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Crypto Market Structure Bill Approval by Mid-Year Could Spark Second-Half Rally, JPMorgan Says

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • JPMorgan analysts say the CLARITY Act could be approved by mid-year and lift crypto markets in H2 2026.
  • The bill would classify tokens under CFTC or SEC oversight, easing compliance for assets like XRP and Solana.
  • New crypto projects could raise up to $75 million annually without full SEC registration under a grace period rule.
  • JPMorgan warns the bill may shift institutional focus from stablecoins toward tokenized deposits if enacted into law.

The crypto market structure bill may receive U.S. approval by mid-year, according to JPMorgan analysts. Their report suggests the legislation could serve as a positive catalyst for crypto markets later in 2026.

Despite weak sentiment across digital assets, analysts remain constructive on the sector’s outlook for the year ahead.

Crypto Market Structure Bill: What the Legislation Covers

The proposed legislation, widely known as the CLARITY Act, aims to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

The House has already advanced the bill, while Senate discussions remain ongoing. Two key sticking points continue to slow progress on the final version.

One concern involves stablecoin yield. Crypto firms want to reward users who hold stablecoins, but banks warn this could draw deposits away from traditional institutions.

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The other issue centers on conflict-of-interest rules, with Democrats pushing to bar senior government officials and their families from certain crypto financial activities.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated, “While sentiment remains negative in crypto markets, we continue to believe that a potential approval of the market structure legislation most likely by mid year could serve as a positive catalyst for crypto markets into the second half of the year.” The team remains broadly constructive on crypto for 2026 despite current headwinds.

The White House has held multiple closed-door meetings between crypto firms and banking groups. A compromise remains possible, though no final agreement has been reached yet.

Eight Catalysts That Could Follow a Crypto Bill Passage

JPMorgan outlined eight potential positive outcomes if the bill becomes law. The analysts wrote that passage would fundamentally reshape the digital asset space, stating: “If passed it will reshape market structure by providing regulatory clarity, ending ‘regulation by enforcement,’ promoting tokenization, and facilitating greater institutional participation.”

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The legislation would classify tokens under either CFTC or SEC oversight, easing compliance for major digital assets. A grandfather clause could place tokens like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin under the lighter CFTC framework.

New projects would receive a grace period allowing up to $75 million in annual fundraising without full SEC registration.

This could support venture activity within U.S. borders rather than pushing it offshore. A pathway also exists for tokens to transition from securities to commodity status once sufficiently decentralized.

Clearer custody rules could allow institutions like BNY Mellon and State Street to directly hold digital assets. On stablecoins, the analysts noted that enacted provisions “could weigh on U.S. stablecoins by recasting them more as digital cash instruments rather than investment deposits,” potentially shifting attention toward tokenized deposits or offshore alternatives like Ethena’s USDe.

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Small-transaction tax exemptions for everyday crypto payments are also included in the proposal. Miners, validators, and developers would be exempt from broker reporting requirements during development phases.

JPMorgan’s long-term bitcoin price target remains at $266,000, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison to gold.

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Trump Media Eyes Spinning Out Truth Social Amid Crypto Push

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Crypto Breaking News

Trump Media & Technology Group is weighing a structural pivot that could redefine its crypto playbook: spinning Truth Social into a publicly traded entity as part of ongoing talks with energy-fusion developer TAE Technologies and Texas Ventures Acquisition III, a SPAC that would take the platform public. If the merger advances, Truth Social would become a stand-alone company named SpinCo, which would subsequently merge with Texas Ventures III, with SpinCo shares distributed to Trump Media shareholders. The arrangement follows a December merger agreement valued at more than $6 billion and aligns with the company’s broader strategy to monetize its platform through fintech and crypto ventures while pursuing energy-tech ambitions. The moves come against a backdrop of Trump Media’s forays into crypto and digital assets, including a Bitcoin treasury that has been built up over time and a slate of crypto product filings that signal a broader push into tokenized finance.

Key takeaways

  • The Truth Social spin-out would be paired with a merger between TAE Technologies and Trump Media, with SpinCo expected to merge into Texas Ventures Acquisition III and distribute SpinCo shares to Trump Media shareholders once closed.
  • Truth Media’s crypto arm, launched as Truth.Fi in 2025, now anchors a broader crypto strategy that includes a Bitcoin treasury and a portfolio of crypto ETFs filed in the US, including those tracking Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Cronos (CRO) with staking options.
  • The SPAC-backed deal and spin-out are tied to a merger with TAE Technologies, a project that could accelerate Trump Media’s interests in energy fusion and related data-center deployments driven by AI workloads.
  • Financial disclosures from 2025 show a significant unrealized drag from crypto prices, with a stated loss of about $712.3 million for the year and end-2025 assets around $2.5 billion, illustrating the volatility and risk in crypto-focused corporate ventures.
  • Regulatory and market developments in the near term—SEC filings, merger approvals, and ETF approvals—will shape whether SpinCo can launch as planned and how quickly Truth Social’s crypto ambitions scale.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $CRO

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The unfolding discussions reflect a broader wave of corporate actors pursuing crypto and blockchain-related products within SPAC-structured deals and strategic partnerships, even as macro liquidity and regulatory scrutiny shape the pace of such initiatives.

Why it matters

The potential spin-out of Truth Social into a separately listed company marks a notable shift in how Trump Media plans to monetize its user base and brand footprint. By isolating Truth Social within a public vehicle—SpinCo—the group could unlock capital markets’ interest in a platform with significant reach, while kaleidoscopically aligning with a diversification strategy that extends into fintech, crypto, and energy tech. The arrangement would place SpinCo in a position to pursue crypto product innovations and tokenized offerings without immediate interference from the parent’s other lines of business, potentially attracting investors drawn to crypto-enabled social platforms and revenue streams tied to digital assets.

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Truth Media’s crypto arm, launched under the Truth.Fi umbrella, has evolved into a broader fintech initiative that includes a Bitcoin treasury and an appetite for crypto exchange-traded products. The company has filed for Truth Social-branded crypto ETFs in the United States, including ones focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as well as Cronos (CRO), with staking features linked to its ecosystem and a backend partnership framework with Crypto.com. This suite of filings signals an intent to create regulated, investable crypto products that could broaden the company’s investor base and provide diversified exposure to digital assets beyond the social media platform. The plan incorporates the Crypto.com partnership as a crucial enabler for the CRO-related ETF strategy and treasury mechanics.

On the energy front, the merger with TAE Technologies is pitched as a synergy play: a fusion-focused technology developer that could support the power needs of expanding AI data centers and other high-demand workloads. The tie-up would integrate Trump Media’s media and fintech ventures with a long-horizon energy project, aligning with a broader industry trend where crypto mining and blockchain infrastructure searches intersect with energy procurement and efficiency initiatives. The combination could create a framework for deploying fusion-powered energy solutions in data centers, potentially reducing energy costs and capacity constraints for crypto and fintech operations that require robust compute resources.

Financial disclosures from 2025 illustrate the risk profile of such ambitious ventures. Trump Media reported a loss of about $712.3 million for the year, driven largely by unrealized losses tied to crypto prices and related securities. At year’s end, the company noted roughly $2.5 billion in assets, a figure that dwarfs the $776.8 million cash and short-term investments reported for 2024. These numbers underscore the sensitivity of crypto ventures to price cycles and market sentiment, while also highlighting the capital intensity of pursuing a combined media, fintech, and energy-tech agenda. The public-private nature of the SpinCo proposition means investors will be scrutinizing how the tech stack—from Truth.Fi-powered products to fusion-energy capabilities—can scale and become financially material over time.

The storyline also hints at a broader narrative around governance, valuation, and timing. The proposed path—Truth Social’s spin-out followed by a merger with a SPAC—depends on closing conditions, regulatory clearances, and market reception. If the merger with TAE Technologies proceeds, SpinCo would be positioned as a listed vehicle that retains exposure to the crypto product suite while benefiting from the potential upside of energy-tech partnerships. The discussions reflect a strategic attempt to combine a high-visibility social platform with a diversified set of growth engines, including digital assets and energy innovation, in a bid to create value across multiple cycles and market conditions.

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From a market-structure perspective, the plan underscores how corporate entities pursue crypto-adjacent strategies by leveraging SPAC frameworks and multi-industry combinations. It also raises questions about risk management, liquidity, and concentration risk in a portfolio that spans social media, fintech, and energy tech. As the parties move through due diligence, investors will be looking for clarity on how SpinCo’s governance, earnings potential, and asset allocation will be balanced against the volatility inherent in crypto markets and the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding crypto ETFs and digital assets.

For now, Trump Media’s narrative remains a blend of strategic ambition and regulatory navigation. The company has not announced a closing date for the merger or SpinCo listing, and the outcome will hinge on regulatory approvals, investor sentiment, and the successful execution of the merger with TAE Technologies. Stakeholders will be watching the timeline for SpinCo’s listing, any subsequent stock distributions to Trump Media holders, and updates on the Truth.Fi roadmap, including ETF approvals and the performance of the Bitcoin treasury and CRO treasury-backed initiatives.

What to watch next

  • Clearance and timing of the SpinCo formation and its merger with Texas Ventures Acquisition III; any regulatory milestones or approvals with a timeline.
  • Status updates on the TAE Technologies merger, including closing conditions and any amendments to the original >$6B valuation.
  • Progress of Truth Social-branded crypto ETFs, with updates on SEC approvals, product launches, and staking features.
  • Development and deployment schedules for Truth.Fi products and the performance of the Bitcoin and Cronos treasuries under Crypto.com and Yorkville Acquisition partnerships.
  • Regulatory or market developments affecting SPAC activity and crypto-centric offerings that could influence investor appetite for SpinCo and related assets.

Sources & verification

  • Trump Media & Technology Group discusses spinning Truth Social into SpinCo as part of a potential deal with TAE Technologies and a SPAC vehicle (the merger agreement listing and SPAC structure).
  • The merger agreement with TAE Technologies for a deal valued at more than $6 billion.
  • Truth.Fi crypto initiative and a Bitcoin treasury reported by Trump Media, including holdings exceeding 11,500 BTC as of late September.
  • Truth Social-branded crypto ETFs filed in the US for BTC, ETH, and CRO, including staking arrangements, tied to partnerships with Crypto.com.
  • Partnerships and related disclosures connecting CRO ETFs to the CRO treasury and Yorkville Acquisition.

Trump Media’s potential spin-out ties Truth Social to broader crypto and fusion-energy ambitions

Trump Media & Technology Group is exploring a path that could redefine how a presidential brand expands into crypto, while layering in energy-tech ambitions. The core idea is to spin Truth Social, the company’s flagship social platform, into its own publicly traded entity—SpinCo—then merge that vehicle with Texas Ventures Acquisition III, a blank-check company. The hailed trigger is the ongoing merger with TAE Technologies, the energy-fusion startup that has been positioned as a strategic partner in the broader plan. The deal landscape suggests a multi-layered strategy: a public listing for Truth Social within SpinCo, followed by a merger with SPAC sponsor Texas Ventures III, and a distribution of SpinCo shares to Trump Media shareholders, all contingent on the closing of the merger with TAE Technologies, which itself has a reported value exceeding $6 billion.

Within this framework, Truth Media has emphasized crypto as a growth vector. In 2025, the company expanded its fintech footprint under the Truth.Fi banner, laying the groundwork for crypto products and services that could sit alongside a social platform with a global footprint. A key element of this expansion has been a Bitcoin treasury reported to be in excess of 11,500 BTC as of late September, underscoring a deliberate accumulation of digital assets that could support future product launches or collateral arrangements. The crypto strategy is further reflected in the filing of Truth Social-branded crypto ETFs in the United States—facilities that would allow investors to gain exposure to BTC, ETH, and the Cronos ecosystem while embedding staking features. The ETFs are linked to ongoing partnerships that include Crypto.com, a connection that appears central to the CRO ETF and related treasury operations.

