Crypto World
ETFs and Corporate Treasuries Pull Millions of BTC Away From Exchanges
Analysts say Bitcoin increasingly sits inside ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Bitcoin reserves held on centralized exchanges have fallen back to levels last seen in 2019. Data shared by crypto market analyst Dark Fost shows that exchange reserves have been steadily declining since 2022.
This trend has accelerated following the collapse of the FTX exchange.
Bitcoin Supply Migration
In November 2022 alone, more than 325,000 BTC were withdrawn from exchange reserves as investors moved their assets off centralized platforms. As a result of this continued outflow, total BTC reserves on exchanges accessible to retail investors have now dropped to roughly 2.7 million BTC.
Among these platforms, Binance alone accounts for approximately 20% of the remaining reserves. When platforms primarily used by professional investors are included in the analysis, Coinbase Advanced ranks first, holding close to 800,000 BTC. However, this figure is still about 200,000 BTC lower than the level recorded in July 2025.
Dark Fost stated that while the FTX collapse played a major role in encouraging investors to hold assets in private wallets, two additional developments have also contributed to the reduction in exchange balances. The first is the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024. At the time of their introduction, exchange reserves were still above 3.2 million BTC. Since then, ETFs have accumulated around 1.3 million BTC, which represents roughly 6.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply and effectively removes that amount from exchange liquidity.
The second factor is the growth of digital asset treasury companies (DATs) that hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Collectively, these firms now control about 1.1 million BTC, or nearly 5% of the total supply. Both ETF holdings and corporate treasuries represent a growing share of Bitcoin supply held in structured financial vehicles.
“Over the long term, this transformation could play an important role in market liquidity and price formation, even if these structural effects always take time to fully materialize.”
Geopolitical Tensions Halt Breakout
Against this backdrop of changing supply patterns, Bitcoin entered the second week of March under pressure as markets remained focused on escalating tensions in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency recently failed a breakout attempt above $70,000 as the ongoing US-Iran conflict contributed to broader market uncertainty. Despite the pullback, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said BTC’s current price action does not represent a worst-case scenario.
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In his latest post on X, the trader noted that Bitcoin continues to trade within a range but described the performance as relatively strong given the current market conditions. According to him, oil prices surged about 15% on Monday to their highest levels since 2022, while gold and commodities declined, and the Nasdaq fell significantly. Van de Poppe added that if the US stock market opens higher and oil prices begin to correct, Bitcoin could regain momentum toward $70,000.
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The development team that left Electric Coin Company in January to launch Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) has raised over $25 million from the likes of a16z Crypto and Coinbase Ventures to continue building the privacy-focused, self-custodial Zodl wallet.
ZODL was founded by former ECC CEO Josh Swihart and includes the entire engineering and product team that previously worked on the Zodl wallet at ECC. They resigned due to disputes with Bootstrap, the nonprofit that oversees ECC, over how Zcash should function as a privacy protocol.
ZODL said in an X post on Monday that crypto-focused investment firms Paradigm, Winklevoss Capital, Cypherpunk Technologies, Maelstrom, and Chapter One were among the other participants in the $25 million funding round.
Former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan, Silicon Valley investor David Friedberg and Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi also contributed.
ZODL said the widespread backing “reflects strong conviction from some of the most respected investors in crypto, not only in privacy as a principle, but in the continued growth of the Zcash ecosystem,” adding it would use the funds to expand its engineering team.
The open-source Zodl wallet is one of the main infrastructures powering the Zcash ecosystem.
Zodl wallet was initially launched by ECC under Swihart’s leadership as Zashi before ZODL renamed it to Zodl wallet in February.
Zcash jumps nearly 10% over 24 hours
Zcash (ZEC) was one of the better-performing privacy tokens last year, rising nearly tenfold from $55.86 to $527.84 amid renewed interest in privacy-focused protocols.
While ZEC has been impacted by the broader crypto market pullback to start 2026, it increased 4.1% to $217.80 on news of the latest funding round, CoinGecko data shows.
Related: US Treasury report notes legitimate privacy uses for crypto mixers
ZODL said the Zodl wallet facilitated more than $600 million in ZEC swaps since October 2025, while noting that the Zcash shielded pool has grown by over 400% since its launch in 2024.
The Zcash shielded pool is the protocol’s main feature to mix transactions so details of the sender, receiver and amount remain hidden and untraceable.
Magazine: 2026 is the year of pragmatic privacy in crypto — Canton, Zcash and more
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Regulatory authorities in South Korea are intensifying oversight of cryptocurrency platforms as Bithumb—the country’s second-largest exchange by trading volume—faces a potential six-month partial suspension. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has issued a preliminary notice tied to alleged anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer deficiencies, including dealings with unregistered overseas virtual asset service providers and gaps in customer due diligence. In a parallel move, a reprimand was issued to Bithumb’s chief executive, signaling the seriousness of the regulator’s intent. While officials have signaled that a sanctions decision will be refined in March, the action remains at an early stage and could still be adjusted before any final measures are announced. Bithumb has framed the development as not yet final, underscoring that the scope of any sanction could change as the review unfolds.
Key takeaways
- The FIU has issued a six-month partial suspension notice to Bithumb over AML and KYC controls, including concerns about dealings with overseas service providers not registered in Korea and customer due-diligence gaps.
- A reprimand to Bithumb’s CEO accompanies the notice, a move regulators describe as a serious penalty that could influence leadership decisions and future appointments.
- A formal sanctions review is expected later in March, with the potential for adjustments before any final measures are imposed.
- If finalized, the suspension would restrict new users from transferring digital assets off the platform, while other services would presumably remain available to existing customers.
- Background context includes a high-profile miscredit incident during a February promotional event that incorrectly credited 2,000 BTC per user, triggering scrutiny of internal controls and security protocols.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The development comes amid a broader push by South Korean authorities to strengthen AML and KYC standards for crypto platforms, mirroring a global tightening in exchange compliance and risk controls as regulators expand oversight and enforcement actions.
Why it matters
The FIU action against Bithumb highlights how regulators are moving beyond generic compliance rhetoric to enforce concrete consequences for exchanges that fail to meet anti-money-laundering and know-your-customer requirements. The preliminary six-month suspension, if finalized, would directly curtail a gateway for new users to move digital assets off the platform, which could have downstream effects on liquidity and user onboarding for one of Korea’s largest trading venues. While Bithumb emphasized that this step is not a final sanction and that the scope could shift, the message from authorities is clear: robust AML controls are no longer optional in a highly regulated market.
The episode also situates Bithumb within a broader crackdown across the sector. Earlier in 2025, Upbit’s parent company Dunamu faced sanctions including a partial suspension and a substantial fine, underscoring regulators’ willingness to penalize organizational structures and processes that enable noncompliant activity. Korbit, another domestic exchange, received a significant but smaller penalty in the same wave. Taken together, these penalties reflect a policy pivot toward stronger accountability for the crypto ecosystem, particularly around interactions with overseas providers and customer verification processes.
Beyond regulatory signaling, the incident underscores the operational risks exchanges face in maintaining AML/KYC rigor. The February promotional miscredit—where 2,000 BTC per user was credited by mistake, culminating in a total distribution cited as 620,000 BTC—exposed gaps in internal controls and risk monitoring. That event, which occurred during a promotional period, has implications for governance, incident response, and customer trust as authorities scrutinize how platforms manage incentives, security, and compliance at scale. The combination of a potential sanction and a past misstep illustrates why exchanges are prioritizing robust onboarding checks, cross-border provider screening, and transparent reporting to regulators.
What to watch next
- The sanctions decision timetable: a March review by the FIU to finalize whether the six-month partial suspension will become binding and how it will be structured.
- Scope adjustments: authorities may limit or expand restrictions on withdrawals for new users, depending on ongoing assessments of the exchange’s AML/KYC posture.
- Regulatory activity at other exchanges: continued enforcement against Upbit and Korbit could foreshadow broader policy direction for the sector.
- Internal controls and governance responses at Bithumb: any governance changes, risk-management enhancements, or new compliance programs could influence the regulatory outcome and investor confidence.
Sources & verification
- FIU preliminary notice detailing a six-month partial suspension and the associated AML/KYC concerns at Bithumb.
- Bithumb’s public statements noting the action is at the pre-notification stage and that sanctions, if imposed, may evolve.
- Background reporting on a February promotional miscredit that credited 2,000 BTC per user, resulting in a reported distribution of 620,000 BTC.
- Regulatory actions against Upbit’s parent Dunamu, including a partial suspension and a 35.2 billion won fine in 2025, as reported by local sources.
- Regulatory penalties against Korbit, including a 2.73 billion won fine in December 2025.
Key figures and next steps
The unfolding situation at Bithumb sits at the intersection of intensified regulatory scrutiny and ongoing efforts by Korean authorities to tighten AML/KYC standards across crypto platforms. The FIU’s decision, the reprimand to the CEO, and the March review collectively determine whether a concrete sanction will anchor the exchange’s near-term operations. For market participants, the episode reinforces the importance of compliance-driven risk management, especially for platforms seeking to grow in a tightly monitored environment.
Where to verify
- Official FIU statements or notices related to Bithumb’s AML/KYC assessment and any forthcoming sanctions.
- Bithumb’s public responses or press releases addressing the pre-notification stage and the potential scope of sanctions.
- Independent reporting on the February miscredit incident and its impact on internal controls and regulatory oversight.
- Regulatory actions and penalties involving Upbit (Dunamu) and Korbit, including sanction amounts and the regulatory rationale behind them.
Hyperliquid price is pushing toward a key resistance zone as rising trading volume and strengthening technical signals point to growing bullish momentum in the market.
Summary
- Hyperliquid rose to around $32 in a possible recovery attempt towards $40..
- Volume and open interest climbed, indicating new positions as traders anticipate further price movement.
- Technical indicators show strengthening momentum, with resistance sitting between $33 and $36.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) edged higher on renewed buying, with the token trading around $32.63 at press time, up 6.6% in the past 24 hours. The price has stayed within a weekly range of $29.61 to $33.33, holding near the top of that band.
Over the past year, Hyperliquid has been one of the stronger performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, gaining about 136%. Even so, it still trades roughly 45% below its September 2025 peak of $59.30.
Trading activity has picked up as well. 24-hour spot volume reached about $289 million, a 98% increase compared with the previous day, which suggests fresh interest from traders.
Derivatives markets show a similar pattern. Data from CoinGlass shows trading volume climbing 84% to $1.36 billion, while open interest rose 9.56% to $1.33 billion. This mix open often signals that new positions are being added rather than closed.
Hyperliquid fundamentals grow stronger
Beyond price action, the platform itself continues to expand. Hyperliquid now accounts for roughly 70% of decentralized perpetual futures trading volume, while daily activity on the exchange is estimated at 9.9% of the level seen on Binance.
The network has also built a sizable user base. More than 665,000 traders are active on the platform, and monthly revenue is estimated at around $116 million. According to project data, about 38% of the token supply has been set aside for future ecosystem initiatives.
New features are gradually being introduced. These include HIP-4 outcome trading and efforts to connect real-world assets to the platform.
Supply mechanics may also play a role in the token’s dynamics. Hyperliquid runs an assistance fund that periodically buys back and burns HYPE tokens. Roughly 4.17% of the supply, valued at about $1.36 billion, has already been removed through these operations, reducing the number of tokens in circulation.
Hyperliquid price technical analysis
From a technical perspective, several signals have started to lean positive. The price currently sits above the mid-Bollinger Band, which corresponds to the 20-day moving average. That area, around $29 to $30, has been acting as support in recent weeks as buyers step in during pullbacks.
Volatility also appears to be returning. The Bollinger Bands are widening after a period of compression, a setup that traders often watch for stronger moves. At the moment, the price is pushing toward the upper band in the $33 to $36 range.
Momentum indicators point in the same direction. The relative strength index is hovering in the upper-50 zone. Before the market enters overbought territory, that level usually denotes growing momentum while allowing room for growth.
The chart also shows a pattern of higher lows since the rebound in late January, with buyers continuously protecting the $29 to $30 range. This kind of structure often depicts slow accumulation.
For now, the main barrier sits between $33 and $36, where the token has struggled to move higher in recent attempts. A clear break above that zone could shift attention toward the $40 level, which many traders see as the next psychological target.
If momentum fades, the first support lies near $29.9, while a deeper support zone sits around $26 to $27.
XRP price has taken a brutal hit.
The token is down about 63% from its multi-year high and has slipped below $1.40. That drop has left more than $50.8 billion in unrealized losses in XRP, with a large portion of holders now underwater.
With price hovering near $1.35, traders are facing a big question. Is this deep pullback finally forming a market bottom, or is more downside still ahead?
The answer likely comes down to a few key levels that could decide where XRP moves next.
What the $50B Unrealized Loss Figure Actually Means for XRP Holders
On-chain data shows how heavy the pressure has become.
According to Glassnode, about 36.8 billion XRP are currently held at a loss. That puts the average holder cost around $1.44, meaning a large portion of investors are underwater while price trades below that level.
That creates an interesting dynamic. Traders sitting at a loss usually avoid selling unless support breaks and panic kicks in. But the moment price recovers near their entry, many rush to exit at break-even, turning that area into strong resistance.
At the same time, broader market pressure is not helping. XRP ETFs have seen steady outflows, including a $16.2 million redemption late last week.
With so many holders trapped and liquidity thinning, any sharp drop below current support could trigger a wave of forced selling.
Capitulation Risk: The Levels That Change Everything for XRP Price
Right now, everything revolves around a few key levels on the chart.
The biggest danger sits at $1.28. That is the monthly low XRP printed when momentum completely stalled earlier this year. If price breaks below that level, the next downside target appears near $1.11.
On the other hand, buyers have been defending the $1.31 to $1.34 zone. This area has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and helped stabilize the market during recent dips.
For sentiment to improve, XRP needs to climb back above $1.48. That level roughly matches the average cost basis for many holders, meaning a recovery there could remove some of the heavy selling pressure.
In the short term, $1.43 is the first barrier to watch. A daily close above it would suggest the market is starting to recover.
The post XRP Traders Face $50B in Unrealized Losses as Price Slips Below $1.40 appeared first on Cryptonews.
When you feed Elon Musk’s Grok AI a carefully engineered prompt, it reveals explosive price predictions for XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum.
A surge in oil prices is adding fresh macro pressure to crypto markets, but Grok predicts the mid-to-long-term outlook for the three largest cryptocurrencies remains strong.
A mix of chart signals, regulatory developments, and ongoing industry momentum appears to support Grok’s analysis.
XRP ($XRP): Grok AI Predicts a Possible 9x Surge Within 10 Months
In a recent update, Ripple reiterated that XRP ($XRP) plays a central role in establishing the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as a scalable, enterprise-grade global payments network.
Thanks to rapid transaction settlement and extremely low fees, XRPL is can get an early lead in two of major blockchain use cases: stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.
XRP is currently trading around $1.36, and Grok AI suggests the price could hit $14 during the year, delivering a tidy 10x for current HODLers.
Technical indicators reinforce the bullish outlook. XRP formed a bullish flag in recent months but has been held back by Bitcoin’s stagnation.
However, increased institutional participation following the US launch of XRP exchange-traded funds, Ripple’s expanding network of global partnerships, and possible regulatory clarity if the CLARITY Act passes Congress could all catalyze a price boom.
Bitcoin (BTC): Grok AI Says BTC Could Hit $250,000
Bitcoin ($BTC) reached a record high of $126,080 on October 6 before losing nearly half of its value during the following months.
Despite recent volatility, Grok AI says Bitcoin remains on a long-term upward trajectory, with the possibility of a price peak near $250,000 in 2026.
Often described as digital gold, Bitcoin continues attracting both investors who seek diversification and hedging against inflation and broader economic uncertainty.
At present, Bitcoin accounts for roughly $1.4 trillion of the $2.4 trillion cryptocurrency market. Its recent decline occurred after the US escalated rhetoric against Iran and Greenland, but it appears to have shaken off the effects of the US/Iran war.
Additionally, if Donald Trump follows through on proposals to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Grok’s bull case becomes highly feasible.
Ethereum (ETH): Grok AI Sees an Eye-Watering $15,000 Price Target
Ethereum ($ETH) is the dominant smart contract platform, serving as the core infrastructure of decentralized finance.
With a market capitalization close to $244 billion and around $56 billion locked on chain, Ethereum is the primary settlement layer for on-chain financial applications.
Its strong security, leadership within the stablecoin sector, and early expansion into real-world asset tokenization position Ethereum well for broader institutional adoption.
However, growth depends on regulatory developments. Approval of the CLARITY Act in the United States could deliver the legal certainty many institutions need to deploy capital on Ethereum.
ETH is currently trading just above $2,000. Major resistance is expected around the $5,000 level, near its previous all-time high of $4,946.05 recorded last August.
If Ethereum decisively breaks $5,000, Grok’s model suggests a 6.5x run to $15,000.
Maxi Doge: Early-Stage Meme Coin Aiming for Major Gains
If XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum follow Grok’s calculations, then the ensuing meme season could top the halcyon days of 2021.
One meme coin is being hotly touted as next season’s BONK or WIF. Maxi Doge ($MAXI) has already raised $4.7 million ahead of launch as investors are drawn to its magnetic marketing and viral potential.
Maxi Doge is Dogecoin’s bigger, badder, degenerate gym bro cousin, channeling the comic culture that defined meme coin mania in 2021.
Built as an ERC-20 token on Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network, MAXI also has a significantly smaller environmental footprint compared with Dogecoin’s proof-of-work mining system.
Presale investors can currently stake MAXI tokens for yields of 67% APY, although rewards decline as more tokens enter the staking pool.
The token is $0.0002807 during the current presale phase, with automatic price increases scheduled as the project hits funding milestones.
Investors interested in purchasing MAXI can visit the Maxi Doge official website and connect a compatible wallet such as Best Wallet.
Stay updated through Maxi Doge’s official X and Telegram pages.
Visit the Official Maxi Doge Website Here
The post Elon’s Grok AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Bitcoin and Ethereum by The End of 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.
The S&P 500 Index and VOO, its biggest exchange-traded fund, plunged for three consecutive days, reaching its lowest level since November last year.
Summary
- The S&P 500 Index continued its strong downward trend.
- JPMorgan analysts expect the index to continue falling this month.
- The index may still rebound later this year if Donald Trump capitulates on his war.
The blue-chip index, which tracks the biggest companies in the United States, dropped to $6,637, down by over 5.2% from its highest point this year.
This retreat happened as the crisis in the Middle East escalated, pushing crude oil prices to the highest point in years. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate rose to over $115 before paring back the gains.
The rising crude oil prices pushed US bond yields higher, with the 10-year rising to 4.17% and the 30-year hitting 4.766%. This surge is a sign that market participants expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish tone this year.
JPMorgan predicts a S&P 500 Index crash
Wall Street analysts are getting antsy about the market. In a research note, analysts at JPMorgan predicted that the index will move into a correction if the war continues.
Dropping into a correction, which is defined as a 10% drop from its peak, will push it to $6,300, its lowest level since August last year.
However, the analyst noted that signs of an off-ramp on the war in Iran will invalidate the bearish outlook. He noted:
“A definitive off-ramp to the conflict will end this tactical call as the underlying macro fundamentals remain supportive of risk-assets.”
Similarly, Yardeni, a top research company, boosted its odds of a market meltdown to 35% from the previous 20%.
Still, as we wrote earlier, there is a possibility that the S&P 500 and VOO stock will bounce back as President Donald Trump often pays close attention to the stock market and inflation. As such, there is a possibility that he will start to capitulate soon.
Looking ahead, the S&P 500 Index will react to the upcoming US consumer inflation report, which will come out on Wednesday.
Economists expect the report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index rose to 2.5% in February. A higher inflation than that, coupled with the rising oil prices, may also push Trump to capitulate on his war.
The index will also react to the upcoming Oracle earnings, which will come out on Tuesday. Oracle has become a major player in the artificial intelligence industry thanks to its huge backlog.
Aon, one of the world’s largest insurance brokers, is testing the use of stablecoins to pay insurance premiums, highlighting the growing role of digital dollars in traditional financial infrastructure following the passage of the GENIUS bill last year.
In a Monday announcement, UK-based Aon said it completed a pilot that settled insurance premiums for clients, including Coinbase and Paxos, using USDC (USDC) on Ethereum and PayPal USD (PYUSD) on Solana.
Tim Fletcher, CEO of Aon’s financial services division, said the pilot reflects the company’s effort to explore stablecoins as a payment rail, predicting that tokenized assets will become more widely used in financial transactions.
Aon said in August that its analysis showed 120 re-insurers wrote nearly $2 trillion of gross written premium in 2024.
Instead of sending funds through traditional bank wires, the premiums were paid using stablecoins on blockchain networks. The pilot demonstrates how financial institutions are experimenting with blockchain settlement systems rather than relying solely on conventional payment infrastructure.
The approach could have implications for the insurance industry, where premium payments typically move through banks, clearing systems and international wire transfers — processes that can take several days, particularly for cross-border transactions. Stablecoin transfers can settle within minutes.
The pilot did not involve a new insurance product or an onchain policy. The underlying insurance coverage remained unchanged, with the only difference being the use of stablecoins to settle the premium payments.
Related: SoFi taps BitGo to provide infrastructure for bank-issued stablecoin
Stablecoins gain traction among financial institutions
Aon’s pilot also comes amid a more supportive regulatory backdrop for stablecoins following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which established a federal framework for issuing and supervising dollar-backed stablecoins in the United States.
The development reflects a broader shift as traditional financial institutions increasingly explore stablecoins for payments and settlement infrastructure. Several major banks, including Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, are either confirmed or reported to be in various stages of developing stablecoin or tokenized payment systems.
At the same time, crypto-native companies are expanding into the stablecoin payments stack. For example, Ripple has been building infrastructure aimed at supporting stablecoin custody, settlement and treasury management for institutions.
Related: US regulator mulls guidance for tokenized deposit insurance, stablecoins
Fairshake, the political action committee backed by crypto companies Ripple Labs and Coinbase, among others, has reported additional spending on Illinois congressional races with the US midterm elections less than eight months away.
In filings on Sunday with the Federal Election Commission, Fairshake reported a $16,000 media buy to oppose Illinois state representative La Shawn Ford in his run for the US Congress in 2026, adding to its roughly $1.8 million spent in 2026 on the race. The state is set to hold primary elections on March 17.
The filing followed others from Friday, showing that the PAC spent more than $5.5 million to oppose Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, who is running as a Democrat for the US Senate in the midterm elections. Protect Progress, a Fairshake associated group supporting Democratic candidates, reported about $84,000 spent to support Nikki Budzinski for her 2026 House run representing Illinois, and $90,000 for Robin Kelly’s Illinois Senate race.
Altogether, according to The Daily Northwestern, the PAC and its associated groups have poured about $8.6 million in the Illinois races, a sixfold increase over what it spent in the 2024 elections for races in Midwestern US state. The committee has a larger war chest of funds from the cryptocurrency industry and others, reporting $193 million in its coffers as of January, and has publicly stated it will “oppose anti-crypto politicians and support pro-crypto leaders” in 2026.
Related: Crypto PACs secure massive war chests ahead of US midterms
Rather than support candidates directly through campaign donations, Fairshake and its associated groups typically fund ads to support or oppose politicians, often on issues completely unrelated to crypto policy. PACs are required to report spending and contributions to the Federal Election Commission.
Potentially influencing Texas primaries?
Fairshake has already made moves in 2026 for some of the early state primaries ahead of the midterm elections.
Last week, residents in North Carolina, Texas and Arkansas voted on some of the first candidates to be decided for the general election. Protect Progress reportedly spend $1.5 million opposing the reelection of Texas Representative Al Green, who has served in Congress since 2005.
While Democrat Christian Menefee, whom the advocacy organization Stand With Crypto rates as “strongly supports crypto,” did not win outright against Green, both candidates will head to a runoff in May.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
Bitcoin ETF flows have shifted into positive territory over the last 30 days, even as gold ETF demand shows signs of fatigue after a prolonged rally. In the latest data pulse, bitcoin-focused funds logged a net inflow of $273 million on March 6 after a $1.9 billion outflow in February, while GLD—the largest US gold-backed ETF—saw a substantial one-day withdrawal that underscores a potential rotation in investor appetite. The backdrop is nuanced: gold prices have remained elevated, yet momentum appears to be cooling, while bitcoin demand shows resilience that could presage a broader reallocation within risk assets.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin ETFs posted a 30-day net inflow of $273 million on March 6 after a $1.9 billion outflow in February, signaling renewed interest from what some observers call a risk-on cohort.
- Gold ETFs experienced a marked reversal, with GLD recording a $3 billion outflow on a single day—the largest in more than two years—after a longer streak of inflows totaling roughly $24 billion across January and February.
- Holdings shifted in native units: bitcoin ETF positions rose by about 4,021 BTC on March 6, while gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to roughly 621,100 ounces during the same window.
- Analysts point to a potential rotation from gold toward bitcoin as risk sentiment improves and the macro backdrop remains uncertain, though the timing of any sustained shift remains uncertain.
- Longer-term context from Fidelity suggests gold’s leadership cycle may be peaking, potentially opening room for bitcoin to take the lead in the coming quarters, in line with historical cross-asset dynamics between the two stores of value.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $GLD
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. While flows point toward a possible rotation, there is no clear, immediate price move indicated by the data.
Market context: The flows sit within a broader pattern of ETF activity shaping crypto and precious metals markets as risk sentiment oscillates and liquidity conditions shift. The bitcoin-related inflows come as gold’s rally cools after a strong start to the year, illustrating how investors are reallocating capital across alternative stores of value in a fluctuating macro environment.
Why it matters
Across mainstream markets, exchange-traded funds provide a surprisingly transparent lens into the evolving sentiment of large participants—often illustrating where capital is seeking safety, exposure, or hedges against inflation and geopolitical risks. The latest divergence between bitcoin and gold ETF flows adds a new chapter to the long-running debate over which store of value may lead in a given cycle. The near-term implication is a potential shift in demand dynamics: as gold’s momentum wanes from its January–February surge, bitcoin could begin to attract fresh buyers seeking upside leverage to a risk-on environment.
On the holdings side, the shift is tangible. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net increase of more than 4,000 coins in a single day, contrasting with a sharp decline in gold holdings over the same period. The data, drawn from native-asset balances rather than dollar-denominated valuations, give a clearer picture of actual accumulation versus distribution. These internal flows can be early signals that price action might follow as new entrants accumulate positions or exit as conditions change. The contrast between the two assets is notable, given their historically divergent performance during different macro regimes and risk cycles.
Market observers have tied the trend to a broader rotation from “safe-haven” assets toward instruments that offer growth exposure or diversification benefits in an improving risk environment. Joe Consorti, head of growth at Horizon, highlighted the possibility that gold’s leadership phase could be nearing its late-stage, with bitcoin poised to surge if the macro backdrop supports a continued risk-on tilt. He encapsulated the view succinctly: “Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold’s % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”
Further context comes from a 2026 outlook published by Fidelity Digital Assets. The firm noted gold’s 65% return in 2025—the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard—arguing that gold could be near the late phase of its leadership cycle. The takeaway echoed by Fidelity is that the two assets have historically taken turns leading, suggesting that bitcoin could take the baton next if the cycle continues to evolve. This historical pattern adds a framework for investors assessing whether the current rotation is a temporary pause or the start of a more durable shift in cross-asset leadership.
What to watch next
- Next 30-day ETF flow data for bitcoin and gold to confirm whether the inflow streak for BTC persists and whether GLD continues to underperform relative to its peers.
- Price action around bitcoin and gold in the wake of any macro data releases that influence risk sentiment, including inflation and growth metrics.
- Monitoring holdings updates for major bitcoin and gold ETFs to verify ongoing accumulation or distribution in native units.
- Geopolitical developments and policy signals that could reintroduce risk-off dynamics or re-ignite appetite for safe havens.
- Industry commentary and analysis from market watchers and asset managers regarding the timing and durability of any rotation between gold and bitcoin.
Sources & verification
- Kobeissi Letter post detailing GLD’s $3 billion outflow and the context of gold’s price decline.
- bold.report flow data showing the 30-day net flow shift for bitcoin ETFs and the December–February momentum for gold ETFs.
- Joe Consorti, Horizon, discussion on bitcoin’s relative strength and potential rotation dynamics, as cited in social posts.
- Fidelity Digital Assets, 2026 Look Ahead report outlining gold’s prior rally, leadership-cycle considerations, and cross-asset dynamics with bitcoin.
- TradingView BTCXAU ratio analysis and related market commentary illustrating how the BTC-to-gold relationship has evolved in recent cycles.
ETF flows hint at Bitcoin-led rotation vs gold
Bitcoin ETF inflows and gold ETF outflows over the past month point to a nuanced shift in investment behavior that could have implications for both assets in the near term. On the one hand, bitcoin funds saw a notable positive swing, with a March 6 inflow of $273 million following a February outflow of $1.9 billion. On the other hand, GLD reversed a long period of inflows, registering a $3 billion one-day withdrawal that marked a stark departure from January’s and February’s robust cash-hauls. The divergence is telling: as gold’s price pullback and consolidation emerged, bitcoin buyers appeared to be re-entering the market, potentially signaling a rotation in the broader risk spectrum.
Holdings data reinforce the narrative. In native units, bitcoin ETF positions rose by about 4,021 BTC on March 6, a clear counterpoint to the gold side where holdings slid from 1.4 million ounces down to roughly 621,100 ounces in the same interval. By focusing on native asset balances rather than dollar valuations, analysts can better gauge genuine accumulation versus mere price-driven valuation changes. This distinction is essential for understanding whether flows translate into meaningful demand that could support higher prices over time.
Analysts have framed the shift within a larger macro tapestry. The idea of a rotation from gold into bitcoin is not new, but recent data adds a degree of plausibility to such a transition—especially if risk appetite improves alongside a cautiously optimistic macro backdrop. The commentary from Horizon’s Joe Consorti emphasizes that the pivot could be underway as market participants reassess the relative appeal of traditional safe-havens against digital stores of value with expected growth characteristics. Fidelity’s outlook provides complementary context, suggesting that the cycles between gold and bitcoin have historically oscillated, with each asset taking turns leading at different phases of monetary and geopolitical stress.
As the market continues to digest these cross-asset dynamics, investors will be watching for confirmatory signs—both in flows and in price action—that the rotation, if it is indeed forming, gains momentum. The 2025 performance of gold—an impressive 65% return—has already shaped expectations about when bitcoin might reassert leadership. The current data do not definitively settle the question, but they do underscore the importance of watching ETF flows as a real-time proxy for investor preferences in a landscape where macro uncertainty and liquidity conditions remain pivotal drivers of asset allocation.
Key takeaways:
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Oil price spikes often precede 20% spikes in Bitcoin value, though initial market reactions remain volatile and unpredictable.
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Bitcoin currently mirrors tech stocks with an 81% Nasdaq 100 correlation, making it less sensitive to oil prices.
Oil prices surged to $101 per barrel on Sunday, marking a 55% increase in ten days—the largest move in history. The event caused the SPX to reach its lowest level in 10 weeks on Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) saw an initial positive reaction with prices jumping 16% between Feb. 28 and Wednesday, though it eventually erased the entire move by Sunday.
Traders now question whether Bitcoin price could suffer from the uncertainty brought by the US-Israel war with Iran. Persistently high oil prices could trigger inflation and hurt consumer spending while the US job market remains weak. Bitcoin price has benefited from sudden jumps in oil prices in the past, but the gains usually happen over a four-week period.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices surged by 15% in a week starting on June 11, 2025, after global agencies assessed that Iran had enriched uranium nuclear warheads and Israel launched air strikes in the region two days later. Initially, Bitcoin price declined by 8% to $101,000 from $110,300, but it ended up reverting the move and posted 10% gains in four weeks.
On March 27, 2023, WTI prices jumped by 16% in eight days, fueled by a legal dispute leading to 450,000 barrels per day in exports from Kurdistan and a surprise production cut from OPEC. Bitcoin price gained 12% in two weeks but failed to sustain the bullish momentum, returning to the initial $28,000 level in less than a month.
A 29% weekly rally in WTI oil prices initiated on Feb. 28, 2022, following the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, triggered global sanctions on Russian oil exports. Bitcoin prices jumped 17% over the initial two days, but those gains evaporated by the end of the week. Still, Bitcoin price eventually surged by 25% over the next three weeks as its price reached $48,000.
WTI gained 23% in nine days starting on Nov. 2, 2020, as traders anticipated the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and US oil inventories showed unexpected drops. Bitcoin price followed the trend, gaining 16% during that nine-day window, eventually seeing 45% gains from the initial $13,500 price in under a month.
Related: Oil retreats from 25% surge as G7 weighs emergency reserve release
Bitcoin may reach $79,200 by the end of March if history repeats itself
On average, Bitcoin gained 20% over four weeks during the last four times WTI jumped by 15% or more within 10 days. These instances happened between November 2020 and June 2025, a period that includes the bear market of 2022 and most of 2023. Still, four events are not statistically significant enough to prove a solid correlation.
Bitcoin’s price has been much more closely tied to the tech sector lately, shown by its current 81% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index. If Iran or the US de-escalate sooner than expected, the stock market may recover, and Bitcoin should benefit from that bullish momentum.
Ultimately, the duration of the war in Iran will decide if a Bitcoin rally to $79,200 is possible by the end of March. That target would match the historical 20% average gain from the $66,000 price seen since the oil rally picked up steam on Feb. 28.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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