The squeeze comes from both directions. As Strategy issued more STRC to fund bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations ballooned from about $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion now, a near fourfold jump in under six months.

CryptoQuant noted the reserve needed to reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, for STRC to recover. As such, Strategy reported a $1.1 billion reserve in mid-June.

So its bitcoin offers less of a backstop than its size suggests.

“The company sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 underwater,” CryptoQuant said. “Any forced BTC sale at current prices would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value.”

A forced sale is unlikely soon, though. Strategy is not required to sell bitcoin to defend STRC and can instead raise the dividend or sell new shares to signal it can keep paying, tools it is already using.

CryptoQuant’s prescription is for Strategy to pause its bitcoin buying and rebuild the reserve first, then adopt a systematic approach to timing purchases rather than buying whenever it raises capital.

Strategy cannot simply switch the payments off to save cash. STRC’s dividends are cumulative, meaning any skipped payment still has to be made up later, and CryptoQuant said the company is unlikely to suspend them anyway because doing so would damage its credibility with the preferred holders it needs.

The report is a sharper read than the one Benchmark-StoneX offered on Tuesday.

A wave of selling in the technology sector that emerged earlier this week has weighed on European equities. The trigger was investor concern over the profitability of large-scale debt-funded investments by major US tech companies in AI infrastructure. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell to their lowest levels in more than a week, with semiconductor manufacturers bearing the brunt of the decline.

In Germany, Infineon Technologies (-5.86%), Siemens Energy (-3.93%) and Vonovia (-3.21%) were among the worst performers, while SAP and Airbus ended the session in positive territory, gaining around 2% each. Geopolitical factors also remain in the background: a memorandum signed in June between the United States and Iran has yet to remove uncertainty, with implementation of the agreement still subject to ongoing negotiations.

Technical picture

On the H4 chart of the DAX 40 index (GDAXIm on FXOpen), after peaking around 25,450 at the end of May, price declined towards the 23,970 area, forming a downward trend structure. Following an attempted breakout of the downtrend and a gap on 15 June, the index moved into a sideways range, forming a POC zone at 24,940–24,950 and an upper boundary of the current profile at 25,070, with price now trading between these levels.

The nearest resistance is located around 25,210, which could cap the market if the upper boundary of the profile is breached. Support is seen in the 23,970 area, which could be reached if the lower boundary at 24,460 is broken. Volume remains moderate, confirming the consolidation phase. The RSI and moving averages are at 48, 54 and 54 respectively; the oscillator is below its moving averages, while the averages are converging towards neutral levels, indicating a lack of clear momentum within the current range.

Summary

Pressure on the DAX 40 is driven by a global reassessment of AI infrastructure valuations, which has triggered a sell-off in the semiconductor sector worldwide, including German equities. Price has returned to a balance area after the rebound, while the RSI remaining below its moving averages signals a lack of directional momentum on either side.

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Quick Overview

• Meta is building “Arena,” a forecasting platform enabling users to predict outcomes using points rather than actual currency.
• The platform will encompass political events, sporting matches, cultural happenings, and global news, functioning as a standalone product separate from Instagram and Facebook.
• CEO Mark Zuckerberg has designated Arena as a high-level internal initiative, despite its experimental classification.
• The company previously launched and discontinued a comparable service named Forecast between 2020 and 2022.
• While prediction markets continue expanding rapidly, they’re encountering heightened regulatory oversight concerning gaming regulations and potential market manipulation.

Meta, the organization behind Facebook, is constructing a mobile application named Arena designed as a forecasting platform. The service will enable participants to predict results of actual events spanning electoral contests, athletic competitions, and cultural phenomena. The New York Times reported details from two informed employees, noting the application will employ a points mechanism instead of monetary transactions.

Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg personally directed Arena’s creation, according to sources. The New York Times’ contacts characterized the initiative as simultaneously experimental and strategically significant for the corporation.

Arena will operate as an independent entity distinct from Meta’s current portfolio, which includes Facebook and Instagram. This standalone approach differs from Meta’s typical strategy of incorporating new capabilities into established platforms.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

A Second Attempt at Forecasting

This represents Meta’s second venture into prediction platforms. In 2020, the company introduced Forecast, allowing participants to make predictions about current affairs and developments during the Covid-19 outbreak. The service was discontinued in 2022.

Meta has previously explored cryptocurrency and financial technology initiatives. The company unveiled Libra, a digital currency project, in 2019, which became Diem before being abandoned in 2022. Recently, Meta introduced USDC payment options for content creators in Colombia and the Philippines.