Beyond the crypto dimension, the merger with TAE Technologies signals a parallel emphasis on energy innovation. TAE’s fusion technology is portrayed as a mechanism to address the growing power demands of AI data centers and other data-intensive infrastructure. If realized, the combination would tether a social-media-centric fintech venture to a fusion-energy roadmap, marrying user engagement with a long-horizon energy supply strategy. The ambition is not merely to diversify revenue streams but to create an integrated platform where crypto products, fintech services, and energy tech coalesce under a single corporate umbrella. The public listing—which SpinCo would pursue through the SPAC route—could also broaden access to capital, enabling more ambitious product development and potential partnerships in the crypto and high-performance computing ecosystems.

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Of course, the path forward remains contingent on a series of milestones. The 2025 financials already reveal a challenging year, with a reported loss of about $712.3 million largely tied to unrealized crypto losses and related securities, alongside end-of-year assets around $2.5 billion. The figures illustrate the risk profile inherent in crypto-centered corporate bets, where price swings and regulatory shifts can swiftly impact balance sheets. Investors will be evaluating whether SpinCo’s governance, capital structure, and cash flow prospects demonstrate a credible route to profitability, or whether the proposals remain predominantly strategic, with upside tied to future crypto adoption and energy-tech commercialization. As always, the timing of regulatory approvals, due diligence, and market conditions will ultimately shape whether SpinCo’s vision becomes a measurable segment of Trump Media’s portfolio or remains an aspirational blueprint for a broader ecosystem that blends social media, crypto, and fusion energy.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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20% Off Plus Extra 10% with Code CRYPTO

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Crypto Breaking News

Tangem has announced a limited-time Spring Flash Sale running from March 2 to March 8, offering a 20% discount across its website. The promotion applies to all products, giving customers a timely opportunity to secure a hardware wallet at a reduced price.

For readers of Crypto Breaking News, the offer becomes even more attractive. By using the partner promo code CRYPTO at checkout, customers can unlock an additional 10% discount on top of the existing 20% sale price. This means significantly lower costs for those looking to enhance their crypto security while taking advantage of stacked savings.

Importantly, the current BTC Reward campaign remains valid during the Spring Flash Sale. This means buyers not only benefit from discounted pricing but may also qualify for the ongoing Bitcoin reward initiative, adding further value to their purchase.

Tangem Wallet has gained recognition in the crypto community for its card-based hardware design, mobile-first experience, and focus on self-custody. As the industry continues to emphasize the importance of owning private keys, hardware wallets remain a core tool for long-term holders and active users alike. Solutions like Tangem aim to simplify self-custody without compromising on security, offering an alternative to traditional seed phrase storage methods.

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With increasing attention on exchange risks, phishing attempts, and wallet exploits, many users are reassessing how they store digital assets. A hardware wallet can help reduce exposure to online threats by keeping private keys offline, under the direct control of the user.

This Spring Flash Sale provides a limited window to secure Tangem products at a combined discount while the BTC Reward is still active. Readers can apply the promo code CRYPTO at checkout or use our affiliate link to ensure the additional 10% discount is automatically applied.

The offer runs from March 2 through March 8, and discounts will revert to standard pricing once the campaign ends.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Arthur Hayes Says Iran Conflict Could Trigger Fed Easing, Boost Bitcoin

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Arthur Hayes Says Iran Conflict Could Trigger Fed Easing, Boost Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new essay on March 2 arguing that prolonged US military engagement with Iran would increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing, ultimately driving Bitcoin higher.

His thesis rests on a four-decade pattern: every major US military campaign in the Middle East has been followed by Fed easing, and he expects Iran to be no different.

War and the Fed: A Recurring Pattern

In “iOS Warfare,” Hayes presented a historical analysis linking US military operations in the Middle East to subsequent monetary easing by the Fed. He noted that every US president since 1985 has launched missile strikes or full-scale wars against Middle Eastern countries, and that the Fed consistently lowered interest rates in the aftermath.

Hayes cited three precedents. During the 1990 Gulf War under President George H.W. Bush, the Fed held rates steady at its first post-war meeting but signaled easing was likely if the conflict dragged on. The central bank cut rates at its November and December 1990 meetings, even as oil-driven inflation persisted.

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After the September 11 attacks in 2001, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed through an emergency 50-basis-point rate cut, citing downward pressure on asset prices and the need to restore economic confidence. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that followed were accompanied by an extended easing cycle.

Under President Obama’s 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan, rates were already at zero, and quantitative easing was underway, leaving no further room for cuts.

Turning to the present, Hayes framed Trump’s apparent endorsement of regime change in Iran as following the same pattern. He argued that Iranian regime change has been a bipartisan objective among US policymakers since 1979, giving the Fed political cover to ease monetary policy to finance the effort.

Hayes supported his argument with a chart showing that the percentage of the federal budget allocated to the Department of Veterans Affairs rose twice as fast as aggregate federal spending since 1985, alongside declining effective Fed Funds Rates following major military engagements.

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Wait for the Cut

Despite his bullish long-term outlook, Hayes advised caution in the near term. He recommended investors wait for the Fed to actually cut rates or begin printing money before adding exposure to Bitcoin and select altcoins.

“We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking,” Hayes wrote. “The prudent action is to wait and see.”

Bitcoin was trading around $66,200 at the time of publication, down nearly 30% year-over-year and roughly 47% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. The coin has fallen for five consecutive months, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stuck in extreme fear territory.

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Bitcoin Outperforms Equities as Asia Markets Reel From Iran Strikes

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Bitcoin Outperforms Equities as Asia Markets Reel From Iran Strikes

Asian markets plunged on Monday as the fallout from US and Israeli military strikes on Iran sent oil surging, stocks tumbling, and investors scrambling for safe havens — but Bitcoin held up better than expected, trading around $66,500 after a weekend that saw it swing between $63,000 and $68,000.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and Brent crude up as much as 13%, the conflict is now testing whether Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity makes it a crisis shock absorber or just another risk asset caught in the downdraft.

Asia Opens in the Red, Then Pares Losses

Japan’s Nikkei plunged as much as 2.15% at the open, shedding over 1,260 points. By midday, it had pared the drop to 1.66%, trading at 57,875. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.54%, and Singapore’s Straits Times fell 2.13%. Shanghai held up better, dipping just 0.45%.

Airline stocks across the region — Qantas, Singapore Airlines, and Japan Airlines among them — fell more than 5% as the Hormuz closure disrupted flight routes and sent fuel costs soaring. Chinese airlines were also hit hard.

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Oil’s initial surge faded sharply through the session. Brent had jumped as much as 13% at the open, but WTI was up just 4.24% by midday. US equity-index futures also recovered, with the S&P 500 down 0.67% and the Dow off 0.71% — well off earlier lows of over 1%. Gold rose 1.76%.

China’s energy sector bucked the trend. PetroChina opened up 7% in Shanghai, and the CSI Energy Index jumped 5%. Korea’s Kospi, one of Asia’s top-performing markets this year, was closed Monday for a national holiday — delaying what could be a sharp reaction on Tuesday.

Bitcoin, down 2.2% on the day, outperformed the steep losses in equity futures and Asian stock benchmarks.

A Wild Weekend for Crypto

The turbulence began Saturday when US-Israeli strikes hit targets across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 within hours as the total crypto market shed roughly $128 billion in value, with forced liquidations cascading across derivatives markets.

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The bounce came fast. After Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei’s death, traders bet the power vacuum could accelerate de-escalation, pushing Bitcoin back above $68,000 in thin Sunday liquidity. But the optimism faded as Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, hitting targets in Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, dragging the price back below $66,000 by Sunday evening in New York.

By early Monday in Asia, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,543, with a 24-hour range of $65,149 to $68,043. The 24-hour trading volume topped $43.6 billion, reflecting heightened activity as traders repositioned ahead of the US market open.

Hormuz: The Real Risk

The biggest market risk is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of global seaborne oil passes through the waterway. Digital signals indicate tanker traffic has nearly halted. At least three ships have been attacked near the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Economists have warned that a sustained closure could push oil prices as high as $108 per barrel.

OPEC+ moved to ease supply fears on Sunday, announcing a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting in April — more than analysts had expected. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, and four other members are set to boost output. But analysts cautioned the move may offer limited relief. If Gulf flows remain constrained, additional production means little. Export routes matter more than headline output targets.

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For crypto, the oil shock creates a dual threat. Higher energy prices feed directly into inflation expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts that the market has been counting on. Even with OPEC+ stepping in, prolonged disruption to Hormuz could keep crude elevated long enough to push inflation readings higher, which is negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Pressure Valve or Risk Asset?

The weekend reinforced Bitcoin’s evolving identity in geopolitical crises. When traditional markets are closed, crypto absorbs selling pressure from equities, bonds, and commodities. Analysts call this the “pressure valve” effect. Bitcoin is the only large liquid asset trading around the clock. It took the brunt of weekend risk-off flows. The real price discovery is expected on Monday when US equity markets and Bitcoin ETFs reopen.

That ETF dynamic adds a new variable. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew nearly $254 million in net inflows over three sessions last week. Monday’s open could test whether institutional holders maintain positions through escalating geopolitical turmoil.

Bitcoin futures funding rates have turned sharply negative, with the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed index at 15 — deep in “Extreme Fear” territory where it has been stuck for weeks. Some analysts view this as a contrarian signal, arguing that the market is mechanically paying traders to go long.

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What Comes Next

Some initial panic has faded after President Trump told the New York Times he was open to dropping sanctions on Iran if its new leadership proves pragmatic. A senior White House official also said to the press that Iran’s new interim leadership had suggested it was open to talks, and Trump said he had agreed to engage.

Some Wall Street strategists warned against buying the dip too quickly. This episode risks lasting longer than the geopolitical flare-ups investors have grown accustomed to.

For Bitcoin, which has already fallen 47% from its October all-time high of $126,000, the $60,000 support level remains the line in the sand. A break below could open the path to the mid-$50,000 range. A sustained move above $70,000, on the other hand, could trigger a short squeeze given the heavy bearish positioning currently built up in derivatives markets.

With CPI data due March 11 and the Fed decision on March 18, the crypto market faces a gauntlet of catalysts that the Iran conflict has made exponentially harder to navigate.

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Trump Media Considers Spinning Out Truth Social

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Trump Media Considers Spinning Out Truth Social

Trump Media & Technology Group said it is considering spinning out its flagship social media platform, Truth Social, into a publicly traded company, a move that could see it prioritize its crypto ambitions.

The Donald Trump-founded company said on Friday that it is discussing the potential deal with energy fusion startup TAE Technologies and Texas Ventures Acquisition III, a blank check company that would take control of the social media platform.

The discussions build on Trump Media’s merger agreement with TAE Technologies in December in a deal worth more than $6 billion.

When that merger is closed, Truth Social could be spun into a new public company called SpinCo,  which would then merge with Texas Ventures III. SpinCo shares would also be distributed to Trump Media shareholders.

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Trump Media expanded into crypto in 2025, establishing the fintech brand Truth.Fi to support its crypto products and services while also establishing a Bitcoin treasury with over 11,500 BTC in late September.

The company has also filed for several Truth Social-branded crypto exchange-traded funds in the US, including one for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) and another for Cronos (CRO) with staking, in connection with its partnership with Crypto.com.