 5% of their own capital.
- A pending amendment to the Foreign Exchange Act could eventually open the door for stablecoin inclusion.
Stablecoins, including USDT and USDC, are set to be excluded from South Korea’s corporate cryptocurrency investment guidelines.
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) is preparing rules to allow listed companies to trade digital assets.
According to Herald Economy, regulators have opted to keep dollar-pegged stablecoins out of the approved investment list.
The decision stems from a conflict with the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act. This law does not currently recognize stablecoins as a legal external payment method.
Legal Conflict Shapes the Stablecoin Decision
South Korea’s Foreign Exchange Transactions Act requires external payments to go through designated foreign exchange banks. Stablecoins are not classified as external payment instruments under this law.
Allowing corporate investment in stablecoins would create a direct legal contradiction. The FSC chose to exclude stablecoins from the new corporate investment guidelines.
A partial amendment to the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act was introduced to the National Assembly in October. The amendment aims to formally recognize stablecoins as a means of payment.
The bill, however, remains under review and has not yet been passed. Until the law changes, stablecoins cannot be included in corporate investment guidelines.
Instead, the FSC plans to permit the top 20 non-stablecoin digital assets by market capitalization. Bitcoin and Ethereum are among the assets expected to be approved under these rules.
Investment amounts may also be capped at 5% of a company’s own capital. This limit is designed to reduce exposure during the early market stages.
Some listed companies with cross-border trade had requested stablecoin inclusion in the guidelines. They argued stablecoins support exchange rate hedging and fast international settlements.
The FSC, however, maintained its position and excluded stablecoins from the permitted investment list.
Corporate Stablecoin Access Remains Outside Regulated Guidelines
Even without official guidelines covering stablecoins, companies can still trade them through other channels. Personal wallets like MetaMask and overseas exchanges such as Coinbase’s OTC platform remain accessible to corporations.
These transactions, however, operate outside any officially regulated framework. The guidelines do not block companies from using stablecoins entirely.
Authorities noted that some companies already use stablecoins through personal accounts or overseas exchange platforms for trade.
These transactions occur outside formal banking channels. The FSC acknowledged this but still chose not to formalize stablecoin use in the guidelines. Regulators placed legal consistency above industry convenience in this case.
An industry insider confirmed the corporate guidelines task force has wrapped up its work. “I know that the working task force on corporate guidelines has been completed,” the insider said.
They added, “It is in line with the legislative status of the Phase 2 Digital Asset Framework Act, so we have to wait and see, but it is a knotted situation.” Progress, therefore, depends heavily on how the broader legal framework develops.
The FSC’s approach signals a cautious entry into corporate digital asset participation. By limiting access to top non-stablecoin assets, regulators aim to manage financial risk.
Companies seeking stablecoin access will likely need to wait for the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act to be amended.
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