Crypto raised too much, too fast. Now comes the reckoning

Many projects, he said, raised enormous rounds despite having little revenue and no realistic path to profitability, leaving them dependent on becoming multibillion-dollar businesses simply to justify another financing.

Crypto’s fundraising culture made matters worse.

Unlike most industries, announcing a large raise could boost a project’s token and generate retail attention, creating incentives to present financing in the most flattering possible light.

The headline number could also obscure how firm the financing actually was. Kirkley said Global Settlement Network experienced investors failing to ultimately fund signed commitments, illustrating how announced rounds can differ from cash actually received.

Token governance meets reality

Another experiment now being tested is decentralized governance.

Token ownership did not necessarily translate into active participation, Kirkley said, while governance votes could make it harder for struggling protocols to pivot quickly. “Token holders do not mean active participants in your ecosystem,” he said.

The result is a market increasingly deciding what crypto actually needs.

Kirkley points to stablecoins, neobanks and institutional-grade wallet and settlement infrastructure as emerging winners, while areas including social tokens, memecoins and parts of Web3 gaming face a harsher reckoning.

Bitcoin faces a key support test

The shakeout could intensify if bitcoin BTC$64,298.49 breaks its next major support zone.

Kirkley described the market as a “soft bear market,” but sees support at $61,200 as critical.