Should Arena launch successfully, it would enter direct competition with established platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, both experiencing substantial growth. Polymarket attracted significant attention throughout the 2024 presidential election cycle, processing billions in transaction volume. With Meta recording 3.56 billion daily active participants across its ecosystem by March 2026, Arena could access an enormous existing user base.

Additional major technology companies have entered the forecasting sector. Coinbase and Kraken have investigated opportunities in this market, while Robinhood has launched event contracts connected to political developments and economic indicators.

Regulatory Challenges Intensify

The forecasting platform sector faces mounting legal challenges across the United States. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission continues disputes with state-level authorities regarding whether specific event contracts constitute illegal gambling activities.

Congress is evaluating proposed legislation addressing insider trading concerns on forecasting platforms. These efforts intensified following allegations against U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who reportedly earned over $400,000 through a Polymarket position related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s potential capture. Van Dyke’s trial is scheduled for December 2026.

Meta hasn’t announced a definitive launch timeline for Arena, nor has the company dismissed the possibility of incorporating real-money wagering features in the future.

SecondFi, a Cardano ecosystem wallet project, said it has traced a recent security incident to its native Cardano web wallet generation software. 

The team said it had contained the issue and paused affected services while it reviewed the full scope.

“We have isolated the root cause of the recent security incident,” said SecondFi in a security update. “The issue was confined to our native Cardano web wallet generation software.”

SecondFi said its on-chain review put the preliminary scale at around 16 million ADA. The team also said it was working with a blockchain security firm on an independent technical review.

SlowMist founder sees larger loss risk

SlowMist founder Cos, also known as Yu Xian, said the damage could be far larger than SecondFi’s early figure. He said the estimate depends on whether two Cardano addresses he tracked are confirmed as attacker wallets.

“The users of this wallet have likely lost over $20 million,” said SlowMist founder Cos in an X post. He said the possible loss may involve more than 129 million ADA and other tokens.

Cos later said the transaction pattern suggested an attacker may have obtained a batch of mnemonic phrases or private keys before moving funds over many hours. He said the transfers appeared to move from larger amounts to smaller ones.

Users wait for final review

SecondFi has not yet released a final technical report or a detailed compensation plan. The project said it would continue to share updates as the independent review confirms the scope and cause.

The case has drawn attention because the issue involves wallet generation, not only a smart contract or front-end error. If key generation fails, wallets created through the affected software may face direct risk.

SecondFi is the successor to Yoroi and was launched by EMURGO as a self-custody neofinance app for spending, trading, earning and saving. Cardano’s official app catalog lists SecondFi as a self-custody platform built by EMURGO.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Cardano has already faced market and ecosystem pressure this month. ADA fell below $0.20 in June, while several Cardano projects and governance fights drew wider attention. At press time, ADA traded at around $0.15, down almost 3% in the past 24 hours.

Security concerns spread beyond Cardano

The SecondFi case adds to a wider run of crypto wallet and platform security issues. In a recent update, crypto.news covered Trezor Safe 7 after Ledger Donjon found a chip flaw, though Trezor said user funds remained safe.

Previously, crypto.news explored Bo Shen’s reopened $42 million wallet hack case. SlowMist had linked that theft to a compromised mnemonic seed phrase, showing how seed phrase exposure can leave lasting recovery problems.

SecondFi users now need to follow only official project channels and avoid support scams. Breach events often trigger fake recovery accounts that ask for seed phrases, private keys or transfers.

The final loss figure remains unconfirmed. For now, SecondFi’s public estimate stands near 16 million ADA, while SlowMist’s Cos says suspected hacker activity could push possible user losses above $20 million.

The U.S. House of Representatives has approved sweeping housing legislation that also contains a temporary prohibition on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), delivering a significant policy victory for lawmakers who have sought to limit central-bank involvement in tokenized money. The measure now moves to President Donald Trump, who is expected to sign the bill into law.

According to the official House roll call, the chamber passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act by a wide margin of 358–32 on Tuesday, following a similarly large vote in the Senate the day before. The bill is designed primarily to address housing affordability, but its CBDC provision—and its stablecoin carve-out—has become the most closely monitored part for the crypto and financial-services sector.

Key takeaways

• The House passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, with a CBDC restriction aimed at preventing the Federal Reserve from issuing or creating a CBDC or substantially similar digital asset until Dec. 31, 2030.
• The ban is not absolute across all crypto activity: the legislation includes a carve-out for certain dollar-denominated stablecoins described as open, permissionless, and private.
• Congressional leaders reached agreement on the bill only after earlier disagreements, indicating that the CBDC language remained a negotiable but preserved feature.
• The legislation now goes to the president for final approval, potentially shaping how financial institutions and crypto firms prepare for compliance over the 2020s.

