Donald Trump has a gas problem

Labor Day 2026 was the most expensive Labor Day at the pump in American history, with US gas prices averaging $4.15 a gallon.

Donald Trump took the occasion to reiterate his “below $2” promise that he’s repeated for two years.

This time, unlike in 2024 and many times over the past two years, he’s made his promise contingent on winning the war in Iran.

Trump posted his new forecast on Monday: “Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon,” which has the same target that he has failed to achieve since 2024.

In reality, Americans are paying record prices for gasoline this week above $4, breaking even higher than a 2012 Labor Day crisis of $3.82.

From campaign rallies to his State of the Union address to posts to Truth Social, Trump has repeatedly promised cheaper gasoline. For two years, numbers on the pump have moved the other way.

Donald Trump promised $2 a gallon gasoline to win votes

By late 2024, the $2 a gallon promise was already a Trump campaign trail catchphrase.

On August 19, 2024, Trump told rally attendees that gasoline would “drop by more than 50% within the first 12 months” of his presidency. It hasn’t.

By September 2024, at the Economic Club of New York, he promised gasoline below $2 a gallon. Everything else, from utility bills to groceries to housing, was supposed to follow.

All of those household expenses have become more expensive.

At a Wilmington, North Carolina rally that September, he told voters, “We will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down, you can get very angry at me if we don’t do it, within 12 months, your energy prices will be cut in half.”

Gasoline averaged $3.29 a gallon in the first week of September. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan gave Trump’s $2 pledge “a zero percent chance.”

In May 2025, Trump inaccurately insisted, “Gasoline just broke $1.98 a Gallon, lowest in years.” Fact-checkers noted that no state averaged below $2.60 at the time of that claim, with most US drivers paying above $3.

In October 2025, Trump predicted, “You’re gonna see $2 gasoline pretty soon.”

At his February 24, 2026 State of the Union speech, Trump declared gasoline “is now below $2.30 a gallon in most States and, in some places, $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great State of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.”

The actual average was near $3 that week. Only eight of roughly 150,000 stations sold gas under $2 per gallon.

Read more: Opinion: The failures and follies of Trump’s crypto White House

Blaming Iran for high gas prices

Four days later, the US joined Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, opening Operation Epic Fury, spiking gasoline prices higher.

On March 10, 2026, Trump’s White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt promised Americans “will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly” after the war. 

Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there was a “very good chance” of sub-$3 gas by summer.

On March 30, Leavitt dismissed climbing gas prices as “short-term price fluctuations.”

By April 15, the national average reached $4.11 a gallon. That day, Trump’s press secretary said, “Look at how gas prices decreased over the past year since this president was in office.”

On May 7, the national average had hit $4.55. That day, Trump said, “Gas prices have come down today. Have you looked? They’ve come down very substantially today.”

Days later, he vowed, “You’re going to see gasoline and oil drop like a rock” once the war in Iran ended.

During a speech on June 23, Trump promised, “Oil is going to come charging down.”

On June 24, he posted that customers were being “gouged” at the gas pump and that criminal law enforcement officers at the DOJ should “immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down.”

He added, “We should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 right now at the pump. But we’re higher than that.” Indeed, gas pumps were actually averaging $3.93. 

On June 29, he posted that retailers should “start targeting around the $2.50 a gallon number.” They haven’t.

By July 1, he declared that prices would soon return to “the record low prices Americans enjoyed at the pump” before the “very successful ‘excursion’ in Iran.”

On August 4 he told Fox News that gasoline costs were “all coming down now,” even though costs are above $4 per gallon.

For the first time, the national average gasoline price has stayed above $4 all August. No previous August had averaged more than 2022’s prior record of $3.97.

Trump’s Venezuela oil deal, announced August 28, accompanied a post from Trump that his deal would “substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future.” 

NYU’s Amy Myers Jaffe said the deal, in reality, is “not going to do anything to change the price of gasoline at the retail station for Labor Day weekend.” 

Its benefits, she suggested, belonged to the more distant future.

As of publication time, AAA’s national average still reads $4.15 per gallon.

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