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Crypto Market Struggles as Macro Headwinds Tighten Liquidity and Stall Federal Reserve Action

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Crypto market pressure mounts as the Fed holds rates amid sticky inflation and rising unemployment claims.
  • BlackRock recently restricted investor withdrawals, signaling that liquidity tightness has reached major financial players
  • Binance recorded a monthly stablecoin netflow of -$2B, though this marks an improvement from -$6.7B in mid-February. 
  • Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilization, but a confirmed recovery requires stablecoin flows to turn consistently positive. 

Crypto market conditions remain under strain as broad macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on risk assets.

Sticky inflation, resilient demand, and a fresh rise in unemployment are complicating the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report showed job cuts that far exceeded expectations.

Liquidity remains tight across financial markets, creating pressure in both traditional and digital asset sectors. Investors are navigating this uncertainty with growing caution.

Federal Reserve Stuck Between Inflation and a Softening Labor Market

The Federal Reserve is facing one of its more complex policy settings in recent years. Inflation has remained stubborn even as consumer demand holds relatively steady, making the path toward rate cuts unclear. This tension is further complicated by unemployment beginning to trend higher.

According to analyst Darkfost on X, the latest data is making the Fed’s balancing act even more complicated. With these conflicting economic signals in play, decisive policy action appears unlikely in the near term. The central bank is broadly expected to stay on hold and observe how the situation develops.

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The liquidity squeeze is also spreading beyond smaller financial actors. BlackRock recently moved to limit investor withdrawals due to a shortfall in available liquidity. This step from one of the world’s largest asset managers points to how widely the current tightening has extended.

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For the crypto market, a Federal Reserve in standby mode creates a difficult operating environment. Without monetary easing or a credible pivot signal, risk capital tends to stay on the sidelines. This leaves digital assets particularly exposed as investors continue to favor caution over commitment.

Stablecoin Netflows Reveal the Depth of Crypto’s Liquidity Problem

Stablecoin netflows to exchanges serve as a practical gauge of liquidity conditions within the crypto market. Since the start of 2025, these flows have been broadly negative across major platforms. This pattern suggests that more capital is leaving exchanges than entering them consistently.

Binance currently shows a monthly stablecoin netflow of approximately -$2 billion. Bitfinex records a figure of around -$336 million for the same period.

Compared to mid-February readings of -$6.7 billion and -$443 million, both figures reflect a meaningful moderation in outflows.

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This easing in outflow intensity coincides with Bitcoin showing tentative signs of stabilization near current levels. Still, the trend has not yet turned positive, and recovery remains unconfirmed.

A sustained shift in netflows back to positive territory would be needed to support a more durable market recovery.

Darkfost also noted that liquidity leaving the crypto market is often redirecting toward sectors like oil and precious metals.

For a recovery to take hold, that capital would eventually need to flow back into digital assets. Until macroeconomic conditions become more favorable, the crypto market is likely to stay range-bound.

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Crypto World

Trump Iran War Signals Lift Crypto, Sink Oil Prices

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Trump Iran War Signals Lift Crypto, Sink Oil Prices

Oil prices fell while cryptocurrencies posted modest gains on Monday after US President Donald Trump told reporters that war with Iran could be coming to an end — even as he later ramped up the war rhetoric again on social media.

In a phone interview with CBS News on Monday, Trump made it appear that the war in Iran was wrapping up. The US military claims to have struck more than 3,000 Iranian targets in the first week of operations.

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Donald Trump told CBS News. “If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense,” he added.

The comments saw oil prices fall 28% from their four-year high of $118 on Monday to around $85 in the hours that followed, according to OilPrice.

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Oil prices drop as Trump hints at de-escalation of conflict. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

However, in his latest post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump ramped up the war rhetoric again, stating that “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”

“Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again,” the President added.

“Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!”

Trump’s comments in a Republican congressional fundraising event in Florida on Monday also hinted that the war may still have room to run.

“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” Trump said. “We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”

Crypto will follow other risk assets

Crypto markets are up 3.1% over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin (BTC) reclaiming $70,000, and Ether (ETH) is hovering just above $2,000 at the time of writing.

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Augustine Fan, partner and head of insights at crypto trading software service provider SignalPlus, told Cointelegraph that it is generally “hard to take these headline comments at face value, especially with other members of his [Trump’s] cabinet stating that things are still in the beginning phase, and US military assets still deployed in the region.”

“Crypto prices will continue to follow other risk assets without a fundamental narrative of its own in the near term, and macro leadership will still be driven by oil, which has seen a +$30 turnaround over the span of just 24 hours.”

Related: Bitcoin relief rally faces headwinds as bear market persists: analysts

“We don’t expect the conflict to be resolved any time soon,” he said, adding that “we would expect tradable bounces and BTC to do relatively better as a potential store of value during these times.”

Potential for prolonged uncertainty persists

Meanwhile, Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that if Trump’s claim that the Iran war is almost over proves accurate, “I’m expecting a strong relief rally in crypto, driven by plunging oil prices, eased inflation/geopolitical fears, and renewed risk appetite.”

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However, “doubts persist amid mixed signals from Iran and potential for prolonged uncertainty,” he added.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reportedly responded to Trump by saying that his comments were “nonsense” and “we are the ones that will determine the end of the war.”

Magazine: Bitcoin to outperform gold soon, FBI busts $46M crypto heist: Hodler’s Digest