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Crypto steadies after selloff while derivatives flash caution signals

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Crypto steadies after selloff while derivatives flash caution signals

Bitcoin and ether (ETH) both rose around 0.9% overnight while the broader altcoin market lagged on Thursday.

BTC was recently trading at $67,000 following a brief touch of $66,000 on Wednesday. Ether, at $1,970 after bouncing off $1,924, is struggling to break through the psychological $2,000 price level.

Volatility has waned since the selloff on Feb. 5. Two subsequent weeks of consolidation have left investors wondering whether this is the calm before another stormy move to the downside, or whether the market is establishing a macro low before rising back toward 2025 levels.

World Liberty Financial’s Mar-a-Lago forum on Wednesday failed to provide a bullish catalyst despite being attended by CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and executives from companies including Goldman Sachs.

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From a macro perspective, bitcoin remains in a downtrend since hitting a record high of $126,600 in early October. It has notched a series of lower highs and lower lows with periods of choppy consolidation in between each major move.

Derivatives positioning

  • Market dynamics have stabilized with open interest holding at $15.38 billion.
  • That marks a transition from a leverage cleanup to a steady floor.
  • Retail sentiment shows a subtle rebound with funding rates flipping flat to positive (Binance back at 4%), while institutional conviction remains anchored with the three-month annualized basis persisting at 3%.
  • The BTC options market has reached a 50/50 volume equilibrium between calls and puts. While the one-week 25-delta skew has edged up to 12%, the implied volatility (IV) term structure remains in short-term backwardation.
  • The front-end spike in the IV curve confirms that traders are still paying a “panic premium” for immediate protection, even as longer-dated tenors stabilize near 49%.
  • Coinglass data shows $218 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 77-23 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($75 million), ETH ($53 million) and others ($22 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
  • The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $67,400 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price rise.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market is starting to suffer in the low-liquidity trading environment.
  • Shares of lost more than 10% of their value after selling off during Wednesday’s event in a classic “sell the news” move.
  • Axie Infinity (AXS) is retesting its Feb. 6 lows after falling 5.9% since midnight UTC.
  • Lending platform Morpho’s native MORPHO token has now given back all of Wednesday’s gains, trading at $1.39 after shedding 4.2% of its value overnight.
  • A whopping 97 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, not including stablecoins or tokenized gold tokens, are in the red over the past 24 hours as the market remains in “extreme fear” territory.
  • The fear and greed index is currently at 11/100, up from February’s low of 6/100.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s ‘No Direction’ Action May Lead To Bigger Breakout: Analyst

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Adoption

Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation below $70,000 may be paving the way for a more significant rally, according to a crypto analyst.

“The longer it lasts, the heavier the breakout will be,” MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in an X post on Friday.

“Bitcoin remains stagnant in this area, which means that there’s literally no direction,” van de Poppe said, adding that he is eyeing Bitcoin (BTC) breaking through $71,000, a level the asset hasn’t reached since March 26.

Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range

Since reaching a yearly low of $60,000 on Feb. 6, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range between $60,000 and $74,000. Bitcoin is trading at $66,890 at the time of publication, down 8.25% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Adoption
Bitcoin is down 7.63% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Crypto analyst Ted said that $60,000 “wasn’t the bottom” in an X post on Friday. “This doesn’t mean another 50% crash will happen,” he said, adding that “there’ll be one final capitulation before the bottom.”

Van de Poppe’s optimistic call comes amid sentiment toward the broader crypto market being down. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall sentiment in the crypto market, stayed within “Extreme Fear” territory on Saturday, recording a score of 11.

“Deeper bear” for Bitcoin still on the cards

While van de Poppe is watching for a potential reversal as Bitcoin continues to consolidate, other analysts are more skeptical.

Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said in an X post on Mar. 30 that there is a “very good chance we get a deeper bear due to a breakdown of the secular bull market in global macro.”

Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target

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Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently told Cointelegraph that he doesn’t anticipate Bitcoin reaching a new price high in 2026.

“Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027,” he added.

Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter