Crypto World
Equity, oil and bond markets have freaked out. Bitcoin traders have not.
The bitcoin price has remained relatively unscathed during the two‑week war with Iran. What’s more impressive is that its key volatility metrics have also held steady, a sign that crypto traders are less fearful than those in traditional markets such as equities, oil and bonds.
Tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel broke into open conflict on Feb. 28, damaging oil infrastructure across the Middle East and disrupting tanker flows. Analysts warned that the turmoil could trigger massive price volatility and fear-driven hedging across asset classes.
So far, they have been partially wrong.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has remained remarkably steady, holding between 55% and 60%, according to TradingView data. Implied volatility reflects the demand for options, so the stability suggests traders have not been aggressively buying put options, which hedge against price declines.
Traders in traditional markets, however, have freaked out and been chasing those options, as evidenced by spikes in their respective volatility indexes.
The equities gauge, the VIX — which measures the expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 based on options prices — averaged just above 20% before the conflict. It jumped to over 32% on March 6 and remained elevated near 26% on Monday.
Cboe’s crude oil volatility index, OVX, surged to more than 100% from 64%. MOVE, which tracks volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, rose to 85% from 73%, hitting a high of 95% at one point, reflecting broad-based market uncertainty. The volatility index for gold, traditionally seen as a haven during troubled times, held steady above 30%.
The divergence between the bitcoin and traditional market indexes matters. Asset prices can be noisy and affected by erratic flows, but volatility indicators often provide a clear picture of investor sentiment, especially the demand for hedging against downside risks. By that measure, BTC traders appear calm.
One possible explanation is that the crypto sentiment was already unsettled before the Iran conflict. Bitcoin’s price plunged from an all‑time high above $126,000 in October 2025 to the low $60,000s in subsequent months, a drawdown that shook out many bulls and forced others to hedge against further declines.
In that context, the Iran war has been less of a shock to the crypto market than to stocks and other markets, which traded near record highs or were calm in the weeks leading up to the conflict.
According to an analysis by bitcoin-focused financial firm River, the cryptocurrency has averaged double-digit returns over 60-day periods during multiple geopolitical events since 2020.
History is repeating itself. Bitcoin has rallied more than 10% to $74,000 in two weeks, according to CoinDesk data.
All things considered, the message is clear: BTC has held steady when it mattered the most. It remains to be seen if the stability persists.
Crypto lobbyists, banks, and the White House are circling a fragile compromise on stablecoin yields that could finally unstick the Clarity Act and set the rules for “digital dollar” rewards in the U.S.
Summary
- Crypto and banking lobbyists have reopened talks on stablecoin yields under the Clarity Act, with insiders signaling a possible breakthrough this month.
- A forthcoming White House report is expected to lean pro-crypto on stablecoin yields, even as banks warn of deposit flight and push to curb passive rewards.
- If the yield dispute clears, lawmakers are set to pivot the Clarity Act fight toward DeFi, tokenization, and token classification later this year.
The long‑running clash between U.S. crypto firms and banks over how stablecoin yields should be regulated appears to be entering its endgame, as both sides quietly review a fresh compromise under the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in Washington this month. According to policy newsletter Crypto In America, “the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution,” with several informed sources saying negotiators have launched a new round of talks around updated text. Odds trackers quoted by Coingape now put the bill’s chances of passing this year at roughly 64%, up sharply since February.
Earlier drafts pushed by senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks had drawn fire from large industry players, with Coinbase and Stripe among those warning that an outright ban on passive stablecoin yields would gut key revenue lines and crimp innovation. Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal recently told FinTech Weekly that a deal on yields is “very close,” even as the March 23 draft still “bans passive yield on stablecoin balances directly or indirectly and permits only narrowly defined activity‑based rewards.” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has accused big banks of “undermining” President Trump’s crypto agenda by backing language that would ban the 4–5% stablecoin yields underpinning an estimated $1.35 billion in annual revenue for the exchange. In a previous crypto.news story, Armstrong argued that allowing such payouts simply passes through Treasury returns already required under the 2025 GENIUS Act, which mandates that payment stablecoins be fully backed by cash or short‑term U.S. government debt.
A still‑unpublished White House research report on stablecoin yields is widely expected to conclude that banks should “not view stablecoin yield offerings as a competitive threat,” according to comments by White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. Witt told Yahoo Finance that reward programs on fully backed stablecoins “do not undermine the banking industry’s business model,” framing the fight as a chance for both sectors to coexist rather than a zero‑sum battle. Yet banking groups remain aggressive: community banks have warned Congress that yield‑style stablecoins could siphon “billions from insured deposits,” while some Wall Street institutions argue that interest‑bearing stablecoins function as “shadow deposits” that could drain as much as $500 billion from the system by 2028.
If the yield question is finally neutralized in committee later this month, lawmakers and lobbyists expect the Clarity Act debate to pivot to unresolved issues around DeFi rules, tokenization regimes, and which tokens fall under securities law versus commodities law, as detailed in prior crypto.news coverage of the bill. With stablecoins like USD Coin, which maintains a $70‑plus billion market capitalization and trades near $1 on crypto.news price trackers, now central to both payments and on‑chain yield strategies, the outcome of the Clarity Act’s sprint through the Senate Banking Committee will help decide how far U.S. investors can go in chasing returns on “digital dollars” without leaving the banking system behind.
Key points:
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Bitcoin rose above the $70,000 level on Monday, but analysts remain skeptical, expecting a drop below the $60,000 support.
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Several major altcoins have bounced off their supports, indicating demand at lower levels.
Buyers pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above the $70,000 level, but failed to sustain the breakout. That suggests the bears have not given up and are trying to retain control. Select analysts believe that BTC is likely to dip below its $60,000 low before bottoming out.
Another negative view came from Glassnode, which said in its recent report that its Long-Term Holder Realized Loss metric, which tracks losses locked in by investors who held coins for more than six months before selling, suggests the selling pressure may not have exhausted. The 30-day simple moving average of the indicator at $200 million per day needs to drop to levels below $25 million for the base formation to begin.
Among all the bearishness, there is a silver lining for the bulls. According to crypto sentiment platform Santiment, social media platforms recorded five bearish BTC comments for every four BTC bullish comments, the most since Feb. 28.
That is a good sign as markets typically move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectation, suggesting “things can turn positive sooner rather than later,” Santiment added.
Could buyers extend the recovery in BTC and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has pulled back to the 20-day exponential moving average (6,601), indicating solid buying at lower levels.
Sellers will attempt to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA, but if the bulls prevail, the index may rise to the 50-day simple moving average (6,777). Sellers are expected to pose a strong challenge at the 50-day SMA.
On the downside, the bears will have to yank the price below the 6,316 level to signal the resumption of the corrective phase. The next support to watch out for on the downside is the 6,147 level.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($99.59) and the 100.54 overhead resistance.
Sellers are attempting to pull the price below the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the index may decline to the 50-day SMA (98.44). That suggests the index may trade inside the large range between 95.55 and 100.54 for a while longer.
Buyers will have to maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to retain control. If they do that, the possibility of a break above the 100.54 level increases. The index may then start a new up move to the 102 level and subsequently to the 103.54 level.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC closed above the moving averages on Sunday, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
The flattish moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price sustains above the moving averages, the bulls will attempt to drive the BTC/USDT pair above the $72,000 resistance. If they succeed, the BTC price may reach the $74,508 to $76,000 resistance zone.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will strive to pull the pair below the support line, invalidating the bullish setup. That opens the doors for a decline to the $62,500 to $60,000 support zone.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) closed above the moving averages on Sunday, clearing the path for a rally to the $2,200 resistance.
Sellers will attempt to halt the recovery at the $2,200 level, but if the buyers pierce the resistance, the ETH/USDT pair may march to the $2,400 resistance. The bulls will have to propel the ETH price above the $2,400 level to start a sustained recovery to $2,800 and then to $3,050.
Alternatively, if the ETH price turns down sharply from the $2,200 level and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may consolidate for some time. The support of the range is at the $1,916 level.
BNB price prediction
BNB’s (BNB) bounce off the $570 level has reached the moving averages, where the bears are expected to step in.
If the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, the BNB/USDT pair risks breaking below the $570 level. If that happens, the BNB price may resume the downtrend and plummet to the $500 level.
Instead, if buyers drive the price above the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the $570 to $687 range for a few more days. Buyers will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the $687 level.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) turned up from the crucial $1.27 support on Sunday, indicating that the bulls are aggressively defending the level.
The bulls will have to secure a close above the 50-day SMA ($1.39) to improve the prospects of a rally to the $1.61 level and later to the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern.
On the contrary, if the XRP price turns down sharply from the moving averages and breaks below $1.27, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The XRP/USDT pair may plunge to the $1.11 level and eventually to the support line near the $1 level.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) has been oscillating inside the $76 to $98 range for several days, indicating a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
If buyers push the price above the moving averages, the SOL/USDT pair may ascend to the $98 resistance. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $98 level in an attempt to keep the SOL price inside the range.
The next trending move is expected to begin on a close above $98 or below $76. If buyers thrust the price above the $98 resistance, the pair may surge to the $117 level. Conversely, a close below the $76 support might sink the pair to the $67 level.
Related: First real bull signal since 2025? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) remains stuck inside a tight range between the 50-day SMA ($0.09) and the $0.09 level, signaling a balance between supply and demand.
Buyers will gain the upper hand on a close above the moving averages. The DOGE/USDT pair may rally to the $0.11 level and subsequently to the $0.12 resistance. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the pair may swing between $0.12 and $0.09 for a while.
If the DOGE price turns down from the moving averages and breaks below the $0.09 level, it signals that the bears have seized control. The pair may slump to the $0.08 level and thereafter to the $0.06 level.
Hyperliquid price prediction
Buyers are attempting to maintain the Hyperliquid (HYPE) price above the 20-day EMA ($37.03) but are facing strong resistance from the bears.
If the HYPE price closes above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the lower levels continue to attract buyers. The HYPE/USDT pair may then rally to $41.59 and, after that, to the $44 level.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($34.48). The pair may then witness a deeper correction to the $30 level.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) closed above the $0.25 level on Sunday, signaling that the bears are losing their grip.
There is resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.26), but if the bulls overcome it, the ADA/USDT pair may reach the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern. Sellers are expected to defend the downtrend line, as a close above it signals a potential short-term trend change.
The $0.22 level is the crucial level to watch out for on the downside. If the support breaks down, the ADA price may start the next leg of the downtrend to the support line near the $0.16 level.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
MicroStrategy acquired 4,871 Bitcoin (BTC) for approximately $329.9 million at an average price of $67,718, buying aggressively below its own cost basis while nearly every other corporate buyer has gone silent.
The purchase lifts Strategy’s total holdings to 766,970 BTC. The firm has now spent roughly $58.02 billion to accumulate Bitcoin, at an average of $75,644 per coin.
MicroStrategy Is Buying When Nobody Else Will
The headline number is modest by Strategy’s own standards. Earlier in 2026, the company made its largest single purchase of the year, 22,337 BTC for $1.57 billion.
Yet the context around the latest purchase tells a different story.
Over the past 30 days, Strategy purchased roughly 45,000 BTC. Every other publicly traded treasury company combined added just 1,000 BTC in the same period.
Non-Strategy corporate purchases have dropped 99% from their August 2025 peak, when the wider cohort bought 69,000 BTC in a single month.
MicroStrategy now holds approximately 76% of all Bitcoin on publicly traded corporate balance sheets. The company added around 90,000 BTC year-to-date, while all other treasury firms combined contributed a net 4,000 BTC.
That concentration makes each new Strategy filing less about volume and more about conviction.
The firm is stacking at prices well below its blended average, effectively pulling down its cost basis while competitors sit on the sidelines.
The $67,718 average purchase price matters more than the quantity. It sits almost $8,000 below Strategy’s all-in average of $75,648, meaning every coin added at this level improves the firm’s overall position.
What Makes This the Loudest Signal
MicroStrategy’s market-cap-to-net-asset-value ratio sits around 0.85, meaning its equity trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
That dynamic raises questions about whether continued share issuance dilutes existing shareholders. However, Saylor and his team are betting that consistent below-average buying will vindicate the approach over time.
Meanwhile, the gap between Strategy and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has narrowed to roughly 15,000 BTC.
IBIT held approximately 782,475 BTC as of this writing, up only about 8,484 BTC year-to-date, compared to Strategy’s 90,000 BTC surge.
Strive Follows the MicroStrategy Playbook
Strategy is not entirely alone. Strive Inc. (Nasdaq: ASST), the Bitcoin treasury firm founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, separately announced the purchase of 113 BTC for $7.75 million at an average cost of roughly $68,577 per coin. That brings Strive’s total holdings to 13,741 BTC as of April 2.
The scale differs dramatically, but the signal rhymes. Strive also bought below its historical average and continues to add while most corporate buyers have paused.
In March, the firm purchased $50 million of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, an investment that ties its returns partly to Strategy’s own Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
“We believe Digital Credit could be a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity, and every single update today aims to improve the credit quality and lower the expected volatility profile of our Digital Credit product, SATA,” read an excerpt in the announcement, citing Cole.
Strive accumulated most of its Bitcoin through private placement proceeds and its acquisition of Semler Scientific, which contributed 5,048 BTC.
The firm reported a 22.2% “Bitcoin Yield” in Q4 2025, a proprietary metric tracking the percentage change in Bitcoin per share.
The post MicroStrategy Buys the Dip Again: Why 4,871 BTC Purchase Speaks Loudest Yet appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Korean super app Toss is weighing a custom Layer 1 or Layer 2 blockchain and native token to power its “Money 3.0” stablecoin push as Seoul finalizes a strict digital asset law.
Summary
- South Korean fintech super app Toss is exploring a proprietary blockchain network and native cryptocurrency as part of its “Money 3.0” strategy.
- The firm has not yet chosen between a Layer 1 mainnet or a Layer 2 scaling design, with the decision closely tied to Seoul’s forthcoming Basic Law on Digital Assets.
- The move would deepen Toss’s push into stablecoins and tokenized finance, as the company posts record revenue of about $1.8 billion and prepares for possible overseas expansion.
South Korean payment and banking giant Toss is considering building its own blockchain network and issuing a native cryptocurrency, a move that would extend the super app’s stablecoin and Web3 ambitions into a full-stack digital asset platform, according to reporting from The Block. People familiar with internal discussions told Crypto In America that Toss is weighing whether to launch on a standalone Layer 1 mainnet or pursue a Layer 2 scaling approach, with no final decision yet taken. Insiders added that the architectural choice is being shaped by the progress of South Korea’s Basic Law on Digital Assets, a landmark bill expected to codify rules for token issuance, stablecoins, and crypto ETFs.
Toss, operated by Viva Republica, has rapidly grown from a mobile transfers app into a dominant financial super app with more than 30 million registered users and around 24 million monthly active users as of 2024, offering some 290 services from payments to trading and lending. The Korea Herald reports that Toss generated revenue of roughly $1.8 billion in 2025, up 38% year-on-year, while operating profit surged 270.3% to about $251 million and net profit jumped 846.7% to roughly $151 million. At the 2026 Seoul Blockchain Meetup, Toss corporate development director Seo Chang‑whoon said the company is “moving toward a new ‘Money 3.0’ era centered on blockchain and stablecoins,” outlining a vision in which programmable money makes finance “universal, programmable, verifiable, composable and seamless.”
The Basic Law on Digital Assets—sometimes described by Korean lawmakers as a “foundational” crypto statute—is expected to set strict requirements for stablecoin issuers, including 100% reserve backing in low‑risk assets and potential limits favoring bank‑led consortia. Lawmaker Min Byeong‑deok has called the bill “a significant turning point for the future of digital finance in the Republic of Korea,” arguing that it will finally provide a clear legal base for local firms to issue won‑denominated tokens rather than routing activity overseas. Industry observers say the second half of 2025 through the first half of 2026 could be an “explosive growth window” for Korean stablecoins as payments firms like Toss and rivals such as Kakao Pay and Naver Pay roll out won‑backed tokens and experiment with cross‑border use cases.
For Toss, a proprietary blockchain and native token could serve as the backbone for that strategy, underpinning everything from loyalty and remittances to on‑chain credit products that link its SohoScore small‑business credit model with smart contracts. “By 2026, we aim to complete a borderless financial super app by redesigning money itself—removing boundaries across borders, products, time and entities,” Seo said, framing the firm’s blockchain push as essential infrastructure for the next phase of its growth. Whether Toss ultimately opts for a Layer 1 network or a Layer 2 aligned with existing ecosystems will likely hinge on how far the Basic Law goes in steering stablecoin issuance toward bank‑controlled consortia and what room it leaves for independent fintech‑led chains.
The ETH treasury company posted its largest weekly purchase since December, and will begin trading on the main NYSE board on Thursday.
Tom Lee’s Bitcoin (BTC) mining company turned Ethereum (ETH) digital assset treasury (DAT), BitMine Immersion Technologies, has been approved to uplist from NYSE American to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The company announced the news in a press release today, April 6, alongside its latest ETH purchase and staking data.
The largest Ethereum treasury firm’s move to NYSE is an indicator of growth and maturity for the firm, as the main NYSE board has stricter requirements, including for number of shareholders and float. Generally, the move marks an ascent from small-cap to large-cap status. Trading under the same ticker, BMNR, will move to the NYSE at the open on Thursday, April 9, the release notes.
BMNR shares on NYSE American are up over 6% today on the news, per data from Yahoo Finance, trading near $21.
The uplisting news came alongside BitMine’s weekly treasury update, which showed the company acquired 71,252 ETH in the past week — its largest single-week purchase since the week of December 22, 2025.
Total ETH holdings now stand at 4,803,334 tokens, valued at an average purchase price of $2,123 per ETH. The firm’s combined crypto, cash, and moonshot holdings total $11.4 billion, the release notes.
As of April 6, the company has staked 3,334,637 ETH, worth approximately $7.1 billion, making it the second-largest Etheruem staking entity after Lido, per Dune.
BitMine now owns 3.98% of the total ETH supply, placing it 79% of the way toward its self-described “Alchemy of 5%” target, according to today’s release.
As The Defiant previously reported, the largest DATs, namely BitMine and Michael Saylor’s Strategy, have continued to increase their crypto purchases as markets more broadly stagnate.
Also today, Strategy disclosed its latest weekly Bitcoin purchase, reporting that it has a 4,871 BTC purchased for approximately $329.9 million at an average price of $67,718 per coin. Strategy now holds 766,970 BTC in total, making it the largest DAT by holdings, followed by BitMine.
Spot ETH is up nearly 6% as well today as the broader crypto markets rally. ETH is trading near $2,155 and is currently the best performing asset among the top-ten large-caps on the daily and weekly timeframes.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Bitcoin price correlation with Binance Research‘s Global Easing Breadth Index, a composite tracking monetary policy direction across 41 central banks, has flipped from +0.21 before spot ETF approval to −0.778 in 2026.
That isn’t a weakening of the old relationship; it’s a complete structural inversion, nearly three times stronger in the opposite direction.
The new Binance Research case study argues that Bitcoin has evolved from a macro lagging receiver to a leading pricer, front-running Fed interest rate decisions rather than reacting to them, and increasingly indifferent to ETF flow headlines that once moved the market within hours.
If that thesis holds, the entire macro playbook that active traders have used for the past decade breaks down.
CPI prints, FOMC language, and rate trajectory models were once the primary variables in any serious BTC position. In 2026, Binance’s data suggests those triggers have been demoted, and knowing what replaced them is now the edge.
- Correlation inversion: Bitcoin’s correlation with Binance’s Global Easing Breadth Index shifted from +0.21 before ETF approval to −0.778 in 2026-a complete structural reversal, not a gradual drift.
- Institutional positioning lead: ETF-driven institutional investors now build BTC positions 6–12 months ahead of Fed policy changes, making Bitcoin a forward-looking price discovery mechanism rather than a reactive risk asset.
- ETF market scale: Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $56 billion by Q1 2026, with assets under management at $87.5 billion-approximately 6% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.
- Flow reversal signal: After $6.4 billion in outflows from November 2025 through February 2026, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $1.3–$2.5 billion in March 2026 inflows, suggesting institutions are treating dips as accumulation opportunities.
- Supply shock trajectory: Bitwise projects ETFs will purchase more than 100% of all new Bitcoin issuance in 2026, a demand-supply dynamic with no historical precedent in BTC’s market structure.
- On-chain confirmation: Exchange reserve depletion and elevated LTH supply corroborate the Binance macro data-internal accumulation metrics, not Fed language, are now the load-bearing price drivers.
Discover: The Best Crypto Presales Live Right Now
What the Binance Data Actually Shows – and Why the Old Correlation Is Now Running in Reverse
The −0.778 correlation reading between Bitcoin price and the Global Easing Breadth Index is the headline number, but the mechanism behind it is what matters.
Before the January 2024 launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, retail traders dominated BTC price discovery, reacting immediately to macro signals, selling on rate-hike language, and buying when easing breadth widened.
That reflex produced a mild positive correlation: more global central bank easing led to greater risk appetite, and BTC benefited.
Institutional investors entering through ETF vehicles operate on a fundamentally different timeline. Binance Research documents that these players now build positions 6–12 months ahead of expected policy changes, effectively pricing in Fed decisions before official announcements arrive.
The result: when the Fed finally eases, BTC has already moved, and the correlation appears negative to any observer measuring it in real time.
On-chain data reinforces the structural argument. Long-term holder (LTH) supply has remained at historically elevated levels through Q1 2026 despite price volatility, consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.
Exchange reserve depletion continues-Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has trended lower across the cycle, a signal that coins are moving into cold storage rather than toward sell-side liquidity.
The MVRV ratio, which compares market cap to realized cap, has held below 2.0 throughout early 2026, indicating the market remains well below the euphoria zone that has historically preceded major tops.
Together, these on-chain metrics describe a market structure where supply is contracting and patient capital is dominant-conditions that make BTC less reactive to short-term macro noise, not more.
The data makes the decoupling thesis concrete: Bitcoin isn’t ignoring the Fed because traders have become irrational. It’s ignoring the Fed because the marginal buyer has changed, and the new marginal buyer already knows what the Fed is going to do.
What the Decoupling Means for How You Position in Q2 2026
The practical consequence of the Binance thesis is a signal hierarchy reorder. Traders who treat CPI prints and FOMC meetings as tier-one BTC catalysts are using outdated inputs.
The new signal stack, as the data implies, runs: ETF weekly flow data first, LTH supply and exchange reserve metrics second, legislative and regulatory developments third, and Fed language a distant fourth.
The bull case requires three conditions to remain intact: ETF inflows sustain above $1 billion per month through Q2, exchange reserves continue declining (currently trending toward multi-year lows), and LTH supply holds above 14.5 million BTC without a significant distribution event.
If those three hold simultaneously, the supply-demand math supports a price structure where $90,000 functions as support rather than resistance, and the Bitwise supply-shock thesis moves from projection to observable market dynamic.
The bear case activates if institutional conviction breaks. A return to sustained ETF outflows, specifically two consecutive months above $2 billion net negative, would signal that the marginal buyer has stepped back, removing the demand anchor that has held the decoupling structure in place.
In that scenario, macro sensitivity could partially reassert, and the $70,000–$72,000 on-chain support band identified in current technical analysis becomes the first meaningful test level.
Binance Research put it plainly: a peak in global easing may already be old news for BTC. Watch monthly ETF flow totals and LTH supply in Q2; those two numbers will confirm or invalidate the decoupling thesis faster than any Fed statement will.
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The post Binance Case Study: Bitcoin Price Is Decoupling From the Fed and ETFs in 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.
MicroStrategy’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed holder of Bitcoin, resumed new purchases last week after reporting no buys in the final week of March. The company disclosed it acquired 4,871 BTC for $329.9 million, at an average price of $67,718 per coin, according to an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
With these additions, Strategy’s Bitcoin stash climbs to 766,970 BTC, acquired for roughly $58 billion. The acquisitions come as Bitcoin traded below Strategy’s cost basis at times, including a dip in early February that marked the first time since late 2023 BTC traded under the fund’s average purchase price.
Key takeaways
- Strategy bought 4,871 BTC for $329.9 million in the latest week, at an average of $67,718 per BTC, bringing total holdings to 766,970 BTC (cost about $58 billion).
- The company’s first-quarter 2026 results show a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on digital assets, offset by a $2.42 billion deferred tax benefit.
- A deferred tax asset related to unrealized losses totaled $1.73 billion as of March 31, offset by a $1.73 billion valuation allowance, with an expectation of an additional $0.5 billion valuation allowance.
- Strategy purchased roughly 54,000 BTC since February 2, with March deliveries among its largest weekly buys, contributing to 89,316 BTC bought in Q1 2026 for about $6.3 billion.
- The company is expanding its at-the-market program with new $21 billion offerings for Stretch (STRC) and Common A (MSTR) stock, while terminating and replacing the prior STRK offering with a new $2.1 billion STRK program; recent share sales generated hundreds of millions of dollars in proceeds.
Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin accumulation amid tax and valuation dynamics
The latest 8-K filing confirms that Strategy’s accumulation activity continued into the first week of April, underscoring the management’s commitment to Bitcoin as a long-term treasury reserve. The 4,871 BTC purchased last week equate to an average entry price below Strategy’s historical cost basis, reinforcing a pattern of stepping into dips rather than reducing exposure. Since February 2, the company has added approximately 54,000 BTC, signaling persistent confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value and a core part of its balance sheet strategy.
cumulatively, Strategy has spent about $6.3 billion on 89,316 BTC in the first quarter of 2026. This level of buying activity sits against a backdrop of continued price volatility in the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin has experienced retracements and recoveries within a wide trading range.
First-quarter results: unrealized losses and tax accounting under scrutiny
Strategy reported a sharp contrast in its Q1 2026 results: an unrealized loss on its digital assets of $14.46 billion, paired with a $2.42 billion deferred tax benefit. The company explained that the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings remains below its cost basis, triggering the reported deferred tax asset tied to unrealized losses.
As of March 31, the deferred tax asset related to these unrealized losses stood at $1.73 billion, offset by an equivalent $1.73 billion valuation allowance. Management indicated it expects to establish an additional $0.5 billion valuation allowance against these deferred tax assets as fair value movements continue to unfold.
The accounting picture underscores how Strategy’s mark-to-market Bitcoin position interacts with its tax posture, a dynamic closely watched by investors given the volatility of Bitcoin pricing and the company’s ongoing accumulation strategy.
ATM program expansion and latest share-offering moves
Beyond its Bitcoin purchases, Strategy disclosed plans to refresh its at-the-market (ATM) financing program, signaling a broader equity capital strategy alongside its crypto holdings. The company outlined a new $21 billion offering of Stretch (STRC) stock and a new $21 billion offering of Common A (MSTR) stock. It also terminated its previous Strike (STRK) program and launched a new $2.1 billion STRK offering. The aggregate figures reflect the total remaining capacity under both existing programs plus the newly added issuances. In practice, issuances and sales may proceed once existing capacity is exhausted or as market conditions permit.
Recent stock activity illustrates the program’s tempo: from March 30–31, Strategy sold roughly 2.28 million STRC shares and 582,550 MSTR shares, generating about $299.3 million in net proceeds. In the first five days of April (April 1–5), it sold an additional 1,000,000 STRC shares and 593,294 MSTR shares, raising approximately $174.6 million.
These capital movements accompany the ongoing Bitcoin strategy, signaling a dual approach to liquidity management: leveraging equity markets while continuing to deploy capital into BTC.
According to the 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy’s actions reflect a disciplined, long-horizon approach to its Bitcoin holdings, balanced against tax considerations and capital-raising needs. The filing provides a detailed window into how the company navigates the interplay between crypto markets, accounting rules, and shareholder value creation.
As investors parse Strategy’s latest moves, several questions loom: will Bitcoin’s price trajectory influence the pace of further BTC purchases or redemptions? How will additional valuation allowances affect Strategy’s reported tax position in upcoming quarters? And how will the ATM program evolve in light of market conditions and the company’s broader capital strategy?
Readers should monitor Strategy’s next quarterly update for any shifts in its purchase cadence, cost-basis dynamics, and the balance between crypto exposure and equity-financing activity as the firm maintains its distinctive, long-term treasury strategy.
XRP price trades at $1.33 on April 6, up 3% over the past 24 hours, but sitting inside a developing head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. The right shoulder is forming, and any rally from here needs to push through a 1.24 billion token supply wall overhead.
The problem is that the buying pressure, which would normally drive that kind of move, has halved since late March, raising the question of whether the current bounce has enough fuel to absorb the supply or will simply complete the bearish pattern.
A Right Shoulder Is Forming, and Two EMAs Stand in the Way
The daily chart shows a clear head and shoulders structure. The left shoulder formed in late February, the head peaked near $1.60 in mid-March, and the right shoulder is currently developing as XRP price consolidates around $1.33. The neckline sits near $1.26. A confirmed break below that level would activate a near 19% measured move.
Before the bearish pattern can be invalidated, XRP needs to reclaim two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are trend indicators that give greater weight to recent price action. The 20-day EMA sits at $1.35 and the 50-day at $1.42. The last clean reclaim of the 20-day EMA happened on March 13, after which prices rallied 15.26% and also recaptured the 50-day.
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A daily close above $1.35 would reclaim the 20-day EMA and provide the first signal of short-term strength. However, any price peak that stays below the head at $1.60 remains inside the head and shoulders structure and risks forming the right shoulder rather than breaking the pattern. The supply data reveals exactly where the resistance begins (as the shoulder develops) and why absorbing it will be difficult.
1.2 Billion Tokens and Fading Conviction
The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, which maps how much XRP supply was last acquired at each price level, identifies two critical clusters that frame the current setup.
The first sits between $1.31 and $1.32, where approximately 719 million XRP has its cost basis. This cluster acts as the floor supporting the right shoulder. As long as these holders remain confident and do not sell, the XRP price maintains its current level.
If this cluster begins distributing, the right shoulder would erode quickly and the neckline at $1.26 comes under direct threat.
The second and larger cluster sits between $1.45 and $1.47, holding approximately 1.24 billion XRP. This is the overhead wall that any meaningful rally must absorb. These holders acquired their positions at higher prices. And they might look to exit at or near breakeven if price approaches their cost basis. Pushing through 1.24 billion tokens worth of potential selling pressure requires sustained and aggressive buying.
The Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks whether tokens are moving onto or off exchanges, reveals whether that buying power exists. A negative reading means more XRP is leaving exchanges than entering, which signals accumulation. The metric peaked at approximately -117 million XRP around late March, indicating strong buying conviction. By April 5, it had dropped to -57 million XRP, a decline of roughly 51%.
The buying pressure that supported the mid-March rally has halved. With 1.24 billion tokens sitting overhead and only half the exchange conviction remaining, the math for absorbing the supply wall becomes significantly harder. If no fresh buying power arrives, the right shoulder could finalize near this $1.45-$1.47 supply cluster zone.
XRP Price Levels Between a Breakout and a Breakdown
The daily price chart with technical levels from the completed swing frames every critical level.
The first hurdle is $1.35, the 0.236 level that closely aligns with the 20-day EMA. A daily close above this would mirror the March 13 reclaim that preceded a 15% rally. Above that, $1.40 and $1.44 come into focus, with $1.48 at the 0.618 level acting as the key confirmation. A close above $1.48 would mean that the 1.24 billion token cluster between $1.45 and $1.47 did not sell or that their selling pressure was absorbed by new demand.
The XRP price would only show genuine strength above $1.60, the head of the pattern. A reclaim of the head would fully invalidate the head and shoulders and shift the structure from bearish to bullish.
On the downside, a failure to reclaim $1.35 keeps the right shoulder intact and $1.26-$1.27 remains directly at risk. A confirmed break below the neckline at $1.26 would activate the 19% measured move and project a drop toward $1.03.
A daily close above $1.48 confirms the rally absorbed the 1.2 billion token wall. That shifts XRP price toward a potential head invalidation. However, a break below $1.26 confirms the pattern and opens a path toward $1.03.
The post XRP Price Rally Needs to Absorb 1.2 Billion Tokens, but Buying Power Is Fading appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
The $0.000022 Window: Choosing BlockDAG Control Over XRP & Pi Network Market Competition
The crypto market in early 2026 is defined by a fascinating split between legacy recovery and fresh market entries. While established players navigate complex technical resistance and regulatory shifts, newer projects are offering structured entry points that bypass traditional market volatility.
Current Pi Network news highlights a struggle to convert technical milestones into price action, and the XRP price today remains locked in a battle with long-term moving averages.
Amidst this backdrop of “wait and see,” BlockDAG (BDAG) has surfaced with a time-sensitive $0.000022 offer, leading many to label it the best crypto to buy for those looking to avoid the friction of open-market competition. This comparative look explores the dynamics of all three.
Pi Network News: Tech Milestones vs. Market Pressure
The latest Pi Network news presents a fascinating dichotomy between developmental progress and bearish market sentiment. While the Pi Core Team recently celebrated a major technical leap, the launch of a Remote Procedure Call (RPC) server on the testnet, the price of PI remains under significant duress.
This new infrastructure is designed to unlock smart contract functionality and potential MetaMask integrations, yet retail demand hasn’t followed suit. Instead, the network is grappling with “sell-side” pressure, as PiScan data reveals deposits exceeding 1.20 million tokens onto exchanges, signaling persistent profit-taking.
Technically, the PI token is hovering precariously above the $0.1736 support level, trading below key moving averages. Despite the promise of a more robust ecosystem, delays in KYC verification and migration frustrations continue to weigh on the community. For PI to avoid a deeper correction toward its February lows, it must bridge the gap between its ambitious backend upgrades and the cautious sentiment of its massive user base.
XRP Price Today: Navigating Resistance & Regulatory Shifts
The XRP price today reflects a delicate balancing act between short-term stabilization and lingering bearish pressure. Currently trading around $1.34, the asset has managed a modest 2.04% gain, yet it remains firmly capped by its major moving averages, including the SMA-20 and SMA-50.
Technical indicators like the RSI in the low 40s and a negative Awesome Oscillator suggest that while downside exhaustion is present, a bullish reversal is not yet in the cards. Analysts expect a sideways drift between $1.32 and $1.39 over the coming days, with a decisive break above $1.45 needed to shift the narrative.
Despite the muted price action, fundamental developments are brewing. Ripple is making strides toward obtaining a national trust bank charter under a new 2026 federal regulatory framework, a move that could redefine its institutional utility.
However, with co-founder Jed McCaleb planning to reallocate $1 billion of his holdings, investors remain cautious. For now, the XRP market is a zone of “wait and see,” as traders watch for technical exhaustion to turn into a genuine recovery spark.
BlockDAG: Why the $0.000022 Entry Makes it the Best Crypto to Buy Now
The clock is ticking on a rare market anomaly that positions BlockDAG as the best crypto to buy for those prioritizing strategy over a scramble. With only days remaining in this phase, the opportunity to secure BDAG at the fixed price of $0.000022 is rapidly closing.
While the asset already reflects a value above $0.20 on CoinMarketCap, this final presale phase allows participants to enter at a fraction of the current market price. This is the fundamental difference between exercising control over your portfolio and fighting against the inevitable competition of open-market trading.
As global exchanges activate and liquidity begins to flow across international borders, the transition from a structured presale to public trading will be swift. In just 96 hours, the price will no longer be defined by a set schedule but by the raw force of global demand. When the floodgates open, the entry points will become tighter and significantly more volatile. By loading your wallet now, you lock in priority and bypass the friction of the upcoming market acceleration.
The momentum is visible, and the target is set. With the project already eyeing a climb toward the $1 milestone, the current $0.000022 entry represents a final moment of calm before the storm of institutional and retail competition.
Choosing to act today means you are no longer just watching the market; you are staying ahead of it. Secure your position, beat the crowd, and join the move before the open market shift changes the game forever.
Key Takeaways
Navigating the current crypto landscape requires a balance between monitoring established trends and identifying unique entry points.
While the latest Pi Network news shows a community waiting for technical utility to manifest in price, and the XRP price today remains tethered to institutional and regulatory hurdles, BlockDAG presents a more direct opportunity. Its $0.000022 presale price offers a level of control that is rare in a market often defined by chaos.
With only days left to act, BlockDAG has emerged as the best crypto to buy for those ready to move before the global exchange activation. Transitioning from a spectator to a priority participant is the key to outperforming the broader market competition.
Presale: https://purchase.blockdag.network
Website: https://blockdag.network
Telegram: https://t.me/blockDAGnetworkOfficial
Discord: https://discord.gg/Q7BxghMVyu
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Opinion by: Dominic Lohberger, chief product officer at Sygnum.
Counterparty risk in crypto markets has always moved in cycles. Exchanges default or get hacked. Standards tighten for a while. Then, complacency quietly returns as losses are forgotten.
What is happening this time is different.
Leading traditional finance players entering crypto must adopt practices from established financial markets. For the first time, the infrastructure exists to enable them to do so. They can mirror assets held with regulated custodians onto trading venues without ever depositing on-exchange.
This is a lasting change in how serious money actually moves through digital assets.
The separation of powers
Consider the mergers and acquisitions deal flow. Ripple deployed $1.25 billion to acquire Hidden Road. Hidden Road is a global multi-asset prime broker. This was the largest acquisition in crypto history. It signalled that institutional trading infrastructure is where value will concentrate.
Standard Chartered is building a crypto prime brokerage under its venture arm. These are infrastructure bets by firms that see where the market is heading.
For most of crypto’s history, exchanges have played every role at once. From trading venues, custodians and clearing houses, exchanges played them all. That conflation of roles was a necessity in Bitcoin’s earliest days. It was never going to survive institutional adoption at scale. The FTX collapse made that risk glaring, and the $1.4 billion Bybit hack reinforced it. The broader patterns of 2025 showed where counterparty exposure became a first-order operational risk. That’s where the separation of custody from execution became a baseline institutional requirement.
In traditional finance, this separation of powers is a bedrock principle. Crypto is finally catching up. A growing number of regulated off-exchange custody solutions now make this possible in practice. They allow institutions to hold assets with a custodian while trading on exchanges, with balances mirrored and settlement automated. Capital efficiency and security no longer have to be traded off against each other. Most market makers, hedge funds and OTC desks use some form of off-exchange custody. What was once considered a cost has become a basic pillar of risk management.
Two models, with different trade-offs
The market now offers two distinct approaches to removing exchange counterparty risk, and they solve different problems.
Off-exchange custody, sometimes called tri-party arrangements, allows traders to hold assets with a third-party custodian while receiving a mirrored balance on the exchange. If the custodian holds those assets segregated and off-balance-sheet, counterparty risk is eliminated. These setups tend to be cost-efficient because the custodian does not need to deploy its own balance sheet.
Prime brokerage is operationally richer. A prime broker acts as an intermediary and offers unified onboarding across exchanges, cross-venue net settlement and leverage. These are critical for market makers running strategies across dozens of venues. That active role means counterparty risk shifts from the exchange to the prime broker. In traditional finance, that risk is backstopped by investment banks with massive balance sheets. In crypto, the largest prime brokers are growing but still carry comparatively modest balance sheets. They’re capable and well-connected, but not yet at the scale of globally systematically relevant investment banks. Some institutional clients are comfortable with that trade-off.
The collateral economics that changed the conversation
The part of this shift that deserves equal attention is how collateral now works. When a custodian is a bank, it can accept traditional financial instruments as collateral, and that changes the economics. An institutional client holding short-dated US Treasurys can pledge them as collateral, mirrored onto an exchange at full loan-to-value. The T-bills never leave the custodian. The custody fees are a mere fraction of the yield this provides. The client earns a net positive return on collateral that protects them from exchange default.
Related: BitGo launches portfolio-based crypto lending platform for institutions
The vast majority of collateral deployed in bank-grade off-exchange custody structures today is in T-bills. When counterparty protection generates yield instead of costing money, the adoption question flips from “should we de-risk?” to “why are we leaving yield on the table?” The exception is strategies like the basis trade, where the client must pledge the underlying asset itself. Even there, holding crypto with an independent custodian reduces the risk surface.
What comes next
The eligible collateral story is expanding fast. Stablecoins are already accepted across multiple off-exchange setups. Tokenized money market funds that accrue yield continuously in real-time are next. The direction is toward multi-asset collateral frameworks that allow institutions to shift margin between venues and ensure security. In crypto, that reallocation can happen in near real-time around the clock.
In the months ahead, more global systemically important banks will enter off-exchange custody. This will rapidly widen the range of accepted collateral. As both models mature, custodians may add more operational tooling. Prime brokers will strengthen their custody frameworks. This will continue until the distinction matters less than the outcome. That outcome is institutional-grade risk management.
The crypto industry spent the better part of a decade debating whether institutions would arrive. They have, and they are not adapting to crypto’s infrastructure. Crypto’s infrastructure is adapting to them. The firms that recognise this shift and build accordingly will define the next era of digital asset markets. The ones that don’t will be left managing yesterday’s risk with yesterday’s tools.
Opinion by: Dominic Lohberger, chief product officer at Sygnum.
This opinion article presents the author’s expert view, and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance. Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.
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