What the bill does: a time-limited CBDC prohibition

The CBDC clause included in the housing act would bar the Federal Reserve from, “directly or indirectly,” issuing or creating a central bank digital currency—or any digital asset “substantially similar” to a CBDC—until Dec. 31, 2030. While the language is time-bound, it is intended to constrain central-bank experimentation or deployment of a tokenized central-bank form of money during the remainder of the decade.

In practice, such a restriction can influence institutional planning in several ways. Banks and other regulated financial intermediaries typically rely on clear regulatory signals for product development and risk management. By limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to pursue a CBDC initiative through direct issuance or creation, the statute aims to reduce uncertainty for firms that view CBDCs as a shift toward centrally controlled settlement rails.

At the same time, the clause’s “substantially similar” formulation may raise interpretive questions about what qualifies as prohibited activity. Institutions subject to supervision may need to evaluate not only explicit CBDC proposals, but also any related digital-asset products that could arguably be characterized as CBDC-like. That creates compliance demand even without a CBDC being launched.

Stablecoin carve-out: narrowing the scope of the restriction

The act also incorporates a carve-out for crypto stablecoins, permitting “dollar-denominated currency” that is described as open, permissionless, and private. This drafting choice signals a legislative intent to avoid an outright ban on stablecoin functionality while still constraining the central-bank issuance of a tokenized form of fiat.

From a policy perspective, the carve-out may be read as an attempt to separate the stablecoin market—particularly private-sector dollar-linked tokens—from central-bank-issued digital currencies. For compliance teams, this distinction matters because it suggests that the bill focuses on the Federal Reserve’s role rather than imposing a blanket prohibition on stablecoin issuance or use.

However, the carve-out’s descriptors—open, permissionless, and private—could require further interpretation depending on how regulators treat access, governance, and transaction privacy. Regulated firms generally maintain compliance controls around transparency, recordkeeping, and supervisory reporting; “private” systems may require additional legal and operational review to ensure they do not undermine auditability or AML obligations.

Legislative momentum and the path to law

The bill’s rapid movement reflects a last-minute agreement among House and Senate leadership on the broader housing measure. According to reporting by Cointelegraph, the House passage followed a prior Senate vote, with the CBDC language carried through negotiations and preserved from earlier versions.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott praised the outcome, framing it as a victory for families while emphasizing that Congress had delivered on a long-standing policy objective. The inclusion of the CBDC prohibition has been repeatedly pursued by Republican lawmakers for years, including through earlier legislation that did not advance to enactment.

One notable precursor was a CBDC-focused proposal from Representative Tom Emmer, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, introduced in June 2025 and passed by the House in July. Despite clearing the House, it did not move forward in the Senate. The housing bill therefore represents a different legislative route—embedding the CBDC restriction within a must-pass or priority bill—suggesting lawmakers may be using vehicle legislation to achieve digital-asset policy goals when standalone bills stall.

Broader compliance and regulatory implications

For regulated entities, the immediate compliance relevance is the signal the statute sends about congressional boundaries around central-bank digital money. Although the restriction targets the Federal Reserve directly, its presence can affect how other regulators interpret the policy environment in which they supervise payments, tokenized assets, and stablecoins.

Institutions also face a multi-jurisdiction landscape. While the U.S. action is domestic, firms with global operations must continue planning for foreign frameworks such as the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regime. Differences in approach—particularly around token classification, issuer obligations, and stablecoin rules—mean the U.S. CBDC ban may not harmonize with European requirements for reserve management, authorization, and ongoing disclosures.

On enforcement and risk, the bill does not replace existing AML/KYC expectations or consumer-protection rules for crypto and financial intermediaries. Rather, it modifies one dimension of the policy map: the ability of the Federal Reserve to issue or create a CBDC-like digital asset. Compliance programs must therefore remain focused on counterparty due diligence, transaction monitoring, sanctions screening, and recordkeeping, while also tracking whether any new regulatory guidance emerges to clarify how “substantially similar” assets will be treated.

What to watch next

The measure’s next milestone is presidential approval. After the bill becomes law, market participants and supervised entities will likely focus on interpretive clarity around the “substantially similar” standard and the stablecoin carve-out descriptors, as well as any downstream guidance from regulators. The longer-term uncertainty is how these constraints interact with future legislative efforts in U.S. crypto market structure—areas where Congress is still debating rules for trading, custody, and market conduct.